You ain’t seen nothing yet.

We’re on the verge of experiencing something truly amazing in 2010 and beyond. There’s a new stable of able running backs in the NFL, and you can thank an opportunistic bunch of rookie 2009 backs for giving us what will be quite a good show in the coming months and years … and for giving us something to debate right now.

So, which of the the following young backs will be the next elite fantasy force? Let the debating begin …

First, let’s look at the candidates.

Knowshon Moreno, Denver. Given the clearest path to fantasy relevance, Moreno was solid during the 2009 campaign. He produced the most yards rushing of all the rookie backs in 2009 (965) along with touchdowns (7). He also has a great chance of keeping his job. Correll Buckhalter isn’t a major threat for carries in that offense, and regardless of coach Josh McDaniels’ history of RBBCs, there is no indication that the Broncos are actively looking for another back. The biggest knock against Moreno was his yards per carry, which hovered around 4 all season (including 2.7, 2.2 and 2.0 performances in weeks 14, 15 and 16, respectively) and finished at 3.8. Some question Moreno’s explosiveness and homerun threat capabilities.

Beanie Wells, Arizona. Stuck behind over-achieving Tim Hightower through the first half of the season, Wells started to come on strong as the season progressed. He finished the year with a 4.6 yards per carry total in regular season games and a rookie-RB best eight touchdowns. He produced 861 yards rushing during the regular season on 193 carries. It was apparent that Wells has taken the starting job and doesn’t plan to look back. Beanie isn’t as big a threat in the passing game as others on this list and does have a history of injury concerns, although he had no trouble avoiding the IR in his first pro season.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia. Out of all the rookie backs in 2009, McCoy easily led the pack in receptions (41) and receiving yards (347). Both are indicative of what McCoy could do in a system known for utilizing a receiver out of the backfield. He also rushed for 664 yards and four touchdowns on 161 carries in 2009. In the six games where LeSean replaced an injured Brian Westbrook as the primary starter, he averaged 12.45 fantasy points and scored three touchdowns. Westbrook was recently released into free agency, paving the way for McCoy to emerge as a starting option at the moment, but there are numerous whisperings out of the City of Brotherly Love that the Eagles will be actively shopping for a veteran RB and depending on who they import, McCoy’s value could swing drastically on this list and overall.

Shonn Greene, New York Jets. Greene’s 304 yards on 54 carries and two touchdowns in three playoff appearances turned the collective head of fantasy owners everywhere, but Greene was successful well before that. He averaged over five yards per carry during the regular season, with 636 yards rushing during that span. That was all while Thomas Jones was sharing carries. Jones will not be back in Jetsland in 2010, opening up the doors for potential eliteness by Mr. Greene.

Felix Jones, Dallas. OK … he wasn’t a rookie in 2009, but Jones qualifies for this list because he’s in the same age bracket (same age as McCoy and Moreno, two years younger than Greene and one older than Beanie), he has taken over as his team’s probably starting back in 2010 and … well … this is my list and I can do whatever I want. Jones averaged a full yard per carry more than anyone else on this list during the regular season and was electric in the playoffs (217 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries … a whopping 7.2 yards per carry). Due to a declining skillset by Marion Barber and Jones’ playoff breakout, it is safe to assume that he’ll receive the lion’s share of carries in 2010, and could be golden if he can avoid the injury bug that has struck at times during his career.

So, we have five exceptionally talented young backs … all with potential to become something great in the NFL. All, amazingly enough, have found themselves in the fast lane to becoming their teams’ respective starting RB in 2010 and beyond.

But two questions remain … which has the best chance of becoming an elite fantasy RB and how many of these players will be top-flight stat options during their careers?

LeSean McCoy has the potential to be a big asset, especially in PPR leagues, however, I believe he will find himself in an RBBC quicker than any of these other options. The Eagles are looking at a wide variety of available talents, including Chester Taylor, Thomas Jones, LaDanian Tomlinson and others. They may even snag a bigger back in the draft and there have been strong rumors that they’ll pursue highly talented, yet highly troubled Marshawn Lynch out of Buffalo. None of this bodes well for McCoy, who was decent while replacing Westbrook in 2009, but not as dazzling as many expected or hoped for.

Knowshon Moreno is, at the moment, the leading horse in this discussion simply because he has more playing time under his belt than most of the guys on this list and should remain the unquestioned starter on his team. However, many expected Matt Forte to be the class of the 2008 rookies last season as a sophomore, and he was less than stellar. The one stat I can’t let go with Moreno was his yards per carry … which was easily the worst of the five on this list.

Shonn Greene is quickly moving up the dynasty rankings thanks to Jones’ impending release and hype surrounding his impressive playoff performances. What many people overlook with Greene that he recorded zero receptions … that’s right, none … during the entire regular season. Sure, Michael Turner was able to produce without being a major piece of the receiving game for the Falcons in 2008 and, when not injured, in 2009. However, his ceiling would be so much higher if he was also a part of the pass-catching option. I see Greene as the next Michael Turner from a receptions and overall upside standpoint. Greene will be elite, but not a top one or two-type fantasy back.

Felix Jones has yet to be a primary back for a full season in the NFL and has suffered injuries each season even in smaller roles. The sky is the limit for Jones if he can avoid missing time … it is just hard to project that over a full season. Still, his incredible yards per carry are impossible to ignore, and I fully expect Jones to be an elite fantasy back sooner or later depending on how he’s used and if the Cowboys can keep Jones fresh. With Barber and Tashard Choice at their disposal, the Cowboys shouldn’t be hard-pressed to keep Jones on the field more than off it. This is why I predicted Jones could be the 2010 version of Ray Rice in my super-sleepers post.

This leaves Beanie Wells, who may not be an elite receiving option, but definitely does enough in the passing game to reach a higher level of play in his NFL career than the Michael Turners or Shonn Greenes. Removing his six-for-19 performance in spot duty in week 17 against Green Bay, Beanie was an impressive 114-for-602 in weeks seven through 16 if you take out his weeks 12 and 13 games against run-stingy Tennessee and Minnesota – that’s 5.3 yards per carry during most of that stretch. He scored six TDs in the final seven regular-season games that counted for anything. In reading commentary at numerous sports and fantasy-related websites about all of those on this list, Beanie Wells got the best overall vibe, including one site, which said that he’s 90 percent of Adrian Peterson. Some point to a questionable injury history for Beanie, but he did stay healthy against some of the best defenders in the NFL during the second half of the season and has more of a chance of completing a full 16-game slate than Felix Jones, in my opinion.

So, if I had to gamble on which of these five young studs will be the next super-fantasy commodity, I’d place my money on Wells, although that could change at a moment’s notice depending on how other situations play out.

And out of the group, I see Greene, Jones and Wells being the three who will become potential top-five fantasy RBs at some point during their careers.

Want more running back discussion? Check out my early 2010 dynasty RB rankings here.

What is your opinion? Which of these guys will be the next elite fantasy option? We’d love to hear your opinion in the space below.

Related posts

• Three sleepers you don’t want to sleep on [FFB] (4)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• Week 2 Waiver Wonders: Guys to grab now, celebrate later (1)

It was 12-year-old who had just finished using a Coleman propane cook stove. Within seconds of turning it off, he decided to touch the burner, jumping back and screaming in pain a split second later.

A Scout leader ran over to console the crying kid, asking what happened.

The 12-year-old says, “I did this,” and put the same hand back on the hot burner.

Stupidity, some say, is defined by doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

So I wonder why I keep drafting Kansas City’s talented yet consistently underachieving Alex Gordon as a sleeper third baseman every year, it seems, since the dawn of time.

And the sad thing is, I’ll be looking to draft him again this year — along with these guys (check out my sleeper picks at catcher, first base and second base, as well):

Alex Gordon has burned plenty of fantasy baseball managers, and will be bypassed by many in your respective drafts, for good reason. Ep is one who plans to avoid Gordon in 2010. However, based on talent alone, he may be falling far enough in most drafts to have value. Many projected him as a sleeper last season and he quickly disappointed with a .095 batting average through April before surgery to repair a tear in his right hip cartilage. He was back in July, but struggled and was demoted to the minors. At that point, Gordon totally fell off most people’s radar … and there’s a good chance that your leaguemates may have missed his .280 average with three homers and 11 RBI in the final month of the season. Not stats to get super-giddy about, but if Gordon follows through with excessive weight training this preseason like he promised at the end of the 2009 campaign, he may be able to tap into the vast potential that saw him drafted second overall in 2005. Not saying you should draft him as your starting third baseman, but somewhere in the last two rounds as a guy who could surprise with around 20 homers and double-digit steals if the planets align.

Jake Fox, now with the Oakland Athletics, is another player with lots of potential … enough so that ep had Fox on his radar five months ago.  Fox destroyed Triple-A competition last year with the Cubs to the tune of .409 and 17 homers in just 45 games. He fared well in spot duty in the majors, but was buried beneath Aramis Ramirez on the depth chart. His trade to Oakland will provide the extra playing time he needs to excel, and as an extra bonus, Fox is eligible at OF as well as 3B in 2010 (although his value will be at third). He’s a player worth taking a risk on late in your draft.

Gordon Beckham will technically play second base this season for the White Sox, but will still be eligible at third. One of the most valuable mid-season pickups for fantasy owners in 2009, Beckham’s 14 home runs surprised even the most optimistic of projectionists. He does not have a track record of going deep and lacks a true power swing, but Beckham still easily could provide a 20/10 (HR/SB) campaign in 2010 … putting him in decent company among third basemen.

Ryan Zimmerman plays for the Nationals, but he doesn’t show it. One of just a few bright spots for Washington in 2009, Zimmerman showed plenty of power ability with 33 home runs (tied with Evan Longoria and behind just Mark Reynolds in terms of home runs by a third baseman). Some would consider Zimmerman a sell-high type player after jacking the ball more than twice what he accomplished in 2008 … however Zimmerman was scorching in the second half of 2009 (.297, 18 homers, 54 RBI) and improved his overall season batting average for the second consecutive season. These trends tell me that Zimmerman has plenty of potential left in the tank for 2010 and beyond. He may offer any speed potential, but Zimmerman is still a very solid value option for 2010.

One player you won’t see on any of my teams in 2010 is David Wright. Sure, he’s averaged a .311 batting average and 25 stolen bases over the past three seasons, but his major power outage (from 33 long balls in 2008 to 10 in 2009) is a very bad sign and the Mets continue to flounder to put talent around Wright. While I never signal out any player as a guy I’ll never own (for the right price, every player has value), but Wright will continue to be drafted as a top-three third baseman, and there is little to believe that players drafted ways, ways after him won’t produce similar numbers. ep agrees.

What is your opinion on third base in 2010? Who are your sleepers at third base? Do you see third base as surprisingly shallow as second base is surprisingly deep? We’d love to hear your comments below.

Related posts

• Fantasy outfield values you need to remember in 2010 (2)
• FBB: My unsexy approach to drafting a catcher in 2010 (12)
• Fantasy shortstop value players that need to be on your radar screen (4)
• Week One waiver wonders: Guys to grab before gametime (0)
• Royals’ Bannister a team-killer or Stealthy Ninja? [FBB] (1)

And, for the first time in my fantasy career, I found myself giving advice so unrisky, non-dramatic and un-ninja-like, I felt sick to my stomach.

I still do.

I’ll hate myself for saying this out loud, in e-print, but this is the year that I …

… burn an earlier pick than normal on one of the four elite catchers.

Now, when I say “elite” catcher, let me get specific.

I mean Joe Mauer … he of the wicked .365 batting average. He of the career-high 28 home runs in 2009 (almost double what he jacked in 2007 and 2008 combined … something a little fishy about that?). Mauer is a workaholic who will produce for fantasy owners at such an elite pace (although I do expect a dropoff in home run totals), that having him gives you an instant boost.

Brian McCann is similar. Twenty-one dingers, a .281 batting average and playing for the prolific Braves, McCann will continue to be a beacon of fantasy consistency in 2010.

Victor Martinez had solid stats last year with the Red Sox, and considering the protection he gets in that lineup (Bay or no Bay), Martinez will continue to be a top-notch catcher in fantasy circles.

Matt Wieters may be the most risky of these top-four, but his star is quickly rising. Here’s betting he doubles the nine home runs he produced last season, and continues to work on his batting average. Playing for the Orioles doesn’t give him a lot of protection, but he is still an exciting player that can play at an elite level sooner rather than later.

After those four players, the dropoff is so severe, in my humble opinion, that I’m willing to burn a third-round pick on Mauer or Martinez or perhaps even McCann. I’d be willing to reach into the fifth or possibly even fourth round for Wieters.

That goes against all conventional teaching from the fantasy baseball days of yore … when you let Joe Draftaholic take an elite catcher early in the draft while you are padding other key positional stats … and then snag the next up-and-coming catcher in later rounds and not losing much in the way of statistical dropoff.

But there is such disparity in the catcher ranks this year … more than ever in my opinion, that I think you put yourself in a better position with one of the four guys mentioned above. For example, let’s say you snag a Jason Bay or Raul Ibanez in the third round and wait on catching. Let’s hypothetically say you land Mike Napoli or Geovanny Soto in the later rounds. Your combo of Bay-Soto or Bay Napoli will produce less, in my opinion, than if you take a Maurer in the early third round and then turn around two rounds later and snag an Adam Dunn-esque player. You get just as many (if not much more in the home run department) and Mauer’s batting average helps offset Dunn’s lack of plate discipline.

Sure there are many exceptions to the rule, and I’m not advocating that everyone go on a mad drafting spree for the four top catchers in 2010. There are a few consolation prizes at the position that I could live with. Including:

Kurt Suzuki is one of just a handful of catchers who’s stats are actually going in the right direction. Home runs are climbing, stolen bases quadrupled in 2009 (eight to two in 2008) and batting average is hovering around a respectable .274. He’s young and has not met his ceiling yet.

Miguel Montero made the best of increased playing time when Chris Snyder went down with injury last season for the D-backs. He hit a career-high 16 dingers and posted a sweet .294 at the plate. He also has a much higher ceiling than many at the position, especially since he has yet to start an entire season in the bigs.

There are a few sleeper candidates who could break out this season. John Baker has some detractors but also could open things up in 2010. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has yet to produce a full season without injury and has tons of potential … although he has seen some stat dropoffs that scare me. Kelly Shoppach can’t hit righties and has a few other deficiencies, but has some untapped power potential that could be drool-inducing. Buster Posey is a rookie with boatloads of potential, but just what will his role be in 2010, especially since Bengie Molina is still officially in town?

Again, someone should slap me for being so un-ninja with this post. For suggesting that you should actually go with the crowd and pay a somewhat higher price for one of the catching elite. However, I just can’t advocate anyone else at this position. Hopefully our ninja viewers here can set me straight.

What is your opinion on the catching class of 2010?

Related posts

• Fantasy shortstop value players that need to be on your radar screen (4)
• Fantasy outfield values you need to remember in 2010 (2)
• Third base fantasy baseball values you can’t afford to overlook (3)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)

Everything about the guy was huge: Huge biceps, huge tattoos on his biceps, huge bulging wall-like structure where his neck should have been. He wore a dirty white wife beater. His hair was slicked straight back with what looked like 10W40 motor oil. He was even missing a tooth.

I swerved away from the front door and instead walked to the side door. The only person in sight was a 40-something balding man in a white dress shirt and Smurf-blue tie. I walked out the side door and drove home.

During the drive, I realized how silly I had been. Just because the guy at the front door looked as though he could snap my neck with his pinkie finger didn’t mean he was going to. The white-collar dude at the side door could have been just as unstable. Packing a Glock. Ready to go on some inner-office shooting spree. You don’t need Arnold Schwartzenegger’s biceps to pull the trigger on a handgun or drive a knife into someone’s ribcage.

Perceptions can blind us.

For example, heading into this season, I was as intimidated of Cedric Benson on the football field as much as I would be of arm-wrestling Betty White at a Golden Girls reunion.

But Cedric Benson has driven many a fantasy owner’s teams into early playoff contention. Everyone knows what you get when you draft Adrian Peterson … but snagging a Cedric Benson late provides instant megavalue and gives owners some depth and flexibility that helps propel them into title contention.

Look at the teams who are kicking tail in your respective leagues. I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts that you’ll find players such as Ray Rice, Matt Schaub and Benson on many of those rosters.

But that doesn’t help moving forward. To take out the competition, you need to identify the next crop of soon-to-be fantasy studs.

Here is my second-half super fantasy value team of players that you should be targeting via trades in your respective fantasy leagues:

Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit: Currently 15th among all running backs in PPR scoring formats, Kevin Smith is on the cusp of skyrocketing in value. The main reason is because Smith is one of just a few backs who have the only set of keys to his respective team’s running games. There are no RBBC in Detroit, and Smith has shown that he can be productive as the primary weapon. Both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were sidelined with injuries, but both are on the verge of returning, which will help open up the running lanes. Plus, Smith has arguably the easiest remaining schedules when it comes to run defenses. The time to buy low may be closing fast, however, as Smith should explode statistically as early as this week against St. Louis.

Jermichael Finley, TE, Green Bay. Finley broke out in a major way several weeks ago against Minnesota … going for over 120 yards and a score. He catapulted past Donald Lee as primary tight end and overall offensive weapon for a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who will only expedite Finley’s skill set. The young tight end’s value took a small dip when he left last week’s game with knee injury, and he will likely miss this week’s contest against the Vikings. However, expect him to tear things up when he returns in Week 9 and will be a factor in many a fantasy playoff game.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta. Currently 15th in scoring among fantasy QBs, Ryan finds himself in a situation that should propel him into fantasy stardom. First, he has plenty of weapons in the passing game. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are both healthy and primed for a strong second half. Michael Turner is good enough to keep defenses honest, but not dominating in the TD department like he was last season … leaving plenty of opportunities for Ryan in the red zone. Finally, after this week’s matchup against a surprisingly adept New Orleans passing game, Ryan’s schedule gets noticably easier moving forward.

Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota. Currently 14th in scoring among receivers in PPR formats, Rice’s value continues to rise as it becomes apparent that he is Favre’s go-to receiver in Minny moving forward. He ranks ninth among receivers in receptions, many of which have come in the past couple weeks. Favre will lock in to Rice early and often against Green Bay this week and the only week that Rice should struggle statistically is Minnesota’s Week 9 bye.

Which players are you targeting in fantasy football leagues?

Related posts

• Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (2)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)

Had several really cool posts planned for this week, and got to none of them. I want to apologize to the ninja nation for this up front.

My main article idea was to highlight several players who are in an odd do-or-die situation for Week Four. Little weird being in fantasy do-or-dies just a quarter of the way into the season, but these guys need to show us something this weekend, or face the scorn of fantasy football owners everywhere:

1. Matt Forte. Very pedestrian this season and chants of “sophomore slump” are starting to ricochet in fantasyland. This week’s matchup with Detroit is huge for Forte and his owners. Bounce back in a big way and soothe anxious fantasy owners, or flop against one of the most porous run defenses and see Forte’s value drop like a sack of red potatoes.

2. Steve Slaton. Another sophomore slump candidate, Slaton at least showed a little life last week. Time time, he is facing perhaps the easiest defense he’s seen this year. The Texans will feed the ball to Slaton … if he struggles to provide stats, it could be a long season for Slaton owners.

3. Rashard Mendenhall. Willie Parker is out with an injury. Mendenhall was in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse last week and has been and overall fantasy flop. This is his one opportunity to show everyone that he’s not the Steelers’ version of Curtis Enis. Those who have Mendy in dynasty leagues will find out quick if they made a wise investment, or if Mendenhall will reek of bust.

4. Clinton Portis. Perhaps past his “do-or-die” opportunity, Portis is struggling with some injures and is questionable for today’s game. The Giants shredded the Buccaneers on the ground, and if Portis plays, he needs to show everyone that he has the ability to bounce back stat-wise.

5. Brett Favre. The spotlight will be solely on him, and if he’s smart, he’ll do everything possible to turn that spotlight onto Adrian Peterson for this game. Sure Favre will be super motivated to do well, but he also struggles when he feels the need to throw everyone on his back and start chucking the ball everywhere. A poor performance here, and Favre will be dreaming of days back on his ranch mowing grass and wearing Wrangler jeans.

Related posts

• Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (2)
• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)
• Trade Tutorial: The ten rules of successful fantasy trading (1)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)

So, out of respect for your time (and because I don’t feel all that well at the moment), I’ll cut straight to the chase this week.

The following are my Week Two Waiver Wonders (a.k.a. guys you may want to grab now before lockdown so you don’t have to fight with other league owners for these guys Tuesday).

1. Like a small child, I plan on repeating this name over and over and over until fantasy owners get so sick of it, they pick up Earl Bennett. They’ll be thanking me as the season goes on – especially in PPR leagues. Bennett will continue to be highly targeted this week against the Steelers, and without Troy Polamalu on the field (and considering how well Justin Gage and Kenny Britt faired last week against Pittsburgh), I expect Bennett to turn some heads. He’s still only owned in 34 percent of all Yahoo leagues.
2. You would expect that Chester Taylor would be owned in more than 34 percent of Yahoo leagues, especially considering everyone’s obsession with handcuffing and some fears (which I have) that Adrian Peterson won’t make it through the season unscathed. Sunday, against the Lions, Taylor will get plenty of action in garbage time and will make the most of it.
3. One of the most talented players in the NFL, Chris Henry continually opens mouth and inserts foot … getting in his own way with legal issues and off-field theatrics. Last week, the highly touted sleeper finished with just one catch for 18 yards, and suddenly everyone dives off the bandwagon. Give him some time. This week, the Packers defense will be tough, but the Bengals should find themselves in situations of airing out the game to keep up with the Green Bay offense. Henry (owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues) will see his stock rise.
4. As a Reggie Wayne fan, I’d love to live in some fantasy world where Wayne continunes to get a zillion targets per game with Anthony Gonzalez sidelined. However, defense will start clamping down on Wayne and Dallas Clark and Peyton Manning will need to lean on Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. It remains to be seen how they will be utilized in the offense, but it wouldn’t hurt to stockpile both guys (if you have the room) until their roles are more defined. Garcon is owned in just three percent of Yahoo leagues, Collie in one percent.
5. Another name I plan on repeating until I brainwash you all is Mark Sanchez. The QB mojo and bravado I talked about here was on display last week against the Texans. I predict Sanchez will be one of those players that will deal with bad matchups and tricky defense with a calm collectedness that allows him to excel both in real life and as a backup QB option in fantasy. He’s owned in just 34 percent of Yahoo leagues, and I wonder what that number would fall to if you took out dynasty leagues from the stats.
6. Those expecting Darren McFadden to become a truly featured back and sleeper for the season were rudely interrupted by some guy named Michael Bush. Bush has been a sleeper candidate in the past, but it looks like the Raiders are finally committing to get him the ball, especially in third down and goal line situations. Bush is owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues, but expect that to change very soon after the Raiders play against the Chiefs this weekend.
7. Speaking of situations where backs see their carries cut into, I fully expect Jamaal Charles to become a bigger part of the Chiefs offensive plan moving forward. That theory will be tested Sunday as the Chiefs play the Raiders’ suspect run defense. Johnson will still get his carries, but Charles is much more a threat in the passing game and offers dynamics that the aging Johnson doesn’t anymore.

Related posts

• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)

Well, I am a trade-aholic. I get a rush every time a trade is accepted by both parties. I’ve completed all kinds of trades in the past, with mixed results. I have learned a lot of life lessons from the world of trading in fantasy sports, and since the season is finally here — and everyone will be looking for a competitive edge, I felt it was a good time to share some pointers.

Trade Rule #1: Always look to improve your team. Seems simple enough, but then again, it can be really easy to forget if someone dangles one of your favorite players in front of you. If you feel that your team needs a boost at running back, than don’t reach on a trade to improve a different position. Don’t simply pull the trigger on a deal because you’re bored or because your favorite player is involved — your team’s final score each week is the only thing that really matters.

Trade Rule #2: Know your other league owners. This is much easier if you are in a league with people you know outside of fantasy sports or if you have a live draft. You know the type — the Buffalo Bills fan who wears his new Terrell Owens jersey to the draft. Taking note of this could be a crucial move on your part — because there is a good chance the same guy will overpay for Owens in a trade at some point during the season. I live in central PA, and never mind getting a few Steelers or Eagles on my respective teams, because there are at least one or two diehard Pittsburgh or Philadelphia fans in each of my leagues.

It also pays to know what other teams in your league lack. For example, in one league, I drafted Jason Witten and was excited to be set at the tight end position. However, after the draft, I noticed that no one had drafted John Carlson. Knowing he was in store for a solid season, I picked him up. After that, my first line of business was to find the other teams in the league who were really hurting at tight end, and to plan some offers with Witten (since he has the bigger perceived value) that would help me improve at other skills positions. In another league, I was forced to do an autopick draft. I found a slew of receivers with upside on my team, but you only need so much depth. Starters are the only ones who count in actual game time. I started shopping receivers.

Trade Rule #3: Water’s wet, the sky’s blue and studs typically produce. Did you notice which players struggled in week one? Steve Slaton, Michael Turner, Matt Forte and others were extremely disappointing and many fantasy football owners are quick to panic. It happens every year — certain guys are slow out of the gate, and their respective fantasy owners break out in a cold sweat. Suddenly that first, second or third-round pick doesn’t seem as rock-solid as before. This isn’t something that will happen overnight, but as we get into week two, three and four, you may find one or two owners in your league willing to pull the trigger on one of their draft studs who is slacking at the on the field.

On the flip side, if you are the guy who owns Slaton, Turner, Forte or other week one underachievers, it is important to remember the mantra that studs will typically produce (eventually). You wouldn’t go out and spend $30,000 on a new car, only to sell it a week or two later for $20,000 or less just because the engine light stayed on an extra couple seconds when you started the car last. Slaton, Turner, Forte and company represent stock that has taken a nosedive, but should bounce back in a reasonably short amount of time. You don’t want to give away stock when it is lowest in value. The goal is to get top dollar for your investment. Selling low doesn’t allow you to do that.

Trade Rule #4: The other guy is looking to improve his team, too. It may be hard to avoid throwing out some one-sided trades to league mates, but remember that the other guy is trying to improve, too. Throw too many one-sided deals at the other owners in your league, and they may soon look at you as the trade dude who’s calling wolf. They may never look at one of your trade proposals seriously, regardless of what you are offering. I know this rule well, because I used to be this guy — the one who tried to wear down league owners with a barrage of trades that may not have been totally equal on both sides. Ask yourself the following before offering a deal: “If I was the other owner, would I really accept this deal?”

Trade Rule #5: Time is on your side. If someone in your league offered you a deal and you are uncertain as to what to do, perhaps the best rule of thumb is to not rush the decision. Sleep on it. Take some time to look at stats and get feedback from other trusted fantasy owners. Yes, an owner may be particularly anxious to make a deal and may move on to another owner if you don’t pull the trigger quickly, but then again, if you are that uncertain about the trade, than it may be for the best if things don’t work out. The only timeline that you need to remember is your league’s trade deadline.

Trade Rule #6: No player is untradeable. Luckily, in fantasy sports, we don’t need to deal with egocentric backlashes a la Jay Cutler. If someone offers you a deal for one of your studs, it may be in your best interest to at least consider the deal and look at counter offers. Yes, having Adrian Peterson is great, but if someone offers you a package of really nice players in return — especially ones that plug glaring holes in your starting lineup, than it may be hard to resist. Typically, the teams with one or two super-studs and a supporting cast of lesser players doesn’t stay as competitive season-long as a team loaded with balanced talent across the board. Yes, Peterson will get you X-number of touchdowns, X-number of yards and a boatload of overall fantasy points, but improving yourself at a number of other positions may be more beneficial to the big picture of your fantasy team.

Trade Rule #7: It is OK to counter an offer. In fact, it is critical in many cases for both sides to reach a true agreement if both sides know exactly what is needed to complete a deal. I know many people who feel that if someone else “low-balls” them on a trade offer, the best course of reaction is to ignore it and never communicate in return — or to offer back a really ridiculous offer. However, it is obvious that the other owner has an interest in certain guys on your roster. Why not offer something realistic back — targeting the people on his roster that you would really like? It can’t hurt, and it may actually help lead to a compromise that nets you some really solid talent.

Trade Rule #8: Watch the injury reports and transaction lists. Being one step ahead of your league mates is always a good practice. If you notice that a certain player is injured, and feel that the injury may not be a season-threatening or overall stat-threatening (like a leg injury on your primary running back), than it may not hurt to throw out an offer for an injured player — especially if you can snag that player for a couple of your bench warmers.

A different example includes position battle injuries. For example, perhaps you see that Kurt Warner, current Cardinals starting quarterback, is struggling majorly and may be fighting an injury. Throwing out a deal for Matt Leinart, who could inherit a QB spot on one of the most potent passing teams in the league, may not be a bad thing.

Another thing to watch is the weekly schedule. If you see that a certain player has a number of really easy matchups on the horizon, and you can get him cheap enough, it may be worth a shot. One example at the moment is Clinton Portis, who faces the Rams and Lions in weeks two and three, respectively.

Trade Rule #9: Evaluate other trades. Don’t just look at other trades in your league, but go places where people announce their trades and try to get evaluations either before or after the trade. What things seemed to work? Look for trends that may help you in your own league. We will be evaluating a number of trades throughout the season here on our main board at chinstrapninjas.com — so be sure to keep checking back. Another resource is the fantasyfootballcafe, which has a thread devoted to trade analysis. Watch not only what trades are offered and which ones seem to work for both sides, but also what others say about the trade.

Trade Rule #10: Get trusted feedback on a trade before pulling the trigger. Again, time is on your side, so take the time to do it right. Identify several people who you respect in fantasy football and ask their advice on certain trades before you complete the deal. Sometimes, it is easy to be blinded by a player bias, and fall into a trap where you are losing more talent in a deal than you’re gaining. The more people you get feedback from, the better the chances that you’ll get a good feel of whether or not a certain trade is in your best interest. We here at chinstrap ninjas, are offering our services to evaluate your trades as they come up. Feel free to e-mail myself or ep with any questions, and we’ll share our feedback with the rest of our readers as a way for us all to grow as a community and become better traders.

What are your trade suggestions? Disagree with one of my ten trade rules? Have some to add? Some stories to share? Want some feedback on your trade negotiations? Let us know!

Related posts

• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)
• Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (2)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)

So, I was pleased with the results of my first week’s “Ninja Sense,” where I hit on predicting that Clinton Portis would struggle, Ray Rice would outproduce Portis, Earl Bennett would prove his worth in fantasy circles (more on him later), Shaun Hill would give fantasy owners reason for optimism, Mike Bell would shine, all Cleveland Browns players would stink it up and that Steve Slaton would struggle out of the gates.

That’s seven-out-of-10, or a 70 percent. In the realm of fantasy football prognosticating, that 70 would land me on the distinguished honor roll.

In an effort for a successful encore presentation, here is my Week 2 list of things that will happen in fantasy football circles.

1. Starting to believe that Julius Jones is, at the moment, one of the most under-rated RBs for 2009. Sure his 117 yards and a score came against the swiss cheese version of an NFL defense (St. Louis), but looking closer at the game, it is obvious now that Jim Mora wasn’t bluffing when he said that Jones would be the featured back in the offense and that the Seahawks would be leaning heavily on the running game this season. Jones now matches up against a 49ers defense that will provide more resistance, but not enough to slow down the JJ train. Here’s predicting another 100-plus yard performance and a TD, especially in light of news that TJ Houshmanzadeh could be hobbled this week. Further, here is my prediction that Julius Jones morphs into this season’s version of Thomas Jones and has a “comeback player of the year” type of season.
2. Those of you who are growing tired of my endless babbling about Earl Bennett be warned: I’ve made it my personal mission to continue touting the Bears receiver until he’s owned in at least 75 percent of leagues. Bennett’s numbers in week one may have seemed stale, until you look closer. He received 10 looks from Cutler, putting him in the top five of all receivers last week in looks. He had seven receptions and 66 yards, and that was with Cutler reeling off four interceptions and looking lost on the field. Cutler will continue to mature and grow in Chicago, and the Bears face a Steelers defense that let Justin Gage and Kenny Britt look like All-Pro, first ballot Hall of Famers. In any format, Bennett should be on your players to target, and in PPR leagues, he’ll be the sort of player that helps propel teams into the fantasy playoffs.
3. See the Jets. See the Jets run. See the Jets run and run and run. Thus was the story last week as the Jets backs ran all over the Houston Texans. I may be down on Chris Johnson for the long haul this season, but I’m loving him this week against the Texans. He’ll get plenty of carries, receptions, yards and may even see paydirt if LenDale White stays out of the way.
4. Matt Forte, a top-five back in most every fantasy draft this summer, ran for just 55 yards last week against a Packers team that has just instituted a new defensive scheme (the 3-4). Jay Cutler’s errant throws didn’t help matters much. This week, it gets even harder for Forte in a matchup against the Super Bowl defending Pittsburgh Steelers. You never sit your studs, but it would be tempting with Forte this week.
5. Chester Taylor has been a deep sleeper pick for me in 2009 for a while now (as I mention here). He’s in a contract season and I’m not convinced Adrian Peterson can go a whole season without injury. This week against the putrid Lions, the Minnesota coaching staff would be insane to run Adrian Peterson much past halftime in a game that should get out of hand quickly. Enter Taylor, who will be used to grind out the clock and will have plenty of room to run. Going out on a limb, all ninja-like, I expect Taylor to outscore Forte in fantasy points this week.
6. It worked fairly well last week, so here’s another shout out for Shaun Hill this week. In fact, he should eclipse last week’s totals in a high-stakes NFC-West showdown with Seattle for the early division lead. Neither defense is especially intimidating, and this game could become a shootout fairly quickly. Hill is 8-3 when he starts for the 49ers, and should fair well this week.
7. Top tight end this week? Dallas Clark, who will see a big boost in looks and receptions as Anthony Gonzalez misses the next two months. This week, the Colts face a Dolphins team that Peyton Manning usually owns. A primetime game and extra opportunities should spell success for the Colts TE.
8. No brainer of the week: The Minnesota defensive unit will the fantasy equivalent of King Kong this week. If they are starting on your team, instant advantage you. If you are playing against them, good luck. You’ll need it.
9. Four catches for 40 yards and a TD is fairly pedestrian for Kansas City receiver Dwayne Bowe, but it was all he could muster last week against Baltimore with Brodie Croyle slinging the pigskin. It remains to be seen if Matt Cassel is back under center this week as the Chiefs take on Oakland. If Cassel does play, expect Bowe to double his yardage, get closer to six or seven grabs and a TD.
10. I fully expect Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson to rebound after an embarrassing statistical no-show last week. They face the Titans, who were torched by Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes. I’m not expecting Schaub and Johnson to have elite numbers, but they’ll do enough to regain some fantasy respectability.

What are your predictions for this week? Agree or disagree with any of these 10 statements? We’d love to hear from you!

Related posts

• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)
• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)
• The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2 (0)

Which got me thinking some very important thoughts.

Such as … where do the fruit flies come from? There wasn’t a single fruit fly in the house one moment, and suddenly a wave of insects was treating my melon rind as if the fruit flies were the paparazzi and the rind was an incoherent Brittany Spears.

And … where do the fruit flies go when the fruit is removed? How quickly do they find the next over-ripened banana or half-eaten pear? Is there any insect or animal more obsessive or overzealous as the fruit fly?

And then it dawned on me … the one truth I had been searching for as I prepared to write my Week 1 recap:

Fantasy football owners are the fruit flies of the sports world.

Want proof?

Joe Flacco threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns in the Ravens’ season-opener last week against Kansas City. Suddenly, like that cantaloupe sitting on my kitchen counter, Flacco was flooded with attention from fantasy owners in leagues of all shapes and sizes. He was picked up in favor of many slow-starting QB options. In one of my leagues, actually, someone dropped Ben Roethlisberger for Flacco. This after Roethlisberger proved his own worth against an otherwise stingy Titans defense last Thursday. Flacco does deserve some attention, but let’s be reasonable here. He still is throwing to a mediocre receiving cast and his huge stats came against the Chiefs’ defense.

Another young QB that many are trying to snag after week one is Mark Sanchez. Those who were ahead of the curve (like those who read my sleeper QB column a few weeks ago) were able to avoid the Black Friday-esque fight to get Sanchez off the waiver wire. As I mentioned in the column, Sanchez has the “it” factor that will help him excel at the NFL level. Even though his receivers are fairly unknown, they are really reliable, if non-flashy, options.

Cadillac Williams is also a now-hot commodity in fantasy circles after a 97-yard, one-TD performance against Dallas. While he’s the flavor of the week in the Bucs’ backfield, remember that Tampa has a stable of able backs (Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward to name a few) and talk is that the Buccaneers will keep Cadillac around 15 or less carries a game. He’s worth a roster bench spot if you have room, just don’t expect consistent fantasy production from him.

Don’t be just another fruit fly

How are you handling your waivers and team management after week one? Are you going with the masses and trying to snag every player who scored a few fantasy points in hopes that it is the start of a trend? Or, are you going against the grain?

While the rest of the fruit flies buzz to the waiver wire for the flavor of the week pickup, why not throw a few offers at league owners who are panicking after just one week? There are plenty of players who were horrific in week one that you may be able to fish away from someone else in your league. Some players to consider:

1. Andre Johnson. OK, landing him may take a small act of God, but you may be surprised how many people are looking at the Texans right now and wondering if the sky is falling in Houston. Many forget that the Jets defense was really solid at the end of last season, and made some major strides this offseason to be even more dominant. On the flip side, the Texans next face a Titans defense that allowed the Steelers to light it up through the air. Expect Johnson to bounce back to reality sooner rather than later … and this may be the lowest value he’ll be the rest of the way.
2. Chris Johnson. Johnson was mediocre at best last Thursday against the Steelers. Plus, I’m not totally sold that Johnson will be a fantasy beast again in 2009. However, his Thursday stats were against the best defense in football, and next he’s playing against a Houston team that allowed the Jets to run amok in week one. Here’s another Johnson who’s value will increase significantly this weekend.
3. Clinton Portis. See Chris Johnson. A mediocre week one against an incredibly tough defense (as predicted here) followed this Sunday by a cakewalk matchup (against St. Louis). Portis has the added bonus of rushing against the Detroit Lions in week three. Again, like with CJ, I’m not sold on Portis this year for the long haul, but he’s a player who could be the most productive back over the next two weeks of play and will be a hot commodity when dangled before week four to the fruit flies in your respective legues.
4. Matt Schaub. Hard to stick up for a guy who killed my chances for a “W” in many leagues last week, but as long as Schaub can stay upright, he’ll be a viable fantasy option. The Titans defense allowed Roethlisberger to look like Dan Marino, and Schaub may use the same matchup to bounce back into the limelight.
5. Matt Forte. The Bears offense looks like a mess at the moment. Cutler wasn’t exactly a superstar last week against the Packers. However, Forte and company will bounce back. Possibly not this week, against the Steelers run defense, but after week 2, Forte’s value may be the lowest you’ll see it moving forward.
6. Michael Turner. A guy I was afraid of going into the season due to his exceptionally high workload last year, Turner still has a lot more to offer than his 65-yard, zero-TD performance last week.
7. Steve Smith. Three catches and 21 yards is nothing to write home about, but the Eagles defense had Jake Delhomme’s number from the start. Some QB controversy is brewing in Carolina, but no matter who is throwing the ball, Smith’s stats will even out sooner rather than later.
8. Roddy White. Another WR with many expectations but many disappointments in week one, White is too talented, his QB too talented and his supporting cast too talented for the numbers to continue being in the doghouse.

What are your week one viewpoints? What does it mean for the long haul? We’d love to hear your comments.

Related posts

• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)

I found it in a pile of receipts and paid bills that was leaning ever so slightly against my computer tower in our home office.

It was a coupon for toilet paper. A whole dollar off a pack of Scott bathroom tissue.

I was instantly elated. We didn’t need toilet paper, but I had found a bargain. We, as a human race, can’t pass up a deal, even if it turns out to be a bad one. Give me a nickel off a pack of gum, and I’ll spend the rest of the day doing random fist-pumps and dancing an Irish jig.

Then I saw the coupon’s expiration date, and wanted to cry. The dollar-off-a-pack-of-TP deal ended 8/31/09.

It was as if someone had sucker-punched me in the gut. It was like I had just lost my best friend.

This Tuesday morning, millions of people will experience a similar feeling. That’s the day that free agents in many fantasy football leagues come off waivers for the first time, and a mad rush of people all try to get the next great thing before owner Wally the Waiver-Wire Nerd makes his move.

Waiver priorities will be burned, emotions will run high and local drugstores will run low on Alka-Seltzer and antidepressants.

But you can avoid all that.

Simply pick up the next big thing BEFORE the games kick off Sunday and waivers lock up. Stash them on your bench and watch the other owners in your league wither in jealousy as your sleeper stash-away becomes the Anquan Boldin of 2009.

But who to choose? If you read just one of my stories all season, this is the one you should review. Consider snagging the following players on the cusp of fantasy stardom.

1. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals. No sense beating around the bush. Bernard Scott is my sleeper to end all sleepers. He’s the closest thing you’ll find to a “Steve Slaton” this year. Remember Slaton last year as a rookie? Undrafted in all but the largest of fantasy leagues. Mired just behind an aging and questionable Ahman Green on the Houston depth chart. Had inspiring preseason performances. Replaced Green as starter. Suddenly, he became everyone’s fantasy darling and a savior to many a fantasy owner’s season. I drafted him in most of my leagues to jeers from leaguemates. Advantage me.

Scott follows a similar path this season. He went undrafted in many fantasy leagues. In fact, in Yahoo leagues, he’s owned by just two percent of teams. He’s behind just Cedric Benson on the depth chart. Yes, that Cedric Benson … the one who deserves a start on your fantasy football roster as much as Rosie O’Donnell deserves her picture on a box of Wheaties. Bernard Scott’s only detractor is his size (5-11, 220) … except, remember that Slaton guy (5-9, 201)? He made it work with a much smaller frame.

Some experts rave that Cedric Benson has an opportunity to be a sleeper, sneaky RB start this week against the train wreck of a team in Denver. However, the pet rock from my first grade art class has a better chance to score legitmate fantasy points. Scott will be the one who turns heads, and he’ll be a difference maker as the season progresses — regardless of what happens in Week One.

Grab him now. The expiration window is small.

2. Earl Bennett, WR, Bears. No need to go into super detail on Bennett and why I love him this season. Just check out my popular WR sleeper story and my Week One things to expect. Bennett is owned in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues — up nine percent from when I posted my bold predictions piece yesterday. By Wednesday, I expect him to be owned, easily, in 65 percent or more of all Yahoo leagues. Don’t miss the curve.

3. Mike Bell, RB, Saints. Again, much of my reasoning for grabbing Bell before Sunday’s games is explained here. However, the difference between Bell and the others on my list at the moment is that Bell is a short-term option. Pierre Thomas should be back next week. The Saints don’t play the Detroit defense every week of the season. Lucky for us fantasy ninjas out there, most run-of-the-mill owners have the fantasy equivalent of ADHD. They’ll see Bell’s 100 yards and two TDs early next week and trade you their grandmother’s left kidney for him. If you do snag Bell, make sure you try to capitalize on his statline from Sunday and make a quick move for a player with more long-term upside that may have struggled some in Week One.

4. Deon Butler, WR, Seahawks. By all accounts, Deion Branch will be riding the pine this week. Butler may not be super-big, but he his super-fast, and Hasselbeck and company will utilize Butler to stretch the less-than-scary St. Louis defense. Yes, it is unlikely that Butler will be a super rookie breakout at receiver. The position is historically a slow-burner for rookies. However, Butler will be a serviceable option off your bench as long as there is room to squeeze him in. More on him here.

5. Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. Have I ever mentioned how incredibly ADHD many fantasy owners are? Celek turned many a head in the postseason last year, is the only viable and healthy tight end on a team known for chucking regularly to a tight end, and is only owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues at the moment. Go snag Celek off your waivers before games start Sunday (and before some random butterfly diverts your attention) and reap the benefit of having some quality TE depth on your team. At worse, having a second quality TE will allow you to pry your way into a nice early-season trade, dealing your name-brand Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark for an improvement at another position and ride Celek to fantasy stardom. More on Celek’s sleeper status can be found in our NFC-East preview.

6. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers. Owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo leagues, Hill is finally in a position to succeed as a starter and will fare well in a game that promises to be a shootout against Arizona. Read more on my Week One mancrush for Shaun Hill here.

Who do you suggest as must-add players before week one starts? Want to debate any of the players on this list? We’d love to hear your comments.

Related posts

• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)