And, for the first time in my fantasy career, I found myself giving advice so unrisky, non-dramatic and un-ninja-like, I felt sick to my stomach.

I still do.

I’ll hate myself for saying this out loud, in e-print, but this is the year that I …

… burn an earlier pick than normal on one of the four elite catchers.

Now, when I say “elite” catcher, let me get specific.

I mean Joe Mauer … he of the wicked .365 batting average. He of the career-high 28 home runs in 2009 (almost double what he jacked in 2007 and 2008 combined … something a little fishy about that?). Mauer is a workaholic who will produce for fantasy owners at such an elite pace (although I do expect a dropoff in home run totals), that having him gives you an instant boost.

Brian McCann is similar. Twenty-one dingers, a .281 batting average and playing for the prolific Braves, McCann will continue to be a beacon of fantasy consistency in 2010.

Victor Martinez had solid stats last year with the Red Sox, and considering the protection he gets in that lineup (Bay or no Bay), Martinez will continue to be a top-notch catcher in fantasy circles.

Matt Wieters may be the most risky of these top-four, but his star is quickly rising. Here’s betting he doubles the nine home runs he produced last season, and continues to work on his batting average. Playing for the Orioles doesn’t give him a lot of protection, but he is still an exciting player that can play at an elite level sooner rather than later.

After those four players, the dropoff is so severe, in my humble opinion, that I’m willing to burn a third-round pick on Mauer or Martinez or perhaps even McCann. I’d be willing to reach into the fifth or possibly even fourth round for Wieters.

That goes against all conventional teaching from the fantasy baseball days of yore … when you let Joe Draftaholic take an elite catcher early in the draft while you are padding other key positional stats … and then snag the next up-and-coming catcher in later rounds and not losing much in the way of statistical dropoff.

But there is such disparity in the catcher ranks this year … more than ever in my opinion, that I think you put yourself in a better position with one of the four guys mentioned above. For example, let’s say you snag a Jason Bay or Raul Ibanez in the third round and wait on catching. Let’s hypothetically say you land Mike Napoli or Geovanny Soto in the later rounds. Your combo of Bay-Soto or Bay Napoli will produce less, in my opinion, than if you take a Maurer in the early third round and then turn around two rounds later and snag an Adam Dunn-esque player. You get just as many (if not much more in the home run department) and Mauer’s batting average helps offset Dunn’s lack of plate discipline.

Sure there are many exceptions to the rule, and I’m not advocating that everyone go on a mad drafting spree for the four top catchers in 2010. There are a few consolation prizes at the position that I could live with. Including:

Kurt Suzuki is one of just a handful of catchers who’s stats are actually going in the right direction. Home runs are climbing, stolen bases quadrupled in 2009 (eight to two in 2008) and batting average is hovering around a respectable .274. He’s young and has not met his ceiling yet.

Miguel Montero made the best of increased playing time when Chris Snyder went down with injury last season for the D-backs. He hit a career-high 16 dingers and posted a sweet .294 at the plate. He also has a much higher ceiling than many at the position, especially since he has yet to start an entire season in the bigs.

There are a few sleeper candidates who could break out this season. John Baker has some detractors but also could open things up in 2010. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has yet to produce a full season without injury and has tons of potential … although he has seen some stat dropoffs that scare me. Kelly Shoppach can’t hit righties and has a few other deficiencies, but has some untapped power potential that could be drool-inducing. Buster Posey is a rookie with boatloads of potential, but just what will his role be in 2010, especially since Bengie Molina is still officially in town?

Again, someone should slap me for being so un-ninja with this post. For suggesting that you should actually go with the crowd and pay a somewhat higher price for one of the catching elite. However, I just can’t advocate anyone else at this position. Hopefully our ninja viewers here can set me straight.

What is your opinion on the catching class of 2010?

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And considering that most fantasy trades take time to develop, now is the time to really assess your team and determine if you need to make some moves.

Notice that your team is weak at a certain position? Lacking depth in key areas? Think you are out of contention in your dynasty league and looking to rebuild for 2010? Now is the time for action.

Obviously the mantra for most successful trading is to sell high and buy low.

Here are some position-by-position players to consider trading away or dealing for before the coming trade deadline.

Quarterbacks

Trade for:

Kurt Warner, ARI. Coming off one of the worst games of his career against the Panthers last week (27-for-46 for 242 yards and five interceptions), Warner’s stock is very low at the moment. He’s 16th in scoring among all fantasy QBs. However, Warner has a really easy schedule coming up … one almost too easy for quarterbacks to have significant value. However, the Cardinals offense is centered around the pass. With playmakers in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to throw to, Warner’s numbers can’t continue to be this pedestrian. Warner’s best statistical outputs came against the three easiest teams during the first eight weeks: Jacksonville, Houston and Seattle. Now after a game in Week 9 where the Cardinals match up with an up and down Chicago defense, Arizona then plays Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, Minnesota (yes, the Vikings are weak in passing defense), San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis. Warner should be targetted the hardest in all redraft leagues. It is hard to imagine him having much value beyond this season, however. If you do land Warner, make sure to pick up Matt Leinart off waivers … if Warner does somehow struggle against cupcake teams like he did against Carolina, Leinart could see more action in an offense that is loaded with talent.

Alex Smith, SF. Warner too expensive for your wallet? Try Smith for a cheap source of stats the rest of the way. Smith has fared well since taking over the reins from Shaun Hill two weeks ago, and has a sexy-good slate of opposing defenses down the stretch. The Niners finish with Tennessee, Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona, Philadelphia and Detroit. San Francisco’s young receiving corps is improving with time, especially rookie Michael Crabtree, who had six catches for 81 yards against the Colts.

Trade away:

Matt Schaub, HOU. It may seem crazy to deal away a player that has probably carried your team this season, and who is currently the second-highest fantasy scoring QB in the NFL at the moment. However, it is hard to imagine him keeping up his torrid pace. He lost one of his most trusted receiving options (tight end Owen Daniels is out for the season), and the Texans still have their bye on the horizon (week 10). Plus, Houston has some really questionable matchups in the near future, including two against the Colts in the next four weeks and Miami in what will be the championship game of many fantasy leagues. Questions about Steve Slaton’s availability moving forward thanks to issues with fumbles means that Schaub may see yet another hit in his receiving options.

Brett Favre, MIN. He is tied with Matt Schaub for the lead in QB touchdown throws this year. He is coming off a 33-point performance (in leagues where he earned six points per TD and one point per 25 yards passing) in his revenge match against the Green Bay Packers. After this week’s bye, however, the Vikings play a series of games against teams who are mediocre at best. Favre won’t be needed to carry the team … it will be Adrian Peterson’s show for the forseeable future. Plus, Favre followed this same pattern last season — playing great the first half of the season until injuries took their toll and slowed him the rest of the way. Not saying he’ll break down again this year — he does have a much better supporting cast in Minnesota — but there is always the possibility.

Running backs

Trade for:

Ronnie Brown, MIA. Remember the mantra: Buy low, sell high. Ronnie owners are seething right now after consecutive weeks of Ricky Williams stealing Brown’s thunder. Add in an unfavorable matchup for Miami this week in New England, and you have all the ingredients for a good buy-low stew. However, you can forget Ricky Williams after this week … the Dolphins play such a run-friendly slate the rest of the way, there will be plenty of stats to go around. Starting in Week 10, Miami plays Tampa Bay, Carolina, Buffalo, New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston. Brown, who is integral for the team’s wildcat scheme and catches his fair share of passes, as well, will see much better days as the season progresses. Pounce now, or kick yourself later.

Beanie Wells, ARI. In redraft leagues, many are nervous that Tim Hightower will continue to eat away at Beanie’s opportunities. However, watching both players, it is obvious that Wells has so much more to offer in terms of explosiveness, big-play ability and all-around potential. The Cardinals are struggling this season and need to find their identity. The passing game isn’t the cure-all it was last year, and it is just a matter of time until Wells becomes the team’s defacto go-to weapon. Too boot, the Cardinals have a sweet schedule the rest of the way, especially during the fantasy playoffs, where Beanie will be lighting up the fantasy scoreboard against the Lions and Rams, respectively.

Trade away:

Matt Forte, CHI. You trade players when their value is maxed out, and that is exactly where Forte is at the moment. There have been few players more disappointing this season as Forte — a consensus top-five pick in most fantasy drafts this summer. He has struggled against all except the easiest of opposing teams (only decent games were against Detroit and Cleveland), and has a slew of challenging matchups as the season progresses. The kicker is looking ahead to the fantasy playoff weeks, where Forte plays arguably the toughest run defense slate in back-to-back contests with Baltimore and Minnesota.

Michael Turner, ATL. It amazes me how much love this guy got in PPR leagues to start the season considering how uninvolved he is in the Falcons passing game. This year, he has just three catches all season, and has struggled to be the TD machine that defined his breakout campaign in 2008. He is coming off 151 yards rushing and a TD against the New Orleans Saints, but has a smattering of really tough defenses in the horizon. His Week 16 (typical fantasy championship) matchup with Buffalo is really juicy, but his play the rest of the fantasy regular season may doom any chances of you getting to that point.

Wide receivers

Trade for:

Calvin Johnson, DET. Say what you will about Calvin’s recent injury woes and the inconsistent rookie play at quarterback for the Lions … the bottom line is that when Megatron plays, he produces. His last full game of action was a Week 4 matchup with the Bears in which he had eight catches for 133 yards. As soon as he returns to the field, expect instant dividends, and all signs are pointing towards a return this week. The remaining schedule is passing-friendly, and Calvin will finish the year ranked up where he belongs — among the WR elite.

Steve Smith, CAR. Has any player underperformed as hideously as Steve Smith this year? Much like the much-hyped Carolina Panthers, Smith has been non-existent. He has found himself riding the fantasy pine in many leagues and even dropped by a few short-sighted managers. However, look closer to his performance the past two weeks … a 6-for-99 outing against Buffalo and a 3-for-56 (and a long-awaited TD) against Arizona this past week. The Panthers made a statement against the Cardinals, and it wouldn’t be far-fetched to expect the team to start riding that momentum to a much-needed torrid stretch. Smith will rebound, and he can be had at the moment for a few empty peanut shells.

Trade away:

Donald Driver, GB. Currently the 12th-highest scoring receiver in football, it is hard to expect Driver to keep up the pace for an entire season. Aaron Rodgers struggles to stay upright game in and game out due to a horrific O-line. Rodgers has also mastered the art of spreading around his passes (especially recently) and Greg Jennings, who has a much higher ceiling, is primed to cut more and more into Drivers’ production.

Steve Smith, NYG. After an amazingly torrid start to the season, Smith has cooled off considerably. He hasn’t scored a TD in four straight games and hasn’t had over 100 yards receiving since his Week 4 matchup with Kansas City. The Giants are really spreading the ball around, and Smith will continue to struggle with consistency down the stretch because of that. Thanks to such a huge start, Smith still has plenty of trade interest in fantasy circles … but if you can swing him for Calvin Johnson or Steve Smith, than by all means, go for it.

Tight ends

Trade for:

Jason Witten, DAL. No one in their right mind would have expected Witten to be 16th among all tight ends at this point in the season in terms of fantasy scoring. A major reason for that was the emergence of Miles Austin. What makes Witten’s numbers so deceiving is that he’s scored just one TD all season. It isn’t that he’s not targeted in the offense — in fact, he’s tied for fourth in the league in receptions (with Antonio Gates and Brent Celek). As Austin demands more and more attention from opposing defenses, the short passing game will get more breathing room and Witten will start notching some touchdowns. He’s about as cheap as he’ll be all season.

Jermichael Finley, GB. This is more a dynasty league suggestion than anything else, but Finley has proven that he’s the apple of Rodgers’ eye when it comes to tight ends on the Packers. Finley has been sidelined with a knee injury, and will likely miss this week’s contest against Tampa Bay. However, Finley will be explosive again when he returns and should be a top tight end for years to come if he can build off the momentum he started with a 6-for-128 performance against Minnesota in Week 4.

Trade away:

Vernon Davis, SF. Davis looks like a favorite of new QB Alex Smith. However, his stats are greatly inflated from his 7-for-93 (with three TD) game against Houston during Week 7. Since then, the team has welcomed rookie Michael Crabtree into the fold, and Crabtree continues to see more and more looks and action in the passing game. Davis will be affected the most by this. I’m not saying he won’t still have some solid games … just that they’ll sporadic moving forward.

Which players are you targeting in your respective leagues? Which are you looking to move? Using your suggestions, I’d love to develop a comprehensive list of guys you should be targeting as the trade deadline looms.

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Anyone who has drafted yet can tell you that the middle- to late-round wide receivers are as appealing as being a high school janitor during the peak of flu season.

No one in their right mind can and should feel good about staring Laveranues Coles or Deion Branch as their WR2 — or even to rely on them for spot starts off the bench.

Yet, there are some pass catchers that always seem to fall between the cracks at many drafts. These are guys you can nab late who could produce some big numbers at a critical point for you this season. The two I’m targeting the most this summer:

Receiver sleeper, my name is Earl. As in Earl Bennett. Perhaps not a sleeper to some thanks to some growing hype around this Chicago receiver, Bennett is primed to be a fantasy force this season at a fraction of the cost of similar talents. He was a non-factor last year in his rookie campaign for the Bears, but is paired with long-time Vanderbilt teammate Jay Cutler. This summer, Cutler has targeted Bennett a number of times, and Earl has responded by catching everything that comes his direction.

News today on rotoworld.com is that Bennett has officially landed a starter gig across from Devin Hester — and Bennett is much more the prototypical receiver than Hester.

Yes the Bears have a talented tight end in Greg Olson who will benefit from Cutler under center. Yes, Hester is lightning-quick. However, I bet you dollars to doughnuts that Earl Bennett leads the Bears in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this year (I was going to save this fearless projection for my response to ep’s bold predictions column, but I couldn’t resist.) I’d also place a nice-sized wager that Bennett will be a starting WR2 at some point this season in every league you participate in.

Make sure that team who starts him is yours by grabbing Bennett late in each of your drafts.

Miss out on Bennett? Why not take the player whose stock has arguably fallen the most between the NFL rookie draft and now?

That would be Michael Crabtree. In one of the biggest bonehead moves in recent sports memory, Crabree continues to hold out for a contract he doesn’t deserve. His intellectually challenged cousin even spread rumors that Crabtree is willing to sit out all season and re-enter the draft in 2010. Don’t believe that line of poo for one minute.

It’s amazing how short-sighted some fantasy owners can be this time of year. The season is long. Crabtree will sign at some point. He may not be playing in Week 1. In fact, there’s a good chance he won’t start a game by the 49ers’ week six bye. However, here’s betting that Crabtree plays no later than San Fran’s Oct. 25 game against Houston. The 49ers play against a bunch of questionable secondaries down the stretch this season, including Seattle, Arizona, Detroit and St. Louis all within the last five weeks of the season.

Crabtree has too much talent not to produce some impressive statistical totals this year. In fact, I expect Crabtree to be a major factor for many in this year’s fantasy playoffs.

Player to watch: Rumor has it that New York Jets receiver David Clowney has leap-frogged Chansi Stuckey for the opportunity to start opposite Jerricho Cotchery. Clowney has really impressed this summer and only four other receivers in the league have more preseason yards to their name. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez will have his growing pains at times this season, but he will prove adept enough for you to take a flyer on Clowney at the end of your draft if you have the extra roster space.

Who are your sleeper wide receivers for 2009? We’d love to hear your comments.

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Atlanta Braves first baseman Casey Kotchman is a Stealthy Ninja, even though he hasn’t made the cut so far.

Over the last three Stealthy Ninja updates, Kotchman has been dropped for a number of reasons: His percent owned has been either too high or too low. For the record, he’s now rostered on only 10% of Yahoo leagues. Or his numbers just were not impressive enough.

Funny how a little two-homer streak can make a player’s stats look better. Over his last four games Kotchman is 7-for-17 (.412) with 2 HRs and 8 RBIs.

And while those dingers are his only two, he’s been cranking some good numbers for most of the season. He hit .385 in the last week, .323 in the last month and .312 over the entire season.

Kotchman’s not a 5×5 1B stud, but he’s no single-trick side salad and is really heating up. If you play in a more comprehensive fantasy baseball league, he’s a keeper.

This season: Only 13 Ks and 9 walks while piling up 53 total bases, and 13 doubles. Despite only two homers, he’s got an .856 OPS.

Will he continue:

To hit homers?: Not two per week, but could finish with 20. Kotchman only has had two seasons with more than 137 or more games played in his career — the last two — and hit 11 and 14 homers. He got hot in a cup of coffee in 2005 and hit 7 homers and drove in 22 runs in just 126 at-bats. That’s a near 30-homer, 80-RBI pace.

To hit doubles?: If there’s one stat that is a lock for Kotchman it’s the double. He’s already got 91 in his career, 37 in 2007, 28 in 2008 and 13 (65-double pace) already this season.

To hit for average?: Kotchman will hit between .290 and .300. He hit .272 last year and .296 the year before, so previous evidence suggests he won’t. But a look at his minor league stats tells a different story. He hit .325 in six seasons, including .371 between a short stint in AA and 200 AAA at-bats in 2004. Over three AAA seasons, he racked up a Major-League like 569 at-bats and hit .315.

He’s also shown great plate discipline over his career, walking about as many times as he strikes out. That bodes well for Major League success.

• In his Daily Notes piece over at www.razzball.com, Grey reiterates his Friday suggestion that Kotchman is breaking out, and I have to agree.

What do you think? Are you going to pick up Kotchman? Let us know in the comments, or go start a conversation on our message boards.

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His name is Hill. Aaron Hill. And if you are following baseball this season — especially Toronto Blue Jay baseball, than you’ve heard of Hill and his offensive exploits.

Specifically, his league-leading 51 hits. Oh yeah, his eight home runs, 28 RBI and 25 runs scored with a .375 batting average aren’t too shabby, either.

The big question with Hill — the same player that went undrafted in a number of fantasy baseball leagues earlier this spring — is whether or not he’s having an Ian Kinsler-esque coming-out party, or if he’s one of the biggest sell-high candidates in fantasy baseball.

Hill, to many, is an anomoly. Last season was shortened for him due to injury — and he produced just two home runs and 20 RBI on a .263 batting average in 55 games. His stats from this season (listed above) were accomplished in just 32 games. This season, he has a home run-to-games played ratio of 25%. Last year, again offset by injuries, his HR/G ratio was a mediocre .036%.

Hill started playing with Toronto in the big leagues in 2005. From then through the 2007 season, his numbers steadily climbed. For example, in 105 games in his rookie campaign, he plated 40 runners (38%). By 2007, he accumulated 78 RBI in 160 games (49%). His home runs through the first three seasons of his major league career climbed from three, to six, to 17.

If we look past his shortened 2008 season, he definitely was on pace to greatly improve his stats — especially in a Blue Jay lineup that has, so far this season, been very potent.

Projecting his current eight home runs in 32 games over the course of a season (specifically to 160 games played — like he had in 2007), he’s on pace to hit 40 home runs this season (again 25% HR/G ratio). In 2007, easily his most productive full season to date, he cracked 17 home runs in 160 games, or 11%.

Realistically, Hill won’t hit  40 home runs this season, unless he’s somehow sneaking steroids. However, it is reasonable to expect him to easily surpass the 17 home runs he had in 2007 (he’s already almost halfway there). Splitting the difference between the 17 homers he smacked in 2007 and the 40 he’s on pace for at the moment, he could realistically hit 28 dingers this year (he’d only need 11 more all season) — and compared to the stats of second baseman last season, that would place him third in round-trippers at the position (behind just Chase Utley and Dan Uggla). Hill has always hovered around a .300 batting average during full-season play in the majors, so while his .325 may deflate a little the rest of the way, he should still provide solid batting average help to many at second base in fantasy leagues. Neither Utley (.292) or Uggla (.260) hit over .300 last year — and actually, only a few others at the position were able to do so. He also should compete for the best RBI total at the position, too, although predicting RBI can be tough.

The bottom line is that Hill looks like a player on the rise, and at a fairly shallow position, should be a top option moving forward.

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I’ve wanted Francisco Liriano to come back and be the pre-injury superhuman fireballer that the Twins figured could replace Johan Santana. I think every fantasy player has wanted that.

We’ve answered with our picks, and our keeper selections. I even picked him as a Cy Young favorite, but he hasn’t come close to living up to those expectations yet, and again.

I actually tried trading for him last week, sent out several offers across several leagues, looking to take advantage of owners who might not have checked how slow he typically starts out of the gate. But when you compare his statistics pre-2007 and post, you could argue that I made out better on the deal because current pace could be his new season and career pace.

His current WHIP is on par with last year’s unimpressive 1.39 and his K rate is the same. That being solid, but less than one per inning. Not the kinds of numbers draftees expected. his current batting average against is .264, close to his .254 from last year. (Stats from Liriano’s Yahoo player profile page.)

The one disturbing part about the comparison: He’s on pace to give up significantly more runs, earned runs and homers.

He had a good outing last week, and like the owners who managed to get him, I hope he can turn things around. Unfortunately, his numbers are not trending that way.

He’s got two starts this week, as listed in Jersey Joe’s inaugural post over at www.razzball.com. A couple years ago we’d have thought a two-start week in 2009 could be good for 20Ks, a sub-1.00 WHIP and maybe even a complete-game shutout. Now, as Jersey Joe puts it, he’s still a fantasy start, but don’t expect to ever catch a glimpse of the 2006 Liriano.

Do you think Liriano’s going to turn things around? Do any young pitchers have a chance to produce up to the level we expected from Liriano? Let us know in the comments, or start a conversation on our message boards.

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