Hope you didn’t skip right to the list because you’re probably wondering where the first 10 went. There right over here.
After you’ve read those, you’re ready for these 10. If you’ve already read those, then you know how I wouldn’t be upset if you picked Ryan Howard in those 10 and not these 10.
Alright, I’m even confusing myself now. Let’s get to the rankings. Players 11-20 in the top 20 in 2010:
Ryan Howard — If you’re a virtual lock for 45 homers and 130 RBIs you have every right to be in the Top-10 over Evan Longoria … unless you’re hitting .270 or less. Projections: 95/45/130/5/.270
Tim Lincecum — Why would anyone pick a player who can only help you win four categories at No. 12 overall? Because that player will practically win the Ks category for you, that’s why. Still, taking any pitcher this early is a risky pick. Projections: 15/0/240/2.80/1.15
Joe Mauer — When it comes to making first and second round picks it pays to take the best player available. You want quality at-bats. Players that produce either a hit, run, homer, RBI or steal more often should be coveted. Joe Mauer produces at a .747 rate per at-bat, making him the most valuable player available by almost .030 at this point. But — and you knew there had to be a but here, right? — he’ll likely only get around 500 at-bats. Only A-Rod is expected to have that few ABs in the top-20. Catchers get banged up and take days off, but still… Projections: 90/20/95/5/.330
David Wright — The man with the vanishing power. Will it return? Yes. Some of it anyway. But these projections still feel optimistic. Projections: 95/25/95/25/.305
Ian Kinsler — There should be little doubt about a 25-25 season out of Kinsler. You could stretch it to 30-30 and that wouldn’t be crazy. It would also bump up his quality at-bat percentage (.681) that we talked about in the Mauer blurb a few sentences back. Projections: 100/25/80/25/.275
Carl Crawford — For some reason these good projections feel pessimistic. Projections: 90/15/70/45/.295
Troy Tulowitzki — He’s not going to steal 20 bags this season and .297 might have been his ceiling, but he’s still one of the best shortstops in the game. Projections: 95/25/90/10/.290
Mark Reynolds — There’s a lot of downside risk here, but at a shallow position, some of you are going to take that risk and I can’t blame you. Of course, you could wait until the next 10 and pick Ryan Zimmerman. Projections: 90/35/95/15/.260
Jacoby Ellsbury — Quality at-bats percentage is only .683 based on the following projections. However, I think he gets more at-bats than I think, so that number is dropping. Projections: 95/10/60/55/.300
Jimmy Rollins — Don’t know if he’s got 30-30 in him again, but 20-35 is great. From a shortstop, that’s awesome. His batting average on balls in play was a paltry .251. That’s horrible and 42 points off his career mark. Expect a correction that should bump up his average. Projections: 100/20/50/30/.270.
Be sure to check out our new 2010 fantasy baseball page.