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The fantasy football ADP top 20 and 20 reasons why you should follow ADP

ep — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 23:01:33 +0000

Let’s get the belligerence out of the way right now. This is a response to a previous article where I gave you 20 reasons to not follow the ADP top 20.

Should you blindly follow every word said about every player in these lists? Absolutely not. But every sentiment is worth noting. Even players in the top 20 have pros and cons like those high-risk sleepers you covet.

They are more likely to make the pros stand up, that’s why they are in the top 20. And that’s what this list is all about. Let’s gush about the best-of-the-best in fantasy football this preseason.

The ADP Top 20*

*The ADP from July 11 is being used so the list coincides exactly with the earlier top 20. Current ADP from July 26 is included and the one player change is noted at the bottom.

1. Chris Johnson (ADP: 1.11, current: 1.15) — Did you see him in 2009? What more is there to say. You could argue that he’s the most talented running back to carry the ball since Barry Sanders. And know that a passing attack led by Vince Young isn’t going to steal too many touches from him.

2. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 1.98, current: 1.95) — If Chris Johnson is 1A, Adrian Peterson should be 1B. He’s got elite explosiveness and will be asked to carry the ball a lot. Brett Favre’s decision shouldn’t weigh heavily on Peterson owners. As his statistics in 2008 and 2009 show, he is dominant regardless of the signal caller.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: 3.13, current: 3.14) — What happens when defenses start double-covering budding superstar Mike Sims-Walker? Less defenders to fill the gaps and cover MJD in the flats. Can you say monster season?

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3.99, current: 3.94) — If all you focus on is what Rice might lose to Boldin in the passing game, you’re missing the point. Boldin’s success opens up the flats and the running lanes for Rice, who should accumulate more yards and more TDs despite fewer touches.

5. Frank Gore (ADP: 5.10, current: 5.26) — As the San Francisco offense takes off, Gore will be in the captain’s chair. Gore doesn’t need a lot of touches to rack up big fantasy points, he just needs healthy touches. Sharing with Glen Coffee and Anthony Dixon could mean more meaningful carries for Gore late in games and late in your fantasy playoffs.

6. Michael Turner (ADP: 6.11, current: 6.16) — Yeah, he wasn’t as fantastic in 2009 and got hurt, but his body of work while healthy was just as dominant as the 2008 Michael Turner. He played in only eight full games but rushed for 871 and 10 TDs. A full offseason of rest and recuperation could mean big things for Turner and his quarterback, Matt Ryan.

7. Andre Johnson (ADP: 6.94, current: 6.98) — With the emergence of Jacoby Jones and the return of Owen Daniels, teams won’t be able to devise defense to stop AJ every play. Even if they do, it’ll just mean we’ll have to settle for a third-straight 1,500-yard season.

8. Steven Jackson (ADP: 8.30, current: 8.36) — With a rookie quarterback likely ready to take the helm in St. Louis, the team’s offensive focus will remain on Steven Jackson, who averaged 103 yards a carry in his first 10 games in 2009. Despite the Rams inability to do anything else offensively, and their defense’s inability to stop anyone, Jackson still finished with more than 1,400 yards rushing. An encore with a couple more TDs could make him a top 5 player.

9. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 9.44, current: 9.32) — Rodgers was sacked 50 times last season, tied for the most in the NFL. The Packers responded by drafting two OTs in April’s draft. Other than that upgrade, nothing has changed in Green Bay. Yes, Rodgers can be even better in 2010.

10. Rashard Mendenhall (ADP: 10.23, current: 10.49) — He wasn’t even a factor until Week 4, but Mendenhall still rushed for more than 1,100 yards and seven TDs. I was even told recently that Mendenhall could take third-down duties, and after his 25 catches and 261 yards with one score in 2009, who could argue.

11. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 11.50, current: 11.70) — Fitzgerald is one of the most talented receivers in the game. If I was out there tripping over my hobbit feet and lobbing ducks, Fitzgerald would still get 85-1,200-6. If Matt Leinart breaks out, Fitzgerald will reclaim his crown as the top WR in the land.

12. Drew Brees (ADP: 12.34, current: 12.08) — Brees has thrown for more than 4,400 yards in four consecutive seasons and has thrown at least 26 TDs in five of the last six. I know what I said about Rodgers a couple paragraphs ago, but there is no better or more consistent QB in fantasy than Drew Brees.

13. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: 13.16, current: 13.34) — Rushed for 1,117 yards and seven TDs despite missing the final two games of the season. Let’s say he plays second fiddle to Jonathan Stewart this season, as unlikely as it is. Stewart rushed for 1,133 yards and 11 TDs as the No. 2 running back in Carolina in 2010.

14. Shonn Greene (ADP: 14.10, current: 14.44) — Behind that Jets offensive line all season, Greene might never give LaDainian Tomlinson a chance at his second chance in New York.

15. Randy Moss (ADP: 14.50, current: 14.44) — Last season, “old” Randy Moss scored the second most touchdowns, the second most yards and the second most receptions in any season since leaving Minnesota six years ago. How is that slowing down?

16. Ryan Mathews (ADP: 16.42, current: 16.55) — Did you see what LaDainian Tomlinson did for years as the superstar back for the Chargers? Refresher: Six consecutive seasons with 15 or more combined TDs, double-digit TDs in every season and the single-season TD record; a run of more than 1,400 yards in five of six seasons. Who’s going steal touches from Mathews? Darren Sproles?

17. Reggie Wayne (ADP: 17.66, current: 17.44) — In 2009, the “soon-to-be-replaced-by-Gonzalez-Collie-Garcon” Wayne had the second-most receptions of his career, the third-highest yardage total and tied for his second-highest TD total. Let’s not scream “decline!” at the top of our lungs until, y’know, there is even a sign of decline.

18. Cedric Benson (ADP: 17.95, current: 18.67) — Read in a couple places that we shouldn’t be surprised when his most recent spat with the law gets tossed out. In 2009, he had more than 1,300 total yards, six 100-yard games and six TDs. Oh, that’s right he also only started 12 games and only played in 13.

19. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 18.91, current: 18.84) — Take a deep breath Megatron fans. He missed two full games because of injury, had a rookie signal caller under center and still finished with 984 yards and five TDs. Don’t be surprised when Tony Scheffler and Jahvid Best soften defenses a little for Johnson.

20. Ryan Grant (ADP: 20.53, current 21.00) — Grant scored 10 or more fantasy points (non-PPR) in 12 of 16 games last season. He finished with a career high 1,253 yards rushing, a career-high 197 yards receiving and a career-high 11 TDs. It’s only his third season and he’ll be 27 for most of this season. It’s easy math, but I’ll say it anyway, Grant should set career highs again in 2010.

21. Miles Austin (Current ADP: 20.82) — Austin surpassed Grant in recent drafts, and it’s not difficult to see why. As great as Austin was last season, don’t forget that he didn’t break out until Week 5. Let’s say the Cowboys used him better in the first four weeks and he averaged a pessimistic 70 yards per game and an extra TD every other game, that would have given him 13 TDs and 1,600 yards. For reference, Andre Johnson — considered to be the top fantasy WR in 2010 — had just 1,569 yards and 9 scores in 2009.

So, where do you stand on the ADP top 20? Let us know in the comments.

2010 fantasy football redraft rankings: Wide receivers

jzak — Sun, 25 Jul 2010 04:41:20 +0000

Once upon a time, wide receivers were as exciting in fantasy circles as a rubber band. But the world just keeps evolving. The realm of rubber bands have been revolutionized by the silly band. Similarly, in fantasy football, receivers have become all the rage.

And rightfully so. With the emergence of running backs by committee, fantasy football has evolved yet again, leaving the rest of us to either adapt or suffer the consequences.

Factoring in a slew of new up-and-coming receiving talents, here are my 2010 wide receiver redraft rankings:

1. Andre Johnson, HOU. His age, size, speed and overall skill set make him a nightmare to cover and the top target in an excessively pass-happy offense that will see plenty of shootouts throughout the season.

2. Randy Moss, NE. Remember, this isn’t a dynasty ranking. Moss always plays better when he has something to prove. When he has a chip on his shoulder. When he’s playing for his next contract. He has all three going for him in 2010, and will see ample targets as the Patriots attempt one last hurrah before a potential changing of the guard. Moss will have an elite 2010. After that is anyone’s guess.

3. Roddy White, ATL. Shocked? Don’t be. Just look at Roddy’s consistency the past three seasons … even last year when Matt Ryan faced some growing pains. Ryan will rise from the ashes of his sophomore disappointment to post solid numbers, with Roddy White benefactor 1A.

4. Reggie Wayne, IND. Only certainties in life are death, taxes and that Reggie Wayne will post elite receiver stats. A bit of a logjam for the Colts passing game with the return of Anthony Gonzalez and a small decrease in stats across the second half of last season leave me ranking Wayne here, but he could easily finish as the top fantasy receiver this season, too.

5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI. Only uncertainty here begins and ends with the quarterback. Sure, the loss of Kurt Warner will likely affect Fitz’s numbers – slightly. I do think that Matt Leinart will need a big reliable receiver much like an infant relies on a favorite blankey or binky.

6. Calvin Johnson, DET. The Lions will be playing from behind plenty this season. Calvin and Matthew Stafford started showing signs of developed chemistry as the season wore on last year. The addition of Nate Burleson will help keep defenses from gang-covering Johnson. This all means a resurgence for the talented young pass catcher.

7. Miles Austin, DAL. Plenty of people are very high on Austin. I’m totally on the fence. Hard to get uber-excited just yet over a receiver who hasn’t proven his worth for an extended amount of time. Also curious to see how things are divvied out to an offense that gained an elite rookie receiver in Dez Bryant and promoted backfield receiving option Felix Jones to top dog running back.

8. Greg Jennings, GB. Coming off a down season by most people’s standards, Jennings was affected more by a slipshod O-line and Aaron Rodgers’ scramble for his life. Look at his stats later in the season when the O-line solidified a little. This season, Green Bay’s line is much improved. Jennings numbers will follow suit.

9. DeSean Jackson, PHI. If you haven’t read Larry Fitzgerald’s capsule above, do so now. Then insert Donovan McNabb into Kurt Warner’s slot and Kevin Kolb’s name in for Matt Leinart. Except Jackson isn’t as talented as Larry Fitz, hence the lower ranking here.

10. Brandon Marshall, MIA. If Marshall can make Kyle Orton look semi-legitimate, imagine what he can do with a young, talented Chad Henne? Offseason hip surgery may hamper him somewhat this summer and may affect his early season a tad, but Marshall is talented enough to net you plenty a fantasy point. If only he was more stable off the field.

11. Sidney Rice, MIN. Value is tied directly into Brett Favre’s impending return to the Vikings. If Favre somehow zigs when we all expect him to zag, like I suggest he should here, than Rice’s value plummets.

12. Vincent Jackson, SD. A super-talented young receiver with a history, lately, of being a knucklehead. Where have I heard this before? If he stays in San Diego and avoids suspensions or other sanctions, Jackson has the potential to move up this list at will. Question marks keep him here for the time being.

13. Steve Smith, CAR. A flag football injury won’t affect Smith’s 2010 regular season, according to various reports. Smith had a down 2009 due largely to ineffective QB play from Jake Delhomme. His stats saw a nice rebound when Matt Moore took over. Moore should start the season as the Panthers’ starter, and even if Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike see some reps, Smith is going to see his share of receptions.

14. Marques Colston, NO. I’ve never personally been a fan of Colston in terms of fantasy potential, but it is hard to argue his place in one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league. The emergence of Robert Meachem will open even more routes for Colston, and while you may need to suffer through a down game here and there, Colston should provide some solid outings the rest of the time.

15. Anquan Boldin, BAL. Bringing a whole new dimension to Baltimore, it will be interesting to see how the Ravens incorporate their new top receiver into an offense known for rushing more than anything through the air. Boldin has been questionable at times during the latter half of the season and has seen his share of injuries … however, a more balanced offensive attack will keep the pressure off Boldin’s shoulders and could lead to a nice rebound season.

16. Michael Crabtree, SF. Showed plenty of upside last season despite missing time early in the campaign. With a full preseason to work with Alex Smith and a solid running game keeping defenses honest, Crabtree should continue to climb these standings this season.

17. Mike Sims-Walker, JAX. Separated himself from the rest of the pack as the true WR1 in Jacksonville and benefits from defenses spending so much of their resources trying to stop Maurice Jones-Drew. It would be exciting to see what Sims-Walker could do with a more reliable QB under center.

18. Chad Ochocinco, CIN. How the elite have fallen in places. No. 85 is still flashing his gold teeth in the league, and will still likely sit atop the receptions pile in Cincinnati. The addition of Antonio Bryant should help give Ochocinco some breathing room. A bounce-back 2010 is a good possibility.

19. Hines Ward/Mike Wallace. Breaking the rules on this one, I know. However, as sweet as Mike Wallace looked last season in spells, it is hard for me to envision him as the definite top pass catching option with Hines Ward still playing. Byron Leftwich will be looking for reliability when he wings out a pass in place of the suspended Ben Roethlisberger, and Hines Ward is about as reliable as one could expect. In dynasty leagues, I’d want Mike Wallace hands-down out of the two. In redrafts, I really don’t know. Guess I’d lean on Ward’s side for this season, especially in PPR formats.

20. Steve Smith, NYG. Was a nice surprise for people who chose to grab him and stick with it. His receptions are plenty nice in PPR formats and he is the official No. 1 wideout in Giantsland at the moment.

21. Wes Welker, NE. A lot higher than most sites have Welker, but then again, most of those sites had rankings out before Welker’s near-miraculous recovery (so far) from a torn ACL and MCL. Watch his progress this summer. If he continues to improve at a rapid pace and finds himself starting fairly quickly into the regular season, than you’ve gotten yourself a bargain … especially in PPR formats.

22. Dwayne Bowe, KC. I’m never a fan of knuckleheads on my team, and Bowe is definitely one of those. After a suspension due to drugs last year, he reported that the Chiefs were supplying women to players on road trips. Can’t imagine that will help his stock on Sundays. The Chiefs need a reliable passing game if they want to take the next step forward as a franchise, and Bowe definitely has the skill set to produce. Just tread carefully.

23. Pierre Garcon, IND. Sure the Colts have a logjam of receiving talent, but Garcon has proven to be the official No. 2 WR in a Peyton Manning offense.

24. Hakeem Nicks, NYG. Second Giants receiver in a very short period of ranking? Am I nuts? Yes, but that isn’t the point. Reports from New York state that the battle between Nicks and Mario Manningham will be fast and furious for the No. 2 WR slot. Methinks that Nicks’ battle will be moreso for the top wideout spot by midseason.

25. TJ Houshmanzadeh, SEA. Someone has to catch passes in an offense that will habitually be playing catchup. Golden Tate is a rookie receiver, meaning he’ll likely be a factor moreso next year or the season after. Housh is falling far enough on enough boards to be considered a mild value pick. Just don’t reach for him.

26. Percy Harvin, MIN. Provided Brett Favre comes back to Vikingsland, Harvin should continue to mature in his second season. His skillset allows him to be involved in the offense in various ways, upping his staying power. Lingering headache issues could pose a problem at some point.

27. Robert Meachem, NO. Have to admit that I wasn’t really in-tune with Meachem until I saw him dropped in a dynasty league I’m in. Reports from all angles are super favorable for Meachem, who was a TD beast as the season wore on. There are some who think Meachem will leapfrog Marques Colston in New Orleans at some point this season. However, even as a No. 2 in a Drew Brees offense, Meachem has definite value.

28. Donald Driver, GB. I’m a Packers fan, but I’m not super-high on Driver this season. Notice how the roles shifted last season as the Packers O-line finally solidified. Driver will find himself in a more Wes Welkerian role … which helps him bounce up this list more than I would have liked.

29. Santonio Holmes, NYJ. The early-season suspension doesn’t exactly help his fantasy stock, but Holmes has the talent to help sophomore QB Mark Sanchez take the next step in his pro career. Considering that the Jets are a run-first club, Holmes will have some consistency issues at times … but at least defensive pressure will likely be focused more on Shonn Greene and LaDanian Tomlinson than the passing game.

30. Devin Aromashodu/Johnny Knox/Devin Hester, CHI. Cheating again here a little. Whoever emerges from this mass of receivers as the main option for Jay Cutler in a Mike Martz offense will catapult himself up this list quicker than the Roadrunner zips past Wile E. Coyote. However, reports from Chicago are so back-and-forth, it is nearly impossible at this point to determine who will rise to the top. So, in most leagues that are drafting around this time, you’re stuck drafting all three in hopes you hit the lottery, not that second place will be a bad option, either, in this offense.

Other receivers of note:

Kenny Britt will find himself as the top dog in the Tennessee passing game at some point this season. I’m just not that excited about Vince Young’s style of play in terms of being able to consistently feed the ball to Britt.

Steve Breaston and Early Doucet will play opposite Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Questions at QB make things a little muddy, and while Breaston has the early lead in terms of the WR2 job, Doucet’s size and skillset are arguably better than Breaston. Perhaps a late-round sleeper if you need one.

Many will be focused on rookie receivers Damaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, and even Eddie Royal, in Denver to give due credit to Jabar Gaffney. However, when push came to shove the end of last season, Gaffney was the one who did his job the best. If Gaffney holds off the competition for primary replacement to Brandon Marshall, he’ll be a nice sleeper pick in the late rounds.

Whoever winds up the WR2 in Houston could see a nice uptick in value. Kevin Walter’s hold on the spot is tenuous, as Jacoby Jones makes a play for the spot. Stay tuned.

With a possible suspension looming for Santana Moss, and his aging skillset, this is the year that Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly need to start earning their paychecks. Either could be a sleeper in a Donovan McNabb offense, just not sure who will emerge.

Julian Edelman was a highly sought value player so far this summer in fantasy circles, but the quick recovery by Wes Welker will directly affect Edelman’s value for this season, since they’re from the same mold. If Welker has a setback, and considering his injuries, that is highly possible, Edelman is a sneaky nice add.

Make sure you check out our early dynasty wide receiver rankings, along with other 2010 redraft rankings at quarterback and tight end.

What do your redraft receiver rankings look like? Want to debate mine? We’d love to hear about it in the comments below.

AFC East: The preseason preview

Jay-Mo — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 19:55:44 +0000

Like a weekly lunch buffet special, the NFL preseason will give you plenty to chew on. To whet our appetites, here is a brief outline of what to watch for in the coming weeks. Reason, well there’s value in paying attention to the preseason and training camp battles. If not, you may become last year’s fantasy owner who drafted Donald Brown and Darrius Heyward-Bey and overlooked Ray Rice and Miles Austin.

Today let’s take a look at the AFC East’s Bills, Dolphins, Jets and Patriots:

Buffalo Bills

To QB or not to QB? It may be more effective for the Bills to run a triple-option attack with C.J. Spiller or Marshawn Lynch running the show. However, that’s not going to happen and Buffalo has to have a QB. Odds are Trent Edwards comes out the No. 1 guy, but we’ll get a chance to see plenty of snaps from Brian Brohm and Ryan Fitzpatrick, even rookie Levi Brown. You never know when you may be faced with a waiver wire pick up involving these guys, better to know at least a little background, eh?
Spilling over with talent Buffalo has to score somehow, so it figures to come from this position as it’s the deepest on the team with Fred Jackson, Lynch and Spiller. I believe you’d be hard-pressed to find a team position battle anywhere in the NFL this preseason with more fantasy value outside the Bills backfield. Who impresses the most will get the carries and check down receptions many NFL RBs won’t get. Only drawback; the Bills won’t have many scoring opportunities.
Witness protection program Can anyone honestly name a Bills TE? Well, I’m guessing we can learn at least if we pay attention this preseason. There’s going to be a new offense, so maybe the TE will play bigger part? Wouldn’t it be great if we had a head start on who may be Buffalo’s No. 2 or No. 3 go-to guy in the red zone? If he impresses enough, the TE may turn into the No. 1 target.

Miami Dolphins

Marshall Law It’s no secret Brandon Marshall will have a major impact on the Fins’ offense and Chad Henne’s development. But more importantly is who will be Marshall’s right-hand man? Davone Bess has seemed to be the logical choice, but Brian Hartline, who has more speed, has continued to impress and may move up the depth chart. This preseason will be the proving ground for that coveted spot opposite the double-coverage magnet.
Age or Injury? For the past, well since Dan Marino has retired, the Fins have made their living on the ground. In recent years, they have been one of the best at it thanks to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. However, time is running out. Brown can’t seem to stay healthy (and is in the final year of his contract), and Williams will be a young 33 this season. I’m sure neither will get much work in the preseason, as Miami takes a closer look at the other candidates for the backfield, who may be needed sooner than later so pay attention.
Taming the Wildcat Despite its overall ineffectiveness, the Wildcat made famous two years ago has been Miami’s legacy and a stupid fad in the NFL. What was born out of necessity due to lack of offense and weak QB play, Miami pretty much avoided it late last season as Henne progressed. Ironically, Miami lost just about all of those games but not for lack of offense. As Henne continues to improve and the Fins offense develops more traditional home run hitters (insert Marshall), the Wildcat will be left to NFL films. However, it should be noted to watch how the Fins use the formation this preseason. Of all the teams that run it, Miami does it the best, so anything new unveiled in preseason may be seen in a NFL city near you.

New York Jets

Playing for pay Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes are heading into the final years of their respective deals, so expect both to be focused to perform at their highest levels. While Edwards gets a four-game advantage this season, Holmes still has the preseason to show his stuff. This will give us clue whether Holmes will be ready when he returns from suspension or continue to be lost in a new system and rotation.
A little Greene in the legs There is little doubt Shonn Greene will be the lead horse and in position to get tons of carries, but I’m guessing the Jets will miss Thomas Jones a lot more than they realize. These next several weeks will set the stage for us to see how LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight will be used.
Pressurized Camp Despite the fact preseason games don’t count it will be key to see how these paper champions handle the pressure now thrust on them. If the Jets look sluggish and rattled, it’s safe to say they won’t fair well against Baltimore, New England, Miami and Minnesota in the first five weeks of the season.

New England Patriots

A raw battle The Pats will be looking for another third down/red zone target with Wes Welker’s health a concern and Randy Moss’s commitment/energy just as unpredictable for this season. TE will be one area, as evidence by the team investing two draft picks on the position. The battle, waged this preseason, features one rookie who didn’t play at all last year and another who was a product of the dreaded spread offense. Let’s see who makes the most of their time on the field this preseason, Rob Gronkowki (back injury) or Aaron Hernandez (Tim Tebow’s main squeeze).
Growing Moss? Doesn’t 2007 seem like a decade ago? Moss, 33, still put up great numbers the past two years but has seemed less dominating with each passing game. Doubt we’ll see much of Moss in the preseason, but we will get plenty of looks at Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman and Sam Aiken, even raw rookie Taylor Price. As noted above, Tom Brady will be searching for a new security blanket, and it could very well come from this group.
Running is overrated New England has really bucked sacred NFL theology and put together a dynasty run without a dominating, even consistent, running game. How many times do we need to draft Laurence Maroney before we realize he nor any Pats running back is a reliable fantasy option. Well, somebody has to line up at running back and get some carries and the occasional check down pass. Lets hope this preseason sheds some light on who Bill Belichick may hang his hoody on.

Jay-Mo’s other preseason previews:

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West

NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

2010 Fantasy Football ADP Top 20 (and 20 reasons why you will not win if you follow ADP)

ep — Sun, 11 Jul 2010 17:09:26 +0000

You are not sheep, ninjas.

Just because a player is supposed to be drafted in the top 10 doesn’t mean they should. No player in fantasy football is without flaws.

With our help, and the help of hundreds of other sites out there, it’s your duty as a member of the Ninja Army to weed out the players not fit for their draft slot.

Be the wolves. Harvest the sheep.

With that thought in mind, sharpen your weapons with these 20 reasons why you should not pick the players in the average draft position top 20:

1. Chris Johnson (ADP: 1.11) — If his 2009 workload wasn’t enough to concern you, his holdout should.

2. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 1.98) — There isn’t a cell in my body that would be surprised if he fumbles it at the goal line Week 1 and Toby Gerhart goes on to score double-digit TDs.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: 3.13) — He’s the only player in the top 5 that doesn’t have questions. We’d call him a safe pick if it was 2009. But after 2009′s All-Safe Team debacle, I’ll refrain. He’s my No. 1, but we could look back next season and talk about the lack of support, an ineffective QB and MJD’s workload as his reasons for disappointing.

4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3.99) — Two words: Anquan Boldin. Not only will the Ravens throw more, but they’ll throw less to Ray Rice. Take away 20 catches and 200 yards from his 2009 numbers and Ray Rice is not a top five pick. Don’t forget that Joe Flacco is another year into the system and has two rookie tight ends who will get some work as well.

5. Frank Gore (ADP: 5.10) — All indications point to him being a rockstar again, however, Gore will get hurt again. … Or, maybe the 49ers will use both Anthony Dixon and Glen Coffee in a committee to keep Gore from getting hurt.

6. Michael Turner (ADP: 6.11) — One great season, one disappointing season and Michael Turner is still in the top 6 because he’s “in better shape” this year? Wasn’t Ron Dayne “in the best shape of his life” every offseason?

7. Andre Johnson (ADP: 6.94) — Show of hands, who thinks Matt Schaub is going to stay healthy AND lead the NFL in passing yards again?

8. Steven Jackson (ADP: 8.30) — Yes, it is possible for him to score less touchdowns than he did last season. Quit fooling yourself.

9. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 9.44) — Sacked 50 times in 2009. That’s not healthy.

10. Rashard Mendenhall (ADP: 10.23) — Remember when he was in the doghouse early in 2009? I’d bet that’s what Pittsburgh remembered when they drafted Jonathan Dwyer.

11. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 11.50) — Fitz’s ranking should reflect the number of passes Kurt Warner will be able to complete from his couch.

12. Drew Brees (ADP: 12.34) — There is no way the Saints defense will be as dominant this year, that means a slightly more conservative Saints offense.

13. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: 13.16) — Base Williams’ ranking on the number of yards and TDs Jonathan Stewart will steal in 2010.

14. Shonn Greene (ADP: 14.10) — The young back will be pulled for LaDainian Tomlinson — who has a nose for the end zone — at the goal line. Mark Sanchez’s maturation and the arrival of Santonio Holmes means less running and more passing.

15. Randy Moss (ADP: 14.50) — At 33, age will soon become a factor for Moss, who relies on his speed considerably. Also, is that Tom Brady character going to be right in 2010? The ADP top 20 sure doesn’t think so.

16. Ryan Mathews (ADP: 16.42) — Drafters love them some rookies. Hope you love a two-down back who will share carries with Darren Sproles.

17. Reggie Wayne (ADP: 17.66) — Well, jzak already said you should trade high on Wayne.

18. Cedric Benson (ADP: 17.95) — Google “Cedric Benson arrest” and you get 299,000 hits. Google “Cedric Benson” and you only get 638,000. That is not a good news to bad news ratio.

19. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 18.91) — Did you see his 2009 numbers? He had seven less TDs and 400 less yards from 2008 to 2009 on only 11 less catches. Even if you’re not good at math, you can tell those numbers don’t add up.

20. Ryan Grant (ADP: 20.53) — One of our Ninjas, Jay-Mo dealt Ryan Grant in a dynasty league after last season, Grant’s best as a pro. Jay-Mo doesn’t think Grant, 27, has more than two years left in the NFL. Grant also has to contend with Aaron Rodgers chucking the ball all over the field.

——————————————————–

Obviously, every player on this list needs to be drafted regardless of the reasons presented. There are plenty of good reasons why we should draft them. Just remember, before you develop tunnel vision on any one player, that every one of them has the potential to bust.

2010 AFC East divisional preview

sockonfl — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 21:29:11 +0000

A look at the fantasy relevant players in the AFC East in 2010:

New England Patriots

Quarterback

Tom Brady: He is still one of the best in the business at his position. Many people feel he had a disappointing season last year. That’s only because it was not realistic to expect another 50 TD season. Those are once in a career seasons. Brady still posted his second best fantasy season of his career despite the fact he started the year slowly as he was still getting used to moving around on his previously injured knee. He is still a top 5 QB without a doubt.

Running back

Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk: The ultimate RBBC is in New England. For how much these carries are spread out among the 4 of them, I am not sure any of them are really fantasy relevant. Based on the past I would expect them to use mostly Taylor on the early downs and Faulk on third and passing downs. They should solely be used in your fantasy lineup in case of injury only.

Wide receiver

Randy Moss: Moss still posted a decent season last year despite playing with a separated shoulder for most of the season. I give him a lot of credit for playing through the pain for the first time in his career for the benefit of the team. Randy is in the final year of his deal with New England and rumor has it he will not be resigned by the Patriots. Look for Randy to put his best effort forth and have a big 2010 season as he realizes this may be his final shot at achieving that elusive championship ring.

Wes Welker/Julian Edelman: I put these 2 in the same category because they are pretty much interchangeable in the Patriot slot receiver position. Edelman should see a lot of the action early on during the season while Welker recovers from his injured knee. Welker will resume his starting role though once the doctors give him a clean bill of health again. If you have these 2 both on your fantasy roster you will have a stud PPR receiver on your hands.

Brandon Tate/Torry Holt/Taylor Price: Tom Brady has said that Tate has improved a tremendous amount over his rookie season. Torry Holt showed last year that his knees prevent him from being anywhere near the threat he once was. Taylor Price is a promising rookie but will be overmatched by Tate’s extra year of NFL experience. I believe Brandon Tate will start as the third receiver in New England in 2010 although he still won’t be a major fantasy factor just yet.

Tight end

Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez: The Patriots addressed an area of weakness in the offense in the 2010 draft here. Either Gronkowski or Hernandez could emerge as a decent red zone threat as Brady seems to find the TE a lot in the red zone. I would use either of these guys as a bye week filler only.

Kicker

Stephen Gostkowski: Gostkowski should be a top 5 fantasy kicker in 2010.

Defense/Special teams

The New England defense I would project to finish in the middle of the pack for fantasy points in 2010.

New York Jets

Quarterback

Mark Sanchez: Looks like the Jets may have a decent developing QB in Sanchez. He seemed to mature as a player the longer the season progressed. After only playing a season and change in college he played about as well as one could expect him to play. His continued maturation is the key to getting the Jets over the hump and being legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Running back

Shonn Greene: Greene showed down the stretch of the season and once again in the playoffs that he can handle the bulk of the carries for the team. He is a power runner that puts me to the mind of Michael Turner. He should be a force behind that awesome offensive line that the Jets have put together.

LaDainian Tomlinson: LT2 comes in to serve as a complimentary back and most likely play on most receiving down situations. I am not sure he has much left in the tank after his dismal 3.3 YPC season a year ago. He still remains a force down by the goal line however.

Joe McKnight: The rookie McKnight might be sprinkled in on a few running plays, but look for Greene and LT2 to get the bulk of the work in 2010.

Wide receiver

Braylon Edwards: Edwards played well in spurts during the course of the 2009 season with the Jets. The Jet brass hopes that he returns to the form he had with Cleveland the year he posted 16 receiving TD’s.

Santonio Holmes/Jerricho Cotchery: The Jets made a big splash acquiring Holmes from Pittsburgh in the offseason. Santonio figures to challenge or even surpass Edwards as the number 1 target in New York once he serves his four game suspension. In the meantime, Jerricho Cotchery is a nice possession type receiver in the offense. He has found a niche with Sanchez and plays well together with him.

Tight end

Dustin Keller: Keller was another spurty type player in 2009. Some of that can be attributed to inconsistent QB play in Sanchez’s rookie season. Once Sanchez matures, Keller may become one of the better TE options in the league. Do you hear that all you dynasty league owners?

Kicker

Nick Folk: Currently Folk holds down the position but that is simply by default because everyone else has been worse than him. Even Folk has not kicked well in OTA’s and minicamps so far. This position could be addressed with a signing of another player before the season begins. Jay Feely was a top 10 fantasy kicker last year and the one that settles here could figure to fall in that same category if he can make all the necessary field goal attempts. This is an area of concern right now for Rex Ryan.

Defense/Special team

The Jets defense only got stronger in the offseason and figures to be the most dominating unit in 2010.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback

Chad Henne: Henne is one of my personal favorites that I believe will be a solid NFL QB now that he has some quality targets to throw the ball to. I can remember too many times how he led last minute drives to beat my Penn State Nittany Lions several times in his career. Now he is still the QB of the arch nemesis Miami Dolphins. What irony?

Running back

Ronnie Brown: I am not sure how many times I have to say this about Ronnie Brown. He is a fantasy stud for part of the season and then gets injured and misses the remainder of the season. Seriously, I cannot remember this guy being the lead dog RB for this team for a full season ever. Ride him early on in the season, but at some point, make a move to acquire Ricky Williams.

Ricky Williams: Ricky played admirably well in place of Brown later in the season. He is a nice back to stash away for the fantasy playoff run.

Wide receiver

Brandon Marshall: Despite hip surgery this offseason, Marshall figures to play a prominent role in returning the Dolphin passing attack to stardom once again. He is the playmaker this team needed to acquire this offseason.

Davone Bess: Bess became the go-to target of Henne late in the 2009 season. He really is better suited as a complimentary receiver than the go-to guy. Now he will have that complimentary role with Marshall in town. Brian Hartline could also sneak his way into this slot with an impressive training camp.

Tight end

Anthony Fasano: Fasano’s numbers regressed under Henne. The more experienced Pennington was able to find him open on more occasions. Once Henne matures as a QB, he will go through the progressions better and find Fasano on more occasions.

Kicker

Dan Carpenter: Carpenter figures to finish as a middle of the pack fantasy kicker in 2010.

Defense/Special team

The Dolphins defense was terrible against the pass last season. They didn’t really address this need in the offseason either. I would predict the Dolphins defense to finish in the bottom third of fantasy defenses in 2010.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Trent Edwards: I guess you could say Trent Edwards is the starter based on people currently on the roster. He was supposed to be a great sleeper QB last year when the Bills acquired TO. He certainly was a sleeper and remained asleep for the entire season. Edwards is in tow until the Bills draft Jake Locker in the 2011 draft.

Running back

Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller: Fred Jackson figures to play the Pierre Thomas role and Spiller figures to play the Reggie Bush role in the offense. I think Spiller can live up to his end of the bargain, but I am still not sold on Jackson. And with Lynch still here this running back situation is very cloudy at best. I would try to avoid this team’s running backs on fantasy draft day.

Marshawn Lynch: Here’s a guy that has fallen flat on his face after having a promising start to his career. Maybe somehow he can get the courage to resuscitate his dying career. I have my doubts on that though.

Wide receiver

Lee Evans: Evans takes back over as the No. 1 WR now that TO is gone. He may not be a bad option in PPR leagues for 2010 as the rookie QB that takes over will probably use him as his security blanket for the season.

James Hardy/Steve Johnson/Marcus Easley: These three I believe will have a training camp battle for the No. 2 WR position. My educated guess is that Easley will emerge as the No. 2 as he had shown in college that he has solid run blocking skills for a receiver.

Tight end

Shawn Nelson: The team cut the oft injured Derek Fine, clearing the way for Nelson to become the full time TE. He is tall and could be a nice receiving option in the middle of the field for the new team QB.

Kicker

Rian Lindell: Lindell figures to finish in the middle third of fantasy kickers in 2010.

Defense/Special team

They have a decent pass defense but the run defense is horrible. Plus with the offense producing so many three and outs, it will put this defense on the field a lot in 2010. I predict the Bills defense to finish in the bottom third of fantasy defenses in 2010.

Here is the order of finish prediction in the division:

New England
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Football: Early 2010 composite dynasty receiver rankings and commentary

jzak — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 16:01:13 +0000

Good things come to those who wait, and for those who followed my early composite rankings for running back, quarterback and tight end , here is the final chapter of the story … where your favorite wideouts rank in the grand scheme of things.

This early in the offseason, not many sites offer dynasty player rankings, so I had to go with what I could find. Using rankings from fftoolbox.com, rotoworld.com and fantasyfootballmaniacs.com, here is my current composite list of dynasty receivers, including my own ranking in parenthesis before the player’s name (and total composite score in parenthesis after the player’s current squad).

1. (1) Andre Johnson, Houston (4): A really tight race for the top spot between Johnson and Fitzgerald, I base my own rank on the fact that Matt Schaub is lightyears better than Matt Leinart, Derek Anderson or any other QB the Cardinals can find stumping for work.

2. (2) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona (5): He’s too talented not to produce whatever the circumstance, but the loss of both Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin make Fitzgerald a bit of an unknown in a tight race with Andre Johnson for the top spot.

3. (5) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis (13): Best receiver on a team with Peyton Manning under center will always get high marks … I’d leave him at three if this was a redraft league, but my personal ranking factors in some small concern with Wayne and Manning’s ages and, more importantly, that the Colts are really starting to spread the ball around more. This is partially why I suggest trading him in dynasty leagues.

4. (3) Calvin Johnson, Detroit (15): His dip in production last year may scare off some buyers, but Calvin is uber-talented, young and has a quality QB in Matthew Stafford under center who will help Calvin return to elite stats over time.

5. (4) Roddy White, Atlanta (18): Just hitting his prime, has a young franchise QB who will get it all together this year and catapult White into the upper echelon of performer at this position.

6. (6) Miles Austin, Dallas (22): A contender in 2009 for fantasy MVP title, Austin came seemingly out of no where to become an elite receiving option. I’d have him ranked higher if he had a larger sample size and if I wasn’t a little skeptical yet of Tony Romo.

7. (8) DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia (24): Finally a legitimate receiving threat for Donovan McNabb, Jackson matured into a solid option. Only question here is what happens over the next year or two at QB in Philly?

8. (7) Greg Jennings, Green Bay (25): Coming off a disappointing season, Jennings may be a good buy-low in dynasty leagues … especially since the experts so far seem to feel that Jennings will bounce back this year. And why not? He’s got a rock-solid QB who loves to fling the pigskin around.

T-9. (11) Randy Moss, New England (28): There is no denying that Randy Moss can still produce when he’s healthy and receives enough targets to make something happen. He isn’t getting any younger, however, and there are plenty of rumors that Moss won’t be with the Patriots beyond 2010. Wait until he has a few banner games in Wes Welker’s absence early this coming season, and then look to deal him while his value is at its highest.

T-9. (10) Vincent Jackson, San Diego (28): The Chargers have abandoned their run game, literally, this offseason and will look to Philip Rivers and the dynamic duo of Jackson and Antonio Gates moving forward. Jackson is a solid option.

11. (15) Marques Colston, New Orleans (32): A favorite of Drew Brees, Colston is an intriguing option for fantasy owners. If the team didn’t spread the wealth so much, I’d be even more bullish on Colston for the long haul.

12. (9) Brandon Marshall, Denver (36): Surprising to me to see him fall this low in composite rankings. Sure he has off-field issues and can be a cancer within the locker-room. Sure his QB situation isn’t stellar. Still, with Kyle Orton at the helm in 2009, Marshall showed that he’s a game-changer both on the field and in fantasy circles. I’d definitely want him over others on this list, regardless of the baggage.

13. (12) Sidney Rice, Minnesota (37): Became a star thanks to Brett Favre’s attention in games, the only concern about Rice is his long-term value in terms of who will be quarterbacking in 2010 and beyond. I’m predicting that Favre will return in 2010, and Rice is too talented to overlook on draft day or via a trade. In fact, he may be a good guy to target at the moment if his current owner is leary of the Favre situation (and if you agree with me that Favre will return for at least one more season).

14. (16) Steve Smith, Carolina (47): His horrific games in 2009 were tied directly to Jake Delhomme. Notice how his fantasy numbers improved dramatically when Matt Moore was under center? With Delhomme in Cleveland now, things are looking bright again for Smith.

15. (13) Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh (48): Continues to make the transition to being the Steelers No. 1 receiver. Pittsburgh has metamorphasized into a passing-friendly team, and with Big Ben throwing around the pigskin, it is likely that Holmes continues to work his way up the rankings when Hines Ward starts to see his skillset decline with age.

16. (17) Steve Smith, NY Giants (49): Became the go-to guy for Eli Manning in the Big Apple, and will continue to be a force to be reckoned with. The Giants do have a slew of decent talent at the position in Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden.

17. (18) Wes Welker, New England (50): There is no denying that Welker is a force, especially in PPR formats. However, people are tempering expectations based on season-ending knee ligament tears. He’s a guy who thrives on shiftiness and changing direction at a moment’s notice, and one wonders how that will be affected by the injury, that will keep him out at least a couple weeks of the regular season in 2010.

18. (14) Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (51): Finally away from Arizona, Boldin finds himself on a team desperate for help at receiver. His new QB is young, gritty and able to get the ball into open space. The return of Derrick Mason gives Boldin a legitimate threat on the opposite side of the field to keep defenses honest. And, he’ll be looking to prove to the Cardinals and the world that he has plenty of gas left in the tank.

19. (19) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco (57): Young and uber-talented, Crabtree will be much more ahead of the curve this year since he’s not missing the entire preseason of preparation. Alex Smith has become an under-rated threat at QB and Crabtree will continue to become a known fantasy quantity in 2010.

T-20. (21) Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants (61): Talented and a potential No. 1 receiver for the Giants in the not-too-distant future depending on how the receiver carousel works this year for New York, Nicks is a guy you want stashed away on your team.

T-20. (30) Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (61): Did very well as a rookie last season and will continue to grow in an offense that has learned to appreciate the pass lately. Still has two solid options ahead of him on the depth chart, though, so he’s more of a long-term buy at the moment.

22. (37) Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati (62): Aging player on a team with a QB who has questionable loss of arm strength and who signed Antonio Bryant to compete with Ochocinco for the most looks.

23. (20) Percy Harvin, Minnesota (65): The Vikings continue to tinker with new ways to get Harvin involved in the offense, and he showed last season as a rookie that he’ll capitalize on opportunities.

24. (35) Robert Meachem, New Orleans (67)

25. (22) Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville (71)

26. (28) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia (76)

27. (29) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (77)

28. (24) Pierre Garcon, Indianapolis (86)

29. (23) Kenny Britt, Tennessee (90)

30. (32) Braylon Edwards, NY Jets (93)

31. (38) Hines Ward, Pittsburgh (94)

32. Donald Driver, Green Bay (96)

33. (34) Steve Breaston, Arizona (105)

T-34. Jerricho Cotchery, NY Jets (107)

T-34. (37) Derrick Mason, Baltimore (107)

T-36. Lee Evans, Buffalo (109)

T-36. (33) T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Seattle (109)

38. (25) Devin Aromashodu, Chicago (110): If the Bears had a first or second-round pick, I’d be worried about them trading for Brandon Marshall … but that isn’t the case and Aromashodu looks to be the No. 1 receiver there in 2010. In a Mike Martz offense, that is definitely appealing.

39. Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis (111)

40. (40) Austin Collie, Indianapolis (112)

Intriguing receivers that missed the composite cut: (26) Julian Edelman, (27) Donnie Avery, (36) Mohammed Massaquoi, (39) Joshua Cribbs

How do you see the 2010 receiver rankings for dynasty and keeper leagues? We’d love to hear your comment in the space provided below.

Dynasty Debate: Eight players to consider trading away in fantasy football circles

Consigliere — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 05:02:52 +0000

OK … before I get into my list, let me preface this by saying a few things:

1. If your team has a legit shot at winning this year, you probably should not trade any of the players on this list.

2. I am predicting that these players will suffer a loss in value in the coming years, not necessarily the coming season.

3. I am advocating the idea of selling these players high when their value is near their peak.

4. Trading these players will benefit your team if they are one of your lone studs, because you should be able to get some picks and up and comers in return for the top-flight talent.

1. Steven Jackson: In his past five seasons, he has averaged about 300 touches and he has been very productive. He started to show signs of breaking down last year with the injured back, although he is very tough and continued to play anyway.

But let’s be realistic, the Rams suck, they have no QB and they are going to ride Jackson into the ground. At 27 years old when the season starts, his time is running out. He most likely has 1-2 good years left before we could see an LT esque decline. His value should still be high right now, so the return for Jackson could still be worth trading.

2. Marion Barber: Turning 27 years old as the season starts and due to his punishing style of running, he has some serious tread on the tires. This may be the last year you can get any sort of return for him in trade. With Felix the Cat shining down the stretch last season and Tashard Choice showing he is more than capable to complement, there isn’t enough ball to go around.

Also with Romo and the passing game clicking, there is a good chance the rushes could be down and the Cowboys could go to the air more the coming season. I really don’t think Barber’s value will stay high, and I think he could be cut in the coming offseason, which could tick his value up slightly. Overall, I just don’t trust that he will stay healthy and with a deep draft for RBs, it might be worth unloading him for a late first round pick or early second round pick to get your hands on one of the rookie backs this year.

3. Randy Moss: When wide outs hit the wall they hit it hard, ask the owners of Terrell Owens. Moss has one more season with Tom Brady and then he will be a free agent and almost a foregone conclusion he will be on a new team next season. With the new team comes a ton of unknowns.

Moss is in a contract year, so he will most likely have a big year, but at the same time he might not be worth more than a WR2 after this coming season. He is a guy where if your team is close, I’d keep him and try to deal him next year, but if you’re not going to be in the running, then I would recommend moving him for some picks and a younger wide out.

4. Sidney Rice: It is not normal for me to recommend moving a young wide out, especially one that had such a breakout season. Rice is a tale of two quarterbacks … Pre-Favre (46rec, 573yards, 8tds) and Favre-era (77rec , 1200yards, 6tds).

Once old man river finally retires anything can happen. Will the Vikings get another aging quarterback or will they draft a young quarterback? No one knows.

I am pretty sure Rice continue to be a good receiver, but the dominate season he put up will likely not be repeated without Favre at the helm. Rice is still a solid young wide out, but I worry that he could be hurt significantly when Favre leaves the team. Although I struggle to figure out what fair value for Rice would be, but I can just say you will know it when you see it.

5. Joseph Addai: Donald Brown and Peyton Manning are the two reasons why Addai’s value will be all over the place. Brown will cut into his carries, receptions and touchdowns; Manning spreads the ball around too much (great for NFL, terrible for fantasy).

Kind of like Barber, Addai’s value is high right now, but I see his value falling during the season. While I know he will have a fairly consistent stream of points scored, I would much rather take a chance on one of the incoming rookie backs. I just have a hunch that Addai’s production will fall and maybe heading down the same path Dominic Rhodes did in Indy.

6. Michael Turner: Well he can’t catch and he broke down last season. He eclipsed the magic number of 370 carries in the prior season and then like clockwork he broke down. He has had nagging injuries.

Thankfully he was able to get 10 touchdowns last year to save some of his value for the owners that took him early in drafts. He then tried to tough it out at the end of the season and would go one carry and done or would just tease the fantasy owner into putting him in the lineup and then he would put up a zero. Do I think he can bounce back? … yes. But I think it’s a risky proposition, and if the price is right or you can find an owner that believes, you could get good value for him.

7. Brett Favre: He is old. There is no way he will repeat the numbers he put up. Greg Williams and the Saints D were one more drive away from ending two quarterback’s careers in one playoffs.

More importantly I doubt he plays more than one more season, so trading him to get something is better than just having a dead space on your team. If you have a chance to win the title, keep him and run with it. If you don’t have a shot, then you should try to move him for a pick and maybe a lower level player with some upside. This is just an example of dealing a player before they retire to avoid dead weight.

8. Matt Forte: Chester Taylor hurts his value, and I just don’t think he is that good. Sure he had a good season and can catch, but he doesn’t have breakaway speed and I will contest he couldn’t make a kid in a wheelchair miss.

With the thought of Mike Martz running the show, some people may go to great lengths to get a hold of players on the Bears so the value could be there. I am just not a believer in Forte, and if the receivers start to come through there could be a flurry of passes coming out of the windy city.

He is a young back so it might not be worth pulling the plug just yet, but again if the price is right, it might be worth moving him.

What are your opinions on this list? Which players are you considering trade-now candidates in dynasty football leagues?

The most extensive 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings on the net

jzak — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 15:53:46 +0000

In the YellowPages, you let your fingers do the walking.

When it comes to fantasy football, you can let your chinstrapninjas do the surfing.

As the rest of the collective football world slowly wakes up from its Super Bowl stupor and thinks it is safe to turn its attention to college hoops and fantasy baseball, this becomes one of the best times for fantasy football dynasty league owners to morph into stealthy ninja form and take their opponents by surprise.

Some consider early-offseason trading in dynasty leagues as fantasy suicide … you don’t know what to expect from offseason moves and the NFL rookie draft.

However, with careful calculated projections and predictions, this can be a perfect time to strike a deal that could catapult your squad to fantasy prominence not only in 2010, but well beyond.

As I discussed some potential deals in my own dynasty league, I was disappointed in how few other sites and resources were far-sighted enough to start providing solid dynasty rankings for 2010. Sure it’s early, but then again, you need some items in your fantasy tool belt if Johnny Trade-a-lot springs a multi-player blockbuster deal on you.

It would be easy for me to provide you with my position-by-position dynasty rankings, and while I feel pretty confident in my personal list, I didn’t develop it until after doing a good deal of research and checking out similar lists on other sites.

So, for the best dynasty rankings all in one convenient location, I developed the following complete early 2010 dynasty quarterback rankings, scoring in similar lists from fftoolbox, rotoworld, dynastyrankings.blogspot and footballdiehards websites. This composite list includes my personal ranking (in parentheses before each name), each QB’s current team, age and (after the name in parentheses) the composite scoring from the four sites above.

Check back soon for similar rankings at each of the other positions.

1. (2) Drew Brees, New Orleans, 31 years old (6pts). The Super Bowl MVP has a lot to offer fantasy owners. He’s matured into a top-notch QB with a huge arsenal at his disposal. He should be around for years to come, and many are thinking the Saints have morphed into the new-age version of “The Greatest Show on Turf.” Some already are talking about Brees being on track to being one of the best QB of all time.

Scoring-wise, Brees was only one overall point higher than Aaron Rodgers for the top spot, and I personally have Rodgers ranked first at the position, but when it comes to the crème de la crème at signal caller, you really can’t go wrong with either option.

2. (1) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, 26 (7 pts). What’s not to love about Rodgers moving forward? He has arguably the best weapons of any QB on this list. Even if Donald Driver retires in the not-too-distant future, Rodgers still has elite options in Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley at his disposal, along with plenty of other young pieces with upside.

Rumor-mill whisperings suggest that the Packers draft a speedy backfield complement to Ryan Grant, which should give Rodgers even more short yardage and red zone opportunities out of the backfield.

Those who knock Rodgers from the top spot argue that he’s a major injury waiting to happen considering how much he was knocked around in 2009 by opposing defenses and poor O-line play. I think that’s ridiculous. Don’t you think that the Packers brass watch the same games we do? Don’t you think they winced in horror every time Rodgers was smacked to the turf? Don’t you think they’ll make the O-line a major organizational priority this offseason?

Also, make sure you take note of Rodgers’ age … a good five years younger than Brees and the youngest QB in the composite top eight QB options.

3. (3) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis, 33 (11 pts). Forget the miscues in the Super Bowl, Manning proved during the regular season that his talent is ageless. Many, including yours truly, expected Manning to take a step back in 2009. He did the opposite.

He has emerging young weapons and an undervalued running game at his disposal. His pocket presence and overall O-line protection will help keep Peyton healthy long after most of his quarterbacking peers. He may be the third oldest option on this list (outside of Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb), but who else would you want starting for you when your fantasy season is on the line?

One word of caution for Manning is the tendency for Colts higher-ups to sit the QB late in the year (typically during the fantasy playoffs) when his team’s NFL postseason ticket is punched.

4. (5) Philip Rivers, San Diego, 28 (18 pts). Gone are the days that the Chargers are a run-first, grind-it-out offense. This is King Philip’s team now, and Rivers has shown that he can handle the challenge.

The steady, reliable production of Antonio Gates coupled with the emerging skillset of Vincent Jackson has allowed Rivers to become a viable fantasy option both in 2010 and beyond. Darren Sproles offers a solid out-of-the-backfield target and San Diego is certain to select a young RB with good hands during the upcoming draft.

While I’ve never looked at Rivers as an elite QB option, it is hard to deny that he has arrived on the fantasy scene and should be considered a reliable option for the long haul.

5. (6) Tom Brady, New England, 32 (20 pts). The 2009 Comeback Player of the Year has been a fantasy staple for years now … thanks especially to the breakout emergence of Wes Welker and the big-play abilities of Randy Moss.

However, while his season-ending stats were impressive, there were some visible chinks in the armor that need close monitoring this offseason. Welker went down in the postseason with severe knee injuries. While he predicts he’ll be back for the 2010 season opener, more realistic projections don’t have Welker back into later in the campaign … and it remains to be seen what level he’ll be playing at when he does return.

Moss, who’s been on his best behavior for the Patriots, started to show some trademark attitude in 2009. Not enough to think he’ll become a liability in 2010, but enough to wonder what may play out in the years to come. News that Moss had been fighting with pain from a separated shoulder most of the season is actually encouraging for Brady owners, however, because the injury provides a viable excuse for Moss’s struggles at times this year.

The postseason emergence of the young and talented Julian Edelman also gives hope to the Brady-a-holics. It is way too soon to consider Brady on the downside of his fantasy career, but he does have more question marks surrounding him than others on this list.

6. (9) Tony Romo, Dallas, 29 (26 pts). Thanks in large part to Miles Austin, Romo’s fantasy stock soared in 2009. Many were suspicious how Romo would produce without an elite No. 1 WR in the mix, but Austin filled that role nicely as the season progressed.

Tight end Jason Witten, who struggled to start the season, started hitting his fantasy stride down the stretch. The breaking down of running back Marion Barber led to a breakout emergence for Felix Jones in the postseason … and if Jones continues to get a majority of the backfield starts in 2010, he provides a much better receiving option for Romo.

7. (8) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh, 27 (27 pts). Many dynasty owners were low on Big Ben several years ago because he filled the prototypical QB on a running-first squad role. However, Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game took a major leap forward in 2009.

Hines Ward is ageless, Santonio Holmes continues to emerge as a top-flight option, Heath Miller started living up to his tight end potential, even rookie Mike Wallace played an important role in the Pittsburgh aerial attack.

In addition to Rashard Mendenhall becoming a bigger piece of the offensive puzzle moving forward, Roethlisberger needs to be respected in fantasy circles.

8. (4) Matt Schaub, Houston, 28 (30 pts). What else does Schaub need to do to gain the respect of fantasy owners? As I predicted this time last year, he proved in 2009 that he can survive a full season without missing time to injuries, he has arguably the best receiver in the game (Andre Johnson) and a very capable supporting cast.

Many quickly forget how prolific tight end Owen Daniels was last year up until his season-ending injury … Schaub would have been a contender for the highest producing fantasy QB in the NFL if Daniels has played the entire year.

Many are skeptical of the Houston backfield, but all the pieces currently in the RBBC there are major options for the passing game, including Steve Slaton, who could play more of a Reggie Bush-type role in 2010.

Schaub is young enough and has more than enough weapons around him on a team that always seems to be playing catchup to be considered an elite dynasty QB moving forward … hence my personal top-four ranking.

9. (7) Matt Ryan, Atlanta, 24 (35 pts). Everything you need to know about Ryan’s potential you can read in my early 2010 sleeper post. There are many reasons why I love Matt Ryan in dynasty leagues … the kid has tons of talent and a solid supporting cast.

As I posted in my sleeper column, Ryan’s numbers this past season may have seemed disappointing, but compare them to sophomore statistics of current QB greats such as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. You’d be amazed how close they look on paper.

Fantasy owners are fickle. They were spoiled by Ryan’s amazing rookie numbers, and too lazy to look at the numbers and big picture behind what will surely be a long and prosperous career for Ryan both in the NFL and on your respective fantasy team.

10. (10) Joe Flacco, Baltimore, 25 (42 pts). Flacco continues to get little respect by fantasy owners … including those in dynasty leagues. It’s a shame, because when the Ravens land their next elite WR (Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, someone else?), everyone will wonder where this Flacco kid came from.

Fantasy-wise, on a team fairly devoid of reliable receiving weapons, Flacco has been a gem. He made Derrick Mason a solid fantasy option in 2009. Flacco helped bring out the best in emerging talent Ray Rice.

If I’m re-building my dynasty team for the long-haul, I’d look to deal an older “veteran” option with more name value for a Flacco any day of the week, while improving my roster in other places, to boot. This time next season, Flacco will be higher on this list.

11. (12) Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia, 34 (46 pts). It’s amazing to me how undervalued McNabb is to both hard-core fans of the Eagles and fantasy owners alike. He is a top option at the position every year, regardless of the ebb-and-flow of the talent Philly puts on the field.

Last year as Brian Westbrook struggled to produce on a consistent basis, McNabb simply dished the ball out to the team’s very young stable of capable receivers. Still, McNabb finds himself in offseason rumormills about where he’ll be playing in 2010 and how much longer he’ll be a viable option.

As I predicted for this season, McNabb will stay in Philly and will again produce a solid stat-set that many will be too narrow-minded to enjoy. Don’t be one of those owners.

12. (14) Eli Manning, New York Giants, 29 (47 pts). Peyton’s little brother faced a changeover in the receiving guard last season, but was quick to find new favorite toys in Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and others.

The team continues to proclaim itself as a run-first juggernaut, but Brandon Jacobs definitely lost a step in 2009 and Manning stepped up his game to compensate. He will again provide respectable numbers in 2010 with the potential to move up higher on this list, even though there are some questions surrounding the Giants both in the running game and on the defensive side of the ball.

13. (11) Jay Cutler, Chicago, 26 (48 pts). After his move from Denver to Chicago last offseason, Cutler’s value has taken a hit. He struggled majorly at times in 2009, and many worry that he’s ways too inconsistent to be a starting fantasy QB.

However, that was before the recent hiring of Mike Martz as Bears Offensive Coordinator. Suddenly, Cutler becomes a QB sleeper. Martz is known for extremely elevating the passing games on every team he’s coached, and the Bears have some young talent that could translate into plenty of stats for Cutler.

Matt Forte is a good out-of-the-backfield target, Devin Aromashodu emerged as a Cutler favorite and big-time receiver at the end of the season, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox are guys who stand to see significant boosts in value, as well.

Many forget just how young Cutler is, and he’s now in a situation that should elevate his fantasy game to the next level.

14. (21) Vince Young, Tennessee, 26 (53 pts). Young is young. Young has weapons. Young proved in 2009 that he can be a winner at the NFL level. However, I’m not sold on him as a fantasy option.

His passing game isn’t as polished as it could be simply because he is so quick to tuck the ball and try to make yardage on the ground. In the final 10 games of the regular season, Young threw for over 200 yards only four times and had multiple touchdown passes in just two contests. Not exactly fantasy-friendly production.

15. (13) Chad Henne, Miami, 24 (57 pts). Trying to fill Dan Marino’s cleats has proven to be difficult for the Dolphins, but they seem to have found their answer in Henne. While the Michigan product definitely suffered from growing pains as a starter last season, he showed plenty of potential in an offense fairly devoid of pure receiving talent.

He threw for over 300 yards in three of the team’s final five games, including a 335-yard, two-TD performance against division rival New England in Week 13.

Henne is lobbying for the team to draft an elite receiving threat, and there are plenty of rumors about either Anquan Boldin or Brandon Marshall ending up in Miami. Henne’s future is bright.

T-16. (15) Carson Palmer, Cincinnati, 30 (63 pts). After a statistically disappointing season for Palmer, NFL analyst Chris Mortensen said: “I don’t hear a lot of negative stuff from people in the league about Carson. You’ve got to surround him with weapons. He’s absolutely OK.”

The Bengals do have to get some young, speedy receivers. However, how do you account for Palmer’s loss in velocity and overall accuracy? It’s possible that we’ve seen the best of Carson Palmer.

T-16. (16) Brett Favre, Minnesota, 40 (63 pts). It doesn’t take rocket science to understand why Favre, a top-five fantasy QB in 2009, is ranked this low on a dynasty QB list. He could come back and single-handedly lead both the Vikings and your fantasy team to the promised land. He could finally retire for good.

My opinion? He’ll be back for one last try at a ring. He’s already the best QB in NFL history, according to me.

18. (17) Matthew Stafford, Detroit, 22 (64 pts). Those who doubt that Stafford could be a fantasy force for the Lions need only look at his 422-yard, five-TD outing against Cleveland last year. Sure, it was against the Browns … but he was totally locked in during that contest.

He has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, a second-year tight end in Brandon Pettigrew that could one day be a top-five fantasy performer at the position and a running back in Kevin Smith who is proficient in the passing game.

The Lions are behind in enough games for Stafford to need to air things out on a consistent basis. He had a rough rookie campaign, but will be a better sophomore QB because of it.

19. (18) Mark Sanchez, New York Jets, 23 (70 pts). Some may be scratching their head that a guy who threw just 12 TDs and 20 INTs last season would even make the top 25, but many also overlook that Sanchez was a rookie.

In the grand scheme of things, his numbers weren’t too far off base when looking at rookie numbers by other top-tier QB. Braylon Edwards underperformed most of the season, but should be a viable weapon in 2010, and the Jets aren’t done in accumulating WR talent … whether it be via free agency or the rookie draft.

In a couple years, Sanchez will be a top fantasy QB, and someone worth hoarding in all dynasty formats.

20. (23) Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay, 22 (75 pts). “We want him to complete 65 percent of his passes. He needs to be the first guy in the building. It’s the leadership aspect we need from him. He needs to be more vocal with teammates in and out of the huddle,” new QBs coach Alex Van Pelt said.

Being the first guy in the building and taking a bigger leadership role is totally on Freeman, but the Buccaneers need to provide some weapons if Freeman is to see his completion rate improve

Tampa needs to do a lot of things to be competitive again, and I wonder if Freeman will be a casualty of an impatient fan base before he ever really gets a good chance with a solid supporting cast.

21. (N/R) Jason Campbell, Washington, 28 (76 pts). Campbell’s long-term future is not with the Redskins, who will likely nab one of the top QB talents in the upcoming rookie draft. This means that Campbell will wind up in a lame duck role as a starter to keep the starting Redskin gig warm for Jimmy Clausen or Matthew Bradford … or he’ll wind up playing elsewhere in 2010.

His short and long-term values are both tied to where he plays, and if he somehow winds up with a team like the Arizona Cardinals, as I predict here, than he could a good value player at this point. However, there is more risk than reward at the moment.

T-22. (19) Matt Leinart, Arizona, 26 (80 pts). Kurt Warner’s retirement should, at least on the surface, translate into Leinart getting the keys to one of the better passing offenses in the league.

Unfortunately for Leinart, coach Ken Whisenhunt comes from a run-first mentality, and there is good reason to believe that Anquan Boldin will be playing elsewhere in 2010.

Even with those factors involved, Leinart is a sneaky play here considering his age. However, his inconsistency in spot play backing up Warner could lead to some outside competition for the starting QB gig … from someone like Jason Campbell, among others.

T-22. (25) David Garrard, Jacksonville, 31 (80 pts). For years, Garrard has been arguably the most under-rated fantasy quarterback in the game … consistently and quietly ranking among the top 10 to 15 players at the position. However, coach Jack Del Rio has openly question whether Garrard is a Super Bowl-level signal caller.

“A quarterback like David Garrard can be that with a great supporting cast,” he said. “I don’t know. When you look at teams that have won multiple championships, I think they’ve had elite quarterbacks.”

Garrard’s future with Jacksonville is tenuous at best, and there are some rumors that certain rookie QBs are on the radar screen heading into the 2010 draft.

24. (N/R) Kyle Orton, Denver, 27 (84 pts). ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio has reported that the Browns, Bills and Broncos have expressed an interest in possibly trading for Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb. Not exactly a glowing endorsement for Orton.

That’s a shame, because Orton exceeded many a fantasy owners’ expectations for the 2009 campaign with Denver by tossing multiple TDs in seven contests last year and tossing 200-plus yards in 10 contests (including a 431-yard game against Kansas City in the season finale).

25. (20) Matt Cassel, Kansas City, 27 (85 pts). Many expected Cassel to have a banner year. Sports Illustrated’s fantasy magazine actually asked the question of whether Cassel or Tom Brady would have a better year in 2009 (which is just one of many reasons I detest fantasy magazines).

However, Cassel lost his primary weapon, Dwayne Bowe, for most of the season and struggled to produce consistent statistical performances.

In 2010, however, Bowe should be back on the field (barring any unforeseen knuckle-headedness) and Cassel should thrive under new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. Bowe is a definite sleeper candidate in most dynasty formats.

Other QBs of note:

While neither Alex Smith nor Michael Vick scored high enough to make the composite top-25 QB rankings via the websites listed above, I have both ranked in my personal dynasty QB rankings.

Smith (my 22nd ranked QB) didn’t start until Week 7, but still finished the season with 18 TD in the final 11 weeks – seven of which he threw for 200-plus yards in, as well. He has one of the most talented young WRs in the league to throw to (Michael Crabtree) and Vernon Davis has emerged as an elite pass-catching tight end.

It also helps that Smith has one of the league’s best targets out of the backfield in Frank Gore and that the Niners are habitually playing from behind in a fairly defensively depleted NFC-West.

Michael Vick (my 24th-ranked QB) was decent in spot play for the Eagles this season in his comeback to the NFL after dogfighting and animal cruelty charges landed Vick in prison. Vick wants to play for a team that will allow him to start, and there are several teams in need of a starting QB. My prediction, the Rams, would put Vick in a position to make plays and provide fantasy production for those who are willing to take a gamble on him.

2010 Fantasy football forecast: Randy Moss, New England Patriots wide receiver

ep — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:00:25 +0000

Back in mid-December, one of my updates included a dig on Randy Moss during the whole “quitting on the team” thing. I’m a little ashamed.

Word came out yesterday that Moss has a separated shoulder that was first injured back in Week 5. Yes, this is the kind of injury that could heal with enough rest, but to think any receiver without the full range of motion in both arms could play at his best is asking a lot. He did it for 11 weeks.

The shoulder wasn’t the only thing ailing Moss in 2009, that can be both good and bad news for 2010.

Let’s stick with the shoulder injury for just a bit more. Moss showed up on the injury report with a (shoulder) on Oct. 11. He played every game and was taken off the list on Nov. 6.

Prior to that, on Sept. 25, he was listed with back pain. But he played Sept. 27. He was on the report that time through Oct. 1.

So, Moss was at least aching for most of the season, right? But it didn’t show in his final statistics.

He amassed 83 catches, 1,264 yards and led the team with 13 TDs. Moss also played in 85% of the team’s offensive snaps, easily making him the team leader among wide receivers, according to a story on ESPN.com.

Factoring in that team-leader statistic and the injuries, it’s pretty obvious that Moss did not quit on the team and should be back to form in 2010.

However, the fact Moss was ailing as much as he was should concern folks a bit.

Moss has missed just six regular season games in his NFL career, so he’s not going to skip a game over a hangnail. But he is 32. While that’s not nearly the end-game for great NFL receivers, it’s going to be more difficult for him to recover from all the little nicks and that could eventually end with him in street clothes for a couple games.

So, what about Moss in 2010? If Patriots quarterback Tom Brady bounces back — dudes, read what I said about him in the Top-10 QBs of 2009 post — or even if he’s just mediocre, Moss will be a Top-5 receiver again. He’ll get 80 or more catches, 1,200 yards and 10+ scores.

However, if you have Moss in a dynasty or keeper league, it may be time to trading block him and see what kind of offers float in.

Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt and Terrell Owens are proof that if a great receiver runs into a brick wall at the end of his career he’ll bring zero value in a trade.

Harrison and Owens are a little older, but Holt and Moss are about the same age and have about the same number of NFL catches (920-926 in favor of Moss).

Holt was ranked as a preseason Top-10 receiver a year ago (2008) and in the Top-5 the year before that (2007). Harrison went from being a Top-2 receiver pick in 2007 to a Top-25 receiver in 2008 to not even being on a team in 2009.

Don’t look at those steep declines, panic and trade Moss for Mike Sims-Walker straight-up. He still has plenty of value, and probably a couple great years left.

2010 fantasy implications: Top-20 WRs from 2009 (non-PPR)

ep — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 12:30:39 +0000

With so many surprises in the fantasy football wide receiver ranks in 2009, it was kind of like your last birthday party.

You had some good friends there — like Andre Johnson and Randy Moss — some pals who you weren’t sure about, but were darn fun at the party — Miles Austin and DeSean Jackson — and there were a couple pals who didn’t show up — Terrell Owens and Dwayne Bowe — and have thus been knocked down the friend food chain. Bad analogy because, y’know, you don’t eat your friends. Hopefully, anyway.

So, here we are on the cusp of change — if we were playing that game, two of the top five don’t belong, and that’s not even considering Sydney Rice or that Steve Smith.

What chance do these surprises have of making a splash at your fantasy football bash in 2010?

Andre Johnson – When Owen Daniels returns he’ll steal some catches in 2010, but we can call AJ the new gold standard for wide receivers… At least until Miles Austin plays a full season as the No. 1 in Dallas.

Randy Moss – When you talked about gold standards for most every season since 1998, you talked about Moss — let’s forget about the Raider years. But Moss and Brady displayed humanity in 2010. Is it the beginning of the end?

Miles Austin – Much has been said of Awesome Austin so far at Chinstrap Ninjas, what with the Platinum Shuriken nod and such. He’ll be back here again next season, which, coincidentally is this year.

DeSean Jackson – Speaking of being back here in 2010. Jackson’s got this whole speed, game-changer thing going on. I’d like to see him back in the top-5, but if the rumor-mongers prove to be right, jzak’s prediction is wrong and some Kolb of corn is under center for the Eagles in 2010, you’ve gotta change Jackson’s crop forecast.

Reggie Wayne – Manning to Wayne is like Manning to Harrison, only newer. If you don’t expect Wayne back here next year then I’d just like to say that this is a fantasy sports Web site. You are in the wrong place.

Larry Fitzgerald – Fitz’s super statistics rest solely on Kurt Warner’s ultimate decision to retire or keep playing. The Cardinals’ receiver is a tremendous talent and will get his points regardless. But I think everyone reading this can agree that without an All-Pro veteran like Warner firing passes at him, he’ll score less in 2010.

Wes Welker – If you want a sure-fire player to strike from list in 2010, pick the guy with a demolished knee who will likely only play about four games in 2010.

Roddy White — Things are going to have to change for White to return to this list. He benefited greatly from two 30+ point games in 2009. If Ryan and the Falcons offense improves, White will return.

Brandon Marshall — It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Marshall won’t be with the Broncos in 2010. It’s also pretty obvious that he’s supremely talented, will catch on somewhere and be a fantasy factor in 2010.

Vincent Jackson — Look at the targets for the top 10 receivers and two numbers really jump out at you, DeSean Jackson’s and Vincent Jackson’s. Vincent had just 107 targets while those around him had 140s and 150s. His talent is on the rise. Let’s stop for a second and imagine if he got 40 or 50 more targets. That’s probably not going to happen, but even 20 more targets in 2010 could boost him into the top-5.

Sydney Rice — Rice had relatively low target numbers (121) despite how much it seemed like Brett Favre was tunnel-visioning him in the playoffs. Rice finally seems to be living up to the hype. If Favre stays retired — double-Ha! — Rice will not be happy. The Vikings can’t go from Favre to Tarvaris Jackson with a straight face.

Steve Smith (NYG) — A lot of people could have expected him to be this high on a point per reception list, but this one doesn’t factor in every one of his 107 catches. He’ll continue to be the one constant for the Giants passing game.

Hines Ward — People keep trying to bury Hines Ward because he’s old. He’s got a few years left.

Chad Ochocinco — I’d like to badmouth Ochocinco for scoring nine TDs and relying on that for his fantasy points — he had an un-Ocho 72 catches for 1,047 yards, but then we turn to Marques Colston’s numbers…

Marques Colston — Colston is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL, so it pains me a bit to rip on him for relying on his nine TDs to inflate his fantasy points. What I mean is that, with his 70 catches and 1,074 yards, if he scores three less TDs, he is Donald Driver or Derrick Mason and has a good chance of missing out on top-20 status.

Santonio Holmes — So, how do you follow up a spectacular catch to win the Super Bowl? With 79 catches, 1,248yards and five TDs, of course.

Steve Smith (CAR) — A number of times I’ve said to a number of people that if the Panthers had made Matt Moore their quarterback earlier in 2009, they might be playing next weekend. Steve Smith would definitely have been ranked higher than 17th. Moore, or any quarterback other than Delhomme could help vault Smith back into the elite in 2010.

Greg Jennings — We touted Jennings pretty highly in the preseason. It’s not like he was a bad receiver, it’s just that Ninjas paid a top-5-ish price. The promise is still there for Jennings, but Rodgers is generous with his passes. Until something changes expect this kind of performance in the future.

Derrick Mason — Will he retire? He was retired in the offseason last year, but came back. The only thing is, the Ravens were close again this year and Mason had his best season statistically. I bet he’ll be back, but not up in this list.

Anquan Boldin — So, if Boldin does in fact get out of the dry heat that is Arizona in the offseason he’s actually getting out while the getting is good. He played hurt for what seemed like the entire season but still amassed 84-1,024-4 and a rushing TD. That’s an impressive audition for his next team.

Who won’t be back in 2010? Who crashes this party in 2010? Let us know in the comments.

Chinstrap Ninjas » Randy Moss

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