For the last several weeks, Las Vegas’ predictions have been skewing our projections.
We’re trying to capitalize where those number-crunching geniuses say we should and we’re avoiding situations they think will be bad. Using Las Vegas odds, we get a projected score for the game then compare that to the offense vs. defense averages for each team.
From that we get a percentage. 100% means Vegas and the statistical average are exactly the same. Typically these numbers fluctuate mildly, 0.99, 1.03, etc. Then we multiply the projected averages by that number. So, if Vegas thinks a team is going to be 101% better than average, the player projections reflect it.
Even an adjustment of 1.03 can make a difference. Considering that, this week might be the most insane of the NFL season.
Green Bay is at 1.17 — not like Aaron Rodgers and Co. need to have boosted stats. Indianapolis and New Orleans aren’t far behind with factors of 1.13.
Chicago has been a dumpster fire, but they’re projected to score 25.3 points, 116% better than their average at home against Minnesota.
In all 17 of 28 teams came in at 100% or better. I’m pretty sure it’s the most this season. Vegas is predicting that four games will surpass 50 total points this week and two more will come in at 47 each. That’s a whole lot of points for teams to distribute to our fantasy football players.
Denver, Green Bay and Indianapolis are all slated to score 30 or more points. Only two teams, Buffalo and Oakland, are expected to score less than 19 points.
Matchups will be critical this week as we try to figure out which receiver will get three touchdowns while his teammates only get two.
Here are the offense vs. defense averages for this week. The Las Vegas factor number is in the last column on the right: