2016 Draft Kit

Quarterback matchups for the divisional round: Sleepers and busts

In the regular season, the matchups highlighted here included only the top 10 and bottom 10 matchups in the league.

Now that we have narrowed the field down to only the best teams the matchups are a lot less clear. There’s only one good matchup at a lot of positions. Last week, I limited these matchups to just good and two bad matchups per position.

This week I’m going to list them all. Despite not having a lot of great matchups, we still need to fill out a full roster. And there’s going to be a lot of variance. Maybe a middle-of-the-pack matchup is all you care about to make a WR2 startable in your lineup.

So, with that out of the way, let’s talk about presentation. I’m not going to give you good and bad matchups this week. You get one list per position, eight-ish players. They are listed in order of best to worst. The best-to-worst listing is based on Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Averages for QB, RB, WR1, WR2, WR3/4, TE and RB (Rec.). K and DEF are ranked based on season-long schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec)

Divisional round boom-or-bust projections

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Quarterback matchups

Aaron Rodgers vs. Dallas — It looks like Rodgers is going to be a go. The Cowboys rank 11th in DVOA against quarterbacks and allowed 22.5 fantasy points per game to them in the last five weeks, 7th-most in the NFL

Tom Brady vs. Baltimore — The Ravens rank 18th in DVOA, putting them in the middle of the pack. But over the last five games they’ve been among the most effective teams against quarterbacks, allowing just 16.1 fantasy points per game, 27th in the NFL

Joe Flacco vs. New England — The Patriots are 21st in DVOA against QBs, putting them just outside of what we would call a bad matchup in the regular season. There’s a lot of narrative about how much better Flacco is in the postseason. We’ll see if he can live up to that hype against Bill Belichick.

Tony Romo vs. Green Bay — the Packers rank 22nd in DVOA and over the last three games have given opposing quarterbacks fits, allowing just 13.5 points per game, third-lowest in the NFL.

Peyton Manning vs. Indianapolis — The Colts rank 23rd in DVOA, but the Broncos recent offensive direction should be more concerning for Manning owners and DFS players. He still could throw for 400 and 3 TDs, but it’s more likely C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman continue to get a lot of work.

Russell Wilson vs. Carolina — The Panthers rank 24th in DVOA and 28th in fantasy points per game allowed in the last five weeks (16.1).

Andrew Luck vs. Denver — The Broncos are 28th in DVOA but a surprising 7th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. They are among the stingiest defenses against them however in five-week and three-week listings.

Cam Newton vs. Seattle — There’s no tougher matchup this week. Seattle ranks 30st in DVOA, 32nd in defense adjusted FPA and 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed in the last five weeks. I’ll have one 25-cent lineup with Newton in it because there’s always a chance, but I’m not going to own him in any big contests. Seattle also only allowed 142 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, ranking them 26th of 32 teams.





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