This week is the same as all of the others for our individual defensive player projections.
I’m not going to tell you they are super accurate. I haven’t studied the injury report, as you can tell by Chris Borland‘s place among the top-5. Borland, who has been outstanding as Patrick Willis‘ injury replacement, has a bum ankle and won’t play this week.
But here’s the deal with IDPs typically the backups aren’t miles worse than the starters. Maybe they won’t make as many chance plays — like interceptions, fumble recoveries, etc. — but the tackle volume is still usually funneled through the same players in the system. Tackles, of course, are the backbone of IDP scoring.
That’s why I make tackles worth 2.2 points in the fantasy calculation. Typically they’re only worth 1, but because they are so important to week-to-week value and are easier to predict, I feel like making them a premium is best.
These projections are calculated using team offense vs. defense averages then distributed based on player season statistics — if player is responsible for a high number of his teams pass deflections, chances are he’s going to be the most likely to accumulate them this week as well.
So, use these projections. If you see a player who is questionable or out, consider using his backup if you don’t’ have another option.