A lot of fantasy sites offer weekly individual stats projections. Most of those sites are not free. I have no guarantees that these are going to be better than those expensive ones, but they are all pretty realistic. Safe even. At least there’s that.

In this edition we discuss the 2010 NFL Week 1 game between the Panthers and the Giants in New York.

The projections are based on last season’s statistics with tweaks where necessary for teams that have undergone major changes. It’s not perfect by any means, but it’s all we have this week.

Other games: MIN@NO | CLE@TB | MIA@BUF | CIN@NE | ATL@PIT | DEN@JAX | IND@HOU | OAK@TEN | CAR@NYG | DET@CHI | ARI@STL | GB@PHI | SF@SEA | DAL@WAS | BAL@NYJ | SD@KC

Defending the Panthers’ run game is difficult enough, but if Matt Moore proves effective as the starter, this will easily be one of the most feared offenses in 2010. They should start with a 23-22 win, according to the projections.

Matchups

There are several notable matchups in this contest. Giants receivers vs. Panthers cornerbacks is probably the most notable. Carolina has two excellent corners (Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall) who could make life difficult for Eli Manning and his two stud receivers.

The projections don’t reflect it (play your studs!) but don’t be surprised if Mario Manningham comes away from the first week with significant fantasy points.

The Giants front seven should offer a decent challenge for the Panthers, but not enough to quell their two stud running backs.

One last note, the Giants were not good against tight ends last season, but I’m not sure Jeff King, or any of the Panthers tight ends, will capitalize.

Quarterbacks

Eli Manning, NYG: 20-32, 221, 1 TD, 1 INT

Matt Moore, CAR: 18-30, 195, 1 TD, 1 INT

Running back

DeAngelo Williams, CAR: 85 yards; 4 catches, 35 yards receiving

Brandon Jacobs, NYG: 65 yards, TD; 1 catch, 5 receiving yards, fumble

Jonathan Stewart, CAR: 55 yards, TD

Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG: 55 yards; 4 catches, 45 yards

Wide receivers

Steve Smith, CAR: 8-100, TD

Steve Smith, NYG: 8-75

Hakeem Nicks, NYG: 4-80

Mario Manningham, NYG: 1-10, TD

Dwayne Jarrett, CAR: 4-45

Brandon Lafell, CAR: 1-10

Tight end

Kevin Boss, NYG: 3-15

Jeff King, CAR: 1-5

Kicker

Lawrence Tynes, NYG: 1 FG, 2 XP

John Kasay, CAR: 1 FG, 2 XP

Defense

Panthers: 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 1 INT

Giants: 2 sacks, 1 INT

Related posts

• NFC East: The preseason preview (4)
• Fantasy football: Run-first offenses embracing the pass (3)
• Fantasy football: Two-minute (draft) drill (0)
• Dissecting NFL box scores from Week 3 [FFB] (0)
• Week 5 Day of Reckoning: Dynasty implication edition (1)

Also check out our other rankings and our sleepers and draft strategy pages.

1. Andre Johnson - This big yardage and reception hog is top notch in my book.  His only drawback is he has never scored double digit TDs in a season yet.  He definitely is the top dog of PPR wide receivers.
2. Reggie Wayne - Peyton Manning’s #1 target is a consistent receiving machine.  He usually is one of the top red zone receivers for Indy too.  Hence his number two ranking.
3. Randy Moss - Moss is said to be in extremely great shape this offseason.  Only goes to figure that would happen in a contract year for him.  Look for Brady to Moss to be a hot connection in 2010.  Probably not as special as the 2007 season, but a really great season in the offing nonetheless.
4. Roddy White – Roddy says he wants to lead the league in receiving yards in 2010.  If Matt Ryan can take a bigger step forward in year 3, I see no reason why Roddy can’t achieve his lofty goals.  Roddy IMO should be the top dynasty receiver taken off the board right now.
5. Miles Austin – Austin emerged as the leading receiver last year in Big D.  He should continue to perform well with Tony Romo at the helm.
6. Brandon Marshall – Another PPR gem receiver.  Chad Henne’s new target should do well in the Miami spotlight.
7. Larry Fitzgerald – The name and past experience has him ranked this high.  Personally with Leinart as his QB, I would pass on Fitz and let someone else have him.
8. Wes Welker – Welker plainly is a PPR stud.  He gets around 120 receptions a season.  All signs are pointing to a week 1 start for Welker so far.  I would draft him with confidence.  If you don’t have confidence, just pick up Julian Edelman as a handcuff in the later rounds.
9. Steve Smith(NYG) – The Giants’ Steve Smith emerged as Eli Manning’s go to receiver in 2009.  I am sure that will continue in 2010 with this first down machine.  He was also very efficient in the red zone as well last year. A super PPR play as well.
10. Anquan Boldin – Q becomes the number 1 target for a rapidly maturing Joe Flacco.  I look for Flacco to take another big step forward in 2010 and Boldin is the main reason for it.
11. Greg Jennings – A healthy O-line heading into 2010 should allow more time for Aaron Rodgers to find Jennings down the field for longer passes.  He should be in for a big rebound season in 2010.
12. Marques Colston – Colston doesn’t get the high number of receptions as others this high, but he makes his count for over 15 yard per catch average and being a big red zone target for Brees.  Count on him for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs.
13. Steve Smith(CAR) – Carolina’s Steve Smith reemerged from ruins once Matt Moore took over at QB in 2009.  Moore is back for 2010, so look for the Steve Smith of old in 2010.
14. Calvin Johnson – You ask why is he ranked so low.  It’s QB play.  He won’t establish himself into the star player that he is until Matthew Stafford matures into a solid pro QB.  I say pick Johnson in 2011 or 2012.  He should be top 5 WR material by then.
15. DeSean Jackson – DJax played well in both games that Kevin Kolb started in 2009.  He is just so explosive, you just get him the ball and he makes plays.  Kolb will continue making Jackson a top receiver.
16. Chad Ochocinco – The wily veteran remains a top target and should once again be a top receiver in 2010.
17. Hines Ward – Ward is like the Rodney Dangerfield of wide receivers (he gets no respect).  Year in and year out this guy posts solid numbers, but he is overshadowed by the elite players at the position.  I would take this gritty player on my team any day.
18. TJ Houshmandzadeh – Housh’s last 2 seasons have been dismal to say the least.  I think he will be pushed more this year by the younger talent on this team.  Plus Hasselbeck should find more time with big Russell Okung over at left tackle.  2010 is one more year in the sun for Housh.
19. Dwayne Bowe – I think Bowe is due for a bounceback 2010.  He is in much better shape in camp this season and in Charlie Weis’ offense should add up to big things for the #1 receiving target in KC.
20. Johnny Knox – Based on offseason chatter, it appears that Knox will be Cutler’s main threat in the Mike Martz offense.  That could potentially mean some big things for Knox in 2010.
21. Malcom Floyd – Floyd could be the big benefactor from a Vincent Jackson absence in 2010.  I rate him higher than Jackson, because I feel Jackson truly might not play at all in 2010.
22. Michael Crabtree – Crabtree is the #2 target behind Vernon Davis in the San Fran pecking order, but he showed good enough promise in 2009 to eventually turn into an impact WR in the NFL.  He should take another step forward in 2010.
23. Santana Moss – Moss has done decent throughout his career with very average QBs throwing him the ball.  Now that Donny Mac is in town he could prove to be just what the doctor ordered for a breakout season from Santana Moss.
24. Mike Sims-Walker – Walker seems to be developing into a decent receiver.  If he can stay away from the injury bug, perhaps he can establish himself as a good receiver in this league.
25. Hakeem Nicks – Nicks had a really nice rookie season despite some early season injuries that set his progress back some.  Here’s hoping Eli can continue to find this talented receiver open more in 2010.
26. Dez Bryant – The first rookie on my list, I think Dez will make an immediate impact in 2010.  He just has to fight with all the other talented receiving options in Dallas for the football is all.
27. Bernard Berrian – Suddenly Berrian is looking like a viable receiving threat in Minnesota with Rice gone to injury and Harvin’s Headaches continuing.  He should be on everyone’s sleeper radar this year.
28. Donald Driver – Here is another tremendously consistent receiver that often gets overlooked in drafts.  The offseason knee scopes are a concern especially at his age, but I feel comfortable drafting him here.
29. Braylon Edwards – I give Edwards the nod over Santonio Holmes in NY mainly due to Holmes’ 4-game suspension.  He should emerge as  a go to guy for Sanchez in his second season.
30. Mike Wallace – Not afraid to take him at this stage despite Big Ben’s probable 4-game absence.  He will be solid the remainder of the season.
31. Derrick Mason – I have to agree with Speedy that Mason will get open a lot more in 2010 due to double coverage now shifting to Boldin.  I am telling you, the sleeper 2010 QB is Joe Flacco without a doubt.
32. Anthony Gonzalez – Everyone’s 2009 sleeper WR of the year flamed out with a knee injury last year.  He could return and do big things in the Colt offense for 2010.
33. Robert Meachem – Check out this guy’s stats the last 9 games of the season last year.  They were phenomenal.  Look for this former #1 draft pick to emerge as a bigger threat in NO in 2010.
34. Vincent Jackson – I hate putting a talent like Jackson this low on the list.  Truth is it doesn’t look like he will play in 2010.  This is the point in the draft I would take the gamble though that the Chargers or Jackson cave and he finds his way onto the field.
35. Percy Harvin – He only ranks this high assuming 2 things.  1. He overcomes his headache problems.  2. Brett Favre is under center in 2010.  If one or the other of those do not happen, he should be dropped further down the list.
36. Eddie Royal – Hopefully Josh McDaniels realizes the talent he has in Royal and makes the most of it in 2010.  There is no clear cut go-to receiver in Denver since Brandon Marshall’s departure.  I see Royal filling that role.
37. Mike Williams(TB) – Williams has had a nice offseason and preseason to date.  He figures to play a prominent role in any passing game Tampa can develop in 2010.
38. Mohamed Massaquoi – Massaquoi figures to be the main receiving threat on a team that should have to play a lot of catch up football.  If he had a better QB than Jake Delhomme he would rank slightly higher.
39. Santonio Holmes – If it wasn’t for his 4 game suspension, Holmes would be ranked where Braylon Edwards is on this list.  He would be an excellent third receiver for a team serving as a bye week fill in for 2010.
40. Jabar Gaffney – It is also possible that Gaffney grabs the top target spotlight in Denver.  Because he has that potential, I rank him here in 2010.
41. Lee Evans – Hard to believe an undisputed #1 receiver is ranked this low.  The Buffalo O-line and horrible QB play of Trent Edwards puts Evans way down here.  Pick him up in dynasty leagues.  Next year he will have Jake Locker at QB.
42. Donnie Avery – This undisputed #1 receiver is ranked here due to the same reasons as above.  He ranks a little lower for 2010 because Sam Bradford’s a rookie QB this year.
43. Devin Aromashodu – Devin had a nice 4-catch 78-yard 1-TD performance in the first preseason game.  Too bad it was all with Caleb Hanie at QB.  He seems to be everyone’s 2010 sleeper WR.  Here’s hoping he at least sees the playing field.
44. Terrell Owens – We could all be surprised and Owens could turn out to be the sleeper WR of 2010.  I just don’t trust Carson Palmer’s right arm to hold up all season though, so my hopes here are tempered.
45. Nate Washington – Here is another potential #1 receiver.  The Titans just don’t throw often enough for him to make a major fantasy impact.
46. Pierre Garcon – Garcon’s current injuries are opening the door for Gonzalez and Collie to get more playing time than him in 2010.  He has to hope he gets himself back on the field in time to make a difference.
47. Devin Hester – Supposedly one of the starting receivers for now in Chicago.  I foresee Aromashodu beating him out for that spot before long though.
48. Jacoby Jones – Jones should establish himself as the #2 receiving target in the pass happy Houston offense.  If he definitely does that, he should be ranked higher on the list.  He does have to contend with Kevin Walter for playing time which is what makes me rank him here.
49. Jeremy Maclin – Some places have Maclin ranked a lot higher.  I just don’t see it happening with him being the third and sometimes fourth option for Kevin Kolb.  Kolb will experience some first-year growing pains.  That will hurt the receiver on the bottom end of the food chain first.
50. Devin Thomas – Impressed in his first preseason action. He could be a big benefactor as well with Donovan McNabb coming to town.
51. Austin Collie – This guy was a big red zone threat for Peyton Manning in his rookie season.  I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue in 2010.
52. Chris Chambers – A veteran receiver that really came on in the second half of 2009.  I still think KC will establish the passing game through Dwayne Bowe in 2010.
53. Kevin Walter – I put him on the list simply because he could win Houston’s #2 receiving  job.  I don’t think he will and Jacoby Jones will become a more household receiver name in 2010.
54. Steve Breaston – Everyone thinks Breaston will establish himself in 2010.  I am a big doubter as long as Leinart is under center in Arizona.
55. Nate Burleson – Burleson has had a very up and down career.  Last year was an up season.  This year figures to be a downer after signing the decent contract he got with the Lions.
56. Brandon LaFell – LaFell has had a nice offseason and camp.  He could become a number 1 receiver someday to replace the aging Steve Smith.  For now though he will slide in as the number 2 man in Carolina.
57. Josh Morgan – He was one of my sleeper WR candidates in 2010.  Problem was Crabtree did eventually sign and play and San Fran really focused heavily running the ball in 2009.  Look for both to continue in 2010.
58. Darrius Heyward-Bey – Darrius could potentially establish himself as the #1 receiver in Oakland should Schilens continue to have problems with his foot.  Adding Jason Campbell at QB doesn’t hurt either.  Campbell is a marked improvement over JaMarcus Russell.
59. Brian Hartline – Hartline could settle in as a decent #2 guy for the emerging Chad Henne.
60. Mike Thomas - The #2 in Jacksonville rounds out my rankings.  Here is hoping though you don’t have to rely on him consistently for your fantasy team in 2010.

Related posts

• 2010 Composite Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings (0)
• 2010 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings with Player Capsules (6)
• 2010 fantasy football redraft rankings: Wide receivers (8)
• Fantasy football: Get an elite receiver (1)
• 2010 fantasy implications: Top-20 WRs from 2009 (non-PPR) (9)

Values and talent change year to year, and this year there are several different directions to take. This is the first in a series of discussions about draft order, how that affects your draft and your ability to zig to the tune of everyone else’s zag.

Rest assured that your first three picks will determine later picks, which is a perfectly good reason to avoid cookie-cutter strategy.

For this article, we’ll be picking in a 12-team league with standard (non-PPR, 4 points per TD pass, etc.) scoring and a snaking draft. Average draft position from Fantasy Football Calculator will be the other “owners,” meaning that none of the players with an ADP before my selections (1.01, 2.12, 3.01, etc.) is available at my pick.

The first overall pick

Let’s start with congratulations. With the first overall pick there’s no competition for the first player on your board. Take him and enjoy it because you face a long wait.

From 1.01 to 2.12 a lot of big names are going to fly off the board, but another advantage the 1.01 pick gets is two picks where the second round turns into the third. Looking at the ADP, there is a notable dropoff from less-risky to risky talent around the 26 picks mark. So 1.01 (through 1.03, depending on some off the wall picks in the first two rounds) is a really solid place to pick from in 2010.

For me, the top choice is Maurice Jones-Drew. The other options are Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. At No. 1 it’s vital to get one of the stud backs. As was said in the 20 reasons why you shouldn’t pick anyone in the ADP Top 20, every player has risk. The difference between these three and the rest is that the rewards for their best performances outweigh the risks.

At the Rounds 2-3 turn

A lot of talent leaves the board while waiting and watching, but there is still some significant talent. Seven of the last 12 picks have been receivers, so there should be values at running back.

Picks: Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas. If you want to substitute Jonathan Stewart for one of those backs go ahead. Grant is the clear feature back in Green Bay. Pierre Thomas should see more goal-line carries this season with Mike Bell gone and Lynell Hamilton hurt.

One thought: If Greg Jennings was available at this pick, you have my permission to follow the WR trend instead of zagging.

Round 4-5

The running backs here are among the scariest of 2010. They are all guys with injuries, competition and/or effectiveness concerns. Luckily, we’ve already chosen three backs and three of the last six picks were backs, so this doesn’t concern us.

Picks: Hakeem Nicks and Vernon Davis. Nicks could reach elite status this season and Davis should provide a significant edge at TE over half the teams in the league.

One thought: ADP puts Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates just out of reach here. Either one would be a viable option if they fell. However, picking Rivers would change the rest of this strategy.

Round 6-7

Five of the last eight picks were running backs, so again we are in a good position to fill need by picking WR3s with upside. One of them should be a solid WR2.

Picks: Santana Moss and Jeremy Maclin. Moss is the No. 1 in Washington and has displayed star qualities despite never having a quarterback as talented as Donovan McNabb. DeSean Jackson is a supreme talent, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Maclin outproduces him this season.

One thought: Malcolm Floyd, Jay Cutler and Ahmad Brashaw are other very viable options at this turn.

Rounds 8-9

The previous 12 picks were a good mix with no notable runs. Good because this team can’t skip picking a quarterback forever.

Picks: Eli Manning and LaDainian Tomlinson. Manning is leading an offense that is moving from the run to the pass. Tomlinson is now on a team built to run the ball, and even if Shonn Greene doesn’t give him the opportunity to do it between the tackles, LT will see goal-line and third-down action.

One thought: If Vernon Davis isn’t picked at the 4-5 turn, Chris Cooley and Visanthe Shiancoe are both available here.

Rounds 10-11

Again, with teams filling needs, the previous two rounds were a mish-mash of picks so our thoughts turn to team need instead of stealing values.

Picks: Alex Smith and Jabbar Gaffney. If you wait for a quarterback, you should grab a backup pretty early. Smith’s potential for 2010 is scintillating. Gaffney could be Denver’s No. 1 receiver. Brandon Marshall was targeted more than 150 times by Kyle Orton last season.

One thought: Depending on how much you’ve deviated from the above picks, Kellen Winslow is available here. Also, Chester Taylor is worth a look.

Rounds 12-13

We are nearing the end of the draft for some leagues, for others there are seven to 10 more rounds to go.

Picks: Saints defense and Roy Williams. The Saints are the eighth defense off the board and while they won’t be quite as dominant as last year, they return the playmakers who made that defense such a nice pick in 2009. While he struggled to ever by the No. 1 in Detroit and Dallas, Williams should move into the No. 3 role in Dallas. He’s talented enough to cause headaches out of the slot.

One thought: These picks and the next two will be determined by bench slots/flex positions employed by your league and any mandatory roster slots. For some of you the next two picks will be your last, so you’ll want to get a kicker with your last pick.

For owners in deeper leagues, kicker shouldn’t come until the very end. At this point, sleepers and value picks are key. I’m not a huge fan of handcuffing running backs, but if there are few options left for your fifth (and sixth?) running back(s), backing up Jones-Drew or Grant is a move that would help your team.

To determine who else you should pick, be sure to check out our 2010 fantasy football rankings page. For more strategies like this, including mock draft analysis, sleepers and the like, visit our strategies and advice page. Also, this article is very similar to the Fantasy Fantasy Draft at Razzball. Any time you can get into some brains to see how they pick and why they pick who they pick, be like Nike. Those brains at Razzball, they’re at least as good as ours.

Related posts

• 2010 Redraft Running Back Rankings with Player Capsules (6)
• 2010 Redraft PPR Running Back Rankings with Commentary (1)
• 2010 Composite Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings (4)
• Fantasy football: Run-first offenses embracing the pass (3)
• The most extensive 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings on the net (7)

As with composite rankings at QB and RB, we again used CBS Sportsline.com, ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, Yahoo.com, NFL.com, jzak’s ranks with player capsules and sockonfl’s ranks with player capsules to develop the following composite list of the 83 best receivers.

Be sure to note, however, that some of the rankings used were not as up-to-date as the others, depending on how quickly each site has updated its own list of players and factored in offseason injuries, position battles, etc. Therefore, the following rankings may see a little skewing compared to what you’d expect.

Also don’t forget to check out all our 2010 fantasy football rankings and our draft startegies and sleepers.

Other composite ranks: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Tight Ends | Kickers | Defenses

1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy Moss
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Reggie Wayne
5. Roddy White
6. Miles Austin
7. Brandon Marshall
8. Calvin Johnson
9. DeSean Jackson
10. Greg Jennings
11. Marques Colston
12. Anquan Boldin
13. Steve Smith(CAR)
14. Sidney Rice
15. Steve Smith(NYG)
16. Chad Ochocinco
17. Hines Ward
18. Michael Crabtree
19. Mike Sims-Walker
20. Dwayne Bowe
21. Hakeem Nicks
22. Wes Welker
23. Santana Moss
24. TJ Houshmandzadeh
25. Robert Meachem
26. Percy Harvin
27. Mike Wallace
28. Donald Driver
29. Jeremy Maclin
30. Pierre Garcon
31. Vincent Jackson
32. Malcom Floyd
33. Kenny Britt
34. Lee Evans
35. Braylon Edwards
36. Steve Breaston
37. Johnny Knox
38. Derrick Mason
39. Dez Bryant
40. Santonio Holmes
41. Terrell Owens
42. Devin Hester
43. Devin Aromashodu
44. Jerricho Cotchery
45. Kevin Walter
46. Donnie Avery
47. Chris Chambers
48. Austin Collie
49. Mario Manningham
50. Jabar Gaffney
51. Eddie Royal
52. Nate Burleson
53. Antonio Bryant
54. Chaz Schilens
55. Mohamed Massaquoi
56. Bernard Berrian
57. Brandon LaFell
58. Anthony Gonzalez
59. Roy Williams
60. Demaryius Thomas
61. Mike Thomas
62. Nate Washington
63. Dexter McCluster
64. Devin Thomas
65. Devery Henderson
66. Early Doucet
67. Julian Edelman
68. Jacoby Jones
69. Golden Tate
70. Josh Morgan
71. Mike Williams(TB)
72. Louis Murphy
73. Laurent Robinson
74. Davone Bess
75. Legedu Naanee
76. James Jones
77. Arrelious Benn
78. Darrius Heyward-Bey
79. Brian Hartline
80. Joey Galloway
81. Justin Gage
82. Joshua Cribbs
83. Micheal Jenkins

Related posts

• 2010 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings with Player Capsules (6)
• 2010 Redraft PPR Wide Receiver Rankings with Commentary (0)
• 2010 fantasy football redraft rankings: Wide receivers (8)
• Fantasy football: Get an elite receiver (1)
• The most extensive 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings on the net (7)

1. Randy Moss – Moss is said to be in extremely great shape this offseason.  Only goes to figure that would happen in a contract year for him.  Look for Brady to Moss to be a hot connection in 2010.  Probably not as special as the 2007 season, but a really great season in the offing nonetheless.
2. Andre Johnson – This big yardage and reception hog is top notch in my book.  His only drawback is he has never scored double digit TD’s in a season yet.  That’s the reason I give Moss the edge over him for 2010.
3. Reggie Wayne – Peyton’s #1 target is a consistent receiving machine.  He usually is one of the top red zone receivers for Indy too.  Hence his number 3 ranking.
4. Roddy White – Roddy says he wants to lead the league in receiving yards in 2010.  If Matt Ryan can take a bigger step forward in year 3, I see no reason why Roddy can’t achieve his lofty goals.  Roddy IMO should be the top dynasty receiver taken off the board right now.
5. Miles Austin – Austin emerged as the leading receiver last year in Big D.  He should continue to perform well with Tony Romo at the helm.
6. Larry Fitzgerald – The name and past experience has him ranked this high.  Personally with Leinart as his QB, I would pass on Fitz and let someone else have him.
7. Greg Jennings – A healthy oline heading into 2010 should allow more time for Aaron Rodgers to find Jennings down the field for longer passes.  He should be in for a big rebound season in 2010.
8. Anquan Boldin – Q become the number 1 target for a rapidly maturing Joe Flacco.  I look for Flacco to take another big step forward in 2010 and Boldin is the main reason for it.
9. Brandon Marshall – He might get ranked slightly higher in PPR leagues.  Chad Henne’s new target should do well in the Miami spotlight.
10. Marques Colston – Colston doesn’t get the high number of receptions as others this high, but he makes his count for over 15.00 yard per catch average and being a big red zone target for Brees.  Count on him for 1,100 yards and 10 TD’s.
11. Steve Smith(CAR) – Carolina’s Steve Smith reemerged from ruins once Matt Moore took over at QB in 2009.  Moore is back for 2010, so look for the Steve Smith of old in 2010.
12. DeSean Jackson – DJax played well in both games that Kevin Kolb started in 2009.  He is just so explosive, you just get him the ball and he makes plays.  Kolb will continue making Jackson a top receiver.
13. Steve Smith(NYG) – The Giants Steve Smith emerged as Eli Mannings go to receiver in 2009.  I am sure that will continue in 2010 with this first down machine.  He was also very efficient in the red zone as well last year.
14. Chad Ochocinco – The wily veteran remains a top target and should once again be a top receiver in 2010.
15. Calvin Johnson – You ask why is he ranked so low.  It’s QB play.  He won’t establish himself into the star player that his until Matthew Stafford matures into a solid pro QB.  I say pick Johnson in 2011 or 2012.  He should be top 5 WR material by then.
16. TJ Houshmandzadeh – Housh’s last 2 season have been dismal to say the least.  I think he will be pushed more this year by the younger talent on this team.  Plus Hasselbeck should find more time with big Russell Okung over at left tackle.  2010 is one more year in the sun for Housh.
17. Sidney Rice – This ranking takes into account the fact that Brett Favre might not play yet.  If Favre does play, I would bump him up a few spots on this list.  He’s a solid receiver and a nice big red zone target.
18. Hines Ward – Ward is like the Rodney Dangerfield of wide receivers (he gets no respect).  Year in and year out this guy posts solid numbers, but he is overshadowed by the elite players at the position.  I would take this gritty player on my team any day.
19. Dwayne Bowe – I think Bowe is due for a bounceback 2010.  He is in much better shape in camp this season and year in Charlie Weis offense should add up to big things for the #1 receiving target in KC.
20. Johnny Knox – Based on all the offseason chatter, it appears that Knox will be Cutler’s main threat in the Mike Martz offense.  That could potentially mean some big things for Knox in 2010.
21. Malcom Floyd – Floyd could be the big benefactor from a Vincent Jackson absence in 2010.  I rate him higher than Jackson, because I feel Jackson truly might not play at all in 2010.
22. Michael Crabtree – Crabtree is the #2 target behind Vernon Davis in the San Fran pecking order, but he showed good enough promise in 2009 to eventually turn into an impact WR in the NFL.  He should take another step forward in 2010.
23. Santana Moss – Moss has done decent throughout his career with very average QB’s throwing him the ball.  Now Donny Mac is town in he could prove to be just what the doctor ordered for a breakout season from Santana Moss.
24. Mike Sims-Walker – Walker seems to be developing into a decent receiver.  If he can stay away from the injury bug, perhaps he can establish himself as a good receiver in this league.
25. Hakeem Nicks – Nicks had a really nice rookie season despite some early season injuries that set his progress back some.  Here’s hoping Eli can continue to find this talented receiver open more in 2010.
26. Dez Bryant – The first rookie on my list, I think Dez will make an immediate impact in 2010.  He just has to fight with all the other talented receiving options in Dallas for the football is all.
27. Donald Driver – Here is another tremendously consistent receiver that often gets overlooked in drafts.  The offseason knee scopes are a concern especially at his age, but I feel comfortable drafting him here.
28. Braylon Edwards – I give Edwards the nod over Santonio Holmes in NY mainly due to Holmes’ 4 game suspension.  He should emerge as  a go to guy for Sanchez in his second season.
29. Mike Wallace – Not afraid to take him at this stage despite Big Ben’s probable 4 game absence.  He will be solid the remainder of the season.
30. Derrick Mason – I have to agree with Speedy that Mason will get open a lot more in 2010 due to double coverage now shifting to Boldin.  I am telling you, the sleeper 2010 QB is Joe Flacco without a doubt. 
31. Wes Welker – He would definitely be ranked much higher in PPR leagues.  This isn’t that so he falls here.  All signs are pointing to a week 1 start for Welker so far.  I would draft him with confidence.  If you don’t have confidence, just pick up Edelman as a handcuff in the later rounds.
32. Anthony Gonzalez – Everyone’s 2009 sleeper WR of the year flamed out with a knee injury last year.  He could return and do big things in the Colt offense for 2010.
33. Robert Meachem – Check out this guy’s stats the last 9 games of the season last year.  They were phenomenal.  Look for this this former #1 draft pick to emerge as a bigger threat in NO in 2010.
34. Vincent Jackson – I hate putting a talent like Jackson this low on the list.  Truth is it doesn’t look like he will play in 2010.  This is the point in the draft I would take the gamble though that the Chargers or Jackson cave and he finds his way onto the field.
35. Percy Harvin – He only ranks this high assuming 2 things.  1 is he overcomes his headache problems.  2 is Brett Favre is under center in 2010.  If one or the other of those do not happen, he should be dropped further down the list.
36. Eddie Royal – Hopefully Josh McDaniels realizes the talent he has in Royal and makes the most of it in 2010.  There is no clear cut go-to receiver in Denver since Brandon Marshall’s departure.  I see Royal filling that role.
37. Mike Williams(TB) – Williams has had a nice offseason and preseason to date.  He figures to play a prominent role in any passing game Tampa can develop in 2010.
38. Mohamed Massaquoi – Massaquoi figures to be the main receiving threat on a team that should have to play a lot of catch up football.  If he had a better QB than Jake Delhomme he would rank slightly higher.
39. Santonio Holmes – If it wasn’t for his 4 game suspension, Holmes would be ranked where Braylon Edwards is on this list.  He would be an excellent third receiver for a team serving as a bye week fill in for 2010.
40. Jabar Gaffney – It is also possible that Gaffney grabs the top target spotlight in Denver.  Because he has that potential, I rank him here in 2010.
41. Lee Evans – Hard to believe an undisputed #1 receiver is ranked this low.  The Buffalo oline and horrible QB play of Trent Edwards puts Evans way down here.  Pick him up in dynasty leagues.  Next year he will have Jake Locker at QB.
42. Donnie Avery – This undisputed #1 receiver is ranked here due to the same reasons as above.  He ranks a little lower for 2010 because Sam Bradford’s a rookie QB this year.
43. Devin Aromashodu – Devin had a nice 4 catch 78 yard 1 TD performance in the first preseason game.  Too bad it was all with Caleb Hanie at QB.  He seems to be everyone’s 2010 sleeper WR.  Here’s hoping he at least sees the playing field.
44. Terrell Owens – We could all be surprised and Owens could turn out to be the sleeper WR of 2010.  I just don’t trust Carson Palmer’s right arm to hold up all season though, so my hopes here are tempered.
45. Nate Washington – Here is another potential #1 receiver.  The Titans just don’t throw often enough for him to make a major fantasy impact.
46. Chaz Schilens – Schilens has some talent if he can just overcome the foot injuries that have dogged him his entire career.  It is possible he never makes it in the NFL.
47. Devin Hester – Supposedly one of the starting receivers for now in Chicago.  I foresee Aromashodu beating him out for that spot before long though.
48. Jacoby Jones – Jones should establish himself as the #2 receiving target in the pass happy Houston offense.  If he definitely does that, he should be ranked higher on the list.  He does have to contend with Kevin Walter for playing time which is what makes me rank him here.
49. Jeremy Maclin – Some places have Maclin ranked a lot higher.  I just don’t see it happening with him being the third and sometimes fourth option for Kevin Kolb.  Kolb will experience some first year growing pains.  That will hurt the receiver on the bottom end of the food chain first.
50. Devin Thomas – Impressed in his first preseason action. He could be a big benefactor as well with Donovan McNabb coming to town.
51. Austin Collie – This guy was a big red zone threat for Peyton Manning in his rookie season.  I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue in 2010.
52. Chris Chambers – A veteran receiver that really came on in the second half of 2009.  I still think though KC will establish the passing game through Dwayne Bowe in 2010.
53. Kevin Walter – I put him on the list simply because he could win Houston’s #2 receiving  job.  I don’t think he will and Jacoby Jones will become a more household receiver name in 2010.
54. Steve Breaston – Everyone thinks Breaston will establish himself in 2010.  I am a big doubter as long as Leinart is under center in Arizona.
55. Nate Burleson – Burleson has had a very up and down career.  Last year was an up season.  This year figures to be a downer after signing the decent contract he got with the Lions this year.
56. Brandon LaFell – LaFell has had a nice offseason and camp.  He could become a number 1 receiver someday to replace the aging Steve Smith.  For now though he will slide in as the number 2 man in Carolina.
57. Josh Morgan – He was one of my sleeper WR candidates in 2010.  Problem was Crabtree did eventually sign and play and San Fran really focused heavily running the ball in 2009.  Look for both to continue in 2010.
58. Darrius Heyward – Bey – Darrius could potential establish himself as the #1 receiver in Oakland should Schilens continue to have problems with his foot.  Adding Jason Campbell at QB doesn’t hurt either.  He is a marked improvement over JaMarcus Russell.
59. Brian Hartline – Hartline could settle in as a decent #2 guy for the emerging Chad Henne.
60. Mike Thomas - The #2 in Jacksonville rounds out my rankings.  Here is hoping though you don’t have to rely on him consistently for your fantasy team in 2010.

Also available: sockonfl’s 2010 redraft rankings at running back and quarterback.

Be sure to check out jzak’s redraft rankings at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, along with draft strategies for kicker and team defense.

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4.01 Steve Smith, CAR (jzak)

Quite a dilemma here in terms of which WR to snag. Three guys had my attention … Sidney Rice has big upside potential if everything falls into place, but his hip is not healing as hoped and there is still uncertainty about Brett Favre’s status for 2010. According to Vikings coach Brad Childress, Rice is a “ways away” from returning from the PUP. Vincent Jackson is a stud receiver who continues digging himself a hole. He’s threatened numerous times to hold out this season, and the Chargers aren’t blinking. Looking more and more like he’ll face a rocky season. Steve Smith is aging, and had a flag football injury this summer, but is looking on track and will be playing week 1. He’s much safer than the other receivers remaining and Matt Moore really seemed to lock in to Smith late last season.

4.02 Knowshon Moreno, DEN (ep)

He’s not a favorite, but I’m going for balance here with this “B” squad. Moreno’s the last feature back on the board and is a good ADP value at 38th overall, making him the top choice. I’d rather be zagging.

4.03 Felix “the cat” Jones (consigliere)

Should be deadly out of the backfield and that’s worth some money in PPR leagues. He has great speed and should get some long touchdowns and i think he will get about 5-6 catches a game which will make up for losing some carries inside the red zone.

I get a good back here, plus he is a high reward guy. There are some concerns with extra running backs but when the Cowboys go to the sky he will be in there and when they need a spark he will be in there. Barber is wounded and Jones has more talent.

4.04 Ronnie Brown, MIA (sockonfl)

Brown has always been a stud fantasy producer when he has been on the field. The problem is getting him to stay healthy a full season. Hopefully a contract year will motivate him to play an entire season.

4.05 Sidney Rice, MIN (jaymo)

He may not be the No. 1 red zone target I prefer in a WR1 for my team, but I like his upside after breaking out last year with more than 1,300 yards, 15.8 YPC and 8 TDs. Brett Favre’s arrival certanly played a part, but we should also give Rice some credit in developing during his third year – an evidenced-based trend in WR progression. I’m not as worried as many may be about Favre’s return. If he was that worried about his ankle he wouldn’t be standing on a high school field chucking the ball around, instead would be in Vikings’ camp getting treatment by a top-notch sports medicine team.

Favre will be under center this season, and I got a nice value pick to make up for my “tragic” picks of the previous two rounds (Note: sarcism). Regarding Rice’s injury status; it’s training camp. I’m drafting for the regular season.

4.06 Michael Crabtree, SF (jzak)

There is nothing worst than getting sniped on a draft pick … and with all of Sidney Rice’s issues, I was chomping at the bit to snag him here. Crabtree isn’t a bad consolation prize. He produced well despite missing time with the offense last year as a rookie. This year, he says he’s feeling really comfortable with the offense for the first time, and is a main cog on an up-and-coming Niners offense. Taking him in the fourth round is a little higher than I would have liked, but I also didn’t want to take a chance of losing him to someone else between now and my next pick.

4.07 Matt Forte, CHI (speedy)

I’m going to go out on a limb here and hope last year was a fluke, because of the Mike Martz-led offense.

4.08 Hakeem Nicks, NYG (ryder)

It was tempting to pick Vincent Jackson at this spot,but picking him in the 4th rd.is to early with his suspension and his possible lenghty holdout.I like that Nicks will give you a deep homerun threat and is a big bodied redzone target for a wr.

4.09 Mike Sims-Walker, JAX (krause)

Here we are, the most crucial point of the draft. this is the point where you have to decide if your going stick with your strategy or turn a new leaf (No, not Ryan Leaf). I was originally going to draft a QB here but with the lack of QBs being drafted (average of one per round) I feel I could wait until round 8 or 9 and still get a top ten QB. So I’m going to zag from my strategy and zig with everyone else.

Sims-Walker had a breakout season in 09. He’s the number one WR in Jacksonville. there’s huge upside here with very low risk. I like that.

4.10 Chad “Esteban” Ochocinco, CIN (consigliere)

He is a legit weapon on a team with some other big time weapons. He is capable of big numbers and even though he is aged a little bit i think he still has one more good season in him. I am not overly worried about him losing out to TO, i see him as going back to the numbers he got when TJ Housh was there.

He has top fantasy potential, and thats important to me.

4.11 Dallas Clark, IND (ep)

With WRs still flying off the board at an alarming rate for a non-PPR, I’ll zag and take the top TE. Clark over Antonio Gates because Vincent Jackson is not in SD to spread out secondaries.

4.12 Tony Romo, DAL (sockonfl)

Romo will be phenomenal once Bryant gets on the field, which will be as soon as he possibly can. Bryant was the first first rounder to sign indicating his desire to play. I can’t believe Romo is still on the board here.

Follow along with the draft as it happens.

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The Super Bowl success of pass-heavy teams like New Orleans, New England and Indianapolis along with rule changes to benefit quarterbacks and receivers have led to major changes in the NFL. This is all pretty obvious to fantasy veterans. We’ve noticed changes for some time and fantasy leagues have embraced the changes with points per reception and three-receiver setups.

It’s worth noting, however, that some of the most conservative offenses in recent history are embracing the pass. Let’s talk about a few of them.

New York Giants

I don’t see a lot of references to change in New York, but it’s obvious. Last season, injured RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw disappointed fantasy owners. While the blame is placed on their shoulders, don’t forget that Eli Manning threw the ball 509 times for 4,237 yards and 27 TDs. WR Steve Smith had 107 catches, WR Hakeem Nicks and WR Mario Manningham had a combined 104 and TE Kevin Boss had 42. Despite their expected health in 2010, do not overvalue Jacobs or Bradshaw.

Baltimore Ravens

The arrival of Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth speaks volumes about the direction the Ravens are going under coach John Harbaugh. Yes, Ray Rice will still be a significant part of the offense, but don’t be surprised if Joe Flacco surpasses the 3,800 yards and 21 TDs from 2009 by a large margin while throwing more passes to his receivers.

Chicago Bears

This one is so obvious it almost didn’t make the list. QB Jay Cutler threw for 4,526 and 27 TDs for Denver in 2008. Now his new offensive coordinator in Chicago, Mike Martz, was the orchestrator of the Greatest Show on Turf. Cutler also had a full season to get comfortable with the talent around him. Cutler’s not going to throw for 4,500, but he’ll throw for more than the 3,869 he had last season and Bears receivers like Devin Aromashodu will benefit. RBs Matt Forte and/or Chester Taylor should get a handful of catches, too.

Washington Redskins

Any team that trades for Donovan McNabb is going to throw the ball. While the Redskins won’t abandon the run for entire games like McNabb’s former team, the quarterback will add a wrinkle to the offense that Jason Campbell was never able to. On the surface, TE Chris Cooley and WR Santana Moss seem like the most likely beneficiaries.

Detroit Lions

Yes, they are always behind and throw the ball a lot anyway. But for years the Lions have run their running backs into the ground. They ruined Kevin Jones a few years ago then fed Kevin Smith until he broke down. The addition of pass-catching TE Tony Scheffler and speedy RB Jahvid Best, the maturation of QB Matthew Stafford and the return of a healthy WR Calvin Johnson could launch Detroit’s offense into pass-happy(ier) territory.

San Francisco 49ers

A full season of TE Vernon Davis playing to his potential and the further development of second-year WR Michael Crabtree will only help QB Alex Smith. If Smith can perform like the QB he was for the final 10 games of 2009, there will be far more fantasy value in San Francisco than RB Frank Gore and Davis.

Miami Dolphins

The inventors of the Wildcat offense will run the ball as long as they have a talented tandem like Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the backfield. However, the addition of Brandon Marshall will push the Dolphins’ current receivers down the depth chart into roles more befitting their talents and give developing QB Chad Henne a legitimate top-level receiving threat. If this offense goes nuts in the preseason, believe it.

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This is by no means supposed to be an all encompassing list, just a list of a few things that are more helpful to you on a page here than they are collecting dust with the rest of the dust in my brain.

Terrell Owens — This is the note that spurred the post you are reading now. Dudes, TO was a top 28 receiver in standard leagues in 2009. That makes him a fantasy starter in 14-team leagues. He accomplished this with quarterbacks that for whatever reason have not been remotely competent in the NFL. Owens also got it as the No. 1 receiving threat on a run-first team. As the No. 2 (or 1.5) to Chad Ochocinco on a pass-friendly Bengals team, we should expect more in 2010, right? Consider me a little optimistic on Owens now.

Kevin Kolb — Speaking of optimistic. Just kidding. I’m still not optimistic on Kolb. It’ll be interesting to see how a quarterback not named Donovan McNabb handles Andy Reid’s offense and the Eagles offensive weapons. I smell growing pains. They smell like interceptions. However, I did read one little tidbit today that made me contemplate my stance for a second. I’ll paraphrase it: Would Andy Reid let a star quarterback like Donovan McNabb go if he didn’t think Kolb was ready? Interesting thought. It didn’t change my mind, but I could see it pushing those of you on the fence over the other side. Please, don’t fall too hard.

Donovan McNabb – More on McNabb when my QB rankings are unveiled, and there are plenty of other QB rankings on the site right now. But the thing is, I could see myself getting more pessimistic on McNabb as the preseason moves along. McNabb’s facing a new system with new terminology and new moving parts. He’s a veteran and a professional, so I don’t expect too many hiccups, but hiccups there may be.

Knowshon Moreno – Bottom line: I won’t own him this season. His YPC, the team he’s surrounded by, his poor play at the end of the year in 2009 — too many red flags for me. I own Steven Jackson in a keeper league. I’ve watched him be awesome yet be less of a fantasy factor than he should be because of a poor surrounding cast. Moreno isn’t nearly as talented as Steven Jackson.

Felix Jones – You see a lot of Felix Jones love on this site, mostly from jzak. But take caution. Yes, Jones has bulked up to be more difficult to bring down, but more bulk also puts more strain on his knees and toes, two body parts that have kept us from seeing Jones’ true potential so far this season. Right now hold your right hand and left hand in front of you palm up. Put Jones’ 2010 fantasy potential in the left hand. Put his injury history in your right hand. Let us know what hand wins in the comments. For me it’s about even.

Dez Bryant – Injured his ankle at camp today and will undergo an MRI. It’s too bad because I was ready to gush. He earns a couple points for already signing and participating in camp. If he’s healthy, Bryant in that offense is a top 28 receiver. Easy. We’ll have to see what happens with the injury, but Tony Romo’s value falls if it is significant. [Update 9:08 p.m. -- Just got a breaking news email from footballguys.com saying Dez Bryant will miss 4-6 weeks. He should miss all of the preseason. The experts are calling it a "significant setback" and I agree. But if he's expected to be on the field by opening day he will still make a significant fantasy impact.]

Cedric Benson – Will not be suspended. That’s good news. People are expecting him to perform like he did last season but over a full 16 games. I’m not one of those people. Benson’s games played will be closer to 13 (his total in 2009) than 16 even without the suspension.

Matt Leinart – Last week I read an article from an ESPN the Magazine from last preseason — I’m a little behind — and it talked about not giving up on Leinart. The argument was a good one. I’m no believer, however, as we get closer to the season, I have a feeling you’ll see him on some sleeper lists. Maybe even on this site.

Wes Welker – The news was good last week. Welker was going to be able to complete all parts of training camp. Then the other day, boom, Welker gets put on the active PUP list. While he’s designated as physically unable to perform, the Patriots have the power to pull him off the list throughout the preseason. This is Bill Belichick and the Patriots so we can expect some ridiculous circumstances surrounding an injury to a star player. However, I’m going to be a little hesitant on drafting Welker until I see him make some cuts on the field.

Hakeem Nicks – I want Nicks over the Giants’ Steve Smith this season. Smith might be target No. 1 for Eli Manning, but I like Nicks’ value (lower draft slot, higher potential) better. Don’t forget, Nicks was running away from people last season on a bum wheel.

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My initial response: “RB-RB? How archaic?” Then I pondered: “What is the best positional strategy to use in 2010?” The answer hit me like a 300-pound defensive end hits in his contract year. Every one of these cookie-cutter strategies is for beginners.

Any “strategy” that shoehorns you into a certain situation — pick a QB late, RB-RB-WR-WR, best player available — will not help an experienced fantasy player. It can only hurt them.

Flexibility and versatility is the name of the game.

Winning tactics: Zag when they zig

Last year, I unveiled the Ninja Attack Plan. The words here mimic concepts in that piece, but it’s still worth a re-read. Some of you only want new hotness, I know. This summary is for you: “Ninjas don’t get pushed around, they attack.”

Despite some flawed thinking in that article — I mocked Miles Austin in favor of Patrick Crayton. Yikes — the team from that draft won one of the league’s two divisions and scored the third most points.

I didn’t know how successful that team was going to be but I did expect success from day 1. After a first-round bye, I lost in the semifinals to a team that somehow rostered almost all of 2009′s superstars, including Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson and Dallas Clark. Not surprisingly, he won the league.

In 2010, there is no better philosophy than to attack mercilessly. More wide receivers and quarterbacks are being taken early. There are more than three exciting tight ends to choose from, another contrast to previous seasons.

You left your poison-tipped arrows where?

If you ignore those trends and tell yourself you need a top 3 tight end or that you need to wait for a quarterback, you are leaving some of your best weapons at battlefield HQ.

There will be drafts where you end up with a top-3 tight end, but to feel like you need one is like marching into battle with blinders on. You’ll feel focused and prepared until a ninja takes your sleeper QB two rounds before his ADP.

Oops. You just got flanked and filleted, soldier. Have fun starting A.J. Feeley.

Let’s discuss another for instance: The draft begins with the first four backs — Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Frank Gore — flying off the board. But only one running back — Ray Rice — is taken over the next 14 picks. It’s an exaggeration, I know, but follow along for argument’s sake. That means the player at 1-2 who wanted to take a stud RB early, follow it up with a lower tier-1 receiver and a second back at the turn (RB-WR-RB, in cookie-cutter terms) is damaging the team if they follow their predetermined path.

I’d punt my starting lineup and go RB-RB-RB.

Be a hero: Attack the most vulnerable front

Why waste a third pick on an RB? You should always skim from the top of the pool that is overflowing and leave the backwash for someone else.

Risky? As risky as charging into battle as a lone wolf. But no great success has ever been made without great risk. Want another war axiom? Brainpower is nearly as helpful as firepower to a fantasy battlefield hero.

The fantasy owner pulling the strings must be a savvy lieutenant in the Ninja Army. You need to study resources here and at other respected websites. You need to know the names of all — yes, every single one — of the players that could be drafted, their potential for success and their potential for failure.

If you know potential superstar WRs like Hakeem Nicks, Pierre Garcon, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin are available with back-to-back picks in the sixth and seventh rounds (www.mockdraftcentral.com ADP), then you can confidently go RB-RB-RB and watch your less ninja-ey opponents squirm under the weight of your boot.

Someone who laughs off a WR-WR-WR start — not for the faint of heart, but if the chips fall in some ridiculous way, a ninja must strike — knows that running backs like Ben Tate, C.J. Spiller, Marion Barber, Fred Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw will all be available in the same turn at rounds 6-7.

For those of you turning your nose up at some of those backs, keep this in mind: Based on fantasy points scored, Barber, Jackson and Bradshaw were all fantasy starters in standard 14-team leagues last season.

Then again, if someone else zagged and those backs are gone you can pick a QB or TE. If you really want to go nuts, max out your WR quota and note who the boobirds are. They’ll be the ones ready to trade before the season even starts.

One key to this strategy is never settling for a player you don’t want. Never pick that second RB just because there are only two “good” ones left. Unless one of them is a back you badly want to roster, pick from another position. Your team will be better for it.

You’ll also have more fun.

A disrupted opponent already has one foot in the grave

Part of your duty when following a strategy like this is to obsolete your opponent’s tactics.

While everyone else is scrambling to get those last tier-1 wide receivers, you’re taking a top-level QB or TE, shouting “keep scrambling, fellas” and watching the sheep settle for scraps again next round. Chinstrap Ninjas settle for scraps at the end of the draft, you know, when scraps are all that’s left.

The draft is the best part of the fantasy football experience. When you’re in the driver’s seat controlling the flow while building a playoff-bound team, it’s even better.

This strategy has it’s rewards and risks, but you’ve never used one that was more fun.

Happy drafting and stay deadly.

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And rightfully so. With the emergence of running backs by committee, fantasy football has evolved yet again, leaving the rest of us to either adapt or suffer the consequences.

Factoring in a slew of new up-and-coming receiving talents, here are my 2010 wide receiver redraft rankings:

1. Andre Johnson, HOU. His age, size, speed and overall skill set make him a nightmare to cover and the top target in an excessively pass-happy offense that will see plenty of shootouts throughout the season.

2. Randy Moss, NE. Remember, this isn’t a dynasty ranking. Moss always plays better when he has something to prove. When he has a chip on his shoulder. When he’s playing for his next contract. He has all three going for him in 2010, and will see ample targets as the Patriots attempt one last hurrah before a potential changing of the guard. Moss will have an elite 2010. After that is anyone’s guess.

3. Roddy White, ATL. Shocked? Don’t be. Just look at Roddy’s consistency the past three seasons … even last year when Matt Ryan faced some growing pains. Ryan will rise from the ashes of his sophomore disappointment to post solid numbers, with Roddy White benefactor 1A.

4. Reggie Wayne, IND. Only certainties in life are death, taxes and that Reggie Wayne will post elite receiver stats. A bit of a logjam for the Colts passing game with the return of Anthony Gonzalez and a small decrease in stats across the second half of last season leave me ranking Wayne here, but he could easily finish as the top fantasy receiver this season, too.

5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI. Only uncertainty here begins and ends with the quarterback. Sure, the loss of Kurt Warner will likely affect Fitz’s numbers – slightly. I do think that Matt Leinart will need a big reliable receiver much like an infant relies on a favorite blankey or binky.

6. Calvin Johnson, DET. The Lions will be playing from behind plenty this season. Calvin and Matthew Stafford started showing signs of developed chemistry as the season wore on last year. The addition of Nate Burleson will help keep defenses from gang-covering Johnson. This all means a resurgence for the talented young pass catcher.

7. Miles Austin, DAL. Plenty of people are very high on Austin. I’m totally on the fence. Hard to get uber-excited just yet over a receiver who hasn’t proven his worth for an extended amount of time. Also curious to see how things are divvied out to an offense that gained an elite rookie receiver in Dez Bryant and promoted backfield receiving option Felix Jones to top dog running back.

8. Greg Jennings, GB. Coming off a down season by most people’s standards, Jennings was affected more by a slipshod O-line and Aaron Rodgers’ scramble for his life. Look at his stats later in the season when the O-line solidified a little. This season, Green Bay’s line is much improved. Jennings numbers will follow suit.

9. DeSean Jackson, PHI. If you haven’t read Larry Fitzgerald’s capsule above, do so now. Then insert Donovan McNabb into Kurt Warner’s slot and Kevin Kolb’s name in for Matt Leinart. Except Jackson isn’t as talented as Larry Fitz, hence the lower ranking here.

10. Brandon Marshall, MIA. If Marshall can make Kyle Orton look semi-legitimate, imagine what he can do with a young, talented Chad Henne? Offseason hip surgery may hamper him somewhat this summer and may affect his early season a tad, but Marshall is talented enough to net you plenty a fantasy point. If only he was more stable off the field.

11. Sidney Rice, MIN. Value is tied directly into Brett Favre’s impending return to the Vikings. If Favre somehow zigs when we all expect him to zag, like I suggest he should here, than Rice’s value plummets.

12. Vincent Jackson, SD. A super-talented young receiver with a history, lately, of being a knucklehead. Where have I heard this before? If he stays in San Diego and avoids suspensions or other sanctions, Jackson has the potential to move up this list at will. Question marks keep him here for the time being.

13. Steve Smith, CAR. A flag football injury won’t affect Smith’s 2010 regular season, according to various reports. Smith had a down 2009 due largely to ineffective QB play from Jake Delhomme. His stats saw a nice rebound when Matt Moore took over. Moore should start the season as the Panthers’ starter, and even if Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike see some reps, Smith is going to see his share of receptions.

14. Marques Colston, NO. I’ve never personally been a fan of Colston in terms of fantasy potential, but it is hard to argue his place in one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league. The emergence of Robert Meachem will open even more routes for Colston, and while you may need to suffer through a down game here and there, Colston should provide some solid outings the rest of the time.

15. Anquan Boldin, BAL. Bringing a whole new dimension to Baltimore, it will be interesting to see how the Ravens incorporate their new top receiver into an offense known for rushing more than anything through the air. Boldin has been questionable at times during the latter half of the season and has seen his share of injuries … however, a more balanced offensive attack will keep the pressure off Boldin’s shoulders and could lead to a nice rebound season.

16. Michael Crabtree, SF. Showed plenty of upside last season despite missing time early in the campaign. With a full preseason to work with Alex Smith and a solid running game keeping defenses honest, Crabtree should continue to climb these standings this season.

17. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX. Separated himself from the rest of the pack as the true WR1 in Jacksonville and benefits from defenses spending so much of their resources trying to stop Maurice Jones-Drew. It would be exciting to see what Sims-Walker could do with a more reliable QB under center.

18. Chad Ochocinco, CIN. How the elite have fallen in places. No. 85 is still flashing his gold teeth in the league, and will still likely sit atop the receptions pile in Cincinnati. The addition of Antonio Bryant should help give Ochocinco some breathing room. A bounce-back 2010 is a good possibility.

19. Hines Ward/Mike Wallace. Breaking the rules on this one, I know. However, as sweet as Mike Wallace looked last season in spells, it is hard for me to envision him as the definite top pass catching option with Hines Ward still playing. Byron Leftwich will be looking for reliability when he wings out a pass in place of the suspended Ben Roethlisberger, and Hines Ward is about as reliable as one could expect. In dynasty leagues, I’d want Mike Wallace hands-down out of the two. In redrafts, I really don’t know. Guess I’d lean on Ward’s side for this season, especially in PPR formats.

20. Steve Smith, NYG. Was a nice surprise for people who chose to grab him and stick with it. His receptions are plenty nice in PPR formats and he is the official No. 1 wideout in Giantsland at the moment.

21. Wes Welker, NE. A lot higher than most sites have Welker, but then again, most of those sites had rankings out before Welker’s near-miraculous recovery (so far) from a torn ACL and MCL. Watch his progress this summer. If he continues to improve at a rapid pace and finds himself starting fairly quickly into the regular season, than you’ve gotten yourself a bargain … especially in PPR formats.

22. Dwayne Bowe, KC. I’m never a fan of knuckleheads on my team, and Bowe is definitely one of those. After a suspension due to drugs last year, he reported that the Chiefs were supplying women to players on road trips. Can’t imagine that will help his stock on Sundays. The Chiefs need a reliable passing game if they want to take the next step forward as a franchise, and Bowe definitely has the skill set to produce. Just tread carefully.

23. Pierre Garcon, IND. Sure the Colts have a logjam of receiving talent, but Garcon has proven to be the official No. 2 WR in a Peyton Manning offense.

24. Hakeem Nicks, NYG. Second Giants receiver in a very short period of ranking? Am I nuts? Yes, but that isn’t the point. Reports from New York state that the battle between Nicks and Mario Manningham will be fast and furious for the No. 2 WR slot. Methinks that Nicks’ battle will be moreso for the top wideout spot by midseason.

25. TJ Houshmanzadeh, SEA. Someone has to catch passes in an offense that will habitually be playing catchup. Golden Tate is a rookie receiver, meaning he’ll likely be a factor moreso next year or the season after. Housh is falling far enough on enough boards to be considered a mild value pick. Just don’t reach for him.

26. Percy Harvin, MIN. Provided Brett Favre comes back to Vikingsland, Harvin should continue to mature in his second season. His skillset allows him to be involved in the offense in various ways, upping his staying power. Lingering headache issues could pose a problem at some point.

27. Robert Meachem, NO. Have to admit that I wasn’t really in-tune with Meachem until I saw him dropped in a dynasty league I’m in. Reports from all angles are super favorable for Meachem, who was a TD beast as the season wore on. There are some who think Meachem will leapfrog Marques Colston in New Orleans at some point this season. However, even as a No. 2 in a Drew Brees offense, Meachem has definite value.

28. Donald Driver, GB. I’m a Packers fan, but I’m not super-high on Driver this season. Notice how the roles shifted last season as the Packers O-line finally solidified. Driver will find himself in a more Wes Welkerian role … which helps him bounce up this list more than I would have liked.

29. Santonio Holmes, NYJ. The early-season suspension doesn’t exactly help his fantasy stock, but Holmes has the talent to help sophomore QB Mark Sanchez take the next step in his pro career. Considering that the Jets are a run-first club, Holmes will have some consistency issues at times … but at least defensive pressure will likely be focused more on Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson than the passing game.

30. Devin Aromashodu/Johnny Knox/Devin Hester, CHI. Cheating again here a little. Whoever emerges from this mass of receivers as the main option for Jay Cutler in a Mike Martz offense will catapult himself up this list quicker than the Roadrunner zips past Wile E. Coyote. However, reports from Chicago are so back-and-forth, it is nearly impossible at this point to determine who will rise to the top. So, in most leagues that are drafting around this time, you’re stuck drafting all three in hopes you hit the lottery, not that second place will be a bad option, either, in this offense.

Other receivers of note:

Kenny Britt will find himself as the top dog in the Tennessee passing game at some point this season. I’m just not that excited about Vince Young’s style of play in terms of being able to consistently feed the ball to Britt.

Steve Breaston and Early Doucet will play opposite Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Questions at QB make things a little muddy, and while Breaston has the early lead in terms of the WR2 job, Doucet’s size and skillset are arguably better than Breaston. Perhaps a late-round sleeper if you need one.

Many will be focused on rookie receivers Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, and even Eddie Royal, in Denver to give due credit to Jabar Gaffney. However, when push came to shove the end of last season, Gaffney was the one who did his job the best. If Gaffney holds off the competition for primary replacement to Brandon Marshall, he’ll be a nice sleeper pick in the late rounds.

Whoever winds up the WR2 in Houston could see a nice uptick in value. Kevin Walter’s hold on the spot is tenuous, as Jacoby Jones makes a play for the spot. Stay tuned.

With a possible suspension looming for Santana Moss, and his aging skillset, this is the year that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly need to start earning their paychecks. Either could be a sleeper in a Donovan McNabb offense, just not sure who will emerge.

Julian Edelman was a highly sought value player so far this summer in fantasy circles, but the quick recovery by Wes Welker will directly affect Edelman’s value for this season, since they’re from the same mold. If Welker has a setback, and considering his injuries, that is highly possible, Edelman is a sneaky nice add.

Make sure you check out our early dynasty wide receiver rankings, along with other 2010 redraft rankings at quarterback and tight end.

What do your redraft receiver rankings look like? Want to debate mine? We’d love to hear about it in the comments below.

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