And no, that doesn’t mean you should run around with your neighbor’s wife.

Have you ever watched Tiger Woods play golf? Studied his swing, his follow-through, his reaction to a shot?

There is a lot to be learned from his demeanor … lessons that are easily transferable to drafting a fantasy sports team.

First, let’s get something out the way. Tiger Woods doesn’t win tournament after tournament because he hits every shot perfectly. In fact, Tiger can slice the ball with the best of them from time to time.

What makes Tiger Woods different, however, is that he is extremely resilient. No single bad shot leads to another. It’s almost as if he’s expecting to sporadically misjudge a putt or put too much backspin on a chip shot.

When a mistake does happen, he isn’t phased one iota. He picks himself up and continues onward with just as much gusto as before.

Now, imagine drafting a fantasy baseball team with the same sort of determination and resiliency. That no matter what curve ball is thrown your way, no matter how bad a draft pick feels, you immediately bounce back up and prepare for your next pick.

It can be done, with the following steps pulled directly from the golfing prowess of Tiger Woods.

1. Expect to make mistakes. I have played fantasy sports of differing types for 14 years, and I have yet to meet an owner who felt that he/she totally nailed one of their respective drafts. Everyone reaches on a pick at some point. Everyone overpays for a player in a fantasy auction or mismanages their bankroll.

The problem is that when most of us commit a mistake, even a small one, it zaps our confidence and starts a snowball effect of more bad choices as we attempt to overcompensate.

Entering a draft expecting to make a mistake or two allows you to roll with the punches a little more freely. Leave your ego at the door.

2. No one bad draft pick will ruin your season. Mad at yourself for reaching for Chase Utley with the first overall pick instead of choosing popular picks like Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez? Don’t sweat it.

Even if the player you selected bombs horribly,  you still have a slew of other players and other positions to help buoy your team’s chances. Imagine how few golf tournaments Tiger Woods would ever complete if he gave up after shanking a shot into a sand trap.

Just like a weekend-long golf tournament, your fantasy draft is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash.

3. Do your homework. Much like Tiger Woods studies every hill, slope, nook and cranny of every golf course he plays on, you should know your fantasy baseball player pool inside and out, as well.

Spend time at sites such as www.chinstrapninjas.com learning a variety of draft strategies, sleeper candidates and bounce-back techniques so that when faced with a blown draft pick, you have the knowledge to calmly correct it.

One vital tool involves keeping a close eye on live player feeds at sites such as www.rotoworld.com so you are on top of player injuries, lineup changes, etc.

3. Practice makes almost perfect. Tiger Woods has hit more golf balls in his lifetime than the entire population of most small countries. There’s no secret in the fact that the more comfortable you are in doing something, the easier it is to bounce back from a mistake.

For example, take someone who has driven a car for decades and watch how they react when a wayward raccoon waddles out into the middle of the road. Now, put a first-time driver behind the wheel in the same situation. Which car would you rather be riding in?

Much like a serious golfer becomes familiar with local driving ranges, so should serious fantasy sports managers become familiar with available media, cheat sheets and especially mock drafts. Just as we discussed in pointer No. 3 about doing your homework, you can learn so much more by getting active in live mock drafts.

There, you’ll get a better feel for the intense time-sensitive, adrenaline-pumping selections and decisions that must be made. The more you mock draft, the better you’ll fare in the real thing.

What are your suggestions for a successful fantasy drafting experience? We’d love to hear them in the comments below.

Related posts

• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Falling off the fantasy magazine wagon [FFB] (4)
• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Week 1 discovery: Stealthy assassins (1)
• Three sleepers you don’t want to sleep on [FFB] (4)

While many saner fantasy “experts” would urge patience and caution before jumping into the trading market, I’m recommending that all owners to channel their ninja senses and go for the trade-button jugular.

This is mainly because of what is lining up to be a major value wave among the ranks of fantasy elite after the first two weeks of action.

Below are players who should figure heavily into trade discussions sooner rather than later.

1. Matt Forte. A horrific start for the Bears second-year player has many whispering about a sophomore slump. What many may overlook is that Forte started the season against two very solid run defenses and has weathered a period of transition in the passing game as Jay Cutler and company work to define their roles. Forte will burst back into the fantasy scene this week against a Seattle defense that has been shredded on the ground (most recently by Frank Gore). If you’ve been slow to trading in the past, this is the one opportunity you don’t want to drag your feet on. Many may be slow to deal him so early in the season, but then again, people who drafted Forte are likely facing an 0-3 start to the season — plenty of reason to panic.

2. Steve Slaton. The Texans have been on an offensive roller coaster ride so far this season, but Slaton has been the one constant — constantly stale. Two weeks, two excessively poor performances. Slaton is a harder case to judge (than Forte), in my opinion. He faced one of the most under-rated defenses in football in the Jets in week one, and ran against a stingy Titans defense last week … one that was much more susceptible to the pass than the run. His three fumbles are worrisome, as are comments from coach Kubiak that the Texans should have considered Cedric Benson this offseason. Regardless, Slaton is too talented not to turn it around at least somewhat, and has a slate of games now schedule-wise that he should be able to exploit (Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, Bengals). He’s too bargain-basement not to throw some offers out for at this point, I just worry that he sees more struggles this season that Matt Forte will.

3. Clinton Portis. I said before that these are players who should be involved in trade discussions, and Portis is an interesting case. Everyone considers the name Portis to be synonymous with consistency from a fantasy standpoint, and for years that was the case. He did tank it as the season progressed last year and has been mediocre at best in 2009. His stats against the Rams last week was disheartening, but he still should rebound mightily against the Lions this week. After that, however, I would recommend floating his name around your league to see what interest is out there. If Portis does light things up in Week three, he could be a solid bartering piece for you to land a younger, long-term option for the rest of the long haul.

4. Aaron Rodgers. It pains me to say this in public, but I have severe concerns for Rodgers after watching my beloved Packers after two weeks of action. The O-line and the overall pass blocking is atrocious. He spent more time in the grass last week than my push mower does in a month. If this keeps up, the biggest question about Rodgers won’t be how many TDs he chucks or yards he passes for, but how long until he is hampered by a major injury. This week, the Packers, and Rodgers in particular, should fare pretty well against the Rams. However, after that, the team hits a tough part of the scheduling starting with a Week four Monday night game against the Vikings. I would strongly consider dealing Rodgers after this week for a under-rated fantasy QB such as Matt Ryan.

5. Michael Turner. Drafted in the top three of most fantasy leagues, Turner has put up pedestrian numbers the first two weeks of the season. Considering his campaign last year and the slow start to 2009, he should be a buy-low candidate, right? Not so fast. First, he’s basically a non-factor in the Falcons passing game, limiting his value in PPR leagues. Secondly, his big saving grace last year were the 17 rushing touchdowns. This year, the addition of Tony Gonzalez along with a more prolific passing attack in general will logically eat away at Turner’s scoring opportunities. Will he still have big games? Sure! Will be he one of the top three scoring running backs in fantasyland? I’m not so sure.

6. Pierre Thomas. Pierre was primed for big numbers until bitten in the preseason by the injury bug. He sat on the sidelines and watched Mike Bell garner all the stats and attention that Thomas was due. In a weird twist of fate, Bell is now the one injured and Thomas is on the verge of headlining the rushing game. A good time to buy Pierre and hope that he starts fast out of the gates to keep Bell at bay.

7. Anthony Gonzalez. As most anyone who watches football knows by this point, Gonzalez’s promising 2009 season was sidetracked by a sprained PCL. He’ll be out another month or so. However, when he does come back, Gonzalez has the makings of a solid sleeper receiver in an offense geared towards the pass. If you are in a dynasty league, you should definitely be making some offers for AGonzo. However, even in redraft leagues for the right price, the young Colts receiver would be a good player to stash away for a rainy day when your team is making a push for a playoff spot.

8. Joe Flacco. After two weeks of play, which QB has 500 yards passing and five touchdowns? No one would have guessed that Flacco would be in this category. There is a reason for that — the Ravens have always been a run-first, pass-second offense. Flacco adds a new dimension to the offense, but the Ravens have several able-bodied running backs in Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain and a lackluster group of receivers. Flacco’s numbers will slip in the near future, and now may be a good time to deal him for a Matt Ryan or even a Matt Schaub, if you can.

9. Tim Hightower. The Cardinals running back has been a statistical fireworks display in PPR leagues thanks to a ton of receiving yards and opportunities in the offense. However, Arizona will be a different team when Anquan Boldin is on the field and fully healthy, limiting Hightower’s numbers in the passing game. Also, the Cardinals will continue to inject more and more of rookie Beanie Wells into the offensive scheme. Depending on which players you can get for Hightower, he may be a guy worth dangling in trade talks.

10. Knowshon Moreno. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later for the most talented running back on the Broncos roster. Moreno, a rookie, was given 17 carries and capitalized for 75 yards along with two catches for 22 additional yards through the air. This may have gone unnoticed in mostly redraft leagues due to lack of touchdowns … something that will change as Moreno has more and more opportunities to flash his talent on the field.

Want more sound fantasy advice? Check out ninja ep’s Week 2 recap, a box-by-box review of each Week 2 game with individualized fantasy analysis, charts and analysis on points allowed by position after Week 2 and a detailed discussion on the NFL’s most targeted players after two weeks of play.

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• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)

So, out of respect for your time (and because I don’t feel all that well at the moment), I’ll cut straight to the chase this week.

The following are my Week Two Waiver Wonders (a.k.a. guys you may want to grab now before lockdown so you don’t have to fight with other league owners for these guys Tuesday).

1. Like a small child, I plan on repeating this name over and over and over until fantasy owners get so sick of it, they pick up Earl Bennett. They’ll be thanking me as the season goes on – especially in PPR leagues. Bennett will continue to be highly targeted this week against the Steelers, and without Troy Polamalu on the field (and considering how well Justin Gage and Kenny Britt faired last week against Pittsburgh), I expect Bennett to turn some heads. He’s still only owned in 34 percent of all Yahoo leagues.
2. You would expect that Chester Taylor would be owned in more than 34 percent of Yahoo leagues, especially considering everyone’s obsession with handcuffing and some fears (which I have) that Adrian Peterson won’t make it through the season unscathed. Sunday, against the Lions, Taylor will get plenty of action in garbage time and will make the most of it.
3. One of the most talented players in the NFL, Chris Henry continually opens mouth and inserts foot … getting in his own way with legal issues and off-field theatrics. Last week, the highly touted sleeper finished with just one catch for 18 yards, and suddenly everyone dives off the bandwagon. Give him some time. This week, the Packers defense will be tough, but the Bengals should find themselves in situations of airing out the game to keep up with the Green Bay offense. Henry (owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues) will see his stock rise.
4. As a Reggie Wayne fan, I’d love to live in some fantasy world where Wayne continunes to get a zillion targets per game with Anthony Gonzalez sidelined. However, defense will start clamping down on Wayne and Dallas Clark and Peyton Manning will need to lean on Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. It remains to be seen how they will be utilized in the offense, but it wouldn’t hurt to stockpile both guys (if you have the room) until their roles are more defined. Garcon is owned in just three percent of Yahoo leagues, Collie in one percent.
5. Another name I plan on repeating until I brainwash you all is Mark Sanchez. The QB mojo and bravado I talked about here was on display last week against the Texans. I predict Sanchez will be one of those players that will deal with bad matchups and tricky defense with a calm collectedness that allows him to excel both in real life and as a backup QB option in fantasy. He’s owned in just 34 percent of Yahoo leagues, and I wonder what that number would fall to if you took out dynasty leagues from the stats.
6. Those expecting Darren McFadden to become a truly featured back and sleeper for the season were rudely interrupted by some guy named Michael Bush. Bush has been a sleeper candidate in the past, but it looks like the Raiders are finally committing to get him the ball, especially in third down and goal line situations. Bush is owned in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues, but expect that to change very soon after the Raiders play against the Chiefs this weekend.
7. Speaking of situations where backs see their carries cut into, I fully expect Jamaal Charles to become a bigger part of the Chiefs offensive plan moving forward. That theory will be tested Sunday as the Chiefs play the Raiders’ suspect run defense. Johnson will still get his carries, but Charles is much more a threat in the passing game and offers dynamics that the aging Johnson doesn’t anymore.

Related posts

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• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)
• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)

Well, I am a trade-aholic. I get a rush every time a trade is accepted by both parties. I’ve completed all kinds of trades in the past, with mixed results. I have learned a lot of life lessons from the world of trading in fantasy sports, and since the season is finally here — and everyone will be looking for a competitive edge, I felt it was a good time to share some pointers.

Trade Rule #1: Always look to improve your team. Seems simple enough, but then again, it can be really easy to forget if someone dangles one of your favorite players in front of you. If you feel that your team needs a boost at running back, than don’t reach on a trade to improve a different position. Don’t simply pull the trigger on a deal because you’re bored or because your favorite player is involved — your team’s final score each week is the only thing that really matters.

Trade Rule #2: Know your other league owners. This is much easier if you are in a league with people you know outside of fantasy sports or if you have a live draft. You know the type — the Buffalo Bills fan who wears his new Terrell Owens jersey to the draft. Taking note of this could be a crucial move on your part — because there is a good chance the same guy will overpay for Owens in a trade at some point during the season. I live in central PA, and never mind getting a few Steelers or Eagles on my respective teams, because there are at least one or two diehard Pittsburgh or Philadelphia fans in each of my leagues.

It also pays to know what other teams in your league lack. For example, in one league, I drafted Jason Witten and was excited to be set at the tight end position. However, after the draft, I noticed that no one had drafted John Carlson. Knowing he was in store for a solid season, I picked him up. After that, my first line of business was to find the other teams in the league who were really hurting at tight end, and to plan some offers with Witten (since he has the bigger perceived value) that would help me improve at other skills positions. In another league, I was forced to do an autopick draft. I found a slew of receivers with upside on my team, but you only need so much depth. Starters are the only ones who count in actual game time. I started shopping receivers.

Trade Rule #3: Water’s wet, the sky’s blue and studs typically produce. Did you notice which players struggled in week one? Steve Slaton, Michael Turner, Matt Forte and others were extremely disappointing and many fantasy football owners are quick to panic. It happens every year — certain guys are slow out of the gate, and their respective fantasy owners break out in a cold sweat. Suddenly that first, second or third-round pick doesn’t seem as rock-solid as before. This isn’t something that will happen overnight, but as we get into week two, three and four, you may find one or two owners in your league willing to pull the trigger on one of their draft studs who is slacking at the on the field.

On the flip side, if you are the guy who owns Slaton, Turner, Forte or other week one underachievers, it is important to remember the mantra that studs will typically produce (eventually). You wouldn’t go out and spend $30,000 on a new car, only to sell it a week or two later for $20,000 or less just because the engine light stayed on an extra couple seconds when you started the car last. Slaton, Turner, Forte and company represent stock that has taken a nosedive, but should bounce back in a reasonably short amount of time. You don’t want to give away stock when it is lowest in value. The goal is to get top dollar for your investment. Selling low doesn’t allow you to do that.

Trade Rule #4: The other guy is looking to improve his team, too. It may be hard to avoid throwing out some one-sided trades to league mates, but remember that the other guy is trying to improve, too. Throw too many one-sided deals at the other owners in your league, and they may soon look at you as the trade dude who’s calling wolf. They may never look at one of your trade proposals seriously, regardless of what you are offering. I know this rule well, because I used to be this guy — the one who tried to wear down league owners with a barrage of trades that may not have been totally equal on both sides. Ask yourself the following before offering a deal: “If I was the other owner, would I really accept this deal?”

Trade Rule #5: Time is on your side. If someone in your league offered you a deal and you are uncertain as to what to do, perhaps the best rule of thumb is to not rush the decision. Sleep on it. Take some time to look at stats and get feedback from other trusted fantasy owners. Yes, an owner may be particularly anxious to make a deal and may move on to another owner if you don’t pull the trigger quickly, but then again, if you are that uncertain about the trade, than it may be for the best if things don’t work out. The only timeline that you need to remember is your league’s trade deadline.

Trade Rule #6: No player is untradeable. Luckily, in fantasy sports, we don’t need to deal with egocentric backlashes a la Jay Cutler. If someone offers you a deal for one of your studs, it may be in your best interest to at least consider the deal and look at counter offers. Yes, having Adrian Peterson is great, but if someone offers you a package of really nice players in return — especially ones that plug glaring holes in your starting lineup, than it may be hard to resist. Typically, the teams with one or two super-studs and a supporting cast of lesser players doesn’t stay as competitive season-long as a team loaded with balanced talent across the board. Yes, Peterson will get you X-number of touchdowns, X-number of yards and a boatload of overall fantasy points, but improving yourself at a number of other positions may be more beneficial to the big picture of your fantasy team.

Trade Rule #7: It is OK to counter an offer. In fact, it is critical in many cases for both sides to reach a true agreement if both sides know exactly what is needed to complete a deal. I know many people who feel that if someone else “low-balls” them on a trade offer, the best course of reaction is to ignore it and never communicate in return — or to offer back a really ridiculous offer. However, it is obvious that the other owner has an interest in certain guys on your roster. Why not offer something realistic back — targeting the people on his roster that you would really like? It can’t hurt, and it may actually help lead to a compromise that nets you some really solid talent.

Trade Rule #8: Watch the injury reports and transaction lists. Being one step ahead of your league mates is always a good practice. If you notice that a certain player is injured, and feel that the injury may not be a season-threatening or overall stat-threatening (like a leg injury on your primary running back), than it may not hurt to throw out an offer for an injured player — especially if you can snag that player for a couple of your bench warmers.

A different example includes position battle injuries. For example, perhaps you see that Kurt Warner, current Cardinals starting quarterback, is struggling majorly and may be fighting an injury. Throwing out a deal for Matt Leinart, who could inherit a QB spot on one of the most potent passing teams in the league, may not be a bad thing.

Another thing to watch is the weekly schedule. If you see that a certain player has a number of really easy matchups on the horizon, and you can get him cheap enough, it may be worth a shot. One example at the moment is Clinton Portis, who faces the Rams and Lions in weeks two and three, respectively.

Trade Rule #9: Evaluate other trades. Don’t just look at other trades in your league, but go places where people announce their trades and try to get evaluations either before or after the trade. What things seemed to work? Look for trends that may help you in your own league. We will be evaluating a number of trades throughout the season here on our main board at chinstrapninjas.com — so be sure to keep checking back. Another resource is the fantasyfootballcafe, which has a thread devoted to trade analysis. Watch not only what trades are offered and which ones seem to work for both sides, but also what others say about the trade.

Trade Rule #10: Get trusted feedback on a trade before pulling the trigger. Again, time is on your side, so take the time to do it right. Identify several people who you respect in fantasy football and ask their advice on certain trades before you complete the deal. Sometimes, it is easy to be blinded by a player bias, and fall into a trap where you are losing more talent in a deal than you’re gaining. The more people you get feedback from, the better the chances that you’ll get a good feel of whether or not a certain trade is in your best interest. We here at chinstrap ninjas, are offering our services to evaluate your trades as they come up. Feel free to e-mail myself or ep with any questions, and we’ll share our feedback with the rest of our readers as a way for us all to grow as a community and become better traders.

What are your trade suggestions? Disagree with one of my ten trade rules? Have some to add? Some stories to share? Want some feedback on your trade negotiations? Let us know!

Related posts

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• Don’t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips (1)
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• AFC-South: Not just Peyton’s place anymore (1)

Which got me thinking some very important thoughts.

Such as … where do the fruit flies come from? There wasn’t a single fruit fly in the house one moment, and suddenly a wave of insects was treating my melon rind as if the fruit flies were the paparazzi and the rind was an incoherent Brittany Spears.

And … where do the fruit flies go when the fruit is removed? How quickly do they find the next over-ripened banana or half-eaten pear? Is there any insect or animal more obsessive or overzealous as the fruit fly?

And then it dawned on me … the one truth I had been searching for as I prepared to write my Week 1 recap:

Fantasy football owners are the fruit flies of the sports world.

Want proof?

Joe Flacco threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns in the Ravens’ season-opener last week against Kansas City. Suddenly, like that cantaloupe sitting on my kitchen counter, Flacco was flooded with attention from fantasy owners in leagues of all shapes and sizes. He was picked up in favor of many slow-starting QB options. In one of my leagues, actually, someone dropped Ben Roethlisberger for Flacco. This after Roethlisberger proved his own worth against an otherwise stingy Titans defense last Thursday. Flacco does deserve some attention, but let’s be reasonable here. He still is throwing to a mediocre receiving cast and his huge stats came against the Chiefs’ defense.

Another young QB that many are trying to snag after week one is Mark Sanchez. Those who were ahead of the curve (like those who read my sleeper QB column a few weeks ago) were able to avoid the Black Friday-esque fight to get Sanchez off the waiver wire. As I mentioned in the column, Sanchez has the “it” factor that will help him excel at the NFL level. Even though his receivers are fairly unknown, they are really reliable, if non-flashy, options.

Cadillac Williams is also a now-hot commodity in fantasy circles after a 97-yard, one-TD performance against Dallas. While he’s the flavor of the week in the Bucs’ backfield, remember that Tampa has a stable of able backs (Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward to name a few) and talk is that the Buccaneers will keep Cadillac around 15 or less carries a game. He’s worth a roster bench spot if you have room, just don’t expect consistent fantasy production from him.

Don’t be just another fruit fly

How are you handling your waivers and team management after week one? Are you going with the masses and trying to snag every player who scored a few fantasy points in hopes that it is the start of a trend? Or, are you going against the grain?

While the rest of the fruit flies buzz to the waiver wire for the flavor of the week pickup, why not throw a few offers at league owners who are panicking after just one week? There are plenty of players who were horrific in week one that you may be able to fish away from someone else in your league. Some players to consider:

1. Andre Johnson. OK, landing him may take a small act of God, but you may be surprised how many people are looking at the Texans right now and wondering if the sky is falling in Houston. Many forget that the Jets defense was really solid at the end of last season, and made some major strides this offseason to be even more dominant. On the flip side, the Texans next face a Titans defense that allowed the Steelers to light it up through the air. Expect Johnson to bounce back to reality sooner rather than later … and this may be the lowest value he’ll be the rest of the way.
2. Chris Johnson. Johnson was mediocre at best last Thursday against the Steelers. Plus, I’m not totally sold that Johnson will be a fantasy beast again in 2009. However, his Thursday stats were against the best defense in football, and next he’s playing against a Houston team that allowed the Jets to run amok in week one. Here’s another Johnson who’s value will increase significantly this weekend.
3. Clinton Portis. See Chris Johnson. A mediocre week one against an incredibly tough defense (as predicted here) followed this Sunday by a cakewalk matchup (against St. Louis). Portis has the added bonus of rushing against the Detroit Lions in week three. Again, like with CJ, I’m not sold on Portis this year for the long haul, but he’s a player who could be the most productive back over the next two weeks of play and will be a hot commodity when dangled before week four to the fruit flies in your respective legues.
4. Matt Schaub. Hard to stick up for a guy who killed my chances for a “W” in many leagues last week, but as long as Schaub can stay upright, he’ll be a viable fantasy option. The Titans defense allowed Roethlisberger to look like Dan Marino, and Schaub may use the same matchup to bounce back into the limelight.
5. Matt Forte. The Bears offense looks like a mess at the moment. Cutler wasn’t exactly a superstar last week against the Packers. However, Forte and company will bounce back. Possibly not this week, against the Steelers run defense, but after week 2, Forte’s value may be the lowest you’ll see it moving forward.
6. Michael Turner. A guy I was afraid of going into the season due to his exceptionally high workload last year, Turner still has a lot more to offer than his 65-yard, zero-TD performance last week.
7. Steve Smith. Three catches and 21 yards is nothing to write home about, but the Eagles defense had Jake Delhomme’s number from the start. Some QB controversy is brewing in Carolina, but no matter who is throwing the ball, Smith’s stats will even out sooner rather than later.
8. Roddy White. Another WR with many expectations but many disappointments in week one, White is too talented, his QB too talented and his supporting cast too talented for the numbers to continue being in the doghouse.

What are your week one viewpoints? What does it mean for the long haul? We’d love to hear your comments.

Related posts

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• Ninja sense: Ten things you’ll see happen in Week 2 (1)
• NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (2)
• Ninja sense: Ten things that you’ll see happen in Week 1 (2)
• Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (1)

I found it in a pile of receipts and paid bills that was leaning ever so slightly against my computer tower in our home office.

It was a coupon for toilet paper. A whole dollar off a pack of Scott bathroom tissue.

I was instantly elated. We didn’t need toilet paper, but I had found a bargain. We, as a human race, can’t pass up a deal, even if it turns out to be a bad one. Give me a nickel off a pack of gum, and I’ll spend the rest of the day doing random fist-pumps and dancing an Irish jig.

Then I saw the coupon’s expiration date, and wanted to cry. The dollar-off-a-pack-of-TP deal ended 8/31/09.

It was as if someone had sucker-punched me in the gut. It was like I had just lost my best friend.

This Tuesday morning, millions of people will experience a similar feeling. That’s the day that free agents in many fantasy football leagues come off waivers for the first time, and a mad rush of people all try to get the next great thing before owner Wally the Waiver-Wire Nerd makes his move.

Waiver priorities will be burned, emotions will run high and local drugstores will run low on Alka-Seltzer and antidepressants.

But you can avoid all that.

Simply pick up the next big thing BEFORE the games kick off Sunday and waivers lock up. Stash them on your bench and watch the other owners in your league wither in jealousy as your sleeper stash-away becomes the Anquan Boldin of 2009.

But who to choose? If you read just one of my stories all season, this is the one you should review. Consider snagging the following players on the cusp of fantasy stardom.

1. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals. No sense beating around the bush. Bernard Scott is my sleeper to end all sleepers. He’s the closest thing you’ll find to a “Steve Slaton” this year. Remember Slaton last year as a rookie? Undrafted in all but the largest of fantasy leagues. Mired just behind an aging and questionable Ahman Green on the Houston depth chart. Had inspiring preseason performances. Replaced Green as starter. Suddenly, he became everyone’s fantasy darling and a savior to many a fantasy owner’s season. I drafted him in most of my leagues to jeers from leaguemates. Advantage me.

Scott follows a similar path this season. He went undrafted in many fantasy leagues. In fact, in Yahoo leagues, he’s owned by just two percent of teams. He’s behind just Cedric Benson on the depth chart. Yes, that Cedric Benson … the one who deserves a start on your fantasy football roster as much as Rosie O’Donnell deserves her picture on a box of Wheaties. Bernard Scott’s only detractor is his size (5-11, 220) … except, remember that Slaton guy (5-9, 201)? He made it work with a much smaller frame.

Some experts rave that Cedric Benson has an opportunity to be a sleeper, sneaky RB start this week against the train wreck of a team in Denver. However, the pet rock from my first grade art class has a better chance to score legitmate fantasy points. Scott will be the one who turns heads, and he’ll be a difference maker as the season progresses — regardless of what happens in Week One.

Grab him now. The expiration window is small.

2. Earl Bennett, WR, Bears. No need to go into super detail on Bennett and why I love him this season. Just check out my popular WR sleeper story and my Week One things to expect. Bennett is owned in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues — up nine percent from when I posted my bold predictions piece yesterday. By Wednesday, I expect him to be owned, easily, in 65 percent or more of all Yahoo leagues. Don’t miss the curve.

3. Mike Bell, RB, Saints. Again, much of my reasoning for grabbing Bell before Sunday’s games is explained here. However, the difference between Bell and the others on my list at the moment is that Bell is a short-term option. Pierre Thomas should be back next week. The Saints don’t play the Detroit defense every week of the season. Lucky for us fantasy ninjas out there, most run-of-the-mill owners have the fantasy equivalent of ADHD. They’ll see Bell’s 100 yards and two TDs early next week and trade you their grandmother’s left kidney for him. If you do snag Bell, make sure you try to capitalize on his statline from Sunday and make a quick move for a player with more long-term upside that may have struggled some in Week One.

4. Deon Butler, WR, Seahawks. By all accounts, Deion Branch will be riding the pine this week. Butler may not be super-big, but he his super-fast, and Hasselbeck and company will utilize Butler to stretch the less-than-scary St. Louis defense. Yes, it is unlikely that Butler will be a super rookie breakout at receiver. The position is historically a slow-burner for rookies. However, Butler will be a serviceable option off your bench as long as there is room to squeeze him in. More on him here.

5. Brent Celek, TE, Eagles. Have I ever mentioned how incredibly ADHD many fantasy owners are? Celek turned many a head in the postseason last year, is the only viable and healthy tight end on a team known for chucking regularly to a tight end, and is only owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues at the moment. Go snag Celek off your waivers before games start Sunday (and before some random butterfly diverts your attention) and reap the benefit of having some quality TE depth on your team. At worse, having a second quality TE will allow you to pry your way into a nice early-season trade, dealing your name-brand Tony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark for an improvement at another position and ride Celek to fantasy stardom. More on Celek’s sleeper status can be found in our NFC-East preview.

6. Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers. Owned in just 13 percent of Yahoo leagues, Hill is finally in a position to succeed as a starter and will fare well in a game that promises to be a shootout against Arizona. Read more on my Week One mancrush for Shaun Hill here.

Who do you suggest as must-add players before week one starts? Want to debate any of the players on this list? We’d love to hear your comments.

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Did you see the Black-Eyed Peas’ poor excuse for lip syncing? Did you see the cheesy countdown clock? It was hard to tell if I was waiting for a football game, or getting ready to watch the ball drop on New Years’ Eve.

I wonder if they run that junk to help people better savor the actual start of the game. You can safely turn up the volume on the TV and sink your teeth into some football.

Preseason football is a similar story. It’s all a tease. It’s all just a placeholder, keeping us at bay long enough to drown in our own drool waiting for the actual season to begin. Tomorrow, the wait is officially over. It’s finally safe to turn up the volume, grab a bowl of popcorn and savor the action.

But before we do this, let’s look one last time at some themes, predictions and suggestions before the real day of opening games is upon us. (Also, don’t miss out on my fantasy recap of the Steelers-Titans game from Thursday night.

Ninja sixth sense: Ten things that will happen the rest of Week 1.

1. See Clinton Portis run. See Clinton Portis get whacked by the Giants defense. I personally love Portis as a fantasy player. Few can match his reliability as a running back at a position known for inconsistency. However, his statistical nosedive late last year paired with talk that Ladell Betts will see an increased role in the running game leaves a series of red flags for Portis in 2009. Facing the Giants’ brick wall of a defense won’t help matters. Things will get better against the Rams and Lions in weeks two and three, respectively, but don’t expect huge stats Sunday. For more on Portis an the rest of the NFC-East, click here.

2. Ray Rice has been gaining steam in many season projections this year, and for good reason. He has been named the official starting tailback on a team that loves to run the ball. He matches up against a Kansas City defense that is a work in progress. While he may lose a few touchdowns to Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain, expect Rice to make up for that with Flacco screens and a welcome-to-the-bigtime Week 1 performance. Here’s expecting him to outscore Portis.

3. Still trying to understand how Earl Bennett is owned in just 30 percent of Yahoo leagues. Against a transitioning defensive scheme in Green Bay in a primetime game that screams shootout potential, Bennett will arrive Sunday night in fantasy football leagues. Get him now before waivers close Sunday morning, or you’ll be blowing your waiver priority and be playing a 1-in-12 chance at snagging him Tuesday morning. For more on Earl Bennett and why he’s my top WR sleeper for 2009, click here.

4. Really struggling at quarterback? Want a ninja-esque play? How about Shaun Hill, who will get enough action against a suspect Cardinals defense while playing catchup Sunday. Josh Morgan will fair well, too, as he makes his case to hold down the WR1 spot in San Fran regardless of what Crabtree does contract-wise.

5. Pierre Thomas won’t play for the Saints this week, vaulting Mike Bell into the limelight against the woeful Lions defense. Bell will be a solid play in most every format Sunday, and he’s only owned in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues. Even if you don’t need him as an RB2 or flex player, grab him before Sunday’s games and dangle him like a carrot to whoever falls prey to the week one injury curse.

6. One wide receiver that will really shine Sunday will be new Seahawk T.J. Houshmanzadeh. Seattle will be chomping at the bit to unveil its new weapon, Matt Hasselbeck is itching to put last season in the rearview mirror and the Seahawks are matching up against the Rams. If you think the stars are aligned for Housh, also consider that Deion Branch is looking less and less likely to play.

7. There are so many rookie receivers this year that could make some noise, that it is easy to forget about PSU grad Deon Butler, also a Seahawk. For all the reasons listed above for Housh (especially the part where Branch will likely sit), I expect Butler to get some sneaky-good stats.

8. Donnie Avery was hamped by injury this preseason and not expected to be available so quickly. However, he will start Sunday against the Seahawks, who aren’t exactly the Steel Curtain. Avery is the best receiving threat on that offense, and will see targets early and often in a game that promises to be a shootout.

 9. If you are starting anyone on the Cleveland Browns, you should reconsider quickly. I’m expecting the Vikings-Browns game to be one of the most lopsided games in recent memory, and not in the Browns’ favor.

10. I’m a huge Texans advocate in fantasy circles this year, including one who expects continued solid play from Steve Slaton. However, I think he may struggle some in week one against the Jets’ vastly improved defense. Slaton was fairly mediocre in preseason play and the Jets matchup will be tough one right out of the gates. I don’t expect him to be horrible in the game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss the 100-yard mark on the ground and manage one TD at best.

What are your predictions for Week 1? We’d love to hear them. Tune in later Saturday for a list of players you should seriously consider adding to your fantasy rosters before waivers close Sunday morning … including one player who I feel will be one of the best sleepers in 2009.

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This year, there is a chance the Colts don’t even finish in the top half of the division. Sure, part of that is because the Colts may have lost a half-step, but it is more a factor of the improvements to both the Titans and Texans.

Anyone needing a division rich in fantasy potential, the AFC-South is the place for you …

Tennessee Titans

1. Totally a gut feeling here – nothing really to back it up with – but I get this feeling that out of last year’s amazing crop of rookie running backs, that Chris Johnson sees the most depreciation this year. I know, it doesn’t make sense. He’s in an offense designed to run with plenty of protection and a defense that allows the Titans to run the ball early and often in time-killing strategy. However, while I don’t usually take stock in preseason action, Johnson was surprisingly stale this summer. He struggled to make it out of the backfield ways too often for my taste. I know that I’m being unreasonably pessimistic for no reason, but you can’t ignore your gut reaction sometimes in fantasy football.
2. I was all over the Justin Gage bandwagon last year, and was sorely disappointed. Perhaps it’s that sour taste in my mouth that keeps me from getting excited about him this year. Meanwhile, rookie Kenny Britt has been rock solid in preseason action and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Britt has a better statistical season than Gage in 2009.
3. Too bad fantasy scoring doesn’t include points for not making mistakes … than there would some value in drafting Kerry Collins onto your roster. He’s a solid real-life QB that has gone through an amazing roller-coaster journey since his Penn State days, but he has no business seeing the light of day on your fantasy roster.
4. Losing Albert Haynesworth will affect the Titans defense, as will a much more difficult schedule in 2009. People are drafting the Titans defense on name recognition, and for that reason, the squad is going much too early in drafts to make many of my fantasy rosters this year.
5. If you read my fantasy kicker strategy, you know that I have very low expectations for most people’s projected 2009 fantasy kicker darling, Steven Gostkowski. When the dust settles in 2009, I feel that Rob Bironas will be the league’s top scoring kicker – at worse, he’ll be in the top three. Not that you should reach in your draft to take him. See why here.

Houston Texans

1. People who know me realize quickly that the Texans are my team 1b to the Green Bay Packers 1a. One reason is because I see Matt Schaub as a true QB value player in fantasy circles. Many question his injury history, but take out a slew of illegal hits, and Schaub would be considered a top 5 fantasy QB. The more I watch him, the more I like. Call it a man-crush, but here’s predicting he stays upright enough this season to break the top five in signal calling (behind Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Manning, in that order).
2. Steve Slaton silenced the critics who felt he was too small to make the cut as a featured NFL running back. What helps him is that the offense is balanced enough that he doesn’t see regular stacked defenses and guys keying off just him. Some are concerned about Chris Brown stealing some goal-line carries, but I fear him as much as a blind newborn kitten.
3. It’s easy to daydream about the super-talent that is Andre Johnson, but don’t overlook Kevin Walter in your respective fantasy league. Walter is fantasy gold in TD-heavy leagues and if Schaub stays healthy all season (as I predict), Walter will only improve as a fantasy factor across the board.
4. Want a sneaky-good play at kicker in 2009? Look no further than Kris Brown, who plays for a team that will score often enough to keep him in the red zone, but not so much that his stats are wasted in PAT attempts and not field goals.
5. Owen Daniels is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy tight ends … he just doesn’t get the respect he deserves. Miss out on Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez in your draft? No problem … fill another starting position with a true talent in the third or fourth round and wait until later in your draft for Daniels. He’ll be a solid TE again this year, breaking the top five at the position.

Indianapolis Colts

1. Peyton Manning has been so good for so long, he’s become the vanilla ice cream of the league’s quarterbacks. Of course, that means that while he’s the benchmark and staple of the NFL’s signal callers, he’s a constant with little extra pizzazz to get excited about. I’m not bashing Manning here. I’ve been a fan his whole career. He has developed great chemisty with Anthony Gonzalez and while Reggie Wayne is no Bruce Wayne, he still is a force to be reckoned with. Manning will be a top-four QB, but unfortunately, people draft him much too high in most drafts for him to be a true value player.
2. Speaking of Anthony Gonzalez, you should be excited if he’s the top receiver on your bench this year. He will see consistent targets and opportunities to excel in the league this year. If I had to pick one Colts player to be a true value player in 2009, I’d choose Gonzalez, hands down.
3. It’s really hard to predict what will happen with the two-headed monster at running back in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. Addai should be able to bounce back this year, but Brown impressed most this summer and stands to see an increased role in the Colts offense right out of the gate. Because of this, I wouldn’t trust Addai for anything more than an RB3 with upside.
4. Adam Vinatieri is one of the most recognizable kicker names in all of football – just don’t think that translates into fantasy points. Injuries have taken their toll on Vinatieri, and he’s a kicker worth avoiding in most scoring formats.
5. Dallas Clark is a tight end worth considering if the price is right – however, he seldom falls too far past the top three tight end options, and offers much in the way of value in most snake-based drafts. I have seen him go fairly cheaply in auction-based leagues. However, it seems that many times, people panic when they see Gates, Gonzo and Witten go off the board, and they overextend to snag Clark. Wait a few rounds and get an Owen Daniels or wait even longer and choose a true sleeper like Brent Celek.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1. If Owen Daniels is the Rodney Dangerfield of tight ends, a case could be made for David Garrard to be the same in the QB category. Most people don’t realize that he was a top-10 QB in many scoring formats last year. Now he’s added an aged yet talented Torry Holt to his arsenal. Garrard isn’t an every-week starter, but continues to be a great value in most drafting formats.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew has become many a fantasy experts pet project in 2009, and for good reason. MJD has the skills both in running and catching out of the backfield to be a reliable fantasy option in 2009. However, it’s hard for me to coronate him as a top-two back (as many have done) without seeing him carry the rock 30 times a game, 16 games a season.
3. Torry Holt has lost a step in overall speed, but he knows how to position himself to make the catch time and time again. He isn’t a guy you want to rely on as a fantasy starter in 2009, but as a bye-week fill-in, depending on the matchup, you could do much worse than Holt.
4. I’ll give you two sugar cookies and a vanilla wafer if you can name the starting tight end for the Jaguars? If you said Mercedes Lewis, you may be wrong. The Jags recently picked up Dolphins dropee Earnest Wilford, and plan to use him … he couldn’t possibly drop as many passes as Lewis did last year, right? Either way, there is no immediate value in drafting a Jaguar kicker in fantasy circles.
5. A rookie to watch closely this year is RB Rashad Jennings. After trimming their roster this summer, the Jags are down to basically MJD and Jennings at the position (Greg Jones is still around, but won’t be a fantasy factor). MJD has yet to shoulder the load for a full season, and I fully expect Jennings to be a part of the offensive plan from week one.

What are your fearless predictions for the AFC-South? Check back for more divisional previews and weekly fantasy projections here at www.chinstrapninjas.com

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The extra firepower will help any fantasy team wise enough to tap into the potential. Team-by-team previews and predictions include:

Green Bay Packers

1. Well before the preseason offensive fireworks display, I was a big advocate of Aaron Rodgers in 2009. The running game is not the center of the offense – the passing game is. Rodgers has the weapons and will be in enough shootouts to finish the season in elite fantasy company: as a top-three QB with Brees and Brady.
2. Ryan Grant is one of those running backs this year that allows fantasy owners to take risks in drafts. Taking stud receivers or a top QB in the first two rounds? Grant provides a nice RB insurance option this year. He started last season slowly, hampered by injuries. By the end of the season, he was a solid RB2, with RB1 performances. He starts this season off injury-free and should be a nice low-profile RB sparkplug.
3. Want a true team sleeper? Look no further than Jermichael Finley. The tight end tore it up all preseason for the Packers, and while the current plan is to use Finley and Donald Lee in a 50-50 split, I fully expect Finley to become one of Rodgers’ go-to red zone targets and be a viable starting TE in most fantasy formats by the end of the season.
4. Some are looking at the Packers’ defensive unit to be a fantasy sleeper this season, but I have my doubts. While the Packers should thrive in the 3-4 scheme that Dom Capers is instituting, it will take time for the squad to adjust to the nuances of the switch. The Packers have a great mix of veteran talent and youth potential, but they are no better than a D/ST plan B and bye-week fill-in depending on matchup.
5. There is no doubt that Greg Jennings has become the primary target in this offense over an aging yet effective Donald Driver and numerous young talents. Jennings is primed for a career season, especially in PPR formats.

Minnesota Vikings

1. Anyone who thinks Brett Favre is going to wither and die as a fantasy option this year is totally out of touch with reality. When healthy last year, Favre led a fairly uninspired and under-performing group of Jets to an impressive 8-3 record. If he’s healthy, and indicators say he is, Favre should thrive in an offense where he doesn’t need to win games by himself. In 2007 with the Packers, Favre learned the value in throwing short passes and allowing the receivers room to work. His INTs dropped and TDs and overall yardage soared. While he won’t replicate his 2007 numbers, he will be a fantasy starter at times this season.
2. As someone totally unnerved by Percy Harvin’s track record for knuckleheadedness, I’ve grown to expect a decent rookie campaign in 2009. The Vikings seem committed to using Harvin in as many ways as possible, and having Favre around will help him both on and off the field. While it may not seem a stretch (considering Michael Crabtree self-distructing his NFL rookie season), Harvin could finish the season as the best rookie WR of this year’s crop.
3. I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t expect Adrian Peterson to last all 16 regular-season games. He’s a hard-core running back that pounds the holes and drags tacklers with him, but that beating will also take its toll. You heard it here first: Peterson will not be the top-scoring fantasy running back in 2009.
4. With that being said, I expect Chester Taylor to be a sneaky RB sleeper this season. He has the skill set to excel as a 16-week starter for most any team, and he’s also in a contract year. He has something to prove, and when Peterson gives him the opportunity, Taylor will be a viable RB1 in most fantasy formats.
5. I have great respect for ep’s viewpoints on matchups, but I totally disagree when it comes to defensive units. I’ve had too much success taking mediocre defenses who play horrific offenses and raked on the matchups and ensuing fantasy points. That being said, I totally expect the Vikings D/ST to be the highest scoring unit in fantasy football through the first third of the season. Matchups against Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis and Baltimore in five of the first six weeks is pure fantasy gold.

Chicago Bears

1. There’s a wide spectrum of viewpoints on the Bears receiving unit this year. Mark my words: Earl Bennett will be the player standing when the dust settles in Bearsland. His connection with Jay Cutler goes back to a successful pairing at Vanderbilt, and it helps that Devin Hester is better suited as a trick, special teams sort of player. Bennett will be targeted early and often in the offense, and will not only lead the Bears in receptions, but will be near the top of the NFC-North in catches behind guys like Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson.
2. Many feel that Matt Forte will experience some sort of sophomore slump in 2009, but it’s hard to drink that Kool-Aid. Jay Cutler will force defenses to play honest, opening holes for Forte and keeping the back upright more often than not. The Bears are a run-first, grind-it-out offense, and that won’t change even with Cutler under center.
3. Jay Cutler highlights one of the biggest offseason trades in recent memory, and his presence will help the Bears offensive skill players. While he seems to be finding chemistry with his receivers and talented TE Greg Olson, it is hard to get excited about Cutler’s fantasy stock until he proves that he wasn’t a product of the Broncos’ situation.
4. Tight end Greg Olsen is a great asset to anyone drafting a fantasy team. With Cutler in town, Olsen is primed to take a leap in the position’s rankings, and allows people to avoid the early TE drafting trap of Witten, Gonzo and Gates.
5. The Bears D/ST is not what it once was. Sure, many of the playmakers, like Brian Urlacher, are still there. However, the unit is aging fast and finds itself in a division that suddenly is much improved offensively. In the past, the Bears were a lock as a top-five fantasy defense year in and year out. This year, I’d much rather take a chance a defense with upside than pay the inflated price that many place on the Bears based on name value alone.

Detroit Lions

1. Not sure why, but the announcement that Matthew Stafford will start week one over Daunte Culpepper surprised me. All preseason, Stafford seemed less polished than rookie QB counterpart Mark Sanchez, and while the Lions will not make the playoffs in 2009, Culpepper still provided them the best chance to get a few W’s on the board coming off the league’s first-ever winless campaign. I keep thinking Stafford will struggle on a team that should be better across the board in 2009.
2. There were several very impressive rookie running backs last season, but it surprises me that Kevin Smith continues to get so little love in fantasy circles. He gets it done both on the ground and through the air, and will be a safety valve for Stafford early and often. He is another RB, like Ryan Grant, who allows non-conventional fantasy drafters in 2009 to go WR-WR or QB-WR in the first two rounds and still save face at RB.
3. Calvin Johnson is a beast, no matter who’s throwing him the ball. He has too much talent to not succeed, regardless of whether Culpepper or Stafford are under center. Last year, Johnson continued to shine even with Dan Orlovski chucking him the ball and defenses keying off him like teens at a Hannah Montana concert.
4. I really liked the Lions’ selection of Brandon Pettigrew in the rookie draft this year, and Pettigrew will be a tight end to watch in fantasy circles – however, not until 2010. He has talent and the Lions are starting to develop weapons in the offense, but Pettigrew will be option three for a rookie QB who continues to under-impress me.
5. Not that I need to tell you, but don’t bother drafting the Lions defense this year. While they will see improvement over last year’s squad, the NFC-North saw a major influx of offensive firepower this offseason, and the Lions will struggle to keep up.

What are your predictions for the NFC-North? Keep checking back all season at chinstrapninjas.com for additional divisional previews, weekly sit-start commentaries, trade discussion, etc.

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