Starting a dynasty league? Here are a few draft suggestions
When my dynasty league started in 2008, I searched the Internet for help and insight as to how to draft and found very little. After two years and one championship, I have become much better at figuring out how to dominate.
When doing a dynasty league, you just need to remember that you’re going to have these players until you don’t want them any more, so draft wisely.
If I were to have my dynasty draft over I would have done a lot of things differently.
My first five picks were as follows: Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber, Andre Johnson, Jay Cutler and Anthony Gonzalez.
I want you to dominate your friends. I want you to be that guy that doesn’t need to trade because your team is so stacked. Follow the tips below and dominance will be right around the corner.
First, you will be tempted to go out and buy a fantasy magazine. Before you go to the local book store and spend $7.99 on a book, perhaps you should write a check to Chinstrap Ninjas for $5.99 and drop it in the mail. Once the check is in the mail, come back and finish this article.
Now that you have saved yourself $2 on the magazine and an unknown amount on gas and time, here is everything you need to know.
Everyone thinks that you need to build with running backs … wrong. The running back stud theory is only good in redraft leagues, so abandon it.
Right now you are thinking I am crazy, but ask yourself in the past few years how many RBs have consistently been picked in the first round and been worth the pick. Not many.
Some of the best fantasy backs of the past season were not even drafted in the first three rounds: Cedric Benson, Ray Rice, Ricky Williams, Ryan Grant, the list goes on. The turnover at running back is crazy and in fantasy it only takes a few good games to get them in the first round. Look at Jamaal Charles — he strung together five good games in a row and is being discussed as a top 10 pick for the coming season.
So what to do? Well if I were participating in a draft tomorrow, I would draft in this manner: WR, WR, QB, and here is why.
First, wide receivers hardly ever get hurt badly (quarterbacks as well). Receivers pull their groins and twist ankles, but in the past season only one big name wideout went down, that was Wes Welker and it wasn’t until the end of the season and well past fantasy relevancy.
Second, the best wide receivers are all young and they play at a high level into their early- to mid-30s.
Third, wide receivers and quarterbacks both have strong carry-over value from season to season. There are very few backs that stay good for more than three to four years. A lower body injury to a RB is crushing to their fantasy value where as with a WR or QB it doesn’t close the door on them.
One caveat, if everyone in your league is jumping all over QBs and RBs, adjust and go WR, QB, WR. You need to be able to make changes when you’re drafting to maximize your pick’s worth. The main fact here is that you should not be looking for RBs until the fourth or fifth round.
So you should be looking at these players at the top of your draft: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson and a top QB.
Now in rounds four to six, you go after some running backs. I will also suggest that you should look at drafting a solid tight end. A player such as Jermichael Finley, Brent Celek or Vernon Davis could be instrumental to year-to-year dominance.
So now you have this team with no “stud” running backs and a bunch of young stud players. Have faith, grasshopper. While I understand that you will most likely not win your fantasy championship the first year, I will be willing to bet you make it to the Super Bowl by the end year three.
Here is why it is going to be like that:
1. You have drafted players that are elite talents at their position and they are going to be good for years to come.
2. If you take a tight end early, you will have a top player at a position that is scarce and again he will be good for years to come.
3. You read the articles on Chinstrap Ninjas so you will know who the up and comers are going to be so you will be ahead of the curve.
As the draft continues, remember you’re going to be picking about 17 to 20 players and you’re only going to start about 8 players (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 FLEX). So about 5-8 players are going to be for depth and about 3-5 will be for development. Continue to fill out your roster with a healthy mix of youth and solid starters.
At the draft, you should have about five guys in mind that are a year or two away from being impact guys. It is OK to reach for these guys — when I had my draft, my reaches were for (this draft was 20 rounds and took place in 2008): Eddie Royal (15th), Rashard Mendenhall (6th), Sidney Rice (16th), Anthony Gonzalez (5th). You just need to remember to draft for the future … having a wealth of young players can be great trading material and can help you maintain a solid core.
Finally, if you don’t believe me, ask some people who are in dynasty leagues. Who are the guys they wish they had and don’t be surprised when they rattle off the names of top wideouts, tight ends and quarterbacks.
The only guys that will say running backs will qualify it by saying where the back was drafted. It will sound like this: “Man, I wish I would have drafted Ray Rice. he was picked in the 10th round. I would have gladly given a ninth-round pick.”
In following this way to draft, you are building your team to be good for years. If you want the instant gratification of winning the inaugural season, than don’t listen, but if you want to have your name on the trophy numerous times … take notes and dominate for years to come.
What are your suggestions for drafting your initial team in a dynasty league? Feel free to share your comments below.
It is hard for me to give a full opinion on what truly works over time, but for an early championship run in your league, you need to have at least 1 stud running back. All 4 of our inaugural season playoff teams had either Adrian Peterson, MJD, Ray Rice, or Chris Johnson on them. I don’t think that happened by coincedence. But if you can’t get a super stud at the position, then I agree with you, you need to draft the receivers first and then draft a bunch of young backs with the potential to turn into a top five back in time.
@Sockonfl: Socko, I agree that you’re not going to take your league title the first year drafting like this, but it’s about the long term in my opinion. Id trade one down year for 3 to 4 years in the playoffs and i think drafting as stated would allow this to happen.
To respond to your comment, about the teams in your leagues playoffs, I would contest that Ray Rice was not drafted in the top 5 in your draft or even the first round. I saw Rice as a sleeper that was known about everyone as primed for a breakout, but i don’t think his value was in the top 2 rounds in a 10 team league. So I will address the others running backs you stated.
First, one stud RB does not make a super bowl champion, in fantasy.
The team that holds Chris Johnson, i would assume he was picked around 5th – 7th overall, also holds Drew Brees, Boldin, and Tony Gonzo he also selected one of the surprise fantasy RB’s in Benson. While Johnson killed it over the season, Brees and Benson were near the top of their respective positions
The team holding AP, i’d assume he went #1, also have Rivers, Calvin Johnson, and Austin. He too selected two RB’s that performed better than anticipated Addai and Grant. Austin kicked it into overdrive in the back half of the year and so did Grant. Also, Addai was solid throughout the year.
The team with MJD, i’d assume he went 2 or 3, has Gore, Fitz, Romo, and Celek. Also he had Ricky Williams which after the Brown injury became prime time. He also had a solid bye week guy in Mike Bell.
With all that said, it will be interesting to see how these teams continue on. I will contest these players should be at the top next year, but everyone thought that Forte was going to be dominate. Also players such as Westbrook, Tomlinson, Turner, and Slaton were common in the first round of redraft leagues. I would contest that each player did not meet there billing.
Without knowing your exact draft positions of the players its hard to judge, but i stand by that the teams with solid wide receivers have the most sustainability. In my league the teams that went to the playoffs 2 years in a row have Randy moss, steve smith(car.); Boldin, Jennings; Fitz, Welker… only one new team made the playoffs the 2nd year. In each case as well the three prior teams were using at lease one new running back (we play a flex position and most choose 3 rbs).
You are right that there is a need to get young RBs but with solid WR’s and QB you can devote your rookie drafts to rookie rbs instead of worrying about having to get a qb or wr in the rookie draft
I’m with Socko … a stud RB is more valuable than a stud WR, because he can routinely score two ways, receiving and running. WRs are typically regulated to only receiving yards and receptions.
A team has a bad passing day or is facing bad weather that week, your WR is shot. At least a RB has another chance to make up for a sluggish running day.
I wouldn’t consider Boldin or Jennings solid (reliable) WRs. I’m curious as to what RBs those teams that went back-to-back playoff runs had?
However, I do agree RBs are much more disposable than WRs. But you do need to have a stud RB for that year to succeed. You can succeed without a stud WR …
@Jay-Mo: I will look into the Running back data there have been a ton of trades so i will have to filter through all of the data to get the answers.
I guess i should have said… the turn over from year to year for running back is great and i feel you can find decent running backs on waiver wire, not to mention your team should have at least 2 guys that are going to get some touches. There are usually not as many big time Wideouts that bust through in a given season, for the reasons you stated that there are less ways to score and that their output is directly related to the quarterbacks they have.
I will agree that you need some running backs to compete, but by grabbing the top flight guys at WR,QB, and TE you can select numerous guys that are a year away or are guys like McCoy,Greene, or Mendenhall who just needed the other back to be released or get hurt.
I view it value drafting with the scarcity at the WR (as you point out Boldin and Jennings arent solid and they are in the top 10-15) and TE position you can corner the market on those two positions and take chances with running backs and then in turn deal from your depth to get the studs you desire at RB.
As your league develops you might see similar trends as i have where people are cycling their running backs but their WR are remaining the same.
It would be worth noting how many teams are in the league before necessarily choosing one strategy over another. If it’s only a 10-team league, the running back pool is a bit deeper and therefore not as high a priority. In a 12-team league, running back needs to be a higher priority. Not saying it needs to be the highest priority. I rarely play in 10-team leagues, but when I do get talked into one I am amazed at the amount of players that are available in the mid-rounds; especially running backs.
@Jakyl: I couldn’t agree more, my dynasty league is only a 10 person league, so there are players available out in the waiver wire. Another flaw to the piece, but i would say that in a 12 team league you now might have to target WR’s bc if you put the top flight at 10 players then not every team is going to get 1 top WR where at there are by my count at least 12 RB’s that could serve as RB1 and you would be happy, whereas the same isnt said for WR
Another factor that needs to be factored into a strategy such as this is draft position. If you pick in the top four, than taking someone other than the four elite backs could lead to some issues, IMO. If you are drafting in the late first round, than there is more room to be creative with your strategy.
Another thing to consider: While we can all point to the horribly disappointing seasons by Matt Forte, Steve Slaton and others who were taken at the end of the first round (early second), what about Calvin Johnson? I was targeting him in a lot of leaguees last season in a similar WR-WR type strategy and got burned horribly. Will that even out over time in a dynasty league?? Who knows. While I’d like to think that things will improve for Calvin in 2010 and beyond, there are no guarantees. You can’t simply assume that a WR will be safer than a running back in those positions … it all depends on who is still available and what sort of trends are forming in the draft. This is why I usually stay away from a pre-determined strategy outside of the first round or two.
In terms of elite TE, I was in the same line of thinking as consigliere last season and paid decent money for Jason Witten in our dynasty league’s initial auction draft. JerMichael Finley was an afterthought in the draft and Brent Celek didn’t get picked until the final round of our rookie draft later in the summer. I would definitely rather have Finley or Celek long-term than Witten or Tony Gonzalez. Luckily, I was able to get Finley via trade for Witten.
As far as quarterbacks, there are always major upside options available after the elite guys are off the table. I strive every year to identify that guy and have been really successful for quite some time in doing this. Last year, my guy was Matt Schaub. This year, let others draft Drew Brees and Peyton Manning and other guys in the top three rounds when you get can a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco or even a Chad Henne much later.
Overall, I like Consigliere’s off-the-cuff, ninja-esque, against-the-grain attitude in attacking a dynasty draft. An initial dynasty draft us much different than a redraft league draft, and there us much to be said about taking a unique approach. Thanks Consigliere!
@jzak: I am glad you enjoy the article and i would like comment a little on what you said.
With grabbing Elite Players at any point in the draft, where there isnt a ton of turnover at that position you end up locking down that position for years… As the owner of Finley,22years old, lets me almost ignore that position in my rookie drafts and use the picks on building depth at other positions.
I also agree that you need to be like water at a draft, ready to take any shape. you have to see what people do ahead of you and adjust. If all the top QB’s are flying off the board but you like Jzak said are targeting someone else you can just let the run on QB’s go by and get your guy later.
As a Lions fan have faith Calvin Johnson will be top 5 fantasy this coming year. Quick trivia. Who was the only player to be Triple Covered this past NFL season. Answer: Calvin Johnson, nuff said…. He is a ManBearPig… NFL watch out not even Revis Island can contain him. The only thing that can stop him is the general Lions suckyness
Stating this: With grabbing Elite Players at any point in the draft, where there isnt a ton of turnover at that position you end up locking down that position for years… As the owner of Finley,22years old, lets me almost ignore that position in my rookie drafts and use the picks on building depth at other positions.”
You’re assuming he (Finley, elite player) stays on top of his game. That quote could’ve easily been attributed to Matt Forte last year at this time. Now, you’re on the other side in Forte’s fantasy value.
Randy McMichael, a TE example (there are plenty other exampls for other positions) burst onto the scene as a rookie for the Dolphins in 2002 and from 2004-06 was looking to be on an updaward climb to Pro Bowl stardum, until what? He just fell off the face of fantasy Earth. I guess that’s what happens to you when you get sent to St. Louis.
I would never ignore a position just because I felt I was secure. You can never have enough solid (elite) players, even it means you have 3 TEs. Having a good player could be good defense against league competitors. You may not be starting Finley, but at least he not scoring aganist you either.
Additionally, I highly, highly doubt Johnson was consistently triple-covered. I’m sure there were some two-deep zones (Tampa 2) that rolled to his side (that’s the same case for Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, even Terell Owens), but I promise no NFL defense is going to game plan a triple coverage scheme for one player. That leaves only one defensive back left help cover three to four other receivers/backs. That’s just silly.
@Jay-Mo: Well for starters, i never said they consistently triple covered Johnson, and the triple coverage i spoke of was Lb, CB, S… and it was more me pumping the lone stud for the Lions(lions fan here). Its also nice to see you qualify the other players that lined up on the outside for the Lions as wide receivers, bc i think there were high school kids that could catch better than those clowns. But i stand by the comment that the OC for Detroit came out and said CJ was triple covered at times, and was pretty much doubled all day long. Just showing a little love for the home town team that is all.
I guess my style in fantasy is that i am more risky, for Finley everything shouts he should be safe. Great QB, good system, solid numbers, freakish size and speed. So i am willing to take chances. Now if Finley were say on the Rams i would think much different of what he can do and his overall status. Am i going to get it right every time… no, but if i get it right there is a good chance i am going to be sitting pretty.
Also in ignoring a position, it comes down to how your draft plays out. If i am sitting there and all the good rbs, wrs and qbs are gone and i have a chance to take Gresham i am going to do it. I was just commenting that with an Elite player like that you can push it to the bottom of your needs list. Just because you have Peyton Manning doesnt mean you dont make trade for Aaron Rodgers if the price is right. But i most likely am not out actively pursuing a QB in that situation when there are some other areas that are in greater need.