Last week, I went against my initial intention to dial things back and played a few more games than usual.
As you know, the chalk players hit and it paid off for me. I won back all the money I lost the previous week. This week we have more great matchups and prices, so I suspect I’ll have a few more games than usual — mostly cash, mind you, I don’t like throwing money away.
My confidence continues to grow in our system, however it’s important to keep a few things in mind:
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 8. Only wager more if you play a lot of cash games and have found success there.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
OK, let’s get to this weeks sleepers and values at FanDuel.
Carson Palmer, $8,100, ARI at CLE — Quarterbacks are a little more highly priced at FanDuel than they are at Draft Kings and they are a little tighter too, making Palmer a $400 savings over Rivers, that pushes him to the top of the list here.
Philip Rivers, $8,500, SD at BAL — The Chargers defense doesn’t really keep games close and the Chargers don’t have a running game, so that means Rivers will keep chucking it. He’s the third-most expensive quarterback on FanDuel and probably worth every penny.
Eli Manning, $7,300, NYG at NO — Manning is always a threat to throw three interceptions, but the Saints offense is third-worst in the NFL against the pass, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and they’ve allowed 82 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers. They’ve also been hammered by slot receivers and enemy tight ends.
Andy Dalton, $6,000, CIN at PIT — Dalton and Rivers at the same low price is nice. I might split my cash lineups 50/50 between them. They both have great matchups and could potentially end up in shootouts.
Cam Newton, $8,000, CAR vs. IND — The Panthers are projected to score the fourth-most points this week by Las Vegas. That means Newton probably runs in at least one touchdown and throws for at least another.
Teddy Bridgewater, $6,900, MIN at CHI — Bridgewater represents a huge value but he has limited upside because the offense is Adrian Peterson’s. Still the emergence of Stefon Diggs and the Bears 26th-ranked pass defense means Bridgewater presents an interesting tournament play this week.
Justin Forsett, $6,900, BAL vs. SD — Prices at FanDuel are typically considerably higher than those at Draft Kings so I was surprised to see Forsett at sub-$7,000. Excellent matchup and price. That’s what you want in cash games.
Devonta Freeman, $9,100, ATL vs. TB — Freeman is the most expensive running back on the board this week and he doesn’t have a great matchup. However, Freeman is getting so many touches he’s still expected to put up a whopper of a game.
Le’Veon Bell, $8,900, PIT vs. CIN — Bell is the second most expensive back on the board and with the return of Ben Roethlisberger he’ll probably be worth it this week. It also doesn’t hurt that the Bengals allow 7.8 pass attempts and 57 receiving yards per game to enemy running backs.
Danny Woodhead, $6,100, SD at BAL — Baltimore has allowed 52.8 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Short passes to Woodhead are the Chargers running game.
Todd Gurley, $8,100, STL vs. SF — Get aboard the Gurley train again this week against the train wreck that is the San Francisco 49ers.
Matt Forte, $8,200, CHI vs. MIN — Forte represents a good tournament play this week. If people are going to pay for a running back they’ll probably get Bell or Freeman. Forte is as important to his offense as either of those backs. The Vikings are sixth-worst in the NFL at defending the run, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.
Doug Martin, $7,500, TB at ATL — The Falcons allow 72.7 receiving yards per game to enemy running backs. Martin has been a dual threat this year in his resurgence. This could be a huge spot for a running back who has been playing like he should be priced in Forte’s range.
Giovani Bernard, $6,700, CIN at PIT — The Steelers have been tough against the run, but if this turns into a shootout like many expect, Bernard will get a lot of targets out of the backfield.
Duke Johnson, $5,800, CLE vs. ARI — Sub-$6,000 is a ridiculous price for any running back getting a significant number of touches regardless of matchup.
Marshawn Lynch, 8,300, SEA at DAL — Dallas is seventh-worst against the run this season, according to DVOA. Lynch’s ceiling might be limited by a low-scoring game, but he’s the kind of player who could get all three of Seattle’s expected three touchdowns.
Adrian Peterson, $8,900, MIN at CHI — Like Forte, Peterson is an offensive focal point at nearly $1,000 less than the top priced guys. Chicago is fourth-worst in the NFL against the run, according to DVOA.
Keenan Allen, $8,000, SD at BAL — Allen is getting all of the targets and catches and yards and yet he’s priced $1,200 less than Julio Jones. The Chargers have more potential mouths to feed than the Falcons, but so far Allen has feasted.
Eric Decker, $6,400, NYJ at OAK — Speaking of players priced well below what their recent performances have been worth, Decker presents an excellent value. We also need to consider him because the Raiders have allowed 67 passing yards per game to No. 2 receivers, one of the highest totals in the NFL.
Antonio Brown, $8,400, PIT vs. CIN — He’s a much better value at Draft Kings this week, but Ben Roethlisberger’s return likely means he’ll outperform his fairly lofty salary.
Michael Floyd, $4,900, ARI at CLE — Floyd nearly made it on our Draft Kings receiver sleepers list. Here his sub-$5,000 price is ridiculous, especially considering John Brown is likely to sit out this week.
Steve Smith Sr., $6,700, BAL vs. SD — DVOA says the Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but they’ve haven’t been flumoxed by any wide receivers so far this season. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes this week against Smith. Our formula says it will.
Julio Jones, $9,200, ATL vs. TB — As I’ve said a number of times our sleepers and values are created using a number of formulas. If it says Julio Jones is worth the most expensive salary in the game this week, then we should consider paying it.
Alshon Jeffery, $7,700, CHI vs. MIN — Like I said above in the Cutler blurb, this is a huge plus matchup for Jeffery. Minnesota has allowed 85.7 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers.
Larry Fitzgerald, $7,700, ARI at CLE — It’s not a great matchup for Fitzgerald, but his sub-$8,000 prices makes him an interesting play in tournaments. He had a touchdown last week but still disappointed owners, so he’ll probably be one of the lower-owned No. 1 wide receivers this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, $9,000, HOU vs. TEN — Hopkins should be lesser owned after his disappointment last week, however, he’s still going to get a pile of targets, especially with Arian Foster done for the season and Cecil Shorts inactive again.
Brandon Marshall, $8,300, NYJ at OAK — Having both Jets receivers on this list is the reason why Ryan Fitzpatrick was listed above. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a Fitzpatrick-Decker-Marshall lineups wins someone some big money this week.
Stefon Diggs, $6,700, MIN at CHI — Diggs is in a good spot, is the Vikings No. 1 wide receiver. He costs almost $2,000 more at FanDuel. I still feel like he’s a viable starting option this week in cash games. He should probably be in the $7,500-$8,000 range with his current targets and production.
Michael Crabtree, $5,700, OAK vs. NYJ — The Jets will likely do everything they can to take away Amari Cooper, which means Crabtree has a little more upside than usual. It’s still a tough matchup, so this is a tournament-only play.
Marvin Jones, $5,400, CIN at PIT — This price is way too low for a starting No. 2 wide receiver in an offense passing as much as the Bengals. Pittsburgh’s 79.7 yards per game allowed to No. 2 wide receivers is second-most in the NFL.
A.J. Green, $8,200, CIN at PIT — As I’ve said a couple times in this post, I suspect this game will turn into a shootout. That means Dalton will have a big game. If Dalton has a big game it’ll likely also mean great things for Green.
Martellus Bennett, $5,700 CHI vs. MIN — The Vikings have allowed 65.8 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Bennett leads the Bears in receptions, targets, yards, receiving touchdowns and receiving first downs.
Greg Olsen, $6,400, CAR vs. IND — Our most expensive tight end not named Gronk has a plus matchup this week and he costs $100 less than he does at Draft Kings where he is also considered a value. Indianapolis allows 62.4 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
Tyler Eifert, $6,000, CIN at PIT — Pittsburgh has been gouged by opposing No. 2 wide receivers and tight ends this season. Eifert is second on the Bengals in catches, targets and receiving yards, but his six touchdowns are twice as many as the next player. He’ll probably increase that touchdown lead this week.
Ladarius Green, $5,300, SD at BAL — Green costs just $3,000 at Draft Kings. Here at FanDuel he costs $2,300 more and our formula still considers him a value. That should make him even more of a must-play at Draft Kings. The Ravens have been pretty stingy against tight ends so far this season, but the Chargers offense is too pass-heavy to allow one of it’s primary components to go unrostered at his low price.
Delanie Walker, $5,400, TEN at HOU — Walker’s targets in his last four games: 10, 6, 10, 9. Despite that he doesn’t have a touchdown or a 100-yard game over that stretch. Something has to give.
Travis Kelce, $5,900, KC vs. DET — Detroit isn’t as great a matchup as our other high-priced TE options, but they have allowed 51 yards per game to tight ends. Kelce’s a tournament play for me this week.
Jason Witten, $5,500, DAL vs. SEA — Seattle’s defense isn’t as good on the road as it is at home and it has allowed 77 yards per game to enemy tight ends, the most in the NFL.
Eric Ebron, $5,500, DET at KC — In just five games, Ebron has scored three touchdowns and has been targeted at least five times in four of the five games.
Josh Lambo, $4,500, SD at BAL
Justin Tucker, $4,900, BAL vs. SD
Josh Brown, $4,700, NYG at NO
Chris Boswell, $4,500, PIT vs. CIN
Cairo Santos, $4,700, KC vs. DET
St. Louis Rams, $3,200 vs. SF
Tennessee Titans, $2,500 at HOU
Seattle Seahawks, $3,700, at DAL
San Francisco 49ers, $2,100, at STL
New York Jets, $2,900, at OAK
New Orleans Saints, $2,000, vs. NYG