The Top 60 starting pitchers are as unexciting as the Top 40 were. Luckily, by the time you get to the end of this 20, you’ll be picking in the 230s range, so you aren’t spending much.
More importantly, there are a couple players here who you should pick and one guy I recommend every last one of you pick.His name is Jonathan Sanchez. Read on to find out why you should pick him and a few others during your 2010 fantasy baseball draft.
These rankings are based off ADP listings. The comments will tell you if the ADP is right on, or right off. The projections are there, too. They usually complement the comments.
Starting pitchers Nos. 41-60:
41. Carlos Zambrano — This first tier goes to Gavin Floyd. I’m staying away from this tier. Zambrano’s not as dominant as the Zambrano we remember from 2003-07. He’ll only be 29 in June, but if you draft him expect him to miss time with Injury. With that in mind, he’s a little overrated here. Projections: 10/0/3.75/1.35/150
42. Neftali Feliz — Will start he season as a reliever and could go back to the minors to get time in a rotation. He’s immensely talented and a snag and stash in keeper/dynasty formats, but in redrafts you do not want him at this price. Projections: 5/0/3.65/1.30/80
43. David Price — Like Feliz, Price has serious potential. However, his dominant K per inning stuff in the minors, and during his stint in the Bigs in 08, didn’t carry over in an expanded role last season. He could turn into an excellent pitcher, and you’ll have to pay for those expectations. I don’t think he meets them in 2010Projections: 10/0/4.20/1.40/120
44. Scott Kazmir — Time for a story. I had Kazmir as a keeper in a now defunct dynasty league. That was after his awesome 2007 when he was 13-9 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a saucy 239 Ks. Since then he’s been the poster boy for disappointment. He’s only 26 this season — he debuted at age 21 — but already this preseason he’s been scratched for a start. He’s had 27 or less starts in three of the last four seasons. I want to call these stats pessimistic, but in reality they’re just realistic. Projections: 10/0/4.00/1.40/150
45. Gavin Floyd — A completely unexciting pick. If he had few more Ks I’d think about picking him, but he doesn’t have the talent or upside of several of the guys being picked after him. Projections: 10/0/4.20/1.35/145
46. Jorge de la Rosa — This is a one-man tier because I’m not sure I’d want to own a lot of the other guys before or after him. The Ks last season seemed like a nice surprise, but de la Rosa’s K/9 rates in the past showed he was capable of such things.You’re going to pay for the 16 wins he got last year that he probably won’t get this year, but his Ks prediction feels a little pessimistic. Projections: 10/0/4.40/1.45/170
47. Daisuke Matsuzaka — This is a new tier it stops short before Porcello, who’s saved by his upside. Matsuzaka is likely to start the season on the disabled list with neck and back issues. He’s got a favorable K/9, but if that (neck, back) continues he’s completely overpriced at this spot. Projections 10/0/4.30/1.45/140
48. Randy Wolf — Do you pronounce it “wulf” or “woof?” I prefer “woof” but I have to force myself to say it that way. Love to hear people say “woof” when they’re talking about a wolf. Not sure which kind of Wolf we’re going to get here. Randy Wolf has always been a fantasy option and I wouldn’t fault you for picking him here. However, he hasn’t been as good as he was last year since the early 2000s with the Phillies. Don’t pay for a career year. It wasn’t career best, but 3.25/1.10/160 in 214 IP is pretty out there compared to the numbers the 34-year-old put up in his prime. Projections: 10/0/4.00/1.35/150
49. Clay Bucholz — OK, why give Porcello a pass because of his upside if we’re not going to give Bucholz the same? Because Bucholz has higher expectations and I think his numbers from last year are more representative of his skills than his minor league stats. He is only 26, so he has a little time to make some improvements, I just don’t see that happening. Projections: 10/0/4.30/1.40/140
50. Joba Chamberlain — It’s not that I don’t like Chamberlain (delicious Ks) it’s that his situation is not good. Phil Hughes is the No. 5 starter, so to the bullpen with Joba. If you get points for holds, Chamberlain is a good choice, just don’t expect 30 starts and the counting stats that come with it. Projections: 5/0/4.60/1.40/160
51. Tim Hudson — He’s never produced nearly enough strikeouts to be a legit fantasy stud. At age 35, he produces even fewer Ks and innings pitched. You can have his ERA and WHIP, I don’t want them. Projections: 10/0/3.75/1.30/80.
52. Rick Porcello — Porcello is a one man tier because Andy Pettitte is next and in the way. Porcello could develop Ks. He only had one year of seasoning in the minors (high-A) and went straight to the pros in 2009 at age 20. Own him in dynasty and keeper leagues. Projections: 10/0/4.30/1.40/130
53. Andy Pettitte — He’s not an ace any more. At age 38 he’s not going to get you the Ks or innings you need to win. Whoever drafts him will drop him and you can stream him into your lineup if he gets a favorable matchup, but don’t draft him. Projections: 10/0/4.35/1.45/130
54. Rich Harden — This tier goes to Cueto. Read a blurb from Rotowire that called Harden “injury prone and strikeout-heavy” and there’s just no better way to put it. Harden had a tired arm at the end of last season and got shut down. To battle that, the Rangers are going to occasionally skip his turn in the rotation. That may seem like he’ll end up with fewer stats, but if the 28-year-old stays healthy and effective longer, none of us will complain. I’d take a chance on him. Projections: 10/0/3.55/1.30/160
55. Kevin Slowey — He’s only 26 so he hasn’t even entered his prime yet. His wrist surgery — two screws were inserted — in September, doesn’t seem to be hindering him this spring. He’s been fantastic and could be on the verge of breaking out. Based on what he’s done this spring, these predictions could be pessimistic. Projections: 10/0/4.20/1.25/160
56. Jeff Niemann — He’s being drafted here based on expectations after his 13-6/3.94/1.35/125 2009. Barring injuries to the rest of the rotation, he’s going to be coming out of the ‘pen, so temper expectations. Projections: 10/0/4.40/1.40/140
57. Johnny Cueto — Is Cueto healthy? If he his, he should harvest the potential he came into the league with. The 24-year-old tore through the Reds minor league system. He’s got some post-hype on him. I dig. Projections: 10/0/4.20/1.35/160
58. Jonathan Sanchez — This new tier is a one-man tier. Call it “must-own.” Draft Sanchez a round or two earlier than his 230 ADP. From 2004 to 2007 in the minors, Sanchez was an 11.9 K/9 pitcher. I’m projecting him for 200 Ks. The last player I projected for 200 Ks was Javier Vazquez back in the Top 20 for 2010. Just saying. Projections: 10/0/4.20/1.45/200
59. Ben Sheets — Another one-man tier. Run away screaming from this tier. Hitters are ripping up Sheets this spring. He’s a waiver matchup-stream starter in 2010, if that. Projections: 5/0/4.40/1.35/75
60. Francisco Liriano — Wanted to put Liriano in the same tier as Sheets to keep from having another one-man tier, but can’t do it this year. Liriano has looked good this spring and had a 0.49 ERA with a 47:5 K:BB in 37 winter innings. Unfortunately, his return to fantasy SP dominance may be cut down by Joe Nathan’s injury. Word is, Liriano could close. Projections: 10/0/4.30/1.40/145
The bonus round will come in a couple posts and will conclude the pitcher rankings. If you want more, I know you do, check out our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings page and our fantasy baseball strategy and advice archive page.