2016 Draft Kit

NFL Week 10 FanDuel sleepers and values

Last week, I didn’t even make it back to even. However, I was very close to a huge week.

I also feel like my lineups were all solid — compared to some of the smartest minds in the industry — they just didn’t come through with enough points in yet another huge scoring week..

I still haven’t won an NFL tournament, but I had a strong Marcus Mariota lineup last week and a strong Drew Brees lineup the week before. That tournament win is so close I can almost taste it.

And if I don’t win this week, I hope you do.

Despite the struggle last week, I still have quite a bit of confidence in our system. However it’s important to keep a few things in mind:

  1. Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 8. Only wager more if you play a lot of cash games and have found success there.
  2. Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.

OK, let’s get to this weeks sleepers and values at FanDuel.

Week 10 final UPDATED rankings: QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, K, D/ST | Early rankings
Best matchups, best games/LasVegas | Game day weather | Waiver wire
Week 10 daily fantasy: Draft Kings sleepers | FanDuel sleepers
All Week 10 advice | All Week 9 advice | Preseason | DVOA preseason Strength of schedule

Quarterbacks

Early rankings | Final rankings

Kirk Cousins, $6,500, WAS vs. NO — This is one of the big calls I made in our projected scores/Las Vegas post. Cousins could pay huge dividends at QB in GPPs this week. It’s a great matchup for his favorite target, TE Jordan Reed.

Andy Dalton, $8,100, CIN vs. HOU — You know what I said about being worth more than the penny we’re paying, Dalton’s been that player all season. He has killer weapons in A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard.

Derek Carr, $7,500, OAK vs. MIN — On Wednesday, I called for this to turn into a sneaky shootout if Teddy Bridgwater plays. Carr-to-Amari Cooper should be in full effect against one of the most effective defenses in the NFL against No. 1 wide receivers.

Blake Bortles, $7,800, JAC at BAL — Baltimore is fourth-worst in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA and Bortles has a superstar-in-the-making receiver in Allen Robinson to throw to and the Jaguars signal-caller costs $3,000 — THOUSAND — less than Tom Brady.

Drew Brees, $8,600, NO at WAS — DVOA says this is a plus matchup, but there are a handful of guys on this list with better matchups. So why, then, ep, do we have an $8,600 quarterback on our values list? Brees has been beasting — even running in a touchdown last week.

Tom Brady, $9,100, NE at NYG — You thought Tom Brady was expensive at Draft Kings? This week, against a poor Giants passing defense, he’ll likely be worth every penny. However, I’ll be paying down for some of the other values on this list who should be worth more than every penny.

Running backs

Early rankings | Final rankings

Mark Ingram, $7,500, NO at WAS — Ingram had a pile of touches last week, he just didn’t get into the end zone. Big bounce back here in the projected second-highest scoring game of the week.

DeAngelo Williams, $7,600, PIT vs. CLE — You play running backs playing against Cleveland, especially when that running back is such a huge part of the offense like Williams is supposed to be. I’m going to have to consider him, but I’m pumping the brakes a bit because of his price.

Lamar Miller, $7,200, MIA at PHI — Like Williams, Miller’s usage is so high we have to consider him each week. However, Philadelphia’s defense is better than a lot of people think. I’ll probably limit my exposure to Miller, but I definitely won’t ignore him.

Darren McFadden, $7,000, DAL at TB — This is another not-great matchup for McFadden but — you’ve heard this before — his usage is so high we have to consider him. He’s the lowest-priced of these $7,000-ish running backs, which makes him my favorite.

Todd Gurley, $9,200, STL vs. CHI — Gurley is the most expensive running back on the board this week, but he went big again last week in a bad matchup. Now he gets the Bears who are second-worst in the NFL against the run according to DVOA. The only bad thing about Gurley is that there’s no surprise here. His price is so high at FanDuel, playing him may be a contrarian play with a supreme matchup.

DeMarco Murray, $7,700, PHI vs. MIA — Miami is fourth-worst in the NFL against the run, according to DVOA. Since that horrible start, Murray has averaged 19.5 carries, 85 yards and .75 touchdowns over the last four games. This could be a huge spot for Murray.

Justin Forsett, $7,100, BAL vs. JAC — The Jaguars are second in the NFL against the run according to DVOA but fourth-worst against the pass. That’s a situation where the defense forces teams to beat them through the air. But fantasy points allowed tells a bit different story. The Jaguars have allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs, including three multi-touchdown games.

Giovani Bernard, $6,300, CIN vs. HOU — The Texans allow 48 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Bernard has only one game all season with less than 62 total yards. He’s averaging 57 yards rushing per game and three catches per game.

LeGarrette Blount, $6,900, NE at NYG — Dion Lewis’ injury probably won’t affect Blount much, but he’s always a threat to score three touchdown as long as the Patriots are a threat to score 30 points. He’s a tournament-only play for me.

James Starks, $6,000, GB vs. DET — It’s a big week for Rodgers as mentioned above, but it also could be a great spot for Starks. The Lions are fourth-worst in the NFL against the run. Of course, one of the big concerns here is the amount of usage Eddie Lacy is going to get. He’s still going to get carries. However, Starks’ price makes him a player we must consider in tournaments.

Doug Martin, $6,700, TB vs. DAL — Martin has been a disappointment for a couple weeks of the year. He’s not someone to consider for cash games, but he could bounce back — at very low ownership — against a Cowboys defense that’s sixth-worst in the NFL against the run, according to DVOA.

Shane Vereen, $5,800, NYG vs. NE — Vereen can be an explosive player. The Patriots are a tough matchup against the run, but they are middle-of-the-road against pass-catching running backs. It’s also a revenge game for Vereen, who should get a few more opportunities than usual as the Giants throw from behind in the highest-scoring game of the week.

Marshawn Lynch, $8,000, SEA vs. ARI — This is another tournament consideration play. This is a tough matchup for players on both teams, but Lynch is the one player on either team that I could totally see getting all of his team’s touchdowns, especially at home, where the Seahawks always play better.

Wide receivers

Early rankings | Final rankings

Allen Robinson, $7,500, JAC at BAL — Everyone is on Allen Robinson this week against a struggling Ravens defense and they should be.

Alshon Jeffery, $7,600, CHI at STL — St. Louis is a tough defense, especially against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers. Jeffery, however, has returned to elite status but his price is still only $7,100. I’ll have him in tournaments, but that matchup pushes him out of my cash lineups.

Julian Edelman, $8,000, NE at NYG — Like Kansas City, the Giants are poor against No. 1 wide receivers, allowing 88.6 yards per game, fifth-most in the NFL. Edelman costs $200 less at FanDuel than at Draft Kings, where he is also a value this week. That’s huge considering FanDuel prices are usually a bit higher than Draft Kings’

Demaryius Thomas, $7,900, DEN vs. KC — The Chiefs have allowed 96 passing yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, fourth-most in the NFL.

Amari Cooper, $7,100, OAK vs. MIN — Cooper was just outside of our top value plays at Draft Kings. Like I said in the Edelman blurb, FanDuel prices are usually higher — their minimum is $4,500 while Draft Kings’ is $3,000. However, Cooper is only $300 more at FanDuel. It’s also a huge spot for his quarterback.

Michael Crabtree, $6,400, OAK vs. MIN — Has 20 catches, 207 yards and four touchdowns combined in the last three weeks. That’s massive. Cooper is a great play, too, but Crabtree has been as good or better and he costs less. It’s not as huge a gap as we get at Draft Kings, but it’s still $700.

Jarvis Landry, $7,000, MIA at PHI — The Eagles defense is a little better than it gets credit for, however it allows 100.4 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, third-most in the NFL. Landry is also a PPR machine, which isn’t as good at FanDuel, but the site still does award a half point per reception.

Stefon Diggs, $6,600, MIN at OAK — Oakland can’t stop any receiver types, but they’ve allowed the second-most passing yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers. He’s also getting piles of targets. All of that coupled with this price makes him almost a must-play in both cash and tournaments.

Nate Washington, $5,200, HOU at CIN — Washington’s value dips a bit this week with the return of Cecil Shorts, however he should remain involved in an offense that will throw a lot with Arian Foster out for the season. Big salary relief is tough to find at FanDuel and Washington offers it.

Kamar Aiken, $5,400, BAL vs. JAC — I can’t really get behind recommending Aiken, but he is the No. 1 wide receiver on a team that should be chucking the ball quite a bit against the Jaguars. His price is also third-lowest among wide receivers on this values list.

Marvin Jones, $5,400, CIN vs. HOU — The Texans have been stingy against No. 1 wide receivers but they’ve allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to No. 2 wide receivers. Jones is a big play waiting to happen. Combine those two things and you have a nice, probably low-owned player to stack with Andy Dalton this week.

Chris Givens, $4,500, BAL vs. JAC — The former had 59 yards on just three catches in Week 8, now he’s listed as the starter across from Kamar Aiken. Givens has a much higher floor and a lower ceiling than Aiken. That makes him a tournament-only play, but considering the matchup it could pay off this week.

DeAndre Hopkins, $8,900, HOU at CIN — It’s not a great matchup for Hopkins and his price should make people apprehensive. However, Hopkins is going to get a ton of targets like he does every week and he may have a little more room to move with Cecil Shorts returning this week.

Tight ends

Early rankings | Final rankings

Jordan Reed, $5,800, WAS vs. NO — New Orleans allows 77.8 yards receiving to opposing tight ends, second-most in the NFL. I’m going to have to force myself to play a couple other tight ends this week because I’ll have Reed everywhere.

Martellus Bennett, $5,400, CHI at STL — The Rams have been strong against all receiver types, but where they shut down WR1s, they are more middle-of-the-road against TEs. Bennett is one of Jay Cutler’s favorite targets and his price is so depressed at FanDuel he must be considered in all formats.

Greg Olsen, $6,300, CAR at TEN — I don’t really want any part of the Panthers passing offense this week. And Olsen is super expensive compared to most of the other players on this list. However, the Panthers are expected to score 24 points this week, tied for ninth-most in the NFL. We have to figure Olsen gets into the end zone at least once and I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored all three Panthers TDs in this game.

Kyle Rudolph, $4,700, MIN at OAK — Rudolph hasn’t been greatly involved with the offense so far this season, however we all know the Raiders are terrible against the tight end so this might be the spot where Rudolph breaks out. Considering his near-basement price and this matchup, Rudolph has to be a tournament consideration.

Benjamin Watson, $5,500, NO at WAS — Watson is a key contributor on one of the best passing offenses in the NFL. His salary isn’t as enticing on FanDuel as it is on Draft Kings, but it’s still a potential massive value.

Rob Gronkowski, $8,000, NE at NYG — Gronk disappointed last week. However, this week he gets the worst TE defense in the NFL. The Patriots have to feed it to him this week. Gronk is the same price at FanDuel as he is at Draft Kings. But as I said above, FanDuel prices are usually a little higher, which means Gronk presents a better value at FanDuel this week.

Defenses

Early rankings | Final rankings

Denver Broncos, $5,200, vs. KC

Carolina Panthers, $4,700, at TEN

Green Bay Packers, $4,900, vs. DET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,000, vs. DAL

Philadelphia Eagles, $4,700, vs. MIA

Arizona Cardinals, $4,700, at SEA





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