We should have high confidence in these matchups.
We’re only talking about matchups that meet good/bad matchup criteria for the whole season, the last five weeks and the last three weeks. If a matchup doesn’t fit in all three categories, then it has to have a significant number in the last-five-weeks and last-three-weeks.
The players are ordered based on season-long adjusted fantasy points allowed. The numbers next to the names are fantasy points allowed by position and the NFL rank in that category in the last five weeks. For receivers we’ve included the yards the defense has allowed per game to that receiver type.
Top quarterback matchups
Eli Manning vs. Washington — 24.6 fantasy points allowed, 3rd — I’m going to have a Manning-Beckham stack in at least one DFS lineup this week. You beat the Redskins through the air and Vegas thinks the Giants score 27 this week.
Matt Ryan vs. Pittsburgh — 26.0 fantasy points allowed, 1st — Julio Jones will likely be hobbled or out. That should limit Ryan’s floor and ceiling, but this matchup is so juicy — and Harry Douglas has been able to put up big numbers when given starters’ targets in the past.
Drew Brees vs. Chicago — 24.2 fantasy points allowed, 3rd — Brees burned me twice in the last couple of weeks. He had good matchups and couldn’t do anything with them. Everyone is going to avoid him. That’s precisely why we should consider him in a tournament lineup.
Mark Sanchez vs. Dallas — 24.1 fantasy points allowed, 5th — Sanchez could throw for 300 yards and three TDs against the Cowboys.
Jay Cutler vs. New Orleans — 24.7 fantasy points allowed, 2nd — Cutler feels like the Dumpster fire king of the Chicago Dumpster fire, but in reality he only has two games with less than 17.6 fantasy points and has three 30-point games.
Worst quarterback matchups
Aaron Rodgers vs. Buffalo — 14.3, 2nd — I won’t have Rodgers in any DFS lineups this week. This road matchup scares me more than it scares other fantasy prognosticators, who still like the GB QB at No. 3 this week.
Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco — 17.8, 12th
Colin Kaepernick vs. Seattle — 9.9, 1st
Johnny Manziel vs. Cincinnati — 14.7, 3rd — There are going to be a lot of Johnny Manziel owners this week. I’ll roster him on a team or two, but this matchup will keep me from going to wild even though his price is probably as low as it will ever be.
Derek Carr vs. Kansas City — 17.6, 10th — Hopefully you aren’t force to start Carr in your semifinals this week.