2016 Draft Kit

Running back receiving matchups for Week 16: Sleepers and busts

We should have high confidence in these matchups.

We’re only talking about matchups that meet good/bad matchup criteria for the whole season, the last five weeks and the last three weeks. If a matchup doesn’t fit in all three categories, then it has to have a significant number in the last-five-weeks and last-three-weeks to be considered.

The players are ordered based on season-long adjusted fantasy points allowed. The numbers next to the names are fantasy points allowed by position and the NFL rank in that category in the last five weeks. For receivers we’ve included the yards the defense has allowed per game to that receiver type, according to Football Outsiders, instead.

When you’re setting your lineups in daily fantasy or trying to break a tie for your season-long lineup, these matchups should be one of your primary tools.

Week 16 projections

Week 16 matchups: PASS | RUN | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | RB (Rec.)

Top RB receiving matchups

Steven Jackson/Devonta Freeman/Jacquizz Rodgers vs. New Orleans — 55.9 yards allowed — If the game turns into a Saints blowout, Freeman and Rodgers will get the majority of the passing yards. But if the game stays within reach, Steven Jackson could have a huge game this week.

Matt Forte vs. Detroit — 52.9 yards — The Lions have a strong defense, but they’ve allowed pass-catching backs to gain yards on them. That’s Forte’s game.

DeMarco Murray/Lance Dunbar/Joseph Randle vs. Indianapolis — 51 yards — If Murray can’t go, Randle is the likely replacement. Dunbar is more talented and could see more pass routes even if Murray plays.

Mark Ingram/Pierre Thomas vs. Atlanta — 50.6 — I have a feeling there will be touchdowns and yards for everyone in this Saints-Falcons tilt. Thomas is the likely beneficiary of this matchup. He makes a sneaky good play in daily fantasy because of it.

Chris Ivory/Chris Johnson vs. New England — 48.5 yards — New England has been among the stingiest defenses against running backs this season, but they do allow them to gain yards through the air. Johnson has more catches, targets, yards and has a receiving touchdown this season, but Ivory has 26 targets. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jets game plan to take advantage of this matchup.

Worst RB receiving matchups

Toby Gerhart played Tennessee on Thursday

LeSean McCoy/Darren Sproles played Washington on Saturday

Branden Oliver/Donald Brown played San francisco on Saturday

Shane Vereen vs. New York Jets — 31.2 yards — I don’t believe any matchup or news out of New England. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vereen has 11 catches and 200 yards against the Jets.

Arian Foster vs. Baltimore — 32.2 yards — The more stats I look at the more I lower Foster’s ceiling.

Isaiah Crowell/Terrance West vs. Carolina — 34 yards — Crowell and West don’t get many targets out of the backfield anyway. They might get more with Johnny Manziel at quarterback, but we can’t expect quality targets after last week’s disaster.

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