How many people keep a running list of projection totals at their fantasy draft?
“Ooh, if I pick Jack Cust, his 23 projected homers will give me exactly 100!” Yeah, right. We’re drafting specific types of players. We need “power/speed” guys early then fill in the gaps with “steals” or “power” or “runs.” Nobody’s looking for exactly 103 RBIs.
This is the first in a series that will give you some examples of players to choose based on the likelihood that they’ll reach a certain statistical achievement in 2010.
This first listing focuses on pure power guys.
After looking at three-year home run totals and three different sets of expert projections, 13 players stand out as the most likely to hit 30 or more home runs for you in 2010. Not surprisingly, most of them are first basemen. Here they are, listed in order of power ranking, with position, team and early overall ADP from Mock Draft Central included:
Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies (10.11) — Howard’s only being picked around 10th overall, but few players can match his power.
Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers (8.54) — Has better overall numbers, but Howard is more likely to hit 50 bombs than Fielder.
Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals (1.16) — You could argue against him as the No. 1 pick overall because he lacks the potential for steals, but you can’t argue he’s a great hitter who will slug more than 35 homers for you.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees (3.42) — Missed almost 40 games in 2009 but still hit 30 homers.
Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees (7.49) — At that stadium, in that lineup, Teixeira is a lock for 30 dingers.
Adam Dunn, 1B/OF, Nationals (55.86) — Arguably the best value on this list because he could easily hit 50, he’s also the most likely to destroy your batting average.
Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers (5.21) —The best power/speed player on this list. You could pick him second or third and we wouldn’t mind.
Adrian Gonzale, 1B, Padres (31.15) — Hard to believe he’ll replicate his 2009 success, but he’ll get to 30 homers.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers (10.35) — Has hit at least 33 homers in five of his seven seasons in the bigs and averaged 35 over the last three years.
Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays (77.55) — Yeah, he’s the second most likely to kill your average.
Mark Reynolds, 3B/1B, Diamondbacks (20.37) — Even with 3B as shallow as it is, Reynolds’ ADP is too high coming off a career year. He will hit 30-35 homers.
Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins (85.14) — Another average destroyer, at least Uggla’s ADP puts him in the eighth round in 10-teamers.
Jason Bay, OF, Mets (26.42) — Another player whose ADP is too high. Citi Field sapped David Wright and the rest of the Mets in 2009. I’d bet Bay does not get 30 homers, even though all the research and experts are saying he probably will.
There are several guys just off this list who have the potential to hit 30 based on the research. The most likely of the also-rans: Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria, Chase Utley, David Ortiz, Ryan Zimmerman, Lance Berkman, Nelson Cruz, Justin Morneau, Carlos Lee, Nick Swisher and Jayson Werth.
Out of this group, I’m going to pick Longoria, Utley and Zimmerman where I can and expect 30 homers out of them. Zimmerman seems to be going as a good value in early mocks.
Counting the also-rans, there are about 24 players who are likely to hit 30 or more homers for you in 2010.
For reference, in 2009:
- 30 players hit 30 or more homers
- 0 players hit 50 or more
- 5 players hit 40 or more (Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Reynold and Gonzalez)
- 13 hit 35 or more (Add Teixeira, Pena, Dunn, Aaron Hill, Werth, Bay, Derrek Lee and Adam Lind to the five above)
The first few posts in this series will discuss the cream of the crop, pure power, speed, strikeouts, then we’ll move on to combination lists, like 100 runs and 100 RBIs or 30 homers and 30 steals.
Which of these players doesn’t belong? Who needs to be added? Let us know in the comments.