There are a ton of outfielders, but the ones at the top are more likely to make/break you.
With that in mind, this busts list sticks with only the Top 30. For most of you, that means the players being picked as starting outfielders in 10-team leagues. It also means some of you are not going to be happy when you see some of the names.
Keep in mind, that these are only “potential” busts. I’m not saying you should run away screaming, but you can probably tell in the blurbs who the stronger bust candidates are.
Michael Cuddyer and Matt Holliday were two players highlighted along with 10 others who have downside risk in 2010.
At age 23 this season, Justin Upton should still be making great advances in his skill set. Still, his FB/HR percentage was way up, so were his BABIP and Speed Score. Everybody is thinking 30-30-.300 this season and making him the sixth outfielder taken. But if he regresses to something a little closer to what his minor league stats say he should produce — 20-15-.280 — it’s like picking Bobby Abreu or Nate McLouth in the top 25 overall. Like I have in some other sleeper posts, this blurb is a little long because Upton is a fantastic pick in dynasty leagues and by all indications will be a great outfielder. However, it’s worth noting that he has potential to disappoint in 2010.
Last season David Wright suffered production declines thanks in part to the Mets’ new stadium and the absence of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. Beltran had his knee scoped and Reyes has a thyroid problem to start 2010. Metsville could be in trouble again this season. If that happens, it’ll hurt Jason Bay‘s numbers more than just moving to a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Josh Hamilton is a potential bounce-backer, but picking a bounce-backer with still-lingering shoulder issues among the top 15 outfielders in fantasy baseball doesn’t feel like a winning strategy.
Talked about Carlos Beltran in the Bay blurb a couple lines ago. He’s not rated in the Top 20, but people who are picking Beltran around 27th expect a starting outfielder. Past performance in seasons when he was healthy are top-20 caliber, but his recent performance tells a different story.
For more sleepers and busts, check out our 2010 fantasy baseball page.
Agree? Disagree? Who else is ready to bust in the outfield in 2010? Let us know in the comments.