You ain’t seen nothing yet.

We’re on the verge of experiencing something truly amazing in 2010 and beyond. There’s a new stable of able running backs in the NFL, and you can thank an opportunistic bunch of rookie 2009 backs for giving us what will be quite a good show in the coming months and years … and for giving us something to debate right now.

So, which of the the following young backs will be the next elite fantasy force? Let the debating begin …

First, let’s look at the candidates.

Knowshon Moreno, Denver. Given the clearest path to fantasy relevance, Moreno was solid during the 2009 campaign. He produced the most yards rushing of all the rookie backs in 2009 (965) along with touchdowns (7). He also has a great chance of keeping his job. Correll Buckhalter isn’t a major threat for carries in that offense, and regardless of coach Josh McDaniels’ history of RBBCs, there is no indication that the Broncos are actively looking for another back. The biggest knock against Moreno was his yards per carry, which hovered around 4 all season (including 2.7, 2.2 and 2.0 performances in weeks 14, 15 and 16, respectively) and finished at 3.8. Some question Moreno’s explosiveness and homerun threat capabilities.

Beanie Wells, Arizona. Stuck behind over-achieving Tim Hightower through the first half of the season, Wells started to come on strong as the season progressed. He finished the year with a 4.6 yards per carry total in regular season games and a rookie-RB best eight touchdowns. He produced 861 yards rushing during the regular season on 193 carries. It was apparent that Wells has taken the starting job and doesn’t plan to look back. Beanie isn’t as big a threat in the passing game as others on this list and does have a history of injury concerns, although he had no trouble avoiding the IR in his first pro season.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia. Out of all the rookie backs in 2009, McCoy easily led the pack in receptions (41) and receiving yards (347). Both are indicative of what McCoy could do in a system known for utilizing a receiver out of the backfield. He also rushed for 664 yards and four touchdowns on 161 carries in 2009. In the six games where LeSean replaced an injured Brian Westbrook as the primary starter, he averaged 12.45 fantasy points and scored three touchdowns. Westbrook was recently released into free agency, paving the way for McCoy to emerge as a starting option at the moment, but there are numerous whisperings out of the City of Brotherly Love that the Eagles will be actively shopping for a veteran RB and depending on who they import, McCoy’s value could swing drastically on this list and overall.

Shonn Greene, New York Jets. Greene’s 304 yards on 54 carries and two touchdowns in three playoff appearances turned the collective head of fantasy owners everywhere, but Greene was successful well before that. He averaged over five yards per carry during the regular season, with 636 yards rushing during that span. That was all while Thomas Jones was sharing carries. Jones will not be back in Jetsland in 2010, opening up the doors for potential eliteness by Mr. Greene.

Felix Jones, Dallas. OK … he wasn’t a rookie in 2009, but Jones qualifies for this list because he’s in the same age bracket (same age as McCoy and Moreno, two years younger than Greene and one older than Beanie), he has taken over as his team’s probably starting back in 2010 and … well … this is my list and I can do whatever I want. Jones averaged a full yard per carry more than anyone else on this list during the regular season and was electric in the playoffs (217 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries … a whopping 7.2 yards per carry). Due to a declining skillset by Marion Barber and Jones’ playoff breakout, it is safe to assume that he’ll receive the lion’s share of carries in 2010, and could be golden if he can avoid the injury bug that has struck at times during his career.

So, we have five exceptionally talented young backs … all with potential to become something great in the NFL. All, amazingly enough, have found themselves in the fast lane to becoming their teams’ respective starting RB in 2010 and beyond.

But two questions remain … which has the best chance of becoming an elite fantasy RB and how many of these players will be top-flight stat options during their careers?

LeSean McCoy has the potential to be a big asset, especially in PPR leagues, however, I believe he will find himself in an RBBC quicker than any of these other options. The Eagles are looking at a wide variety of available talents, including Chester Taylor, Thomas Jones, LaDanian Tomlinson and others. They may even snag a bigger back in the draft and there have been strong rumors that they’ll pursue highly talented, yet highly troubled Marshawn Lynch out of Buffalo. None of this bodes well for McCoy, who was decent while replacing Westbrook in 2009, but not as dazzling as many expected or hoped for.

Knowshon Moreno is, at the moment, the leading horse in this discussion simply because he has more playing time under his belt than most of the guys on this list and should remain the unquestioned starter on his team. However, many expected Matt Forte to be the class of the 2008 rookies last season as a sophomore, and he was less than stellar. The one stat I can’t let go with Moreno was his yards per carry … which was easily the worst of the five on this list.

Shonn Greene is quickly moving up the dynasty rankings thanks to Jones’ impending release and hype surrounding his impressive playoff performances. What many people overlook with Greene that he recorded zero receptions … that’s right, none … during the entire regular season. Sure, Michael Turner was able to produce without being a major piece of the receiving game for the Falcons in 2008 and, when not injured, in 2009. However, his ceiling would be so much higher if he was also a part of the pass-catching option. I see Greene as the next Michael Turner from a receptions and overall upside standpoint. Greene will be elite, but not a top one or two-type fantasy back.

Felix Jones has yet to be a primary back for a full season in the NFL and has suffered injuries each season even in smaller roles. The sky is the limit for Jones if he can avoid missing time … it is just hard to project that over a full season. Still, his incredible yards per carry are impossible to ignore, and I fully expect Jones to be an elite fantasy back sooner or later depending on how he’s used and if the Cowboys can keep Jones fresh. With Barber and Tashard Choice at their disposal, the Cowboys shouldn’t be hard-pressed to keep Jones on the field more than off it. This is why I predicted Jones could be the 2010 version of Ray Rice in my super-sleepers post.

This leaves Beanie Wells, who may not be an elite receiving option, but definitely does enough in the passing game to reach a higher level of play in his NFL career than the Michael Turners or Shonn Greenes. Removing his six-for-19 performance in spot duty in week 17 against Green Bay, Beanie was an impressive 114-for-602 in weeks seven through 16 if you take out his weeks 12 and 13 games against run-stingy Tennessee and Minnesota – that’s 5.3 yards per carry during most of that stretch. He scored six TDs in the final seven regular-season games that counted for anything. In reading commentary at numerous sports and fantasy-related websites about all of those on this list, Beanie Wells got the best overall vibe, including one site, which said that he’s 90 percent of Adrian Peterson. Some point to a questionable injury history for Beanie, but he did stay healthy against some of the best defenders in the NFL during the second half of the season and has more of a chance of completing a full 16-game slate than Felix Jones, in my opinion.

So, if I had to gamble on which of these five young studs will be the next super-fantasy commodity, I’d place my money on Wells, although that could change at a moment’s notice depending on how other situations play out.

And out of the group, I see Greene, Jones and Wells being the three who will become potential top-five fantasy RBs at some point during their careers.

Want more running back discussion? Check out my early 2010 dynasty RB rankings here.

What is your opinion? Which of these guys will be the next elite fantasy option? We’d love to hear your opinion in the space below.

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In the middle of the fantasy black hole known as Pittsburgh, there is a rising star that every manager should watch closely in the upcoming fantasy drafts … this being Andrew McCutchen. Getting an opportunity for regular playing time after the Pirates dealt Nate McLouth, McCutchen didn’t take long start turning heads, hitting .286 with 12 long balls, 22 steals and 54 RBI in 108 games. Imagine what he could do in a full season of action. McCutchen is the perfect example that you don’t need to go hog wild for a stud OF option early in your draft.

Carlos Gonzalez may be more known in fantasy circles than you’d hope out of a “value” player on this list … however, he’s still being undervalued in too many of the mock drafts I’ve seen. Looking at some of the smaller, yet perhaps more impressive stats, Gonzalez outproduced 2009 fantasy darling Matt Kemp in at-bats per runs scored, at-bats per home runs and almost the same at-bats per stolen bases. Cgonz finished with 13 homers and 16 stolen bases in just 89 games. Project that over a full season (especially considering he hit .320 with 12 homers and 24 RBI after the All-Star break), and you have an elite fantasy outfielder.

Chris Coghlan was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2009. More impressive to me was that he hit seven of his nine homers after the All-Star break and had a dependable reputation in the minors to swipe some bases (34 in the minors in 2008). Both stat lines tell me that Coglan could become a solid multiple category contributor in fantasy circles in the near future, and is worthy of some draft-day fantasy love from managers in all formats. Want more to like? Coghlan was second among all outfielders in second-half batting average.

You could spend a first or second-round pick on someone like Carl Crawford if you are worried about your stolen base production in 2010 … or you could wait a good many rounds to snatch Michael Bourn. He stole 61 bases in 2009, and while he doesn’t produce power numbers, he did show marked improvement in plate discipline last year (.285). There may not be much support in the Houston lineup to help drive Bourn home, but he will still produce plenty of value in fantasy circles this season. For more on speed options in fantasy baseball, check this out.

While there was plenty of real-life fireworks surrounding the Yankees acquiring of Curtis Granderson during the offseason, he continues to get very little recognition among fantasy gurus. That’s easy to understand considering Granderson’s .249 batting average was a decline for the third-straight season and his 91 runs scored was another lowpoint in 2009 … but it is hard to overlook how much better Granderson could produce in such a potent New York lineup … especially if he winds up as a leadoff or No. 2 hitter. Watch what happens on draft day, and if he falls far enough, he could be a good value with plenty of power and speed upside.

Want a deeper value pick at OF? Look no further than Drew Stubbs … as we share here.

Who are you targeting for your fantasy outfield? We’d love to hear in the comments below.

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It was 12-year-old who had just finished using a Coleman propane cook stove. Within seconds of turning it off, he decided to touch the burner, jumping back and screaming in pain a split second later.

A Scout leader ran over to console the crying kid, asking what happened.

The 12-year-old says, “I did this,” and put the same hand back on the hot burner.

Stupidity, some say, is defined by doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

So I wonder why I keep drafting Kansas City’s talented yet consistently underachieving Alex Gordon as a sleeper third baseman every year, it seems, since the dawn of time.

And the sad thing is, I’ll be looking to draft him again this year — along with these guys (check out my sleeper picks at catcher, first base and second base, as well):

Alex Gordon has burned plenty of fantasy baseball managers, and will be bypassed by many in your respective drafts, for good reason. Ep is one who plans to avoid Gordon in 2010. However, based on talent alone, he may be falling far enough in most drafts to have value. Many projected him as a sleeper last season and he quickly disappointed with a .095 batting average through April before surgery to repair a tear in his right hip cartilage. He was back in July, but struggled and was demoted to the minors. At that point, Gordon totally fell off most people’s radar … and there’s a good chance that your leaguemates may have missed his .280 average with three homers and 11 RBI in the final month of the season. Not stats to get super-giddy about, but if Gordon follows through with excessive weight training this preseason like he promised at the end of the 2009 campaign, he may be able to tap into the vast potential that saw him drafted second overall in 2005. Not saying you should draft him as your starting third baseman, but somewhere in the last two rounds as a guy who could surprise with around 20 homers and double-digit steals if the planets align.

Jake Fox, now with the Oakland Athletics, is another player with lots of potential … enough so that ep had Fox on his radar five months ago.  Fox destroyed Triple-A competition last year with the Cubs to the tune of .409 and 17 homers in just 45 games. He fared well in spot duty in the majors, but was buried beneath Aramis Ramirez on the depth chart. His trade to Oakland will provide the extra playing time he needs to excel, and as an extra bonus, Fox is eligible at OF as well as 3B in 2010 (although his value will be at third). He’s a player worth taking a risk on late in your draft.

Gordon Beckham will technically play second base this season for the White Sox, but will still be eligible at third. One of the most valuable mid-season pickups for fantasy owners in 2009, Beckham’s 14 home runs surprised even the most optimistic of projectionists. He does not have a track record of going deep and lacks a true power swing, but Beckham still easily could provide a 20/10 (HR/SB) campaign in 2010 … putting him in decent company among third basemen.

Ryan Zimmerman plays for the Nationals, but he doesn’t show it. One of just a few bright spots for Washington in 2009, Zimmerman showed plenty of power ability with 33 home runs (tied with Evan Longoria and behind just Mark Reynolds in terms of home runs by a third baseman). Some would consider Zimmerman a sell-high type player after jacking the ball more than twice what he accomplished in 2008 … however Zimmerman was scorching in the second half of 2009 (.297, 18 homers, 54 RBI) and improved his overall season batting average for the second consecutive season. These trends tell me that Zimmerman has plenty of potential left in the tank for 2010 and beyond. He may offer any speed potential, but Zimmerman is still a very solid value option for 2010.

One player you won’t see on any of my teams in 2010 is David Wright. Sure, he’s averaged a .311 batting average and 25 stolen bases over the past three seasons, but his major power outage (from 33 long balls in 2008 to 10 in 2009) is a very bad sign and the Mets continue to flounder to put talent around Wright. While I never signal out any player as a guy I’ll never own (for the right price, every player has value), but Wright will continue to be drafted as a top-three third baseman, and there is little to believe that players drafted ways, ways after him won’t produce similar numbers. ep agrees.

What is your opinion on third base in 2010? Who are your sleepers at third base? Do you see third base as surprisingly shallow as second base is surprisingly deep? We’d love to hear your comments below.

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And, for the first time in my fantasy career, I found myself giving advice so unrisky, non-dramatic and un-ninja-like, I felt sick to my stomach.

I still do.

I’ll hate myself for saying this out loud, in e-print, but this is the year that I …

… burn an earlier pick than normal on one of the four elite catchers.

Now, when I say “elite” catcher, let me get specific.

I mean Joe Mauer … he of the wicked .365 batting average. He of the career-high 28 home runs in 2009 (almost double what he jacked in 2007 and 2008 combined … something a little fishy about that?). Mauer is a workaholic who will produce for fantasy owners at such an elite pace (although I do expect a dropoff in home run totals), that having him gives you an instant boost.

Brian McCann is similar. Twenty-one dingers, a .281 batting average and playing for the prolific Braves, McCann will continue to be a beacon of fantasy consistency in 2010.

Victor Martinez had solid stats last year with the Red Sox, and considering the protection he gets in that lineup (Bay or no Bay), Martinez will continue to be a top-notch catcher in fantasy circles.

Matt Wieters may be the most risky of these top-four, but his star is quickly rising. Here’s betting he doubles the nine home runs he produced last season, and continues to work on his batting average. Playing for the Orioles doesn’t give him a lot of protection, but he is still an exciting player that can play at an elite level sooner rather than later.

After those four players, the dropoff is so severe, in my humble opinion, that I’m willing to burn a third-round pick on Mauer or Martinez or perhaps even McCann. I’d be willing to reach into the fifth or possibly even fourth round for Wieters.

That goes against all conventional teaching from the fantasy baseball days of yore … when you let Joe Draftaholic take an elite catcher early in the draft while you are padding other key positional stats … and then snag the next up-and-coming catcher in later rounds and not losing much in the way of statistical dropoff.

But there is such disparity in the catcher ranks this year … more than ever in my opinion, that I think you put yourself in a better position with one of the four guys mentioned above. For example, let’s say you snag a Jason Bay or Raul Ibanez in the third round and wait on catching. Let’s hypothetically say you land Mike Napoli or Geovanny Soto in the later rounds. Your combo of Bay-Soto or Bay Napoli will produce less, in my opinion, than if you take a Maurer in the early third round and then turn around two rounds later and snag an Adam Dunn-esque player. You get just as many (if not much more in the home run department) and Mauer’s batting average helps offset Dunn’s lack of plate discipline.

Sure there are many exceptions to the rule, and I’m not advocating that everyone go on a mad drafting spree for the four top catchers in 2010. There are a few consolation prizes at the position that I could live with. Including:

Kurt Suzuki is one of just a handful of catchers who’s stats are actually going in the right direction. Home runs are climbing, stolen bases quadrupled in 2009 (eight to two in 2008) and batting average is hovering around a respectable .274. He’s young and has not met his ceiling yet.

Miguel Montero made the best of increased playing time when Chris Snyder went down with injury last season for the D-backs. He hit a career-high 16 dingers and posted a sweet .294 at the plate. He also has a much higher ceiling than many at the position, especially since he has yet to start an entire season in the bigs.

There are a few sleeper candidates who could break out this season. John Baker has some detractors but also could open things up in 2010. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has yet to produce a full season without injury and has tons of potential … although he has seen some stat dropoffs that scare me. Kelly Shoppach can’t hit righties and has a few other deficiencies, but has some untapped power potential that could be drool-inducing. Buster Posey is a rookie with boatloads of potential, but just what will his role be in 2010, especially since Bengie Molina is still officially in town?

Again, someone should slap me for being so un-ninja with this post. For suggesting that you should actually go with the crowd and pay a somewhat higher price for one of the catching elite. However, I just can’t advocate anyone else at this position. Hopefully our ninja viewers here can set me straight.

What is your opinion on the catching class of 2010?

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It’s completely unnecessary.

Looking at a draft list from last year, Kurt Warner was picked in the 17th round, Philip Rivers was picked in the 15th and Aaron Rodgers was picked in the 13th.

In case you were comatose for the entire season, all three of those guys finished in the top 5.

Now, our league wasn’t filled top to bottom with experts, but there were plenty of questions surrounding each of those players going into the season and I’m sure they were incredible values across almost all formats and in most every league. They faced questions like Matt Cassel, Trent Edwards and Jay Cutler face this season.

Quarterback is the best position in fantasy football to seek out value and while I’m about to tell you that Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the three best QBs in the game, I wouldn’t recommend you draft any of them in standard leagues.

The only exception to this rule is a league that allows you to play two starting QBs. If you have Brees and someone like Warner or Rodgers you are going to have a clear advantage over just about every other team in your league.

With that in mind, these quarterback rankings are intended for standard scoring re-draft leagues:

QB Tier 1

1. Drew Brees, Saints - The most prolific offensive player in the game in standard scoring leagues.

2. Tom Brady, Patriots - Should be back and throwing to those weapons that made him a fantasy god in 2007.

3. Peyton Manning, Colts - Proved last year that he doesn’t need a dominant Marvin Harrison, or a competent running game to throw for 4,000 yards and almost 30 TDs.

QB Tier 2

4. Kurt Warner. Cardinals - Yes, he’s a year older, but those weapons are so dericious.

5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - Will be a Tier 1 quarterback next year. Lot’s of weapons.

6. Donovan McNabb, Eagles - Still the man in Philadelphia. He can score 40 points in any given week and win your matchup almost single-handedly.

7. Philip Rivers, Chargers – Rivers can’t repeat last year’s performance, can he? Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates hope he can.

8. Tony Romo, Cowboys - With TO he’s a lock for Tier 1. Not sold Roy Williams can handle the responsibility of and hype that goes with being WR1 on America’s Team. But Jessica Simpson’s ex still has a good cache of weapons.

9. Matt Ryan, Falcons - Bulked up over the offseason. The team added Tony Gonzalez and wants to lighten the load on Michael Turner. /Raises eyebrow/ Dare we think about numbers that could put him in Tier 1 in 2010? We dare.

10. Carson Palmer, Bengals - No TJ Housh, but Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles and the Randy-Moss like (?) Chris Henry, coupled with reports that Palmer’s throwing darts out there, has me anticipating a good season. Value in 2009. Ranked as a stud again in 2010.

QB Tier 3

11. Trent Edwards, Bills - The Terrell Owens factor has been beaten around pretty good at Chinstrap Ninjas. TO makes: Lee Evans, a solid No. 1, into a great No. 2; Josh Reed, a questionable No. 2, into a solid No. 3; and opens up the rest of the field.

12. Jay Cutler, Bears - On the surface he has less weapons, but it’ll be interesting to see how Greg Olsen, Devin Hester and Matt Forte evolve with a Pro Bowl-caliber QB at the helm.

13. Matt Schaub, Texans - Schaub gets a lot of love on this site, for obvious reasons. He’s got one of the few receivers worthy of a first-round pick and a stable of other weapons at his disposal. If only he could stay healthy.

14. David Garrard, Jaguars - Let it be known, I’ve got a Garrard man-crush this season. And, in case you were unaware, he was the ninth best fantasy QB in standard scoring leagues last year.

15. Kyle Orton, Broncos - If Brandon Marshall stays, Orton will find some success running that offense.

16. Chad Pennington, Dolphins - You know who the No. 11 QB in standard fantasy scoring leagues was last year? This guy. Look it up.

17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks - Any time a team adds a player the caliber of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the quarterback has to be happy. Problem is, Hasselbeck has to be right to make this whole thing work.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - Two years ago, Big Ben had 32 TD passes with 11 picks and 3,100+ yards. I wouldn’t count on that again, but he’ll be better than he was a year ago.

19. Eli Manning, Giants - The Giants run the ball down the field. The younger Manning is typically overrated on draft day.

20. Brett Favre/Sage Rosenfels Vikings - Favre’s coming to Minnesota and will throw a lot of long passes, to Vikings receivers and opponents. But Rosenfels will start a game or two.

21. Matt Cassel, Chiefs - I’d like to say Cassel is a sleeper, but he’s got Dwayne Bowe and little else on a bad team.

QB Tier 4

22. Jake Delhomme, Panthers - In 2004 and 2005, he was fantasy relevant. Now, especially with the running game’s success, not so much. But, as I’ve said in other places, any QB throwing to Steve Smith could pop out a good game or two.

23. Duante Culpepper/Matt Stafford, Lions - Oh, Lions fans, what pain you must feel. Yes, the QB will have weapons – Calvin Johnson could pop out a best receiver in the game type season any year now – but I have a feeling the QBs will split starts down the middle. Obviously, in dynasty and keeper leagues, Stafford rockets into low-tier 2/high-tier 3.

24. Shaun Hill/Alex Smith, 49ers - The uncertainty over who should start is aggravating. Hill proved he was better last year, but because of the competition I wouldn’t be surprised to see Smith get a couple starts this year.

25. Jason Campbell, Redskins - Jason, still waiting for you to be a fantasy factor of any kind.

26. Joe Flacco, Ravens - He was not much of a fantasy factor last year with Derrick Mason.

27. Jeff Garcia/JaMarcus Russell - News this week is that the starting QB job is Russell’s to lose. Did you see him play last year? He’ll lose it.

28. Brady Quinn/Derek Anderson, Browns - Like the 49ers competition above, both guys will get playing time and will have a potential play-making WR to throw to.

29. Kellen Clemens/Mark Sanchez, Jets - Sanchez is the future – and should be drafted higher accordingly in dynasty/keeper setups – but whoever the now is will throw to an overrated Jerricho Cotchery and the esteemed duo of Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney.

30. Luke McCown/Freeman/Leftwich/J.Johnson, Buccaneers - Uuuuuuugggly. McCown gets first shot at it, says coach. Byron Leftwich is better. Josh Freeman is possibly the future. Not sure how the Marlins feel about Josh Johnson playing in the NFL. I’m not touching this mess unless they show me something amazing in preseason.

31. Marc Bulger, Rams - Speaking of mess.

32. Kerry Collins, Titans - Chris Johnson and LenDale White get way too many touches, Collins is as old as dirt. (Dirt is Kurt Warner.) Plus, there’s that whole Vince Young is getting paid a lot of money to sit on the bench thing.

33. Tyler Thigpen, Chiefs - His running ability out of the QB slot makes him an interesting wildcat option on a team that will need every gadget it can conjure.

34. Vince Young, Titans - As a wildcat or a starter, Young will be slightly relevant in at least one and a half games this year.

35. Pat White, Dolphins/Troy Smith, Ravens - Like Young and Thigpen, I’d wildcat them a couple times as a coach just to see what happens. Yes, that’s me turning wildcat into a verb.

Other Notable Backups

Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF; Chad Henne, MIA; Kevin O’Connell, NE; Rex Grossman, HOU; Patrick Ramsey, TEN; Chris Simms, DEN; Kevin Kolb, PHI; Drew Stanton, DET; Matt Leinart, ARZ; Seneca Wallace, SEA.

Sorry for the novel-esque length, but what do you think? Who’s in your top 10? Speak to us in the comments (they’re below), or start a discussion on our forums.

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Los Angeles’ John Lackey allowed 10 hits in seven innings, but K’d 10 to get a W. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s Barry Zito got rocked for 10 hits and seven runs in 3.2 innings.

Cleveland’s Carl Pavano, my top pick, was very much not a Ninja. He gave up nine hits and six runs before being chased in 5 innings.

My saving grace: Dave Bush did suck. The Milwuakee hurler gave up 5 hits, 8 runs — all earned — in 3.2 innings.

All I can say is, if you want to be a Ninja you gotta break some eggs. Wait, that doesn’t sound right.

Would you take some buys/sells as compensation? I knew you would:

Buy:

Clint Barmes, 2B, 3B, SS, Rockies — Barmes has been among the best hitters in baseball over the last month — .336, 17 runs, 17 RBIs, 2 homers, 2 steals — and he’s got lots of juicy infield eligibility.

Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks –Remember in the preseason when everybody was predicting 20-20 or 30-30 for Young. Remember how the season started with everyone laughing at those predictions?

In the last week, young his hitting a whopping .286 (that’s excellent for him), and has 3 runs, 3 RBIs, 2 homers and 2 steals. Heating up? This Ninja thinks so.

Ty Wigginton, 2B, 3B, OF, 6B, Orioles –The Orioles wish they could add an extra position just for him and call it the Wigginton. He went 3-for-4 with 2 homers, 3 RBIs and 4 runs on Sunday.

He’s not getting consistent playing time, but should and soon will. Get him now before the Orioles realize Melvin Mora deserves a spot on the bench.

Sell:

Garrett Atkins, 1B, 3B, Rockies — You tell you’re victim: Atkins was 3-for-4 Sunday! He’s ready to get hot!

You know the second part is a lie, but somebody will see his name and believe it. Heck, 58% of you still have him on a freaking roster. Don’t expect a lot for him, but understand that he is worth nothing.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians — I know you wasted a high pick/lots of cash on the Indians OF superstar, but he’s got an elbow injury. And while the MRI came back negative there’s “still something in there” according to manager Eric Wedge via a Yahoo update.

Elbow injuries are not good, and if he comes back it’ll probably linger all season. Sell now and roster players who’ll be helpful for the rest of the season.

Derek Lee, 1B, Cubs — Grey over at Razzball compared Lee to Lyle Overbay in one of his recent updates, and I couldn’t make a better connection.

He’s not a power hitter, he’s not going to steal any bases for you and he’s not going to hit .300.

An owner in your league is going to believe that he still has some of that old Derek Lee fire in his gut. Stalk that owner and slice up his roster.

What do you think? Oh, you wouldn’t sell Sizemore for anything? Already have Barmes? Tell us all about it in the comments, or start a conversation in our now de-spammed (and de-porned) forums.

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Stealthy Ninjas are back, and on the heels of last week’s A’s edition, we’ve got a Royals edition.

Shudder. But the fantasy baseball stats don’t lie. … Except in the case of Royals starting pitcher Brian Bannister. The 2003 seventh-round draft pick has been all sorts of pitcher this season.

Over four starts from May 19 to June 3 Bannister was an unholy team-killer. He allowed 22 runs in 20.2 innings — and that was with a 2-earned-run no-decision mixed in. However, in the six starts sandwiching that bad stretch he’s allowed just seven runs.

So, is Bannister a team killing-fantasy saboteur who deserves a blade in the kidney, or will he provide marginal aid for the ERA-challenged?

Unfortunately for us fantasy owners, Bannister only produces about 4 Ks per start so his only value is in the IPs, Ws and the pitching averages. Playing for the Royals virtually eliminates him from consistent win-producer status.

The right-hander is a spot-starter in all but the deepest fantasy leagues who will be consistently valuable in only one or two categories a week.

Some other Stealthy Ninjas, according to ownership rates in Yahoo leagues, starting with this week’s hitters:

Miguel Olivo, C, Royals (4%) Key stats: .381 average, 4 HR, 7 R, 8 RBI, 1 SB

• Advice: In 2006 and 2007, Olivo hit 16 homers, career highs. He’s on pace to break that this season, and currently in a 3-way tie for second on the team in Kansas City. However, to hope his .381 BA continues is very wishful thinking because he’s a career .242 hitter. If you’re playing a catcher of the week, you probably have some flailing ninja filling the spot next to C on your roster. Olivo would be the C du jour right now.

Alberto Callaspo, 2B, SS, Royals (24%) Key stats: .522 AVG, 6 R, 2 HR, 8 RBIs, 0 SB

• Advice: One of the few Royals I would own on one of my fantasy teams, Callaspo hit his first career grand slam Wednesday. That skews the RBI total a bit, but the .522 is pretty impressive. Looking at his minor league stats, I wouldn’t consider it a stretch for him to pop out 10-15 homers and 10-15 steals with a .320 average in his career. He hasn’t shown any speed yet this year and looks like he’ll be on the low end of those power numbers, but the average and dual-MI eligibility works.

Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins (25%) Key Stats: .440, 5 R, 3 HR 6 RBI

• Advice: Those expectations will never be met, but he’s a serviceable fantasy outfielder, and a potential starter in deep leagues. I gave up on him in one league weeks ago, but he’s hitting .276 with 8 homers and 29 RBIs. he raised his average nearly 30 points in five games, but then was held hitless against Toronto on Sunday.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres (10%) Key Stats: .375, 3 R, 2 HR, 11 RBI

• Advice: Who doesn’t want to recommend Kouzmanoff. Just say it, Kouzmanoff. Nice, right? But what marginal help Kouzmanoff will bring to you in power, he will sabatoge you right in the batting average. Despite his recent scorching performance, he’s still only hitting .235 and is a career .259 hitter.

Cody Ross, OF, Marlins (20%) Key Stats: .407, 6 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI

• Advice: Take away his third grand slam of the season and those numbers don’t look that impressive. But, then again, he already has three grand slams this season. That ties the club record held by Bobby Bonilla and Jeff Conine. Ross cut his teeth for years, did well in his first regular-playing time situation last year and has been solid this year. I like him for 25 homers, 85 RBIs, 10 steal and a .270 average this season.

STEALTHY PITCHERS

Jose Contreras, SP, White Sox (7%) Key stats: 16.0 IP, 2 W, 11 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP.

• Advice: Since his return from Triple-A punishment, Contreras has been an impressive assassin. He started 0-5 with an 8.19 ERA, so his demotion was necessary. He won’t keep up the torrid pace, there will be a good correction for him the rest of the season, but he’s better as a spot starter. And, for some reason, I really like his matchup Thursday at the Cubs.

Brad Bergerson, SP, Orioles (4%) Key stats: 17.0 IP, 2 W, 9 K, 1.06 ERA, 0.71 WHIP

• Advice: Dynasty leaguers, gather around for an important announcement. Go get Bergerson now. He’s not going to strike out the world, but the Orioles’ rookie is 3-0 in his last four starts with a 1.69 ERA. the stretch has dropped his average from 5.49 to 3.79. With Luke Scott hitting a homer every other day, and that lineup still primed to heat up, I’d say wins are on the way.

Scott Baker, SP, Twins (52%) Key Stats: 15 IP, 1 W, 13K, 3.06 ERA, 0.67 WHIP

• Advice: Baker was coveted by several owners in two of my leagues this year. I didn’t see why, but I also don’t understand why he’s only owned in 52 percent of leagues now. He’s 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA in his last 4 starts. That includes a 10 K game and an 8 K game. He’s got 62 strikeouts in 74 innings so far this season.

Jason Hammel, SP, Rockies (1%) Key Stats: 11.1 IP, 2 W, 11 K, 2.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

• Advice: He’s not an inning eater, or a master of K. His ERA, WHIP and batting average against tell me he’s playing mindgames. But, he’s 4-0 in his last five starts, including 3 wins in a row and a 3.53 ERA. I wouldn’t play him against a team stacked with mashers, but he appears to have spot-start capabilities.

Sean West, SP, Marlins (8%) Key Stats: 13.2 IP, 2 W, 6 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.80 WHIP

• Advice: A 2005 draft pick, the rookie has five starts this season. In two of his last three West gave up 7 runs in 10 innings. The game in between he pitched 8 innings of shutout ball and struck out 6 San Francisco Giants. Like Bergerson, West is a pickup for dynasty leaguers, but the Marlins lefty will have a more rocky 2009.

What do you think? Is Ross worth a pickup? Why is Baker so available? What players have you targeted? Let us know in the comments, or visit our forums and start a conversation.

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QB

1. Matthew Stafford – Lions: I know I was down on this guy on some earlier comments I made but I really like the idea that they also went out and got Brandon Pettigrew as another target for him. He will be able to use CJ for those deep routes and Brandon for those key third down conversions. The running game isn’t as bad as NFL network says it is. I could see Stafford putting up 3,500 yards and 24 TD’s with the current talent now on this offense. Calvin could be in for a huge year with Stafford’s big arm throwing to him.
2. Josh Freeman – Bucs: I like him more for where he landed than for his actual talent, but even as a Jet fan, early on I have to rank him higher than Mark Sanchez because he has 3 legit receivers in Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow and Derrick Ward out of the backfield. I see him putting up 3,300 yards and 18 TD’s.
3. Mark Sanchez – Jets: He’s a quality QB, just wish he had more talent around him. Jerricho Cotchery is good but the WR2 slot is a big question mark going into the season. Estimate on Sanchez’s numbers with the current roster would be 3,100 yards and 15 TD’s.
4. Pat White – Dolphins: He’s a big drop from the number 3 on this list. He will probably only see the field when the Phins run their 10 plays a game out of the wildcat formation. Don’t see much production from him and I would not even recommend drafting him for fantasy at all.

RB

1. Knowshon Moreno – Broncos: He should get the starting nod in a crowded backfield at this point. Plus he is on a team that will probably need to depend a little more on the run now that Cutler is in the Windy City. Estimated production of 1,300 yards and 8 TD’s year 1.
2. Chris Wells – Cardinals: He could end up handling mostly every carry but the third down carries with this team. I think that limits his yardage production, but the Cards still have a potent offense and will be down near the goal line a lot. I look for Wells to produce 1,000 yards and 9 TD’s year 1.
3. LeSean McCoy – Eagles: Yes I give McCoy the nod here because eventually he becomes the full-time replacement for Westbrook. He has about the same size and playmaking ability as Westy had when he came out from college so he could be a good fit for the Eagles. Look for him to get in those couple of games a year where Westbrook doesn’t start for whatever ailment he is currently having and become the full time starter a few years down the road. 400 yards and 2 TD’s year 1.
4. Donald Brown – Colts: Really don’t like the place where he landed. Now it looks more like the dreaded RBBC may come into play since Addai is already there. If they both get playing time neither of the backs will carry much fantasy value other than as a fill in for bye weeks. 700 yards and 5 TD’s year 1.

WR

1. Jeremy Maclin – Eagles: Gets to go to a team with Donavan McNabb at QB and probably be handed a starting WR position immediately. I look for him to have a similar season to what DeSean Jackson had a year ago for them, 900 yards and 5 TD’s year 1.
2. Hakeem Nicks – Giants: Like his potential especially with Eli Manning still having a fair amount of years left to his career. First year will probably be spent learning the game on the bench while Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith get the starting nods, but look for him to be a receiving force in 2-3 years.
3. Darrius Heyward-Bey – Raiders: Jamarcus Russell has a big arm and can throw deep, question is will Bey catch the ball once it’s there. I think he does OK with the Silver and Black if Russell hones his skills some more. 800 yards 6 TD’s year 1.
4. Brian Robiskie – Browns: Landed on a team that once they settle on a QB should have a decent passing game either way. He meets the need at WR with the whole Donte Stallworth DUI manslaughter incident. I think he beats out Mohammed Massoquoi (see below) and becomes the possession receiver in the attack. Estimate him for about 850 yards and 5 TD’s year 1.
5. Percy Harvin- Vikings: Has playmaking abilities and will be good addition to the team to give them another player besides Peterson that can provide exciting plays. If they only had the QB to throw to him. 750 yards 4 TD’s year 1.
6. Kenny Britt – Titans: Big WR that can get separation from the defenders. He actually was my top WR that I felt had the most potential going into the draft. Just don’t like where he landed. Vince Young figures to be the QB of the future here, and I do not have a lot of faith in his passing abilities as a QB. Great runner/scrambler much in the mold of Vick, but not a great passer. Justin Gage may play a part in limiting him early on. 500 yards 3 TD’s year 1.
7. Micheal Crabtree- 49ers: He comes to a team that currently has Shuan Hill as QB. I just am not sold with all the media hype around this guy. As I stated previously on this site I believe he was a system receiver. His stats where highly overblown because all Texas Tech did the entire game was throw the ball. I think he will be a bust and not last long in the NFL. 400 yards 2 TD’s year 1.
8. Mohammed Massoquoi- Browns: Most likely turns into the slot receiver with Robiskie in the fold. Playing time will be limited for him. 450 yards and 4 TD’s for him.

TE

1. Brandon Pettigrew – Lions: This was an intelligent pick by the Lions and I am shocked they made it. Pettigrew gives them a possession receiver in the passing game along with a blocker in the running game. I think he and Stafford hit it off well and he churns out about 675 yards and 6 TD’s in year 1.
2. Richard Quinn – Broncos: Not sure why they traded up to draft this guy with the last pick of Day 1. Then again the Bronco front office has certainly made some strange moves lately anyway. He only had 12 catches in his entire collegiate career so I don’t think that are looking at his pass catching ability here. I would probably shy away from him as a selection in any fantasy draft as he’s not going to produce much if anything for you receiving wise.

Based on what I see, I would say Matthew Stafford wins the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Comments, suggestions or opinions on Draft Day 1 and this analysis welcome in the comments, or visit Chinstrap Ninjas message boards.

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I am a trade-aholic. I get a rush every time a trade is accepted by both parties. I’ve completed all kinds of trades in the past, with mixed results. Like the alcoholic, I have learned a lot of life lessons from the world of trading in fantasy sports, and since the season is finally here — and everyone will be looking for a competitive edge, I felt it was a good time to share some pointers.

Trade Rule #1: Always look to improve your team. Seems simple enough, but then again, it can be really easy to forget exactly what stats you need if someone dangles one of your favorite players in front of you. If you feel that your team is lacking in speed, then work towards improving team speed. Don’t simply pull the trigger on a deal because you’re bored or because your favorite player is involved — your team’s stat balance is the only thing that really matters.

Trade Rule #2: Know your other league owners. This is much easier if your are in a league with people you know outside of fantasy sports or if you have a live draft. You know the type — the Oakland A’s fan who wears his new Matt Holliday jersey to the draft. Taking note of this could be a crucial move on your part — because there is a good chance the same guy will overpay for Holliday in a trade. I live in central PA, and never mind getting a few Phillies or Eagles on my respective teams, because there are at least one or two diehard Philly fans in each of my leagues. It also pays to know what other teams in your league lack. For example, in one lague, I drafted two solid third basemen (both were too good at their respective draft positions to pass up. After the draft, my first line of business was to find the other teams in the league who were really hurting at third base. In another league, I was stuck using autodraft, and my team wound up with tons of offensive power, but extremely lacking in pitching. I started looking for teams that had a need for solid offensive skill positions and worked on some offers that would net me more talent on the mound.

Trade Rule #3: Water’s wet, the sky’s blue and hitters hit. With the season opening today, watch the stat lines. As games progress through the first week, and eventually the first month, note which hitters seem to be slumping. It happens every year — certain guys are slow out of the gate, and their respective fantasy owners break out in a cold sweat. Suddenly that first, second or third-round pick doesn’t seem as rock-solid as before. This isn’t something that will happen overnight, but as the schedule starts to turn into May games, you may find one or two owners in your league willing to pull the trigger on one of their draft studs who is slacking at the plate. However, baseball isn’t like football. There are 162 games. The season is long. As long as the player you are targeting isn’t dealing with a lingering or severe injury, it may be worth the risk to help pad your stats down the stretch.

Trade Rule #4: The other guy is looking to improve his team, too. It may be hard to avoid throwing out some one-sided trades to league mates, but remember that the other guy is trying to improve, too. Throw too many one-sided deals at the other owners in your league, and they may soon look at you as the trade dude who’s calling wolf. They may never look at one of your trade proposals seriously, regardless of what you are offering. I know this rule well, because I used to be this guy — the one who tried to wear down league owners with a barrage of trades that may not have been totally equal on both sides. Ask yourself the following before offering a deal: “If I was the other owner, would I really accept this dea?”

Trade Rule #5: Time is on your side. If someone in your league offered you a deal and you are uncertain as to what to do, perhaps the best rule of thumb is to not rush the decision. Sleep on it. Take some time to look at stats and get feedback from other trusted fantasy owners. Yes, an owner may be particularly anxious to make a deal and may move on to another owner if you don’t pull the trigger quickly, but then again, if you are that uncertain about the trade, than it may be for the best if the other owner moves on. The only timeline that you need to remember is your league’s trade deadline.

Trade Rule #6: No player is untradeable. Luckily, in fantasy sports, we don’t need to deal with egocentric backlashes a la Jay Cutler. If someone offers you a deal for one of your studs, it may be in your best interest to at least consider the deal and look at counter offers. Yes, having Albert Pujols is great, but if someone offers you a package of really nice players in return — especially ones that plug glaring holes in your lineup, than it may be hard to resist. Typically, the teams with one or two super-studs and a supporting cast of lesser players doesn’t stay as competitive season-long as a team loaded with balanced talent across the board. Yes, Pujols will get you X-number of home runs, X-number of RBI, etc., but improving yourself at a number of other positions may be more beneficial to the big picture of your fantasy team.

Trade Rule #7: It is OK to counter an offer. In fact, it is critical in many cases for both sides to reach a true agreement if both sides know exactly what is needed to complete a deal. I know many people who feel that if someone else “low-balls” them on a trade offer, the best course of reaction is to ignore it and never communicate in return — or to offer a really ridiculous offer in return. However, it is obvious that the other owner has an interest in certain guys on your roster. Why not offer something realistic back — targeting the people on his roster that you would really like? It can’t hurt, and it may actually help lead to a compromise that nets you some really solid talent.

Trade Rule #8: Watch the injury reports, transactions lists. being one step ahead of your league mates is always a good practice. If you notice that a certain player is injured, and feel that the injury may not be a season-threatening or overall stat-threatening (like a leg injury on your primary source of steals), than it may not hurt to throw out an offer for an injured player — especially if you can snag that player for a couple of your bench warmers. A different example includes position battle injuries. For example, perhaps you see that Kevin Gregg, current Cubs closer, is hit with an injury and will miss some time. Throwing out a deal for Carlos Marmol, who will take the closers role, may not be a bad thing. There are plenty of times that closers, especially, take advantage of some playing time and ultimately find themselves the long-term player at that position. Another thing to watch with transactions lists are which rookies may be called up. There are a rash of talented young rookies who will be seeing major league playing time during the next several months. Figure out which ones are in the best position to rake in some stats when they do reach the big time, and snag them from other teams as you have the resources and bench space — especially if you notice the call-up before others in your league.

Trade Rule #9: Evaluate other trades. Don’t just look at other trades in your league, but go places where people announce their trades and try to get evaluations either before or after the trade. What things seemed to work? Look for trends that may help you in your own league. We will be evaluating on our main board a number of trades throughout the season here at chinstrapninjas.com — so be sure to keep checking back. Another resource is the fantasybaseballcafe, which has a thread devoted to trade analysis. Watch not only what trades are offered and which ones seem to work for both sides, but also what others say about the trade.

Trade Rule #10: Get trusted feedback on a trade before pulling the trigger. Again, time is on your side, so take the time to do it right. Identify several people who you respect in fantasy baseball and ask their advice on certain trades before you complete the deal. Sometimes, it is easy to be blinded by a player bias, and fall into a trap where you are losing more talent in a deal than you’re gaining. The more people you get feedback from, the better the chances that you’ll get a good feel of whether or not a certain trade is in your best interest. We, here at chinstrap ninjas, are offering our services to evaluate your trades as they come up. Feel free to e-mail myself or ep with any questions, and we’ll share our feedback with the rest of our readers as a way for us all to grow as a community and become better traders.

What advice do you follow when considering a fantasy trade? What was your best-ever trade in fantasy baseball? What have you learned from any bad trades you may have made in the past? We’d love to hear your stories!

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Now TJ has flown the coop, and will be primary guy in Seattle. What does this mean for his fantasy stock …

Factoring in that Carson Palmer was not under center most of the season, and that TJ was relying on unproven Ryan Fitzpatrick to deliver the pigskin, TJ’s numbers last season could be considered a fluke. He finished with 904 yards receiving after two seasons of well over 1,000. He finished with just four touchdowns, the lowest since he notched just four in 2004. Houshmandzadeh finished with his lowest yards per game (60.3) since 2002. However, he averaged 4.1 yards after the catch, easily better than the 3.8 and 3.3 he averaged during his best two seasons (2006, 2007 respectively). This means that when he did get the ball, he was able to perform just fine — but that many of his catches were short dump receptions vs. down-the-field scoring opportunities that he, and his fantasy owners, enjoyed in years past.

All this again points back to the QB woes, along with a lackluster running game.

Now in Seattle, how are those situations different? Instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick as TJ’s only lifeline to the football, it will be Matt Hasselbeck under center. Hasselbeck isn’t a spring chicken anymore, but at 33 years old, should still have some good seasons left in him. Of course, he is coming off arguably his worst NFL season ever. He earned just a 57.8 QB rating (his next lowest was a 70.9 mark in 2001 — his first season in Seattle). In 2008, he played in just seven games after injuries riddled his playing time. Of his 209 passes attempted, just 109 were completed, leaving him with just a 52.2 completion percentage, also a career low. A year after scoring 28 touchdowns in 16 games, he notched just five in seven games.

So, outside of the injuries, were there any other factors affecting Hasselbeck’s play last year? Can you simply shrug it off to a rash of receiver injuries and having no real reliable target to throw to?

Also, what about the Seattle running game? It was atrocious at times last year. What is different about this season? Julius Jones is still there, but Maurice Morris is not. Will the O-line create enough of a pocket for Hasselbeck to work? Is he past the injury concerns?

If Hasselbeck does miss time, is Seneca Wallace the answer? Is he really much better than Ryan Fitzpatrick?

The bottom line is that with Seattle, there are tons of unanswered questions. TJ has the size and skill set to produce most anywhere if given the opportunity. However, a year after what turned out to be a statistical mess with the Seahawks offense, how will TJ truly fare? Based on his intangibles alone, TJ should be considered a WR2 in most fantasy leagues. With all the questions surrounding his situation, you might be able to snag him cheap in fantasy drafts. If everything comes together in Seattle, Houshmandzadeh could produce some juicy numbers for his fantasy owners — just be sure to temper expectations for now.

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