2016 Draft Kit

NFL Week 9 FanDuel sleepers and values

Well, last week was interesting. I struggled in cash games, but my afternoon and primetime lineups pulled me to within even.

However, I did have a Yahoo tournament team return $150 on a $5 entry. At one point it was up to 12th place. That felt pretty good. I also broke a little better than even at FanDuel.

I still haven’t won an NFL tournament. Maybe this is the week. I’m liking how our rankings came together.

Despite the struggle last week, I still have quite a bit of confidence in our system. However it’s important to keep a few things in mind:

  1. Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 8. Only wager more if you play a lot of cash games and have found success there.
  2. Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.

OK, let’s get to this weeks sleepers and values at FanDuel in Week 9.

Week 9 FINAL updated fantasy football rankings: QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, K, DEF

Draft Kings sleepers and values

FanDuel sleepers and values

Week 9 fantasy football rankings: QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, K, DEF

Projected scores/Las Vegas odds | Game day weather | Waiver wire gems

All week 9 advice | Week 8 advice

Quarterbacks

Early rankings | Final rankings

Derek Carr, $7,000, OAK at PIT — Me and just about every other daily fantasy writer out there thinks this game shoots out. Carr to Amari Cooper shouldn’t be nerfed this week. And Carr to Michael Crabtree probably won’t be bad either.

Jay Cutler, $7,100, CHI at SD –The Bears are 24th against the pass and the Chargers are 25th so this game could go as ballistic as that OAK-PIT contest. Cutler’s got Alshon Jeffery back along with Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson.

Philip Rivers, $8,600, SD vs. CHI — Rivers is quite a bit more expensive than Carr or Cutler, but he’s chucking it everywhere and should be a much safer play. As I mentioned in the Cutler blurb, this game has shootout written all over it.

Ben Roethlisberger, $8,300, PIT vs. OAK — Roethlisberger is a much better value at Draft Kings, but considering his weapons and the potential game script against the Raiders, we have to consider Roethlisberger.

Tyrod Taylor, $7,200, BUF vs. MIA — Taylor will likely fall under the radar of many fantasy owners because he’s been injured. Tom Brady threw four touchdowns against Miami last week and Brian Hoyer threw three the week before.

Running backs

Early rankings | Final rankings

Devonta Freeman, $8,900, ATL at SF — This price is tough to consider with other values out there, but Freeman will probably finish the week as the No. 1 running back. He and Todd Gurley are battling for status as the top fantasy running back on the planet. Those are things we pay up for in daily fantasy.

Mark Ingram, $7,700, NO vs. TEN — You need to check out my projected scores column where I explain why Ingram might be a must-play this week.

Darren McFadden, $6,500, DAL vs. PHI — He’s getting all the volume, making us reminisce about 2010 and what could have been.

Danny Woodhead, $4,800, SD vs. CHI — Woodhead burned me quite a bit last week, but short passes to him is how the Chargers “run” the ball. And when he does get a handoff, the Bears are second-worst in the NFL at defending the run. He burned other owners last week, which also means he could be a low-owned play.

Dion Lewis, $7,400, NE vs. WAS — The Patriots top back put up a big total last week. They are expected to score an NFL best 33 points this week. The Redskins are worse against the run than the pass, which should mean Lewis will have some lanes to run through.

Doug Martin, $7,100, TB vs. NYG — Like McCoy, this isn’t a great rushing matchup, but unlike McCoy, Martin is playing in one of the projected highest scoring games of the week. Martin is the No. 4 fantasy running back so far this season, which means his price tag should be around $8,000, not around $7,000.

Lamar Miller, $6,900, MIA at BUF — Buffalo is 24th in the NFL at defending the run, according to DVOA. Since the Dolphins’ regime change, Miller has been a focal point of the offense.

DeAngelo Williams, $6,500, PIT vs. OAK — This isn’t a great rushing matchup for Williams, but when players step into a starting role from the bench — especially a role with potential Le’Veon Bell volume and the player has shown he can handle the workload, we need to consider him in our fantasy lineups.

 

Wide receivers

Early rankings | Final rankings

Michael Crabtree, $5,800, OAK at PIT — The Steelers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to WR2s this season. And this game could turn into a shootout. Starting-caliber receivers under $6,000 are rare at FanDuel.

Antonio Brown, $8,700, PIT vs. OAK — The return of Ben Roethlisberger returns Brown to the realm of elite wide receivers. He should be in the Julio Jones-esque $9,000 range and has a great matchup this week against the Raiders.

Amari Cooper, $7,300, OAK at PIT — Cooper is flirting with matchup-proof, start-him-in-cash-games-and-tournaments territory and this should be a shootout.

Alshon Jeffery, $7,900, CHI at SD — The Chargers are tough against No. 1 wide receivers, but if this game turns into a shootout, Jeffery is going to be involved. It’s going to be more difficult to roster Jeffery at FanDuel than Draft Kings but he should pay dividends if you can make it work.

Steve Johnson, $5,400, SD vs. CHI — His price is what? The Chargers’ new No. 1 wide receiver costs just $5,400. I’m going to have so much Steve Johnson exposure this week.

Julio Jones, $9,200, ATL at SF — No team has allowed more receiving yards to No. 1 wide receivers this season than the 49ers. We have to find a way to roster Jones this week in daily fantasy cash games.

Julian Edelman, $8,000, NE vs. WAS — The Patriots have such a huge projected score, all of their top guns have to be considered. I’m probably going with Rob Gronkowski where I want stability (cash) and Brandon LaFell where I want volatility and value (tournaments). I’m guessing a lot of other people will be doing the same, making Edelman an interesting sneaky play.

Mike Evans, $7,500, TB vs. NYG — Last week should have been huge for Evans but he fizzled. However, the Giants won’t be as capable of slowing him down this week, especially if Austin Seferian-Jenkins returns this week.

Stefon Diggs, $5,300, MIN vs. STL — This game has a low over/under, but Diggs’ salary continues to only make small increases. He’s the top receiving threat in Minnesota and must be considered as long as his price is below $6,000.

Demaryius Thomas, $8,400, DEN at IND — It’s a great matchup for all of the Broncos receivers and Thomas is the one with the most potential to be dominant. However, Peyton Manning’s struggles have deflated his price, rightfully so. It’s also worth noting Thomas will probably line up against Vontae Davis for 50% or more of his snaps this week which limits his ceiling.

Brandon LaFell, $5,200, NE vs. WAS — The Redskins have allowed the fourth most yards to No. 2 wide receivers this season and the Patriots have been feeding targets since LaFell got on the field this season. He could turn those into a huge game this week.

Tight ends

Early rankings | Final rankings

Martellus Bennett, $5,400, CHI at SD — Bennett is one of a few players who isn’t showing up on both my Draft Kings and FanDuel sleeper charts. He’s the only one to have this high a ranking. He is prices as the No. 11 tight end at FanDuel and should easily outplay that this week.

Greg Olsen, $6,400, CAR vs. GB — Green Bay has been tough against the pass this season, according to DVOA, but they’ve given up 70.5 yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is good news for Olsen owners. Olsen is one of a few players with a lower price on FanDuel than on Draft Kings this week. We should usually take advantage of something like that.

Antonio Gates, $6,000, SD vs. CHI — It’s not a great matchup, but the Chargers passing offense is depleted, Gates is a huge part of the offense and should be targeted even more with Keenan Allen’s season-ending injury.

Jordan Reed, $5,700, WAS at NE — Reed gets Rob Gronkowski targets and production when he and Kirk Cousins are on the field. OK, it’s not quite that good, but Reed costs $3,200 less.

Rob Gronkowski, $8,500, NE vs. WAS — You either pick a player like Miller and hope, or you take the sure fantasy points and pay up for Rob Gronkowski. Treat him like another wide receiver — like he performs — and his price doesn’t seem so absurd.

Delanie Walker, $5,500, TEN at NO — New Orleans can’t stop any receivers, but they’ve allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (70.1) to tight ends this season. And Kendall Wright is out. This could be a huge spot for Walker and a stack with Marcus Mariota could pay off in tournaments.

Benjamin Watson, $5,700, NO vs. TEN — It’s another good spot for Watson who took advantage of the Giants last week for 147 yards and a touchdown.

Kickers

Early rankings | Final rankings

Josh Lambo, $4,700, SD vs. CHI

Matt Bryant, $4,800, ATL at SF

Josh Brown, $4,800, NYG at TB

Robbie Gould, $4,600, CHI at SD

Sebastian Janikowski, $4,500, OAK at PIT

Brandon McManus, $5,000, DEN at IND

Team defense

Early rankings | Final rankings

New York Jets, $4,700, vs. JAC

New England Patriots, $4,900, vs. WAS

Atlanta Falcons, $4,900, at SF

Carolina Panthers, $4,400 vs. GB

Denver Broncos, $5,300, at IND

Minnesota Vikings, $4,700, vs. STL





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