A few weeks ago I asked around to see if anyone wanted to put together a list of players that perplexed them, Speedy turned it into a full post that everyone should check out.
The whole thing got me thinking that the players I was perplexed about, I was also avoiding like they were showing signs of some unknown infectious disease. They scare me. I’ve been sidestepping them since my first mock draft.
Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants — I strongly disapprove of picking pitchers early and Lincecum will be No. 1 or No. 2 off the board. That’s a high pick for someone who won’t realistically be able to match his performance from last season, especially not after he Francisco Liriano’s himself and ends up on the DL.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays — Yes, he was a top prospect, but Longoria’s got one good season under his belt. He’s going near the top of every draft and he’ll produce like 3B getting picked several tiers below him.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox — Everyone’s jacking up his stats from last season, there’s even some projections saying he’ll approach 15 homers. Craziness. He didn’t even score 100 runs last year while Pedroia and Youkilis had career years batting behind him. His numbers will stay the same. That means he’ll help your runs, your steals and give you a .280 batting average. That’s less value than even an overrated Ichiro Suzuki, but several picks higher than the Seattle star.
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays — His spring is a sign of things to come. He got injured. He always gets injured. And if you don’t check your stats regularly, Wells’ days of double-digit steals are over.
Joba Chamberlain, SP, Yankees — The Yanks are going to limit Joba’s innings, and before the American League gets away from them, they’ll move him back to the bullpen. He’s a great talent, it’s the situation he’s in that scares me.
Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox — He’ll limit his innings himself via stints on the DL.
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Red Sox and Joe Nathan, RP, Twins — If you are a super-hyped closer, you won’t appear on my roster unless you were a must-keeper from the previous season.
Do you agree with any of these? Disagree? Who did I miss? Let us know in the comments.