Will your team get that flashy new running back you’ve always wanted or pick another overrated defensive end? According to most early mocks, your team will likely pick a non-skill player in the opening round.

But keep your hopes up, check out the full draft order for Round 1, total number of picks for each team in the 2010 NFL Draft and a discussion about compensatory picks.

We’re going to start with compensatory picks, even though it’s the last on the list becuase it needs to be explained before we get into the rest of the draft discussion.

In March, the NFL will dole out 32 compensatory picks. The picks will be awarded in the third through seventh rounds based on the value of free agents lost vs. the value of free agents gained. Value is determined by salary, playing time and postseason honors.

Those 32 picks are added to the 224 picks made in the seven rounds of the draft.

2010 NFL Draft order (Team record and total number of regular draft picks in parentheses):

1. St. Louis Rams (1-15, 9 picks)
2. Detroit Lions (2-14, 7 picks)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13, 9 picks)
4. Washington Redskins (4-12, 5 picks)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12, 8 picks)
6. Seattle Seahawks (5-11, 7 picks)
7. Cleveland Browns (5-11, 11 picks)
8. Oakland Raiders (5-11, 8 picks)
9. Buffalo Bills (6-11, 9 picks)
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9, 5 picks)
11. Denver Broncos (8-8, 6 picks) from Chicago
12. Miami Dolphins (7-9, 9 picks)
13. San Francisco 49ers (8-8, 8 picks)
14. Seattle Seahawks (5-11, 7 picks) from Denver
15. New York Giants (8-8, 7 picks)
16. San Francisco 49ers (8-8, 8 picks) from Carolina
17. Tennessee Titans (8-8, 6 picks)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 7 picks)
19. Atlanta Falcons (9-7, 5 picks)
20. Houston Texans (9-7, 8 picks)
21. Cincinnatti Bengals (10-6, 7 picks)
22. New England Patriots (10-6, 8 picks)
23. Green Bay Packers (11-5, 7 picks)
24. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, 7 picks)
25. Baltimore Ravens (9-7, 7 picks)
26. Arizona Cardinals (10-6, 7 picks)
27. Dallas Cowboys (11-5, 6 picks)
28. San Diego Chargers (13-3, 6 picks)
29. New York Jets (9-7, 5 picks)
30. Minnesota Vikings (12-4, 7 picks)
31. Indianapolis Colts (14-2, 6 picks)
32. New Orleans Saints (13-3, 6 picks)

Notes: San Francisco and Seattle are the only teams with multiple first-round picks. Both teams have two … Seattle has the eighth pick in the second round and, barring a trade, will select three of the first 40 players … Carolina (first pick at 2.16) and Chicago (first pick at 3.11) are the only teams without picks in the opening round.

Related posts

• The most extensive 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings on the net (6)
• The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2 (0)
• QB rankings: Settle, don’t reach for a QB (7)
• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)

Mike Sims-Walker — wouldn’t it be cool if the Jaguars tried to acquire as many hyphenated players as possible? Think of the possibilities — gives them a good opportunity to break into another dimension.

Now, it can’t all be on Sims-Walker. Quarterback David Garrard needs to step up and there needs to be more than one receiving option — tight end Zach Miller could help open up the field. But Sims-Walker’s performance in 2009, his first full season in the National Football League, is all we need to speculate on his potential.

He finished with 869 yards on 63 catches and scored seven TDs. Sims-Walker had three games with 100 or more yards receiving and had six catches or more in seven games.

The most concerning aspect of Sims-Walker’s 2009 season was inconsistency. For as strong a debut season as he had, the Jaguars receiver had just 16 catches, 175 yards and one TD from Week 12 through the end of the season.

Because of the inconsistency, let’s not get cray and put him in our top-20s for 20010. But despite his inconsistency, Sims-Walker feels like a top-30 wide receiver with the potential to surprise.

Related posts

• Week 9: Chambers, Lance Long and … Wait, what? (1)
• Week 5: Assess the battlefield and attack (0)
• Week 4 pre-game 6-pack: Brent Celek! (1)
• Week 2 box scores, what do they mean? [FFB] (0)
• Wake up! Have some breakfast links (0)

While many saner fantasy “experts” would urge patience and caution before jumping into the trading market, I’m recommending that all owners to channel their ninja senses and go for the trade-button jugular.

This is mainly because of what is lining up to be a major value wave among the ranks of fantasy elite after the first two weeks of action.

Below are players who should figure heavily into trade discussions sooner rather than later.

1. Matt Forte. A horrific start for the Bears second-year player has many whispering about a sophomore slump. What many may overlook is that Forte started the season against two very solid run defenses and has weathered a period of transition in the passing game as Jay Cutler and company work to define their roles. Forte will burst back into the fantasy scene this week against a Seattle defense that has been shredded on the ground (most recently by Frank Gore). If you’ve been slow to trading in the past, this is the one opportunity you don’t want to drag your feet on. Many may be slow to deal him so early in the season, but then again, people who drafted Forte are likely facing an 0-3 start to the season — plenty of reason to panic.

2. Steve Slaton. The Texans have been on an offensive roller coaster ride so far this season, but Slaton has been the one constant — constantly stale. Two weeks, two excessively poor performances. Slaton is a harder case to judge (than Forte), in my opinion. He faced one of the most under-rated defenses in football in the Jets in week one, and ran against a stingy Titans defense last week … one that was much more susceptible to the pass than the run. His three fumbles are worrisome, as are comments from coach Kubiak that the Texans should have considered Cedric Benson this offseason. Regardless, Slaton is too talented not to turn it around at least somewhat, and has a slate of games now schedule-wise that he should be able to exploit (Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, Bengals). He’s too bargain-basement not to throw some offers out for at this point, I just worry that he sees more struggles this season that Matt Forte will.

3. Clinton Portis. I said before that these are players who should be involved in trade discussions, and Portis is an interesting case. Everyone considers the name Portis to be synonymous with consistency from a fantasy standpoint, and for years that was the case. He did tank it as the season progressed last year and has been mediocre at best in 2009. His stats against the Rams last week was disheartening, but he still should rebound mightily against the Lions this week. After that, however, I would recommend floating his name around your league to see what interest is out there. If Portis does light things up in Week three, he could be a solid bartering piece for you to land a younger, long-term option for the rest of the long haul.

4. Aaron Rodgers. It pains me to say this in public, but I have severe concerns for Rodgers after watching my beloved Packers after two weeks of action. The O-line and the overall pass blocking is atrocious. He spent more time in the grass last week than my push mower does in a month. If this keeps up, the biggest question about Rodgers won’t be how many TDs he chucks or yards he passes for, but how long until he is hampered by a major injury. This week, the Packers, and Rodgers in particular, should fare pretty well against the Rams. However, after that, the team hits a tough part of the scheduling starting with a Week four Monday night game against the Vikings. I would strongly consider dealing Rodgers after this week for a under-rated fantasy QB such as Matt Ryan.

5. Michael Turner. Drafted in the top three of most fantasy leagues, Turner has put up pedestrian numbers the first two weeks of the season. Considering his campaign last year and the slow start to 2009, he should be a buy-low candidate, right? Not so fast. First, he’s basically a non-factor in the Falcons passing game, limiting his value in PPR leagues. Secondly, his big saving grace last year were the 17 rushing touchdowns. This year, the addition of Tony Gonzalez along with a more prolific passing attack in general will logically eat away at Turner’s scoring opportunities. Will he still have big games? Sure! Will be he one of the top three scoring running backs in fantasyland? I’m not so sure.

6. Pierre Thomas. Pierre was primed for big numbers until bitten in the preseason by the injury bug. He sat on the sidelines and watched Mike Bell garner all the stats and attention that Thomas was due. In a weird twist of fate, Bell is now the one injured and Thomas is on the verge of headlining the rushing game. A good time to buy Pierre and hope that he starts fast out of the gates to keep Bell at bay.

7. Anthony Gonzalez. As most anyone who watches football knows by this point, Gonzalez’s promising 2009 season was sidetracked by a sprained PCL. He’ll be out another month or so. However, when he does come back, Gonzalez has the makings of a solid sleeper receiver in an offense geared towards the pass. If you are in a dynasty league, you should definitely be making some offers for AGonzo. However, even in redraft leagues for the right price, the young Colts receiver would be a good player to stash away for a rainy day when your team is making a push for a playoff spot.

8. Joe Flacco. After two weeks of play, which QB has 500 yards passing and five touchdowns? No one would have guessed that Flacco would be in this category. There is a reason for that — the Ravens have always been a run-first, pass-second offense. Flacco adds a new dimension to the offense, but the Ravens have several able-bodied running backs in Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain and a lackluster group of receivers. Flacco’s numbers will slip in the near future, and now may be a good time to deal him for a Matt Ryan or even a Matt Schaub, if you can.

9. Tim Hightower. The Cardinals running back has been a statistical fireworks display in PPR leagues thanks to a ton of receiving yards and opportunities in the offense. However, Arizona will be a different team when Anquan Boldin is on the field and fully healthy, limiting Hightower’s numbers in the passing game. Also, the Cardinals will continue to inject more and more of rookie Beanie Wells into the offensive scheme. Depending on which players you can get for Hightower, he may be a guy worth dangling in trade talks.

10. Knowshon Moreno. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later for the most talented running back on the Broncos roster. Moreno, a rookie, was given 17 carries and capitalized for 75 yards along with two catches for 22 additional yards through the air. This may have gone unnoticed in mostly redraft leagues due to lack of touchdowns … something that will change as Moreno has more and more opportunities to flash his talent on the field.

Want more sound fantasy advice? Check out ninja ep’s Week 2 recap, a box-by-box review of each Week 2 game with individualized fantasy analysis, charts and analysis on points allowed by position after Week 2 and a detailed discussion on the NFL’s most targeted players after two weeks of play.

Related posts

• Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (2)
• The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2 (0)
• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)

Injury Updates:  The four major injuries coming into week two appear to be: 

•  
  1. Donovan McNabb – Unlikely to play with rib injury
  2. LaDainian Tomlinson – Gametime decision with ankle injury
  3. Matt Cassel – Probable to come back this week.
  4. Pierre Thomas – Knee in heavy brace but possibly on track to play

On to the games: 

Carolina at Atlanta

Panthers:  Can Jake Delhomme look much worse than the last two games he has played?  I doubt it.  I look for them to bounce back offensively in this contest.  Steve Smith should be a solid play in this one as last year in two contests he had over 300 yards receiving and 1 TD in contests versus the Falcons. 

Falcons:  Not really sure on what to expect from the Atlanta offense in this one.  I would say they would have to abandon the run to play catch up to Carolina’s offense thus I would consider playing Matt Ryan, Roddy, and Gonzo this week. 

Minnesota at Detroit

Vikings:  Adrian Peterson owners have to be salivating at another fine matchup this week against the lowly Lions.  It could be another 150+ yard multi TD day for All Day.  The Vikings defense is a solid play this week. 

Lions:  Seeing that Kevin Smith is most of the Lions offense until Stafford gets his feet wet in the next few games, Smith and the Lions should be in for a long day against the Williams Wall. 

Cincinnati at Green Bay

Bengals:  The Bengal offense did not produce much against what was a horrible defense last year in Denver last week.  The Packers played very well defensively in week one and should have another good week upcoming versus the Bungles. 

Packers:  The Bears kept Aaron Rodgers and the offense out of rhythm all night last week.  I don’t think the Bengals can put on the QB pressure that the Bears did though and look for this offense to put up some big numbers this week.  Most skill position players for the Packers should be in your starting lineup this week as well as the Packer defense too. 

Houston at Tennessee

Texans:  Should be another rough week for the Texans to get off the ground with stout Titan defense this week.  Other than Andre Johnson, I think you sit the rest of the Texans this week. 

Titans:  The Texans gave up a ton of rushing yards to the Jets in week one.  Look for more of the same to continue against the run heavy Titan offense.  Chris Johnson and LenDale White are must starts this week. 

Oakland at Kansas City

Raiders:  I think the Raiders actually have a nice matchup this week against the Chiefs.  I would definitely start Darren McFadden this week, along with the guy everyone should be watching as an early waiver wire pickup, Louis Murphy. 

Chiefs:  The one area of defense that the Raiders lack is run defense.  That should allow Larry Johnson to have a nice day as he had 92 yards and a TD in the two team’s last encounter. 

New England at New York Jets

Patriots:  Should be an interesting battle this season between these two as there has been a lot of trash talk between the two this offseason.  Brady seemed very vulnerable at times against Buffalo.  As long as the Jet defense can apply pressure, it could be a long afternoon for the Brady Bunch. 

Jets:  Yes I am a homer Jet fan through and through, but I really think the Jet RBs will have a strong game in this one as Fred Jackson was fairly successful last week even with a mostly rookie offensive line in front of him.  Sanchez will probably have another roller coaster game again. 

New Orleans at Philadelphia

Saints:  Look for Pierre Thomas or Mike Bell to be effective this week versus the Eagles.  Reggie Bush typically struggles in the contests with Philly.  Saints defense might also be a plug and play option again this week as Kevin Kolb will probably be under center for the Eagles 

Eagles:  They will be mostly running the football with Westbrook and McCoy this week.  DeSean Jackson should probably be on your bench this week without a healthy McNabb in there.   

Cleveland at Denver

Browns: If ever there was a game to start Jamal Lewis this is definitely it.  Even the paltry Cedric Benson had 108 total yards and a TD last week.  

Broncos:  Check the injury reports prior to gametime, but I think this is the game the Broncos unleash Knowshon Moreno and he has a fine game for them this week. 

St Louis at Washington

Rams:  I know one of my colleagues says you should always play your stud players, but I recommend sitting ALL Rams this week, including Steven Jackson.  They could not score against Seattle last week and the Skins have a much better defense this week. 

Redskins:  This is a start them all situation this week for the Skins.  Jason Campbell makes a great plug and play option for you Donovan McNabb owners out there.  The defense is a must play this week. 

Arizona at Jacksonville

Cardinals:  Kurt Warner and the passing game was relatively ineffective in week one.  I look for more of the same this week until Warner gets his rhythm this year.  This could make the Cards 0-2 to start the season. 

Jaguars:  The Cards bottled up Frank Gore most of the contest last week against the Niners.  I foresee some more of the same against Jones-Drew this week.  This should be a tight contest won by a TD throw from David Garrard late in the game. 

Tampa Bay at Buffalo

Bucs:  The only thing of fantasy value to start for the Bucs is Derrick Ward and Caddy Williams.  If Posluszny is out this week, look for each of them to have an effective day again. 

Bills:  The Bucs gave up a lot of rushing yards in week one.  Fred Jackson had a lot of fantasy points in week one.  That can only spell for another successful week for Jackson.  He should be starting this week.  Trent Edwards may not be a bad plug and play QB either as Romo lit it up last week against the Buc defense. 

Seattle at San Francisco

Seahawks:  I look for Matt Hasselbeck to be another solid play this week against the Niner defense.  Yes the Cards did not pass well last week, but Warner has not hit his stride yet.  Play Houshmandzadeh and Carlson as well this week. 

Niners:  Frank Gore should be a solid play this week as once again the Niners keep the ball on the ground to keep the opposing offense off of the field.  It worked against Arizona, maybe it works even better this week too. 

Pittsburgh at Chicago

Steelers:  The Bears put a ton of pressure on Aaron Rodgers last week and look for more of the same this week against the sieve offensive line that the Steelers have.  This game has Bear upset in the making written all over it.  Typical trap game for the Super Bowl champs. 

Bears:  Jay Cutler needs to continue working on his timing with the receivers to avoid another disaster like last week.  He is going to have to produce in what I suspect will be a hard fought victory by the Bears. 

Baltimore at San Diego

Ravens:  For all of those waiver wire vultures that took Joe Flacco based on his performance against the lowly Chief defense, I think you will be surprised when he gets a little more ordinary when he plays a better defense like the Chargers.  Look for Ray Rice to have another decent game though running the ball. 

Chargers:  Over the years this contest has been a defensive struggle on most occasions.  LT is injured going in and I am even benching him in favor of Kevin Faulk in a ppr league that I am in.  I would recommend the Charger defense in this one. 

New York Giants at Dallas

Giants:  Both Derrick Ward and Caddy Williams ran through the Cowboy defense like Swiss cheese last week.  Look for more of the same from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw this week.  In fact I think the Giants spoil the Cowboys stadium opener on Sunday primetime TV. 

Cowboys:  Should be another close contest in this matchup of NFC East rivals.  The Cowboys will need to pass more to keep up as the Giants play a nice game of keep away, milking the clock with that powerful running game. 

Indianapolis at Miami

Colts:  The Dolphins shut down Micheal Turner last week, so its hard to recommend starting either Addai or Brown this week.  Not sure what you will get out of Peyton Manning either minus Anthony Gonzalez in the lineup.  This could be a tough struggle for the Colts to win. 

Dolphins:  I recommended Ronnie Brown last week and he disappointed me.  I am sticking with him this week though, as MJD had a successful game running the ball last week against the Bob Sandersless Colts.   

Related posts

• The most extensive 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings on the net (6)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (2)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)

This year, there is a chance the Colts don’t even finish in the top half of the division. Sure, part of that is because the Colts may have lost a half-step, but it is more a factor of the improvements to both the Titans and Texans.

Anyone needing a division rich in fantasy potential, the AFC-South is the place for you …

Tennessee Titans

1. Totally a gut feeling here – nothing really to back it up with – but I get this feeling that out of last year’s amazing crop of rookie running backs, that Chris Johnson sees the most depreciation this year. I know, it doesn’t make sense. He’s in an offense designed to run with plenty of protection and a defense that allows the Titans to run the ball early and often in time-killing strategy. However, while I don’t usually take stock in preseason action, Johnson was surprisingly stale this summer. He struggled to make it out of the backfield ways too often for my taste. I know that I’m being unreasonably pessimistic for no reason, but you can’t ignore your gut reaction sometimes in fantasy football.
2. I was all over the Justin Gage bandwagon last year, and was sorely disappointed. Perhaps it’s that sour taste in my mouth that keeps me from getting excited about him this year. Meanwhile, rookie Kenny Britt has been rock solid in preseason action and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Britt has a better statistical season than Gage in 2009.
3. Too bad fantasy scoring doesn’t include points for not making mistakes … than there would some value in drafting Kerry Collins onto your roster. He’s a solid real-life QB that has gone through an amazing roller-coaster journey since his Penn State days, but he has no business seeing the light of day on your fantasy roster.
4. Losing Albert Haynesworth will affect the Titans defense, as will a much more difficult schedule in 2009. People are drafting the Titans defense on name recognition, and for that reason, the squad is going much too early in drafts to make many of my fantasy rosters this year.
5. If you read my fantasy kicker strategy, you know that I have very low expectations for most people’s projected 2009 fantasy kicker darling, Steven Gostkowski. When the dust settles in 2009, I feel that Rob Bironas will be the league’s top scoring kicker – at worse, he’ll be in the top three. Not that you should reach in your draft to take him. See why here.

Houston Texans

1. People who know me realize quickly that the Texans are my team 1b to the Green Bay Packers 1a. One reason is because I see Matt Schaub as a true QB value player in fantasy circles. Many question his injury history, but take out a slew of illegal hits, and Schaub would be considered a top 5 fantasy QB. The more I watch him, the more I like. Call it a man-crush, but here’s predicting he stays upright enough this season to break the top five in signal calling (behind Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Manning, in that order).
2. Steve Slaton silenced the critics who felt he was too small to make the cut as a featured NFL running back. What helps him is that the offense is balanced enough that he doesn’t see regular stacked defenses and guys keying off just him. Some are concerned about Chris Brown stealing some goal-line carries, but I fear him as much as a blind newborn kitten.
3. It’s easy to daydream about the super-talent that is Andre Johnson, but don’t overlook Kevin Walter in your respective fantasy league. Walter is fantasy gold in TD-heavy leagues and if Schaub stays healthy all season (as I predict), Walter will only improve as a fantasy factor across the board.
4. Want a sneaky-good play at kicker in 2009? Look no further than Kris Brown, who plays for a team that will score often enough to keep him in the red zone, but not so much that his stats are wasted in PAT attempts and not field goals.
5. Owen Daniels is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy tight ends … he just doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Miss out on Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez in your draft? No problem … fill another starting position with a true talent in the third or fourth round and wait until later in your draft for Daniels. He’ll be a solid TE again this year, breaking the top five at the position.

Indianapolis Colts

1. Peyton Manning has been so good for so long, he’s become the vanilla ice cream of the league’s quarterbacks. Of course, that means that while he’s the benchmark and staple of the NFL’s signal callers, he’s a constant with little extra pizzazz to get excited about. I’m not bashing Manning here. I’ve been a fan his whole career. He has developed great chemisty with Anthony Gonzalez and while Reggie Wayne is no Bruce Wayne, he still is a force to be reckoned with. Manning will be a top-four QB, but unfortunately, people draft him much too high in most drafts for him to be a true value player.
2. Speaking of Anthony Gonzalez, you should be excited if he’s the top receiver on your bench this year. He will see consistent targets and opportunities to excel in the league this year. If I had to pick one Colts player to be a true value player in 2009, I’d choose Gonzalez, hands down.
3. It’s really hard to predict what will happen with the two-headed monster at running back in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Addai should be able to bounce back this year, but Brown impressed most this summer and stands to see an increased role in the Colts offense right out of the gate. Because of this, I wouldn’t trust Addai for anything more than an RB3 with upside.
4. Adam Vinatieri is one of the most recognizable kicker names in all of football – just don’t think that translates into fantasy points. Injuries have taken their toll on Vinatieri, and he’s a kicker worth avoiding in most scoring formats.
5. Dallas Clark is a tight end worth considering if the price is right – however, he seldom falls too far past the top three tight end options, and offers much in the way of value in most snake-based drafts. I have seen him go fairly cheaply in auction-based leagues. However, it seems that many times, people panic when they see Gates, Gonzo and Witten go off the board, and they overextend to snag Clark. Wait a few rounds and get an Owen Daniels or wait even longer and choose a true sleeper like Brent Celek.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1. If Owen Daniels is the Rodney Dangerfield of tight ends, a case could be made for David Garrard to be the same in the QB category. Most people don’t realize that he was a top-10 QB in many scoring formats last year. Now he’s added an aged yet talented Torry Holt to his arsenal. Garrard isn’t an every-week starter, but continues to be a great value in most drafting formats.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew has become many a fantasy experts pet project in 2009, and for good reason. MJD has the skills both in running and catching out of the backfield to be a reliable fantasy option in 2009. However, it’s hard for me to coronate him as a top-two back (as many have done) without seeing him carry the rock 30 times a game, 16 games a season.
3. Torry Holt has lost a step in overall speed, but he knows how to position himself to make the catch time and time again. He isn’t a guy you want to rely on as a fantasy starter in 2009, but as a bye-week fill-in, depending on the matchup, you could do much worse than Holt.
4. I’ll give you two sugar cookies and a vanilla wafer if you can name the starting tight end for the Jaguars? If you said Mercedes Lewis, you may be wrong. The Jags recently picked up Dolphins dropee Earnest Wilford, and plan to use him … he couldn’t possibly drop as many passes as Lewis did last year, right? Either way, there is no immediate value in drafting a Jaguar kicker in fantasy circles.
5. A rookie to watch closely this year is RB Rashad Jennings. After trimming their roster this summer, the Jags are down to basically MJD and Jennings at the position (Greg Jones is still around, but won’t be a fantasy factor). MJD has yet to shoulder the load for a full season, and I fully expect Jennings to be a part of the offensive plan from week one.

What are your fearless predictions for the AFC-South? Check back for more divisional previews and weekly fantasy projections here at www.chinstrapninjas.com

Related posts

• Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (2)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)

It’s completely unnecessary.

Looking at a draft list from last year, Kurt Warner was picked in the 17th round, Philip Rivers was picked in the 15th and Aaron Rodgers was picked in the 13th.

In case you were comatose for the entire season, all three of those guys finished in the top 5.

Now, our league wasn’t filled top to bottom with experts, but there were plenty of questions surrounding each of those players going into the season and I’m sure they were incredible values across almost all formats and in most every league. They faced questions like Matt Cassel, Trent Edwards and Jay Cutler face this season.

Quarterback is the best position in fantasy football to seek out value and while I’m about to tell you that Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the three best QBs in the game, I wouldn’t recommend you draft any of them in standard leagues.

The only exception to this rule is a league that allows you to play two starting QBs. If you have Brees and someone like Warner or Rodgers you are going to have a clear advantage over just about every other team in your league.

With that in mind, these quarterback rankings are intended for standard scoring re-draft leagues:

QB Tier 1

1. Drew Brees, Saints - The most prolific offensive player in the game in standard scoring leagues.

2. Tom Brady, Patriots - Should be back and throwing to those weapons that made him a fantasy god in 2007.

3. Peyton Manning, Colts - Proved last year that he doesn’t need a dominant Marvin Harrison, or a competent running game to throw for 4,000 yards and almost 30 TDs.

QB Tier 2

4. Kurt Warner. Cardinals - Yes, he’s a year older, but those weapons are so dericious.

5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Will be a Tier 1 quarterback next year. Lot’s of weapons.

6. Donovan McNabb, Eagles - Still the man in Philadelphia. He can score 40 points in any given week and win your matchup almost single-handedly.

7. Philip Rivers, Chargers – Rivers can’t repeat last year’s performance, can he? Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates hope he can.

8. Tony Romo, Cowboys - With TO he’s a lock for Tier 1. Not sold Roy Williams can handle the responsibility of and hype that goes with being WR1 on America’s Team. But Jessica Simpson’s ex still has a good cache of weapons.

9. Matt Ryan, Falcons - Bulked up over the offseason. The team added Tony Gonzalez and wants to lighten the load on Michael Turner. /Raises eyebrow/ Dare we think about numbers that could put him in Tier 1 in 2010? We dare.

10. Carson Palmer, Bengals - No TJ Housh, but Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles and the Randy-Moss like (?) Chris Henry, coupled with reports that Palmer’s throwing darts out there, has me anticipating a good season. Value in 2009. Ranked as a stud again in 2010.

QB Tier 3

11. Trent Edwards, Bills - The Terrell Owens factor has been beaten around pretty good at Chinstrap Ninjas. TO makes: Lee Evans, a solid No. 1, into a great No. 2; Josh Reed, a questionable No. 2, into a solid No. 3; and opens up the rest of the field.

12. Jay Cutler, Bears - On the surface he has less weapons, but it’ll be interesting to see how Greg Olsen, Devin Hester and Matt Forte evolve with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB at the helm.

13. Matt Schaub, Texans - Schaub gets a lot of love on this site, for obvious reasons. He’s got one of the few receivers worthy of a first-round pick and a stable of other weapons at his disposal. If only he could stay healthy.

14. David Garrard, Jaguars - Let it be known, I’ve got a Garrard man-crush this season. And, in case you were unaware, he was the ninth best fantasy QB in standard scoring leagues last year.

15. Kyle Orton, Broncos - If Brandon Marshall stays, Orton will find some success running that offense.

16. Chad Pennington, Dolphins - You know who the No. 11 QB in standard fantasy scoring leagues was last year? This guy. Look it up.

17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks - Any time a team adds a player the caliber of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the quarterback has to be happy. Problem is, Hasselbeck has to be right to make this whole thing work.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - Two years ago, Big Ben had 32 TD passes with 11 picks and 3,100+ yards. I wouldn’t count on that again, but he’ll be better than he was a year ago.

19. Eli Manning, Giants - The Giants run the ball down the field. The younger Manning is typically overrated on draft day.

20. Brett Favre/Sage Rosenfels Vikings - Favre’s coming to Minnesota and will throw a lot of long passes, to Vikings receivers and opponents. But Rosenfels will start a game or two.

21. Matt Cassel, Chiefs - I’d like to say Cassel is a sleeper, but he’s got Dwayne Bowe and little else on a bad team.

QB Tier 4

22. Jake Delhomme, Panthers - In 2004 and 2005, he was fantasy relevant. Now, especially with the running game’s success, not so much. But, as I’ve said in other places, any QB throwing to Steve Smith could pop out a good game or two.

23. Duante Culpepper/Matt Stafford, Lions - Oh, Lions fans, what pain you must feel. Yes, the QB will have weapons – Calvin Johnson could pop out a best receiver in the game type season any year now – but I have a feeling the QBs will split starts down the middle. Obviously, in dynasty and keeper leagues, Stafford rockets into low-tier 2/high-tier 3.

24. Shaun Hill/Alex Smith, 49ers - The uncertainty over who should start is aggravating. Hill proved he was better last year, but because of the competition I wouldn’t be surprised to see Smith get a couple starts this year.

25. Jason Campbell, Redskins - Jason, still waiting for you to be a fantasy factor of any kind.

26. Joe Flacco, Ravens - He was not much of a fantasy factor last year with Derrick Mason.

27. Jeff Garcia/JaMarcus Russell - News this week is that the starting QB job is Russell’s to lose. Did you see him play last year? He’ll lose it.

28. Brady Quinn/Derek Anderson, Browns - Like the 49ers competition above, both guys will get playing time and will have a potential play-making WR to throw to.

29. Kellen Clemens/Mark Sanchez, Jets - Sanchez is the future – and should be drafted higher accordingly in dynasty/keeper setups – but whoever the now is will throw to an overrated Jerricho Cotchery and the esteemed duo of Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney.

30. Luke McCown/Freeman/Leftwich/J.Johnson, Buccaneers - Uuuuuuugggly. McCown gets first shot at it, says coach. Byron Leftwich is better. Josh Freeman is possibly the future. Not sure how the Marlins feel about Josh Johnson playing in the NFL. I’m not touching this mess unless they show me something amazing in preseason.

31. Marc Bulger, Rams - Speaking of mess.

32. Kerry Collins, Titans - Chris Johnson and LenDale White get way too many touches, Collins is as old as dirt. (Dirt is Kurt Warner.) Plus, there’s that whole Vince Young is getting paid a lot of money to sit on the bench thing.

33. Tyler Thigpen, Chiefs - His running ability out of the QB slot makes him an interesting wildcat option on a team that will need every gadget it can conjure.

34. Vince Young, Titans - As a wildcat or a starter, Young will be slightly relevant in at least one and a half games this year.

35. Pat White, Dolphins/Troy Smith, Ravens - Like Young and Thigpen, I’d wildcat them a couple times as a coach just to see what happens. Yes, that’s me turning wildcat into a verb.

Other Notable Backups

Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF; Chad Henne, MIA; Kevin O’Connell, NE; Rex Grossman, HOU; Patrick Ramsey, TEN; Chris Simms, DEN; Kevin Kolb, PHI; Drew Stanton, DET; Matt Leinart, ARZ; Seneca Wallace, SEA.

Sorry for the novel-esque length, but what do you think? Who’s in your top 10? Speak to us in the comments (they’re below), or start a discussion on our forums.

Related posts

• The most extensive 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings on the net (6)
• Ninja prediction: My true sleeper QB for 2009 (5)
• The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2 (0)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)

What I’m saying is, that my guess is as good as anybody’s at this point, especially with zero hours of training camp logged.

But that’s not going to stop me or any of the other million fantasy footballers out there from scraping their thoughts into a pile, scooping them onto a page and serving them to readers with a sprig of parsley.

The nearest parsley store is miles from the Chinstrap Ninjas offices, so I’m dumping these to you sans parsley. You’ll deal, I know, but I’m still going to make it easy on you by providing this dish in four bite-sized courses.

Top 5 rookies for 2009

• Chris Wells, RB, Cardinals
• Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos
• Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
• Donald Brown, RB, Colts
• LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

Razz the five owners who make these picks

• Donald Brown, RB, Colts – When the colts replace RBs they get rid of the old when they bring in the new – Faulk and James, James and Addai. 50-50 split anyone?
• Shonn Green, RB, Jets - He’ll be lucky to split carries with two other proven backs on a team that has no passing game to take off the pressure.
• Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - The quarterback for the Lions. Do you need any other ammo?
• Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders - He’ll go down as one of the worst first-round picks ever.
• Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles - Remember Freddie Mitchell?

Five IDP rookies to watch

• Aaron Curry, LB, Seahawks
• Brian Cushing, LB, Texans
• Aaron Maybin, DE, Bills
• Ray Maualuga, LB, Bengals
• James Laurinaitis, LB, Rams

Five rookies you should contemplate late

• Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars
• Jarrett Dillard, WR, Jaguars
• Ian Johnson, RB, Vikings
• Nate Davis, QB, 49ers
• Patrick Turner, WR, Dolphins

Related posts

• QB rankings: Settle, don’t reach for a QB (7)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• Three sleepers you don’t want to sleep on [FFB] (4)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Week One waiver wonders: Guys to grab before gametime (0)

In looking at running back stats over the past 5 years I found a few statistical consistencies that could provide a radical new approach to drafting running backs in fantasy drafts for years to come.

What do these players all have in common?

• 2004- Corey Dillon – Patriots
• 2005- Lamont Jordan – Raiders
• 2006- Frank Gore – 49ers
• 2007- Jamal Lewis – Browns
• 2008- Michael Turner – Falcons, DeAngelo Williams-Panthers

If you guessed that they finished in the top-10 in fantasy points scored (non-ppr) by a running back in their respective seasons you would be absolutely correct. In fact none of these players finished lower than 7th in their respective season.

What does a closer look at these players reveal?

In 2004, Corey Dillon was playing his first season with the Patriots after coming over from the Bengals. Lamont Jordan signed a free agent deal prior to the 2005 season with the Raiders and that was his first season with them. Frank Gore finally beat out Kevan Barlow and was handed the RB job in 2006. Jamal Lewis signed a free agent deal prior to the 2007 season to come to the Browns. Michael Turner signed a free agent deal to come to the Falcons for 2008. In 2008, DeAngelo Williams was finally given the chance to be the lead back after struggling to unseat DeShuan Foster.

The revelation is that at least 1 top ten running back will be a player that switched teams or became the feature back an offense in that season.

How does this impact drafting strategy for the 2009 season?

Derrick Ward and Fred Taylor were the only 2 free agents to sign new contracts. Fred Taylor is in an awfully full backfield in New England so we can probably eliminate him from a top ten finish.

Pierre Thomas will see an expanded role in New Orleans this season. I also expect Darren McFadden to break out with a greater role.

If we go off past history, however, a free agent signee has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five seasons. Therefore my secret selection at running back for this upcoming season is Derrick Ward, although I would not mind Pierre Thomas on my squad either.

Oh, you probably thought I was going to wrap up my analysis here and call it a night. No way, we are only half way through my new draft theory.

What do these players have in common?

• 2004- Willis McGahee – Bills
• 2005- Mike Anderson – Broncos
• 2006 – Maurice Jones Drew – Jaguars
• 2007 – Adrian Peterson – Vikings
• 2008 – Matt Forte – Bears, Steve Slaton – Texans

This one is a little easier to figure out. I hope that you guessed correctly. They were all rookies in those respective seasons, except for Anderson who was coming back from injury and obscurity in 05.

Another fact: These backs also finished in the top-10 in fantasy points scored (non ppr) by a running back in their respective seasons. The revelation is that a rookie running back will finish in the top-10 in fantasy points scored by a running back.

What does this mean for your 2009 draft?

Draft as many rookies as you can because these guys are hard to figure out.

Knowshon Moreno usually comes off the board first. He is followed by Chris Wells, Donald Brown, LeSean McCoy, and Shonn Greene. That would probably be the order I would try to draft them in at least.

You should be able to pick up most of these backs in the 3rd round or later in your redraft league so pick as many of the above listed backs as you can. If you are in an auction style draft (if you are not, you don’t know what you are missing), you could probably easily pick up a backfield of Derrick Ward, Pierre Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells and Donald Brown all for the price of what you pay for 2 heavy hitters at the position.

I know what you are thinking. Man, I really don’t want my running back corp. to look like the group above at all. You have to think outside the box on this one and trust the research. (Ed. — That’s what Ninjas do, Socko!) I am going to personally test out this strategy in one of my drafts this season. I hope some of you will too.

If the strategy turns out to be a winner please, remember where you heard it first. (Ed., again — That’s S-O-C-K-O-N-F-L at www.chinstrapninjas.com, if you’re keeping score at home.)

If it’s a loser, well I don’t think Monty Python ever found the Holy Grail in his movie either, so it could have just merely been a mirage.

Related posts

• Fantasy Football: RB rankings: Nos. 21-50 (5)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (2)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• QB rankings: Settle, don’t reach for a QB (7)

A couple days ago I told everyone about the running back situation, and about how after the first five or six backs, there are gobs of serviceable backs. I also recommended picking top tier wide receivers instead, it’s not the first time I did such a thing, not even close.

While perusing several online lists to figure out my keepers in one 10-player dynasty league, I was surprised by some of the lists. In particular, I was surprised how people were so split on Kevin Walter, yet each list had Donnie Avery in the top 25.

Avery is one of my sleepers — I kept him in that league — and I think he’ll do well, but Walter has an impressive track record and he’ll be Andre Johnson’s Wes Welker this year when the Texans offense starts clicking.

I kept Walter, in case you couldn’t tell. Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Kevin Curtis and Steve Breaston were vying for the other open spots on my roster. Any one of them could have been keepers in a deep league and that got me thinking about the state of the wide receiver in the NFL.

The gap between receiver and running back continues to close, and as it does more and more receivers emerge as players who will assassinate for you.

It’s still early — training camp hasn’t even started yet — but there are several wide receivers with situations worth monitoring this summer. Besides the wide receivers I’ve already discussed, I’ve got five more to talk about today. Expect more sleepers and busts from the Ninjas as we move closer to the season.

Torry Holt, Jaguars

The unquestioned No. 1 in Jacksonville, Holt is an interesting pick. I will agree that he’s lost a step, but how much of his failure last year could be pinned on the Rams’ awfulness? We’ll find out this year.

Josh Reed, Bills

He’s not going to win your league for you, but he might just win a couple games. If QB Trent Edwards can display any kind of accuracy, Terrell Owens will draw double coverage and Lee Evans, another fantasy star, will also draw significant defensive attention. Marshawn Lynch, when he returns from suspension, will force teams to respect the ground game. As the No. 3 receiver, Reed should benefit.

Isaac Bruce, 49ers

Rookie Michael Crabtree, a legitimate big-play threat, on the other side of the field could upgrade Bruce. And the aging veteran had a respectable 835 yards with 7 TDs last year.

Kevin Curtis, Eagles

Rookie Jeremy Maclin and second-year pro DeSean Jackson get all the love, but don’t forget about Curtis. he’s averaged more than 13 yards per catch over his career, and in his first full season in Philly racked up 1,110 yards on 77 catches with six scores. Before that he romped as the St. Louis Rams No. 3 receiver.

Ted Ginn Jr./Greg Camarillo/Davone Bess, Dolphins

Bonus: Three players for the price of one! One of these guys is going to break out for 1,200 yards this year. Ginn has the college pedigree, the speed and the best opportunity.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments, or go to our forums and start a conversation.

Related posts

• 5 Super-early 2009 fantasy football sleepers [FFB] (5)
• QB rankings: Settle, don’t reach for a QB (7)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Three sleepers you don’t want to sleep on [FFB] (4)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)

I wrote and re-wrote this post twice and neither time was particularly happy.

About halfway through the second time, I realized the issue — it was something I didn’t even want to read. My points were buried under countless words of no value, rambling on about my fantasy team. You don’t care about my fantasy team, you want to make your team better, or draft a great team. Period.

So, this is the lite (‘g’ and ‘h’ removed for even more liteness!) version of that post I promised last week regarding my fantasy keepers.

One thing I realized while scouring opposing lists to pick my keepers was how ridiculously deep the middling running backs are. You still have a couple absolute studs, and there are a couple duds, but there are gobs and gobs of Leon Washingtons and Correll Buckhalters out there.

You could even argue that the list starts inside the top 10. Virtually anyone who is sharing time is susceptible to vultured TDs or capable of vulturing TDs from another runner in this new era of the NFL.

In my 10-keeper dynasty league, I held Washington only because my two other backs have Injury-Prone tattooed across their shoulders like a name on a jersey.

Washington’s not great — I don’t expect him to finish as my No. 3 RB — and I probably would have been able to get him in the draft, but the security blanket felt necessary. He’ll get a handful of catches and carries if I need to play him.

So who are some of the players in this mountain of middling RBs I’m talking about? Let’s take a look:

For now, I’m going to skip past the lower-upper tier guys (I think I just disoriented myself) like Larry Johnson, Reggie Bush and Jonathan Stewart, (that’s better). Let’s focus on some of the less saucy — or more saucy if you’re one of those sleeper picker-uppers — picks.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers

Actually, this listing could include Mewelde Moore, who did excellent in spots for the Steelers last year. But Mendenhall, a promising goal-line/Willie-Parker-change-of-pace back who got hurt in his rookie year, should be on everyone’s list of intriguing RB picks.

Fred Taylor, RB, Patriots

I realize that New England is stacked with backs in the realm of middling (Maroney, Green-Ellis, Morris, Faulk, in that order), but maybe, just maybe, Taylor is the only really good back out of the bunch. You won’t have to pay much for — or waste a high pick on — him to find out either.

Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars (R)

It’s unfortunate for Maurice Jones-Drew owners — or is it? — but I see Jennings stealing carries. Jones-Drew was most effective for the Jaguars when Fred Taylor was equally effective. The Jaguars went searching for Taylor’s replacement, and found him in Jennings, one of the more underrated players in this year’s NFL Draft.

Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals

Make no mistake, rookie Chris Wells is going to swipe Hightower’s spot on the depth chart, but the second-year back isn’t going to disappear either. RBBC, everybody’s doing it. It got Arizona to the Super Bowl last year, and that was with an aging Edgerrin James.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks

Just like anybody on this list, you don’t want to be stuck with Julius Jones as your No. 1, but his situation — along with cohort T.J. Duckett’s (Maurice Morris is gone to Detroit) — could stand to improve. Jones had almost 700 yards rushing last year, including 127-yard and 140-yard games before Matt Hasselbeck went AWOL. If Hasselbeck is back and T.J. Houshmandzadeh finally gives the former Super Bowl QB his first legitimate No. 1 threat since ever, the ripple affect would benefit every Seattle player. Some of you are going to shy away from Jones after his horrible finish — he missed two of the Seahawks last four games and only had six carries in the two he played — but I’d run him out there as my No. 2 if he was running out there in a RBBC of my own, with a stud No. 1 and two top-flight WRs.

This is by no means a comprehensive or final list of middle-of-the-road running backs, just an appetite tease for the upcoming deluge of fantasy football information we’ll be unloading in the coming months here at Chinstrap Ninjas. Think rankings, sleepers, busts, analysis, everything you could possible expect from jzak, myself and our rag-tag band of fantasy Ninjas.

Part two of this series, the one about the wide receivers, will be ready in the next day or two, so check back soon.

Time for you to tell us what you think. Is it a good call on Jennings? Have I lost it with the Jones prediction? Let us know in the comments or go start a conversation in our forums.

Related posts

• QB rankings: Settle, don’t reach for a QB (7)
• Fantasy Football: RB rankings: Nos. 21-50 (5)
• 5 Super-early 2009 fantasy football sleepers [FFB] (5)
• It’s early, so every WR is a sleeper [FFF] (0)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)