Most of you will probably spend a high pick on a first baseman and many of you will use an extra first baseman as a corner infielder or in your utility spot.
There are many great fantasy players in the first base ranks. But some of them will disappoint in 2010:
Adrian Gonzalez was already discussed in our look at 12 players with downside risk in 2010.
Joey Votto — Hey, what’s one of our Chinstrap Ninjas favorites doing on this list? Sorry, but we’re talking about “potential” busts and the potential is there. Votto plays at a hitter friendly park and could have had significantly more numbers last year if he hadn’t miss time with stress-related issues. However, that’s the rub. Everyone is drafting him as the sixth best first baseman expecting those numbers. His batting average drops in 2010 and if he doesn’t live up to the more homers talk, he’s not worth a Top-30 pick.
Kendry Morales — He won’t make it to 34 homers or hit .306 again. Rumor has it that the Angels are set for a serious offensive decline in 2010. That would sap Morales’ run and RBI numbers, too. He’d make a good No. 2 1B, but he’s being picked as a Top-10 1B.
Lance Berkman — Already hurt. Word today is Berkman will need surgery to clear particles from his knee and two to four weeks to recover. Surgery in March does not bode well for a player who can’t stay healthy to begin with.
Derrek Lee — After his superb 2005 season — 120/46/107/15/.335 — and his injury plagued 2005, Lee was a mediocre first baseman for two years before 2009. In the same season he turned 34, Lee went 91/35/111/1/.306. If he cuts 15 homers, 2o RBIs and 15 points of batting average like the projections in our Top 20 first baseman for 2010 suggest he will, Lee will be a good 1B, but won’t be worth a top 85 overall pick either.
Be sure to check out more sleepers, busts and rankings, based on composites and average draft position, on our 2010 fantasy baseball page.