2016 Draft Kit

Quarterback matchups for conference championship weekend: Sleepers and busts

There are very few great matchups this week and quite a few bad matchups. That’s the price fantasy owners must pay during playoff football season.

It’s cool though. There are still values to find. Using matchups to build winning lineups is not the one key to winning at sites like FanDuel and Draft Kings. But used as part of a greater knowledge base they can lead to huge gains.

I built a lineup using just the top matchups across the list and was pleasantly surprised with the results.

Just like last week I’m going to present the matchups for all teams and positions still alive in the playoffs. In the preseason we added and subtracted some statistics in cases where there were strong good and bad matchups to accentuate the players we could expect to do better or worse than they might normally.

All players except kickers and defenses will be ranked based on reverse Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a Football Outsiders’ exclusive statistic which tries to eliminate outliers and give us a true sense of how a defense performs against each position.

I’ve also included the DVOA rank (again top-10 and bottom-10 rankings should really be noted). For quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, kickers and defenses, I’ve included PPR fantasy points per game allowed by the opposing defense in the last five games. For wide receivers I’ve included targets and yards allowed.

Conference championship boom or bust projections

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec.)

Thanks for reading all season. If you have any interest in other daily fantasy sports — and you should, especially for NBA games — please check back this week. I’m going to have some fresh content coming soon. I’ve entered a pile of low-end tournaments in the last week, gathering information and seeing how the chips fall. I’m starting to feel confident enough to write about them.

Quarterback matchups

Andrew Luck vs. New England — Patriots rank 12th in DVOA against quarterbacks and allowed 18.8 fantasy points per game in their last five. Chris “Beermakersfan” Prince put it best in his 6 Pack video this week, no quarterback will have to do more on his own for his team to win this week.

Russell Wilson vs. Green Bay — QB matchup of the week — 11th in DVOA, 19.6 FPPG/5 — Wilson’s rushing ability pushed him to the top of our projections this week. And that’s even after his rushing numbers were nerfed a bit because the Packers gave up just 47 yards rushing to quarterbacks in the last five weeks — less than 10 yards per game.

Tom Brady vs. Indianapolis — 10th in DVOA, 19.0 FPPG/5 — I’m never betting against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the playoffs. However, the Patriots have leaned on the running game — including current RB LeGarrette Blount — in postseasons past.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Seattle — 3rd in DVOA, 11.2 FPPG/5 — Like most of the fantasy community, I’m not scared of the calf injury. Despite the worst matchup this week, I still wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers has 400 yards and 3 touchdowns after the dust settles.

Comments are currently closed.

%d bloggers like this: