2016 Draft Kit

Projecting the Colts at Texans for Week 6

It’s generally not a good idea to start players from the Thursday games because they oftentimes end up looking like JV games. With the short week comes less rest and game-planning.

However, this season has seen quite a few blowouts and huge fantasy performances. Let’s see if the projections have anything to say about our prospects for this week’s game.

First off, Vegas thinks both teams will perform about on-par with their average scoring total for the year. That tells me they don’t expect much variance here. That means Andrew Luck should be terrific and Ryan Fitzpatrick should be mediocre.

It’s worth noting, however, that Indianapolis will be without it’s starting guards, which means there is a gap in the front line protection. J.J. Watt doesn’t need weak offensive lines to destroy quarterbacks so he could be in for a monster day.

It’ll be interesting to see if Indianapolis rolls Luck out of the pocket or concentrates on the running game.

Here are the updated team totals, which are based on averages and don’t factor in the injured linemen:

Offense vs. defense averages

TEAMS OPP Pts Com Att Pyds PTd Int Sck RAtt RYds RTds FL
IND HOU 24.4 27.6 41.3 288.1 2.1 0.6 1.3 29.1 125.3 0.6 1.0
HOU IND 20.7 18.2 30.0 220.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 26.3 111.5 0.9 0.6

Neither kicker or defense appears to be a must-start either. Our projections think Randy Bullock is going to outscore Adam Vinatieri:

D/STs and Ks

D/ST OPP PTS SCK FR INT PYD RYD TD
IND HOU 24.4 1.7 0.6 1.2 220.0 111.5 0.60
HOU IND 20.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 288.1 125.3 1.36
Ks TM OPP FGm FGa XPm XPa
Adam Vinatieri IND HOU 1.6 1.7 2.7 2.8
Randy Bullock HOU IND 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.2

Now we get to the skill positions, where Andrew Luck is likely to be one of the top quarterbacks among all prognosticators.

He’s also among the most expensive at the daily fantasy sites. But we have to believe the injured lineman-Watt combo will limit his upside. Houston is already one of the most difficult teams to pass on.

Note, none of the skill player projections have been adjusted for matchups. These are the raw averages using 2014 distribution data with Vegas’ expectations factored in. Matchups are discussed in the blurbs between the projections:

Passing

NAME ATT COMP YDS TD INT
Andrew Luck IND HOU 41.28 27.56 288.09 2.10 0.57
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU IND 30.02 18.23 219.99 1.17 1.20

Both teams are susceptible to the run, so in standard leagues Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster are flex options. Foster is a must-start:

Rushing

NAME ATT YDS TD FUML
Ahmad Bradshaw IND HOU 9.4 53.2 0.0 0.5
Trent Richardson IND HOU 13.4 51.0 0.2 0.5
Andrew Luck IND HOU 3.6 13.8 0.4 0.0
Daniel Herron IND HOU 1.5 5.3 0.0 0.0
Donte Moncrief IND HOU 0.2 1.5 0.0 0.0
T.Y. Hilton IND HOU 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0
Matt Hasselbeck IND HOU 0.8 -0.6 0.0 0.0
Arian Foster HOU IND 14.2 70.9 0.7 0.6
Alfred Blue HOU IND 6.5 25.1 0.0 0.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU IND 3.3 10.7 0.2 0.0
Jonathan Grimes HOU IND 0.8 2.8 0.0 0.0
Damaris Johnson HOU IND 0.3 1.4 0.0 0.0
Ronnie Brown HOU IND 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0
Ryan Mallett HOU IND 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0

One of the big concerns this week in the receiving department is Andre Johnson who is questionable (again). Indianapolis is also a poor matchup for WR1s. I won’t have him in any of my Thursday lineups at FanDuel or Draft Kings. I would consider DeAndre Hopkins, who has a decent matchup.

The statistical matchups suggest this will be a good receiving week for Foster, making him a strong option at Draft Kings which awards a full point per reception. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished as the top running back this week in that format.

The matchups indicate a potentially great matchup for Garrett Graham, but he hasn’t been much of a factor so far this season.

The real disappointment this week is T.Y. Hilton. He is in line to have one of the best matchups of the week, but with the o-line concerns I’d be afraid to roster Hilton in 50/50s or head-to-head games where you need safe plays. He’s still an option as a boom-or-bust play in tournaments though. No. 1 wide receivers have also had a surprising amount of success against Houston, but you weren’t going to bench Reggie Wayne anyway

According to the last five weeks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Trent Richardson, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener may not be terribly effective against Houston:

Receiving

NAME REC TAR YDS TD FUML
Reggie Wayne IND HOU 5.5 8.4 67.6 0.2 0.0
T.Y. Hilton IND HOU 5.7 9.4 67.1 0.0 0.0
Dwayne Allen IND HOU 2.8 3.8 35.9 0.6 0.0
Ahmad Bradshaw IND HOU 3.3 4.1 26.6 0.6 0.0
Coby Fleener IND HOU 2.0 3.9 24.5 0.3 0.0
Trent Richardson IND HOU 2.8 3.6 23.2 0.0 0.0
Hakeem Nicks IND HOU 2.8 4.5 21.6 0.3 0.0
Donte Moncrief IND HOU 1.5 1.7 16.5 0.0 0.0
Jack Doyle IND HOU 1.1 1.1 5.1 0.2 0.0
DeAndre Hopkins HOU IND 4.9 6.7 73.1 0.7 0.0
Andre Johnson HOU IND 5.5 9.1 66.0 0.0 0.6
Arian Foster HOU IND 2.6 4.4 20.4 0.0 0.0
Garrett Graham HOU IND 2.0 2.8 20.2 0.0 0.0
Damaris Johnson HOU IND 1.0 2.4 14.7 0.2 0.0
Jonathan Grimes HOU IND 0.2 0.2 6.4 0.0 0.0
Alfred Blue HOU IND 0.6 0.9 5.4 0.0 0.0
Jay Prosch HOU IND 0.2 0.7 5.0 0.0 0.0
Keshawn Martin HOU IND 0.4 0.9 4.7 0.0 0.0
Ryan Griffin HOU IND 0.4 0.7 2.9 0.0 0.0
Ronnie Brown HOU IND 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0
J.J. Watt HOU IND 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0

Finally, here are the individual defensive players. I haven’t done much research into injured defensive players, but if you see a red O next to the player’s name on the roster page, understand most NFL backups are about as good as the starter, making the players replacement a huge potential sleeper for that week:

IDP

NAME TOT SACK INT PD REC ff
D’Qwell Jackson IND HOU 7.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
LaRon Landry IND HOU 4.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mike Adams IND HOU 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0
Darius Butler IND HOU 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0
Josh McNary IND HOU 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Erik Walden IND HOU 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Greg Toler IND HOU 2.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.4
Jerrell Freeman IND HOU 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
Bjoern Werner IND HOU 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Vontae Davis IND HOU 2.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0
Cory Redding IND HOU 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ricky Jean Francois IND HOU 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0
Arthur Jones IND HOU 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zach Kerr IND HOU 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brian Cushing HOU IND 5.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Johnathan Joseph HOU IND 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.2
Kendrick Lewis HOU IND 3.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
Kareem Jackson HOU IND 3.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0
D.J. Swearinger HOU IND 3.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
J.J. Watt HOU IND 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Jared Crick HOU IND 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Justin Tuggle HOU IND 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Mike Mohamed HOU IND 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brooks Reed HOU IND 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Darryl Morris HOU IND 1.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0
A.J. Bouye HOU IND 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Whitney Mercilus HOU IND 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Danieal Manning HOU IND 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0

That’ll do it for today. Again, sorry for not having the projections ready. They’ll be posted Friday.

 





3 Responses to “Projecting the Colts at Texans for Week 6”


  1. Brohamma

    Guess TY was a BOOM.. shame the second TD didn’t count for me.

    Put me down for Eddie Royal and Gates vs. that “soft as a baby’s bottom” middle of the Raiders. Hartline lit them up from the slot two weeks ago.. can only imagine the damage Royal is going to do. Don’t forget, the Pats squeaked by Choke-land a couple weeks ago, but Edelman still had 10 receptions. That “top” pass defense that has faced Geno, Fitzpatrick, Brady (major line issues) and Tannehill is about to get carved-up by, potentially, this years MVP in Rivers.

  2. ep

    Hilton certainly did boom. I put him and Luck together in a .25-cent tournament at Draft Kings. Not a bad start.

    I agree on the SD-OAK game. Oakland has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, but as you suggest that’s a hollow statistic.
    I like Football Outsiders’ take when it comes to looking at matchups.
    They have Oakland as the fourth-worst passing defense. Rivers and company should go bananas this week.

  3. brohamma

    That’s an interesting site, however, I’m often struck by the saying “paralysis through over-analysis.” Gut-feel with numbers and trends is the direction I like to go.. they seem to be purely numbers driven. I did bookmark them though to use as an additional source. Thanks!



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