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	<title>Chinstrap Ninjas &#187; bye week</title>
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		<title>The unspoken 11th rule to successful fantasy trading</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/the-unspoken-11th-rule-to-successful-fantasy-trading/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/the-unspoken-11th-rule-to-successful-fantasy-trading/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2009 03:56:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=973</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In mid-September, I wrote my Trade Tutorial, which outlined ten key rules to successful fantasy trading. And I continue to stand by those 10 guidelines (indepth discussion on each in my original Trade Tutorial story): 1. Always look to improve your team. 2. Know the other league owners. 3. Studs typically produce. 4. Other owner [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"></p>
<p align="justify">In mid-September, I wrote my <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-tutorial-the-ten-rules-of-successful-fantasy-trading/">Trade Tutorial</a>, which outlined ten key rules to successful fantasy trading.</p>
<p align="justify">And I continue to stand by those 10 guidelines (indepth discussion on each in my original <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-tutorial-the-ten-rules-of-successful-fantasy-trading/">Trade Tutorial </a>story):</p>
<p align="justify">1. Always look to improve your team.</p>
<p align="justify">2. Know the other league owners.</p>
<p align="justify">3. Studs typically produce.</p>
<p align="justify">4. Other owner is looking to improve his team, too.</p>
<p align="justify">5. Time is on your side.</p>
<p align="justify">6. No player is untradeable.</p>
<p align="justify">7. It is OK to counter an offer.</p>
<p align="justify">8. Watch the injury reports and transaction lists.</p>
<p align="justify">9. Evaluate other trades.</p>
<p align="justify">10. Get trusted feedback before pulling the trigger.</p>
<p align="justify">However, the list isn’t complete if I don’t introduce the 11th, and possibly most important rule. &#8230;<span id="more-973"></span></p>
<p align="justify">Between weeks three and four, I was in hot and heavy trade negotiations in my competitive dynasty money league. It is a PPR league, and I was gaining more and more of an appreciation for Detroit running back Kevin Smith.</p>
<p align="justify">After some discussions with his owner in the league, we hammered out the details on a potential trade. I was going to deal my Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts and Beanie Wells for his Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall and Jermichael Finley. In fact, the other owner offered me the deal. All I needed to do was to hit the accept button.</p>
<p align="justify">It was a slam-dunk trade from my standpoint. Sure losing Beanie Wells in a dynasty league could have hurt in a couple years. But Rashard Mendenhall and Kevin Smith are both young. At that point, Mendenhall was still Willie Parker’s backup. Everything in my gut was telling me to hit the accept button and do a couple fist pumps in celebration.</p>
<p align="justify">But I ignored that feeling. I decided to think about it a while. To get feedback from others. I talked to more than 20 people with varying levels of fantasy experience. Many were really leary of me dealing Beanie. In fact, the advice I got was really split.</p>
<p align="justify">I finally decided the next day to accept the deal.</p>
<p align="justify">It was too late. The owner got cold feet, pulled the offer and wouldn’t revisit the deal.</p>
<p align="justify">One day later, Rashard Mendenhall went off for 32 fantasy points (including receptions) against San Diego. Kevin Smith, who went into the game with Chicago injured, still rattled off two rushing TDs. Jermichael Finley broke out with a six-catch, 128-yard and one-TD performance against the Vikings. Meanwhile, Beanie Wells was on a bye week and Clinton Portis rushed for 98 yards and a respective nine fantasy points.</p>
<p align="justify">The point in all this?</p>
<p align="justify">When considering trades, never discount your gut reaction. Don’t feel you need to second-guess yourself if you feel in your heart (even if others aren’t as optimistic in their feedback).</p>
<p align="justify">Sure using such philosophy will blow up in your face from time to time. For example, I fully expected Bernard Scott to be the starting tailback in Cincinnati by this point in the season. However, you’ll find that over the course of a season, gut reactions to trades and even regular roster moves will work in your favor more often than not.</p>
<p align="justify">Last Saturday evening as I was finalizing my fantasy rosters, I noticed that I had Kris Brown (Houston kicker) starting in my dynasty league. Yet, the Texans were playing Arizona, and I’ve always avoided kickers in games where TDs would be emphasized over field goals. My immediate gut reaction was to replace Brown, and was eyeing either Dan Carpenter or Jay Feely, who I knew would both play in a much closer game conducive to field goals.</p>
<p align="justify">However, instead of listening to my gut reaction, I was lazy and left Brown in. He finished with three total fantasy points and my team tied in a heartbreaker. Either Carpenter or Feely would have won me the game.</p>
<p>So &#8230; when push comes to shove and you aren’t sure what to do with a fantasy football situation, do a gut check and don’t look back.</p>
<p></span></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/" title="NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (September 9, 2009)">NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-that-youll-see-happen-in-week-1/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1 (September 12, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
</ul>

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		</item>
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		<title>Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dissecting-fantasy-football-auction-leads-to-sound-drafting-advice/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dissecting-fantasy-football-auction-leads-to-sound-drafting-advice/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2009 04:57:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aaron rodgers]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=862</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everything I ever need to know I learned in high school biology class. I’m not talking about the details of photosynthesis or how the mighty mitochondria functions in a cell. Not anything about the symbiosis between living organisms or how deer ticks successfully transmit Lyme Disease. No, the lesson I found most valuable from the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everything I ever need to know I learned in high school biology class.</p>
<p>I’m not talking about the details of photosynthesis or how the mighty mitochondria functions in a cell. Not anything about the symbiosis between living organisms or how deer ticks successfully transmit Lyme Disease.</p>
<p>No, the lesson I found most valuable from the days of AP Biology was a simple mantra for tacking some of life’s great mysteries:</p>
<p>If you want to know more about something, dissect it.</p>
<p>It worked with frogs, lab mice and even a roadkill coyote my teacher brought in for us to slice apart. Sure, you can learn anatomy and physiology from a textbook and worksheets, but the only way to really understand how something works is to take it apart and, if you can, put it back together.</p>
<p>Fantasy football is no different, and to really stay one step ahead of the competition, it helps to dissect everything from draft results, roster moves, free agent pickups and trade proposals. You can learn about fantasy sports from a magazine or newspaper article, but you’ll never really understand it without doing the real thing and then dissecting it.<span id="more-862"></span></p>
<p>Take, for example, the Daily Item fantasy football league. Consisting of league managers from all sorts of backgrounds, professions and experience levels, the league is made of people who live in the coverage area of The Daily Item newspaper. Each summer, we hold a live auction draft to kick off the new season using a $200 salary cap.</p>
<p>Auction-style drafting is becoming more and more popular, and for good reason. The strategies can be complex and endless. The format encourages people to interact more at a draft and get to know each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Everyone has an equal shot at drafting any player. Plus, another cool aspect is that auction fantasy football drafts are like snowflakes &#8230; no two are the same.</p>
<p>With owners ranging in age from nine to the mid-50s, and with varying levels of fantasy sports experience, the Daily Item league draft was an interesting experiment in auction mentality.</p>
<p>As a way to better understand the chaotic science of auction drafting, let me take a few moments to dissect this draft (a 12-teamer) on a team-by-team, and strategy-by-strategy basis (I won’t cover every team, but will discuss some of the main strategy elements).</p>
<p><strong>Seth:</strong> The epitome of hard-line auction drafting, Seth went into the draft with a short list of specific players he wanted and wasn’t swayed when the bidding got hot and heavy. He honed in on Frank Gore and didn’t back down until he bought the San Franscisco RB for $45. He then pounced on Brian Westbrook and bid like a pitbull bites, not letting go until he got what he wanted &#8230; in this case Westbrook for $40. Considering that Brandon Jacobs went to a different team for $46 and many of the other higher-end RBs went in the high 40s to low 50s in price, the Gore-Westbrook combo wasn’t a bad buy. Seth used similar determination in landing Peyton Manning for $37 and wasn’t swayed when Tony Gonzalez’s value kept climbing past the $20-plateau. In fact, Seth stiff-armed the Gonzo competition with a quick, unexpected $40 bid that left many in the room scoffing. When you take a hard-line approach to an auction draft, you run the risk of other owners purposely running up the values of certain players that they know you really want. Regardless, Seth walked away with a really solid starting roster with just one concerning area moving forward: his receivers and bench depth are all dollar-basement investments. By carefully watching the waiver wire for emerging WR talent, and if his starters can avoid injuries, Seth could be a season-long contender.</p>
<p><strong>Jason:</strong> Focused on running backs and RB depth (the league starts two RB, no flex), Jason developed his team around a nucleus of three strong halfbacks in Michael Turner ($57), Clinton Portis ($35) and Kevin Smith ($28). Of course, that depth and peace-of-mind at RB came a cost, literally, leaving Jason just $80 to fill out the rest of his roster. He invested $36 in his starting QB (Aaron Rodgers), which turned out to be about the going value for a player of Rodgers’ talent level &#8230; although the next tier of QB mostly went in the mid-20s. Needing value WRs to fill out the starting roster, Jason went with DeSean Jackson ($13) and Lee Evans ($11). An $8 investment in Owen Daniels left Jason with a competitive team that is a breakout WR short of being a possible title contender.</p>
<p><strong>Jake</strong><strong>:</strong> Looking at investing heavily in his fantasy starting corps at RB and WR, Jake landed a value in Maurice-Jones Drew at $51 (Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson went for $61 and $60, respectively). He followed with Reggie Wayne at $40, Ronnie Brown at $29 and Dwayne Bowe at $26. What hurt Jake’s team somewhat was that he was helping run the auction spreadsheet and got into the bidding action late in the draft. While there was an incentive for those who finished with the most leftover salary cap money (waiver order was based on leftover cash), Jake was in a position where solid QB options were few and far between. He left the draft with dollar QBs Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell, but also left $26 on the table. While that was good enough for top waiver priority heading into the season, it also left him questionable at QB.</p>
<p><strong>Jeff:</strong> Employing a “shotgun” approach to the auction draft, Jeff peppered bids throughout the afternoon, developing a roster filled with balance, but also lacking knock-out power players. His most expensive player was Marques Colston ($30), followed by a $23 Kurt Warner, $22 Derrick Ward, $20 Antonio Gates, $17 Marshawn Lynch and TJ Houshmanzadeh, $15 Beanie Wells, $13 Vincent Jackson and an $11 Knowshon Moreno. Jeff got some good deals and has an incredibly balanced and deep roster. On the flip side, deciding weekly matchups could be quite stressful with so many players around the same talent level. Also, he could struggle during non-bye weeks against rosters with less depth, but a higher-priced grouping of starting players. Of course, drafting a team filled with good bargain players could make Jeff a go-to target for league owners who are hoping to wheel-and-deal.</p>
<p><strong>Rick: </strong>One team that Jeff may struggle to match up with during non-bye weeks is Rick’s. Focused on developing the strongest starting nucleus possible, Rick was the only owner to pounce on three $40 players in Steve Slaton ($49), Drew Brees ($41) and LaDanian Tomlinson ($40). He filled out his primary starters with Wes Welker and Chad Ochocinco (both at $18). Joseph Addai at $21 provides some insurance for an aging Tomlison and a $6 investment in Jay Cutler as a backup QB was a great value. At this point, Rick was forced to fill out the roster with dollar players &#8230; leaving him possible susceptible during bye weeks and depending on possible injuries.</p>
<p><strong>John:</strong> My team fell into a rut I’m familiar with at auction drafts. My strategy is always to wait in drafts with the hopes that owners will break their accounts early and good value players will fall between the cracks. However, I always get burned on a player early in my drafting, and this time it was Matt Schaub, who I love as a sleeper this year, but found myself stuck in a bidding binge that left me with a $25 Schaub when other similar upside QBs went for less (Kurt Warner for $23, Matt Ryan for $20). This left me gunshy for the next several rounds of bidding, and I found myself in too many bidding wars with other owners who procrastinated in the draft and were scrambling for starters. In spite of this, I was happy with snagging Calvin Johnson ($39), Roddy White ($28) and Jason Witten ($18) at what I felt were really good values. Of course, this left me a decent amount of money, but no real backs to stake my claim to (Steve Slaton was still on the table, and I wimped out when Slaton went for $49 &#8230; in hindsight, I should have went for it). I wound up spending $58 total on Ray Rice, Willie Parker, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Bernard Scott and LeRon McClain (who I since dropped for Willis McGahee). That total would have been much less if someone hadn’t been bidding me up on Mendenhall, knowing I needed him to handcuff to Willie Parker (I wound up blowing $19 on Rashard), but still left $11 on the table. Combining that total with the $28 I blew on Parker-Mendenhall, I could have gotten something woth more upside at RB1 (like a Clinton Portis, Pierre Thomas, Marion Barber, etc.).</p>
<p>So, let’s recap the lessons learned from this fantasy league dissection &#8230;</p>
<p>1. Go into your auction draft with a plan. It’s OK to target certain guys that you feel will have a big season, and it’s OK to overpay somewhat on them if you feel you can create the best possible starting lineup. Just be careful not to tip your hand too much since there are guys in every league that would love to watch you overspend on “your guy.”</p>
<p>2. There’s a fine line between drafting a killer starting unit while neglecting your bench and drafting a team with super depth, but lukewarm starters. Pinpoint certain players you feel will be good value players and target them to represent your depth (guys like rookies i.e. Moreno ($11) or Wells ($15) or Percy Harvin ($8), up-and-coming players — like a Ray Rice ($15), and guys in improved situations — Trent Edwards ($10)).</p>
<p>3. Players taken earlier in the draft (and I’ve seen this in most every auction draft I’ve played in) seem to go cheaper than those left until late. Seems that more people than you’d imagine are procrasting drafters, while owners who take risks early get some good bargains. For example, Greg Jennings was one of the first players bid on, and went for $33. That’s just a hair more than Marques Colston ($30) and Dwayne Bowe ($26), who are lightyears behind Jennings on my rankings chart.</p>
<p>4. Have a list of players at every position who have good upside, but should go for $5 or less. If you do fall into a trap and spend more than you were hoping for at some point or another, this will give you solid fallback options. In the Daily Item league, players such as Kevin Walter, Lance Moore, Hakeem Nicks, Donnie Avery, Fred Taylor, Bernard Scott, Brett Favre, Earl Bennett, John Carlson, Zach Miller and Brent Celek all went for $5 or less and each could perform at a really good value.</p>
<p>5. Don’t plan on wasting any more than a dollar or two on your kicker or defense. Steven Gostkowski went for $3, and most kickers went for a buck. Defenses went for a little more (by a dollar or two), but there are plenty of viable options at defense that weren’t even drafted.</p>
<p><em>What are your auction draft tips? Did you draft recently and want your team/league dissected? Drop us a line!</em></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/" title="NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (September 9, 2009)">NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/projected-all-value-second-half-fantasy-studs/" title="Projected all-value second-half fantasy studs (October 30, 2009)">Projected all-value second-half fantasy studs</a> (1)</li>
</ul>

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		<title>One mistake to avoid in your next draft [FFB]</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/one-mistake-to-avoid-in-your-next-draft-ffb/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/one-mistake-to-avoid-in-your-next-draft-ffb/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:44:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fantasy football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[axiom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brain teaser]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[reggie bush]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[ronnie brown]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=678</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[  You see, there are certain fantasy football experts who live and die by the ‘rule’ that you never draft two of any starter with the same bye week. Their mantra is that you must closely watch possible bye-week conflicts, and draft accordingly. Therefore, for example, if you are drafting eighth out of a 12-team [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"></span></p>
<p align="justify">You see, there are certain fantasy football experts who live and die by the ‘rule’ that you never draft two of any starter with the same bye week. Their mantra is that you must closely watch possible bye-week conflicts, and draft accordingly.</p>
<p align="justify">Therefore, for example, if you are drafting eighth out of a 12-team league, and you happily draft Frank Gore at spot 1.08 — you better avoid any other running back with a Week 6 bye. So, in the second round, at pick 2.04, you aren’t allowed to draft Ronnie Brown, Marion Barber or Joseph Addai.</p>
<p align="justify">Yet, why handicap yourself? If you feel that Ronnie Brown is easily the most talented remaining player when you draft in the second round of said imaginary draft, than why not take him? Why not anchor your team with the best running back tandem possible?</p>
<p align="justify">Why not choose the sunscreen?</p>
<p align="justify">You see, in the illustration above, the decision between sunscreen and an umbrella is simple. Are you willing to sacrifice one day out of your vacation to improve the other six &#8230; or do you fixate on the one day of rain in the forecast, take the umbrella and then miss out on extended hours of basking in the sun for most of the trip?</p>
<p align="justify">It’s much the same way in fantasy leagues. Why limit your team 13-out-of-14 regular season games just so you don’t have two players on the same bye week? Why reach for Reggie Bush or Brandon Jacobs if you feel that Ronnie Brown or Marion Barber is the far superior pick?</p>
<p align="justify">Those who consider themselves fantasy experts are all about rules for drafting the perfect team. As if they are trying to justify their own existence, they write catchy fantasy columns listing tips and ideas and suggestions and strategies on how to kill the competition on draft day.</p>
<p align="justify">And as your next draft pick nears, you get ulcers in your stomach and pull clumps of hair from your head as you wade through the countless barrage of tips and strategies, trying frantically to narrow down the selection.</p>
<p align="justify">However, it is all so simple. When drafting, simply choose the best player available that fills a need on your roster.</p>
<p align="justify">End of story.</p>
<p align="justify">Sure, glancing at bye weeks can be a helpful tool later in your respective drafts if you don’t want to lose three bench spots picking up a backup tight end, kicker and defense for a one-week fill-in. But then again, in most cases, roster spots usually become available over the course of the season as sleeper picks fall into comas and certain players catch the injury bug.</p>
<p align="justify">The bottom line is to walk into your draft ready to have fun, ready to select the best player available that fills a need and ready to bask in the sun of knowing that you chose the best possible team without regrets or hesitations.</p>
<p align="justify">Oh, and don’t forget the sunscreen.</p>
<p><em>What is your opinion about bye weeks and drafting? Which fantasy drafting tip or strategy do you live by? Which drafting tips or strategies are hogwash in your book?</em></p>
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<p align="justify">First, a little brain teaser.</p>
<p align="justify">You are going to take a seven-day trip to the beach. Checking the long-range weather forecast, six of the days will be sunny and hot. Not a cloud in the sky. The other day will bring steady, heavy rain. As you finish packing, you realize you only have room for one more item. You are left with sunscreen and an umbrella. Which do take along?</p>
<p>Now, you may be wondering what this has to do with fantasy football. Bear with me. It’s my poor excuse of an illustration on why I hate — no, loathe — a certain age-old fantasy drafting axiom.<span id="more-678"></span></p>

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	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
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