Last week, I went against my initial intention to dial things back and played a few more games than usual.
As you know, the chalk players hit and it paid off for me. I won back all the money I lost the previous week. This week we have more great matchups and prices, so I suspect I’ll have a few more games than usual — mostly cash, mind you, I don’t like throwing money away.
Draft Kings continues its Millionaire Maker again this week. You can click the graphic below to get there and it let’s Draft Kings know we’re relevant:
My confidence continues to grow in our system, however it’s important to keep a few things in mind:
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 8. Only wager more if you play a lot of cash games and have found success there.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
OK, let’s get to this weeks sleepers and values at Draft Kings.
Philip Rivers, $6,000, SD at BAL — Last week, I had Carson Palmer ahead of Rivers but ended up having considerably more Rivers lineups. The Chargers defense doesn’t really keep games close and the Chargers don’t have a running game, so that means Rivers will keep chucking it.
Andy Dalton, $6,000, CIN at PIT — Dalton and Rivers at the same low price is nice. I might split my cash lineups 50/50 between them. They both have great matchups and could potentially end up in shootouts.
Carson Palmer, $7,000, ARI at CLE — I’m probably not going to use a ton of Carson Palmer this week. I can save $1,000 and get one of the two guys above. However, Palmer still does represent an excellent value. If you’re gut grumbles “play Palmer,” don’t fight it.
Matthew Stafford, $5,800, DET at KC — I’m going to have some Stafford lineups in tournaments. He should be a sneaky play and because it’s the London game that starts at 9:30 a.m., there won’t be as many people on him.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, $5,200, NYJ at OAK — Fitzpatrick has a pair of elite receivers and he’s proven he can put up fantasy numbers this season. He may be limited this week because the Jets defense should be able to really disrupt Oakland.
Jay Cutler, $5,200, CHI vs. MIN — Cutler is our only home quarterback out of the bunch. His two favorite passing targets — WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Martellus Bennett have excellent matchups this week.
Todd Gurley, $6,300, STL vs. SF — Get aboard the Gurley train again this week against the train wreck that is the San Francisco 49ers.
Devonta Freeman, $8,000, ATL vs. TB — Freeman is the second most expensive running back on the board this week and he doesn’t have a great matchup. However, Freeman is getting so many touches he’s still expected to put up a whopper of a game.
Danny Woodhead, $4,500, SD at BAL — Baltimore has allowed 52.8 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Short passes to Woodhead are the Chargers running game.
Justin Forsett, $6,100, BAL vs. SD — My initial lineups had a lot of Gurley and Justin Forsett pairings. They are both priced below $6,500. Excellent matchups and prices. That’s what you want in cash games. However, they’ll probably both be owned quite a bit so they may not be the best option in tournaments.
Le’Veon Bell, $8,300, PIT vs. CIN — Bell is the most expensive back on the board and with the return of Ben Roethlisberger he’ll probably be worth it this week. It also doesn’t hurt that the Bengals allow 7.8 pass attempts and 57 receiving yards per game to enemy running backs.
Matt Forte, $7,300, CHI vs. MIN — Forte represents a good tournament play this week. If people are going to pay for a running back they’ll probably get Bell or Freeman. Forte is as important to his offense as either of those backs. The Vikings are sixth-worst in the NFL at defending the run, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
Doug Martin, $5,500, TB at ATL — The Falcons allow 72.7 receiving yards per game to enemy running backs. Martin has been a dual threat this year in his resurgence. This could be a huge spot for a running back who has been playing like he should be priced in Forte’s range.
Giovani Bernard, $4,800, CIN at PIT — The Steelers have been tough against the run, but if this turns into a shootout like many expect, Bernard will get a lot of targets out of the backfield.
Chris Johnson, $4,600, ARI at CLE — The Browns are the worst team in the NFL at stopping the run. Arizona’s defense should be able to keep Cleveland’s offense in check, which means Johnson could have a big game locking this thing down late.
Adrian Peterson, $7,400, MIN at CHI — Like Forte, Peterson is an offensive focal point at nearly $1,000 less than the top priced guys. Chicago is fourth-worst in the NFL against the run, according to DVOA.
Darren McFadden, $3,800, DAL vs. SEA — Facing Seattle is a tough spot for any running back. However, the Seahawks usually aren’t quite as potent on the road. Joe Randle has gone off the deep end and won’t be active. After Randle got hurt last week, the Cowboys fed McFadden. Even if the game gets out of hand, McFadden is the third-down back and should benefit in Draft Kings’ PPR format.
Julio Jones, $9,200, ATL vs. TB — As I’ve said a number of times our sleepers and values are created using a number of formulas. If it says Julio Jones is worth the most expensive salary in the game this week, then we should consider paying it.
DeAndre Hopkins, $8,700, HOU vs. TEN — Hopkins should be lesser owned after his disappointment last week, however, he’s still going to get a pile of targets, especially with Arian Foster done for the season and Cecil Shorts inactive again.
Antonio Brown, $7,800, PIT vs. CIN — Ben Roethlisberger returns this week which means we may not see Brown at this low a price for the rest of the season.
Alshon Jeffery, $6,400, CHI vs. MIN — Like I said above in the Cutler blurb, this is a huge plus matchup for Jeffery. He’s also priced $1,500 less than he probably should be.
Eric Decker, $5,300, NYJ at OAK — Speaking of players priced well below what their recent performances have been worth, Decker presents an excellent value. We also need to consider him because the Raiders have allowed 67 passing yards per game to No. 2 receivers, one of the highest totals in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs, $4,800, MIN at CHI — Diggs is in a good spot, is the Vikings No. 1 wide receiver and he’s still only $4,800. What are you waiting for? Get him in all of your cash game lineups.
Martavis Bryant, $5,300, PIT vs. CIN — Bryant isn’t in the cash game conversation yet. I still consider him a big-play type. However, with the return of Ben Roethlisberger we may have to reconsider. I’m very excited to see how this offense operates this week.
Keenan Allen, $7,700, SD at BAL — Allen is getting all of the targets and catches and yards and yet he’s priced $1,500 less than Julio Jones. The Chargers have more potential mouths to feed than the Falcons, but so far Allen has feasted.
Steve Smith Sr., $6,100, BAL vs. SD — DVOA says the Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but they’ve haven’t been flumoxed by any wide receivers so far this season. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes this week against Smith. Are formula says it will.
Brandon Marshall, $7,600, NYJ at OAK — Having both Jets receivers on this list is the reason why Ryan Fitzpatrick was listed above. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a Fitzpatrick-Decker-Marshall lineups wins someone some big money this week.
Calvin Johnson, $7,900, DET at KC — Over the last two weeks Johnson has looked like Megatron again, converting 11 of 16 targets for 252 yards and two touchdowns.
A.J. Green, $7,600, CIN at PIT — As I’ve said a couple times in this post, I suspect this game will turn into a shootout. That means Dalton will have a big game. If Dalton has a big game it’ll likely also mean great things for Green.
Mike Evans, $6,800, TB at ATL — Coming off his monstrous 8-164-1 line last week, Evans gets to face the Falcons, who have allowed the third-most yards (87.6) to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Oh, and Vincent Jackson is unlikely to play so Evans might see all the targets.
Steve Johnson, $3,200, SD at BAL — This is the only real super value on the board. Johnson saw eight targets last week. If he gets that against the Ravens, who have allowed the third-most receiving yards (77) to No. 2 wide receivers, this could be a huge week.
Eric Ebron, $3,100, DET at KC — In just five games, Ebron has scored three touchdowns and has been targeted at least five times in four of the five games. There is absolutely no way his price should be $3,100.
Delanie Walker, $4,100, TEN at HOU — Walker’s targets in his last four games: 10, 6, 10, 9. Despite that he doesn’t have a touchdown or a 100-yard game over that stretch. Something has to give.
Martellus Bennett, $4,900 CHI vs. MIN — The Vikings have allowed 65.8 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Bennett leads the Bears in receptions, targets, yards, receiving touchdowns and receiving first downs.
Gary Barnidge, $4,700, CLE vs. ARI — I’m not 100% sold on this ranking considering he’s facing the Cardinals defense this week. That makes Barnidge a tournament play for me.
Ladarius Green, $3,000, SD at BAL — The Ravens have been pretty stingy against tight ends so far this season, but the Chargers offense is too pass-heavy to allow one of it’s primary components to go unrostered at just $3,000.
Greg Olsen, $6,500, CAR vs. IND — Our most expensive tight end not named Gronk has a plus matchup this week. Indianapolis allows 62.4 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
Travis Kelce, $5,000, KC vs. DET — If Olsen was priced here he’d probably be our top TE play this week. Detroit isn’t as great a matchup, but they have allowed 51 yards per game to tight ends.
Tyler Eifert, $5,300, CIN at PIT — Pittsburgh has been gouged by opposing No. 2 wide receivers and tight ends this season. Eifert is second on the Bengals in catches, targets and receiving yards, but his six touchdowns are twice as many as the next player. He’ll probably increase that touchdown lead this week.
Crockett Gillmore, $2,500, BAL vs. SD — Gillmore has received six and seven targets the last two weeks. Last week he turned the seven into five catches for 53 yards. That’s way too much usage for a player with his price, even if the matchup isn’t great.
St. Louis Rams, $3,200 vs. SF
Tennessee Titans, $2,500 at HOU
Seattle Seahawks, $3,700, at DAL
San Francisco 49ers, $2,100, at STL
New York Jets, $2,900, at OAK
New Orleans Saints, $2,000, vs. NYG