We should have high confidence in these matchups.
We’re only talking about matchups that meet good/bad matchup criteria for the whole season, the last five weeks and the last three weeks. If a matchup doesn’t fit in all three categories, then it has to have a significant number in the last-five-weeks and last-three-weeks to be considered.
The players are ordered based on season-long adjusted fantasy points allowed. The numbers next to the names are fantasy points allowed by position and the NFL rank in that category in the last five weeks. For receivers we’ve included the yards the defense has allowed per game to that receiver type, according to Football Outsiders, instead.
When you’re setting your lineups in daily fantasy or trying to break a tie for your season-long lineup, these matchups should be one of your primary tools.
Top quarterback matchups
Alex Smith vs. Pittsburgh — 27.7 fantasy points, 1st — Right out of the gate we get an off-the-wall option. I can’t recommend starting Alex Smith. The Chiefs still haven’t completed a passing touchdown to a wide receiver this year. That screams low ceiling.
Matthew Stafford vs. Chicago — 22.4 fantasy points, 7th — This one is juicy, but — there’s always a but — Stafford’s home/away splits are like Jekyll/Hyde.
Mark Sanchez played Washington on Saturday
Andrew Luck vs. Dallas — 23.3 fantasy points, 5th — Without T.Y. Hilton, you might want to consider starting luck without a wide receiver paired to him. There are a lot of weapons and Luck will likely use them all.
Matt Ryan vs. New Orleans — 24.7 fantasy points, 2nd — Ryan’s ceiling will be limited if Julio Jones doesn’t play, but it probably won’t be limited by much. I expect to have a decent amount of exposure to Ryan lineups this week.
Worst quarterback matchups
Ryan Lindley vs. Seattle — 8.8, 1st — Lindley was going to be the least-owned quarterback this week regardless of who he played.
Derek Carr vs. Buffalo — 12.8, 2nd — There’s some talk amongst the experts about a big Buffalo let down this week. If that’s the case, Carr makes a mockery of this matchup.
Cam Newton vs. Cleveland — 17.1, 9th — I’m not starting Newton anywhere because of his back. This matchup just solidifies my decision.
Peyton Manning vs. Cincinnati — 13.4, 4th — Manning hasn’t thrown much the last few weeks. There are two schools of thought, that he’s going to have a “Manning game” soon or they’re going to keep on feeding the ball to C.J. Anderson. This week, at least, I think Manning keeps handing off.
Philip Rivers played San Francisco on Saturday
Charlie Whitehurst played Jacksonville on Thursday
Johnny Manziel vs. Carolina — 17.0, 8th — As if last week’s disaster wasn’t enough reason to stay away.