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	<title>Chinstrap Ninjas &#187; recap</title>
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		<title>Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:38:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=941</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We may be only one-seventh of the way through the fantasy regular season (for those in leagues who play 14 weeks of regular season action), but that is enough to start the juices flowing for true trade-aholics like myself. While many saner fantasy “experts” would urge patience and caution before jumping into the trading market, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We may be only one-seventh of the way through the fantasy regular season (for those in leagues who play 14 weeks of regular season action), but that is enough to start the juices flowing for true trade-aholics like myself.</p>
<p>While many saner fantasy “experts” would urge patience and caution before jumping into the trading market, I’m recommending that all owners to channel their ninja senses and go for the trade-button jugular.</p>
<p>This is mainly because of what is lining up to be a major value wave among the ranks of fantasy elite after the first two weeks of action.</p>
<p>Below are players who should figure heavily into trade discussions sooner rather than later.</p>
<p><span id="more-941"></span><br />
1. <strong>Matt Forte.</strong> A horrific start for the Bears second-year player has many whispering about a sophomore slump. What many may overlook is that Forte started the season against two very solid run defenses and has weathered a period of transition in the passing game as Jay Cutler and company work to define their roles. Forte will burst back into the fantasy scene this week against a Seattle defense that has been shredded on the ground (most recently by Frank Gore). If you’ve been slow to trading in the past, this is the one opportunity you don’t want to drag your feet on. Many may be slow to deal him so early in the season, but then again, people who drafted Forte are likely facing an 0-3 start to the season &#8212; plenty of reason to panic.</p>
<p>2. <strong>Steve Slaton.</strong> The Texans have been on an offensive roller coaster ride so far this season, but Slaton has been the one constant &#8212; constantly stale. Two weeks, two excessively poor performances. Slaton is a harder case to judge (than Forte), in my opinion. He faced one of the most under-rated defenses in football in the Jets in week one, and ran against a stingy Titans defense last week &#8230; one that was much more susceptible to the pass than the run. His three fumbles are worrisome, as are comments from coach Kubiak that the Texans should have considered Cedric Benson this offseason. Regardless, Slaton is too talented not to turn it around at least somewhat, and has a slate of games now schedule-wise that he should be able to exploit (Jaguars, Raiders, Cardinals, Bengals). He’s too bargain-basement not to throw some offers out for at this point, I just worry that he sees more struggles this season that Matt Forte will.</p>
<p>3. <strong>Clinton Portis.</strong> I said before that these are players who should be involved in trade discussions, and Portis is an interesting case. Everyone considers the name Portis to be synonymous with consistency from a fantasy standpoint, and for years that was the case. He did tank it as the season progressed last year and has been mediocre at best in 2009. His stats against the Rams last week was disheartening, but he still should rebound mightily against the Lions this week. After that, however, I would recommend floating his name around your league to see what interest is out there. If Portis does light things up in Week three, he could be a solid bartering piece for you to land a younger, long-term option for the rest of the long haul.</p>
<p>4. <strong>Aaron Rodgers.</strong> It pains me to say this in public, but I have severe concerns for Rodgers after watching my beloved Packers after two weeks of action. The O-line and the overall pass blocking is atrocious. He spent more time in the grass last week than my push mower does in a month. If this keeps up, the biggest question about Rodgers won’t be how many TDs he chucks or yards he passes for, but how long until he is hampered by a major injury. This week, the Packers, and Rodgers in particular, should fare pretty well against the Rams. However, after that, the team hits a tough part of the scheduling starting with a Week four Monday night game against the Vikings. I would strongly consider dealing Rodgers after this week for a under-rated fantasy QB such as Matt Ryan.</p>
<p>5. <strong>Michael Turner.</strong> Drafted in the top three of most fantasy leagues, Turner has put up pedestrian numbers the first two weeks of the season. Considering his campaign last year and the slow start to 2009, he should be a buy-low candidate, right? Not so fast. First, he’s basically a non-factor in the Falcons passing game, limiting his value in PPR leagues. Secondly, his big saving grace last year were the 17 rushing touchdowns. This year, the addition of Tony Gonzalez along with a more prolific passing attack in general will logically eat away at Turner’s scoring opportunities. Will he still have big games? Sure! Will be he one of the top three scoring running backs in fantasyland? I’m not so sure.</p>
<p>6. <strong>Pierre Thomas.</strong> Pierre was primed for big numbers until bitten in the preseason by the injury bug. He sat on the sidelines and watched Mike Bell garner all the stats and attention that Thomas was due. In a weird twist of fate, Bell is now the one injured and Thomas is on the verge of headlining the rushing game. A good time to buy Pierre and hope that he starts fast out of the gates to keep Bell at bay.</p>
<p>7. <strong>Anthony Gonzalez.</strong> As most anyone who watches football knows by this point, Gonzalez’s promising 2009 season was sidetracked by a sprained PCL. He’ll be out another month or so. However, when he does come back, Gonzalez has the makings of a solid sleeper receiver in an offense geared towards the pass. If you are in a dynasty league, you should definitely be making some offers for AGonzo. However, even in redraft leagues for the right price, the young Colts receiver would be a good player to stash away for a rainy day when your team is making a push for a playoff spot.</p>
<p>8. <strong>Joe Flacco.</strong> After two weeks of play, which QB has 500 yards passing and five touchdowns? No one would have guessed that Flacco would be in this category. There is a reason for that &#8212; the Ravens have always been a run-first, pass-second offense. Flacco adds a new dimension to the offense, but the Ravens have several able-bodied running backs in Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain and a lackluster group of receivers. Flacco’s numbers will slip in the near future, and now may be a good time to deal him for a Matt Ryan or even a Matt Schaub, if you can.</p>
<p>9. <strong>Tim Hightower.</strong> The Cardinals running back has been a statistical fireworks display in PPR leagues thanks to a ton of receiving yards and opportunities in the offense. However, Arizona will be a different team when Anquan Boldin is on the field and fully healthy, limiting Hightower’s numbers in the passing game. Also, the Cardinals will continue to inject more and more of rookie Beanie Wells into the offensive scheme. Depending on which players you can get for Hightower, he may be a guy worth dangling in trade talks.</p>
<p>10. <strong>Knowshon Moreno.</strong> It was bound to happen sooner rather than later for the most talented running back on the Broncos roster. Moreno, a rookie, was given 17 carries and capitalized for 75 yards along with two catches for 22 additional yards through the air. This may have gone unnoticed in mostly redraft leagues due to lack of touchdowns &#8230; something that will change as Moreno has more and more opportunities to flash his talent on the field.</p>
<p>Want more sound fantasy advice? Check out ninja ep&#8217;s <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-football-week-2-day-of-reckoning/">Week 2 recap</a>, a box-by-box <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/week-2-box-scores-what-do-they-mean-ffb/">review of each Week 2 game with individualized fantasy analysis</a>, charts and analysis on <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-points-allowed-by-position-after-week-2-ffb/">points allowed by position after Week 2</a> and a detailed discussion on the NFL&#8217;s <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-footballs-most-targeted-through-week-2/">most targeted players</a> after two weeks of play.</p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/the-2009-sock-exchange-week-2/" title="The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2 (September 18, 2009)">The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2</a> (0)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-that-youll-see-happen-in-week-1/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1 (September 12, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dissecting-fantasy-football-auction-leads-to-sound-drafting-advice/" title="Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice (September 4, 2009)">Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
</ul>

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		<title>Don&#8217;t be a fruit fly: Go against grain with these fantasy tips</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dont-be-a-fruit-fly-go-against-grain-with-these-fantasy-tips/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dont-be-a-fruit-fly-go-against-grain-with-these-fantasy-tips/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2009 04:27:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=915</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It only took about five minutes for a cloud of fruit flies to find the cantaloupe rind I had placed on the kitchen counter. Which got me thinking some very important thoughts. Such as … where do the fruit flies come from? There wasn’t a single fruit fly in the house one moment, and suddenly [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It only took about five minutes for a cloud of fruit flies to find the cantaloupe rind I had placed on the kitchen counter.</p>
<p>Which got me thinking some very important thoughts.</p>
<p>Such as … where do the fruit flies come from? There wasn’t a single fruit fly in the house one moment, and suddenly a wave of insects was treating my melon rind as if the fruit flies were the paparazzi and the rind was an incoherent Brittany Spears.</p>
<p>And … where do the fruit flies go when the fruit is removed? How quickly do they find the next over-ripened banana or half-eaten pear? Is there any insect or animal more obsessive or overzealous as the fruit fly?</p>
<p>And then it dawned on me … the one truth I had been searching for as I prepared to write my Week 1 recap:</p>
<p>Fantasy football owners are the fruit flies of the sports world.</p>
<p>Want proof?<span id="more-915"></span></p>
<p><strong>Joe Flacco</strong> threw for 307 yards and three touchdowns in the Ravens’ season-opener last week against Kansas City. Suddenly, like that cantaloupe sitting on my kitchen counter, Flacco was flooded with attention from fantasy owners in leagues of all shapes and sizes. He was picked up in favor of many slow-starting QB options. In one of my leagues, actually, someone dropped Ben Roethlisberger for Flacco. This after Roethlisberger proved his own worth against an otherwise stingy Titans defense last Thursday. Flacco does deserve some attention, but let’s be reasonable here. He still is throwing to a mediocre receiving cast and his huge stats came against the Chiefs’ defense.</p>
<p>Another young QB that many are trying to snag after week one is <strong>Mark Sanchez</strong>. Those who were ahead of the curve (<a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-prediction-my-true-sleeper-qb-for-2009/">like those who read my sleeper QB column a few weeks ago</a>) were able to avoid the Black Friday-esque fight to get Sanchez off the waiver wire. As I mentioned in the column, Sanchez has the “it” factor that will help him excel at the NFL level. Even though his receivers are fairly unknown, they are really reliable, if non-flashy, options.</p>
<p><strong>Cadillac Williams</strong> is also a now-hot commodity in fantasy circles after a 97-yard, one-TD performance against Dallas. While he’s the flavor of the week in the Bucs’ backfield, remember that Tampa has a stable of able backs (Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward to name a few) and talk is that the Buccaneers will keep Cadillac around 15 or less carries a game. He’s worth a roster bench spot if you have room, just don’t expect consistent fantasy production from him.</p>
<p><strong>Don’t be just another fruit fly</strong></p>
<p>How are you handling your waivers and team management after week one? Are you going with the masses and trying to snag every player who scored a few fantasy points in hopes that it is the start of a trend? Or, are you going against the grain?</p>
<p>While the rest of the fruit flies buzz to the waiver wire for the flavor of the week pickup, why not throw a few offers at league owners who are panicking after just one week? There are plenty of players who were horrific in week one that you may be able to fish away from someone else in your league. Some players to consider:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Andre Johnson.</strong> OK, landing him may take a small act of God, but you may be surprised how many people are looking at the Texans right now and wondering if the sky is falling in Houston. Many forget that the Jets defense was really solid at the end of last season, and made some major strides this offseason to be even more dominant. On the flip side, the Texans next face a Titans defense that allowed the Steelers to light it up through the air. Expect Johnson to bounce back to reality sooner rather than later … and this may be the lowest value he’ll be the rest of the way.</li>
<li><strong>Chris Johnson.</strong> Johnson was mediocre at best last Thursday against the Steelers. Plus, I’m <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/">not totally sold </a>that Johnson will be a fantasy beast again in 2009. However, his Thursday stats were against the best defense in football, and next he’s playing against a Houston team that allowed the Jets to run amok in week one. Here’s another Johnson who’s value will increase significantly this weekend.</li>
<li><strong>Clinton</strong><strong> Portis.</strong> See Chris Johnson. A mediocre week one against an incredibly tough defense (<a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-that-youll-see-happen-in-week-1/">as predicted here</a>) followed this Sunday by a cakewalk matchup (against St. Louis). Portis has the added bonus of rushing against the Detroit Lions in week three. Again, like with CJ, I’m not sold on Portis this year for the long haul, but he’s a player who could be the most productive back over the next two weeks of play and will be a hot commodity when dangled before week four to the fruit flies in your respective legues.</li>
<li><strong>Matt Schaub.</strong> Hard to stick up for a guy who killed my chances for a “W” in many leagues last week, but as long as Schaub can stay upright, he’ll be a viable fantasy option. The Titans defense allowed Roethlisberger to look like Dan Marino, and Schaub may use the same matchup to bounce back into the limelight.</li>
<li><strong>Matt Forte.</strong> The Bears offense looks like a mess at the moment. Cutler wasn’t exactly a superstar last week against the Packers. However, Forte and company will bounce back. Possibly not this week, against the Steelers run defense, but after week 2, Forte’s value may be the lowest you’ll see it moving forward.</li>
<li><strong>Michael Turner.</strong> A guy I was afraid of going into the season due to his exceptionally high workload last year, Turner still has a lot more to offer than his 65-yard, zero-TD performance last week.</li>
<li><strong>Steve Smith.</strong> Three catches and 21 yards is nothing to write home about, but the Eagles defense had Jake Delhomme’s number from the start. Some QB controversy is brewing in Carolina, but no matter who is throwing the ball, Smith’s stats will even out sooner rather than later.</li>
<li><strong>Roddy White.</strong> Another WR with many expectations but many disappointments in week one, White is too talented, his QB too talented and his supporting cast too talented for the numbers to continue being in the doghouse.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>What are your week one viewpoints? What does it mean for the long haul? We’d love to hear your comments.</em></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-youll-see-happen-in-week-2/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2 (September 18, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/" title="NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (September 9, 2009)">NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-that-youll-see-happen-in-week-1/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1 (September 12, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
</ul>

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		<title>Ninja sense: Ten things that you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 1</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-that-youll-see-happen-in-week-1/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-that-youll-see-happen-in-week-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2009 12:00:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=905</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let me go on record as saying that I totally HATE pregame shows. Did you see the Black-Eyed Peas’ poor excuse for lip syncing? Did you see the cheesy countdown clock? It was hard to tell if I was waiting for a football game, or getting ready to watch the ball drop on New Years’ [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let me go on record as saying that I totally HATE pregame shows.</p>
<p>Did you see the Black-Eyed Peas’ poor excuse for lip syncing? Did you see the cheesy countdown clock? It was hard to tell if I was waiting for a football game, or getting ready to watch the ball drop on New Years’ Eve.</p>
<p>I wonder if they run that junk to help people better savor the actual start of the game. You can safely turn up the volume on the TV and sink your teeth into some football.</p>
<p>Preseason football is a similar story. It’s all a tease. It’s all just a placeholder, keeping us at bay long enough to drown in our own drool waiting for the actual season to begin. Tomorrow, the wait is officially over. It’s finally safe to turn up the volume, grab a bowl of popcorn and savor the action.</p>
<p>But before we do this, let’s look one last time at some themes, predictions and suggestions before the real day of opening games is upon us. (Also, don&#8217;t miss out on my <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/one-ninjas-fantasy-viewpoints-from-the-steelers-titans-season-opener/">fantasy recap</a> of the Steelers-Titans game from Thursday night.<span id="more-905"></span></p>
<h3>Ninja sixth sense: Ten things that will happen the rest of Week 1.</h3>
<p>1. See <strong>Clinton Portis</strong> run. See Clinton Portis get whacked by the Giants defense. I personally love Portis as a fantasy player. Few can match his reliability as a running back at a position known for inconsistency. However, his statistical nosedive late last year paired with talk that Ladell Betts will see an increased role in the running game leaves a series of red flags for Portis in 2009. Facing the Giants’ brick wall of a defense won’t help matters. Things will get better against the Rams and Lions in weeks two and three, respectively, but don’t expect huge stats Sunday. For more on Portis an the rest of the NFC-East, <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-east-eagles-loaded-with-fantasy-weapons/">click here</a>.</p>
<p>2. <strong>Ray Rice</strong> has been gaining steam in many season projections this year, and for good reason. He has been named the official starting tailback on a team that loves to run the ball. He matches up against a Kansas City defense that is a work in progress. While he may lose a few touchdowns to Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain, expect Rice to make up for that with Flacco screens and a welcome-to-the-bigtime Week 1 performance. Here’s expecting him to outscore Portis.</p>
<p>3. Still trying to understand how <strong>Earl Bennett</strong> is owned in just 30 percent of Yahoo leagues. Against a transitioning defensive scheme in Green Bay in a primetime game that screams shootout potential, Bennett will arrive Sunday night in fantasy football leagues. Get him now before waivers close Sunday morning, or you’ll be blowing your waiver priority and be playing a 1-in-12 chance at snagging him Tuesday morning. For more on Earl Bennett and why he&#8217;s my top WR sleeper for 2009, <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-prediction-my-2009-wr-sleeper-special/">click here</a>.</p>
<p>4. Really struggling at quarterback? Want a ninja-esque play? How about <strong>Shaun Hill</strong>, who will get enough action against a suspect Cardinals defense while playing catchup Sunday. Josh Morgan will fair well, too, as he makes his case to hold down the WR1 spot in San Fran regardless of what Crabtree does contract-wise.</p>
<p>5. Pierre Thomas won’t play for the Saints this week, vaulting <strong>Mike Bell</strong> into the limelight against the woeful Lions defense. Bell will be a solid play in most every format Sunday, and he’s only owned in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues. Even if you don’t need him as an RB2 or flex player, grab him before Sunday’s games and dangle him like a carrot to whoever falls prey to the week one injury curse.</p>
<p>6. One wide receiver that will really shine Sunday will be new Seahawk <strong>T.J. Houshmanzadeh</strong>. Seattle will be chomping at the bit to unveil its new weapon, Matt Hasselbeck is itching to put last season in the rearview mirror and the Seahawks are matching up against the Rams. If you think the stars are aligned for Housh, also consider that Deion Branch is looking less and less likely to play.</p>
<p>7. There are so many rookie receivers this year that could make some noise, that it is easy to forget about PSU grad <strong>Deon Butler</strong>, also a Seahawk. For all the reasons listed above for Housh (especially the part where Branch will likely sit), I expect Butler to get some sneaky-good stats.</p>
<p>8. <strong>Donnie Avery</strong> was hamped by injury this preseason and not expected to be available so quickly. However, he will start Sunday against the Seahawks, who aren’t exactly the Steel Curtain. Avery is the best receiving threat on that offense, and will see targets early and often in a game that promises to be a shootout.</p>
<p> 9. If you are starting anyone on the <strong>Cleveland Browns</strong>, you should reconsider quickly. I’m expecting the Vikings-Browns game to be one of the most lopsided games in recent memory, and not in the Browns’ favor.</p>
<p>10. I’m a huge Texans advocate in fantasy circles this year, including one who expects continued solid play from <strong>Steve Slaton</strong>. However, I think he may struggle some in week one against the Jets’ vastly improved defense. Slaton was fairly mediocre in preseason play and the Jets matchup will be tough one right out of the gates. I don’t expect him to be horrible in the game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss the 100-yard mark on the ground and manage one TD at best.</p>
<p><em>What are your predictions for Week 1? We&#8217;d love to hear them. Tune in later Saturday for a list of players you should seriously consider adding to your fantasy rosters before waivers close Sunday morning &#8230; including one player who I feel will be one of the best sleepers in 2009.</em></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/week-one-waiver-wonders-guys-to-grab-before-gametime/" title="Week One waiver wonders: Guys to grab before gametime (September 12, 2009)">Week One waiver wonders: Guys to grab before gametime</a> (0)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-youll-see-happen-in-week-2/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2 (September 18, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/the-2009-sock-exchange-week-2/" title="The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2 (September 18, 2009)">The 2009 Sock Exchange: Week 2</a> (0)</li>
</ul>

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		<title>Dissecting fantasy football auction leads to sound drafting advice</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dissecting-fantasy-football-auction-leads-to-sound-drafting-advice/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dissecting-fantasy-football-auction-leads-to-sound-drafting-advice/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Sep 2009 04:57:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aaron rodgers]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=862</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Everything I ever need to know I learned in high school biology class. I’m not talking about the details of photosynthesis or how the mighty mitochondria functions in a cell. Not anything about the symbiosis between living organisms or how deer ticks successfully transmit Lyme Disease. No, the lesson I found most valuable from the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Everything I ever need to know I learned in high school biology class.</p>
<p>I’m not talking about the details of photosynthesis or how the mighty mitochondria functions in a cell. Not anything about the symbiosis between living organisms or how deer ticks successfully transmit Lyme Disease.</p>
<p>No, the lesson I found most valuable from the days of AP Biology was a simple mantra for tacking some of life’s great mysteries:</p>
<p>If you want to know more about something, dissect it.</p>
<p>It worked with frogs, lab mice and even a roadkill coyote my teacher brought in for us to slice apart. Sure, you can learn anatomy and physiology from a textbook and worksheets, but the only way to really understand how something works is to take it apart and, if you can, put it back together.</p>
<p>Fantasy football is no different, and to really stay one step ahead of the competition, it helps to dissect everything from draft results, roster moves, free agent pickups and trade proposals. You can learn about fantasy sports from a magazine or newspaper article, but you’ll never really understand it without doing the real thing and then dissecting it.<span id="more-862"></span></p>
<p>Take, for example, the Daily Item fantasy football league. Consisting of league managers from all sorts of backgrounds, professions and experience levels, the league is made of people who live in the coverage area of The Daily Item newspaper. Each summer, we hold a live auction draft to kick off the new season using a $200 salary cap.</p>
<p>Auction-style drafting is becoming more and more popular, and for good reason. The strategies can be complex and endless. The format encourages people to interact more at a draft and get to know each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Everyone has an equal shot at drafting any player. Plus, another cool aspect is that auction fantasy football drafts are like snowflakes &#8230; no two are the same.</p>
<p>With owners ranging in age from nine to the mid-50s, and with varying levels of fantasy sports experience, the Daily Item league draft was an interesting experiment in auction mentality.</p>
<p>As a way to better understand the chaotic science of auction drafting, let me take a few moments to dissect this draft (a 12-teamer) on a team-by-team, and strategy-by-strategy basis (I won’t cover every team, but will discuss some of the main strategy elements).</p>
<p><strong>Seth:</strong> The epitome of hard-line auction drafting, Seth went into the draft with a short list of specific players he wanted and wasn’t swayed when the bidding got hot and heavy. He honed in on Frank Gore and didn’t back down until he bought the San Franscisco RB for $45. He then pounced on Brian Westbrook and bid like a pitbull bites, not letting go until he got what he wanted &#8230; in this case Westbrook for $40. Considering that Brandon Jacobs went to a different team for $46 and many of the other higher-end RBs went in the high 40s to low 50s in price, the Gore-Westbrook combo wasn’t a bad buy. Seth used similar determination in landing Peyton Manning for $37 and wasn’t swayed when Tony Gonzalez’s value kept climbing past the $20-plateau. In fact, Seth stiff-armed the Gonzo competition with a quick, unexpected $40 bid that left many in the room scoffing. When you take a hard-line approach to an auction draft, you run the risk of other owners purposely running up the values of certain players that they know you really want. Regardless, Seth walked away with a really solid starting roster with just one concerning area moving forward: his receivers and bench depth are all dollar-basement investments. By carefully watching the waiver wire for emerging WR talent, and if his starters can avoid injuries, Seth could be a season-long contender.</p>
<p><strong>Jason:</strong> Focused on running backs and RB depth (the league starts two RB, no flex), Jason developed his team around a nucleus of three strong halfbacks in Michael Turner ($57), Clinton Portis ($35) and Kevin Smith ($28). Of course, that depth and peace-of-mind at RB came a cost, literally, leaving Jason just $80 to fill out the rest of his roster. He invested $36 in his starting QB (Aaron Rodgers), which turned out to be about the going value for a player of Rodgers’ talent level &#8230; although the next tier of QB mostly went in the mid-20s. Needing value WRs to fill out the starting roster, Jason went with DeSean Jackson ($13) and Lee Evans ($11). An $8 investment in Owen Daniels left Jason with a competitive team that is a breakout WR short of being a possible title contender.</p>
<p><strong>Jake</strong><strong>:</strong> Looking at investing heavily in his fantasy starting corps at RB and WR, Jake landed a value in Maurice-Jones Drew at $51 (Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson went for $61 and $60, respectively). He followed with Reggie Wayne at $40, Ronnie Brown at $29 and Dwayne Bowe at $26. What hurt Jake’s team somewhat was that he was helping run the auction spreadsheet and got into the bidding action late in the draft. While there was an incentive for those who finished with the most leftover salary cap money (waiver order was based on leftover cash), Jake was in a position where solid QB options were few and far between. He left the draft with dollar QBs Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell, but also left $26 on the table. While that was good enough for top waiver priority heading into the season, it also left him questionable at QB.</p>
<p><strong>Jeff:</strong> Employing a “shotgun” approach to the auction draft, Jeff peppered bids throughout the afternoon, developing a roster filled with balance, but also lacking knock-out power players. His most expensive player was Marques Colston ($30), followed by a $23 Kurt Warner, $22 Derrick Ward, $20 Antonio Gates, $17 Marshawn Lynch and TJ Houshmanzadeh, $15 Beanie Wells, $13 Vincent Jackson and an $11 Knowshon Moreno. Jeff got some good deals and has an incredibly balanced and deep roster. On the flip side, deciding weekly matchups could be quite stressful with so many players around the same talent level. Also, he could struggle during non-bye weeks against rosters with less depth, but a higher-priced grouping of starting players. Of course, drafting a team filled with good bargain players could make Jeff a go-to target for league owners who are hoping to wheel-and-deal.</p>
<p><strong>Rick: </strong>One team that Jeff may struggle to match up with during non-bye weeks is Rick’s. Focused on developing the strongest starting nucleus possible, Rick was the only owner to pounce on three $40 players in Steve Slaton ($49), Drew Brees ($41) and LaDanian Tomlinson ($40). He filled out his primary starters with Wes Welker and Chad Ochocinco (both at $18). Joseph Addai at $21 provides some insurance for an aging Tomlison and a $6 investment in Jay Cutler as a backup QB was a great value. At this point, Rick was forced to fill out the roster with dollar players &#8230; leaving him possible susceptible during bye weeks and depending on possible injuries.</p>
<p><strong>John:</strong> My team fell into a rut I’m familiar with at auction drafts. My strategy is always to wait in drafts with the hopes that owners will break their accounts early and good value players will fall between the cracks. However, I always get burned on a player early in my drafting, and this time it was Matt Schaub, who I love as a sleeper this year, but found myself stuck in a bidding binge that left me with a $25 Schaub when other similar upside QBs went for less (Kurt Warner for $23, Matt Ryan for $20). This left me gunshy for the next several rounds of bidding, and I found myself in too many bidding wars with other owners who procrastinated in the draft and were scrambling for starters. In spite of this, I was happy with snagging Calvin Johnson ($39), Roddy White ($28) and Jason Witten ($18) at what I felt were really good values. Of course, this left me a decent amount of money, but no real backs to stake my claim to (Steve Slaton was still on the table, and I wimped out when Slaton went for $49 &#8230; in hindsight, I should have went for it). I wound up spending $58 total on Ray Rice, Willie Parker, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Bernard Scott and LeRon McClain (who I since dropped for Willis McGahee). That total would have been much less if someone hadn’t been bidding me up on Mendenhall, knowing I needed him to handcuff to Willie Parker (I wound up blowing $19 on Rashard), but still left $11 on the table. Combining that total with the $28 I blew on Parker-Mendenhall, I could have gotten something woth more upside at RB1 (like a Clinton Portis, Pierre Thomas, Marion Barber, etc.).</p>
<p>So, let’s recap the lessons learned from this fantasy league dissection &#8230;</p>
<p>1. Go into your auction draft with a plan. It’s OK to target certain guys that you feel will have a big season, and it’s OK to overpay somewhat on them if you feel you can create the best possible starting lineup. Just be careful not to tip your hand too much since there are guys in every league that would love to watch you overspend on “your guy.”</p>
<p>2. There’s a fine line between drafting a killer starting unit while neglecting your bench and drafting a team with super depth, but lukewarm starters. Pinpoint certain players you feel will be good value players and target them to represent your depth (guys like rookies i.e. Moreno ($11) or Wells ($15) or Percy Harvin ($8), up-and-coming players — like a Ray Rice ($15), and guys in improved situations — Trent Edwards ($10)).</p>
<p>3. Players taken earlier in the draft (and I’ve seen this in most every auction draft I’ve played in) seem to go cheaper than those left until late. Seems that more people than you’d imagine are procrasting drafters, while owners who take risks early get some good bargains. For example, Greg Jennings was one of the first players bid on, and went for $33. That’s just a hair more than Marques Colston ($30) and Dwayne Bowe ($26), who are lightyears behind Jennings on my rankings chart.</p>
<p>4. Have a list of players at every position who have good upside, but should go for $5 or less. If you do fall into a trap and spend more than you were hoping for at some point or another, this will give you solid fallback options. In the Daily Item league, players such as Kevin Walter, Lance Moore, Hakeem Nicks, Donnie Avery, Fred Taylor, Bernard Scott, Brett Favre, Earl Bennett, John Carlson, Zach Miller and Brent Celek all went for $5 or less and each could perform at a really good value.</p>
<p>5. Don’t plan on wasting any more than a dollar or two on your kicker or defense. Steven Gostkowski went for $3, and most kickers went for a buck. Defenses went for a little more (by a dollar or two), but there are plenty of viable options at defense that weren’t even drafted.</p>
<p><em>What are your auction draft tips? Did you draft recently and want your team/league dissected? Drop us a line!</em></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/" title="NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (September 9, 2009)">NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/projected-all-value-second-half-fantasy-studs/" title="Projected all-value second-half fantasy studs (October 30, 2009)">Projected all-value second-half fantasy studs</a> (1)</li>
</ul>

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		<title>In case you missed it [Week of March 16]</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/in-case-you-missed-it-week-of-march-16/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/in-case-you-missed-it-week-of-march-16/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2009 21:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>ep</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Draft]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Ninjas have been cranking up the posts recently, here&#8217;s a recap of our posts from last week: Fantasy Baseball JZ reviewed a www.fantasybaseballcafe.com regular&#8217;s aggregate fantasy baseball rankings based on several sites. There are mixed opinions in the Chinstrap Ninjas newsroom on Baltimore Orioles phenom/bust catcher Matt Wieters. The latest post is &#8220;Whiffing on [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Ninjas have been cranking up the posts recently, here&#8217;s a recap of our posts from last week:</p>
<h3>Fantasy Baseball</h3>
<ul>
<li>JZ reviewed a <a href="http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com">www.fantasybaseballcafe.com</a> regular&#8217;s <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=355">aggregate fantasy baseball rankings</a> based on several sites.</li>
<li>There are mixed opinions in the Chinstrap Ninjas newsroom on Baltimore Orioles phenom/bust catcher Matt Wieters. The latest post is <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=289">&#8220;Whiffing on Wieters.&#8221;</a></li>
<li>The fantasy baseball rankings have their <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?page_id=326">own navigation page</a> now, but last week&#8217;s additions were the fantasy <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=319">outfielders</a> and <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=316">designated hitters</a>.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Fantasy Football</h3>
<ul>
<li>The NFL season may be over, but fantasy players, and NFL fans know the NFL is an every hour of every day of every week obsession. There is always NFL news and JZ reviewed two big offseason moves in his NFL Offseason Stockwatch posts. He reviewed <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=351">Seattle&#8217;s T.J. Houshmandzadeh signing</a> and the next stop in the <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=349">Terrell Owens train wreck</a>.</li>
<li>I talked about how much a recent fantasy auction draft <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=310">revitalized my fantasy soul</a>, and JZ went even deeper into the <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=343">fantasy auction that he ran for the Gods and Generals league</a>.</li>
</ul>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/5-super-early-2009-fantasy-football-sleepers-ffb/" title="5 Super-early 2009 fantasy football sleepers [FFB] (June 2, 2009)">5 Super-early 2009 fantasy football sleepers [FFB]</a> (5)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/one-mans-road-through-an-auction-draft-ffb/" title="One man&#8217;s road through an auction draft [FFB] (March 26, 2009)">One man&#8217;s road through an auction draft [FFB]</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/forget-wieters-and-price-these-rookies-rock-fbb/" title="Forget Wieters and Price, these rookies rock! [FBB] (March 27, 2009)">Forget Wieters and Price, these rookies rock! [FBB]</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/7-great-steps-to-prep-for-your-fantasy-draft-fbb/" title="7 great steps to prep for your fantasy draft [FBB] (March 28, 2009)">7 great steps to prep for your fantasy draft [FBB]</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/its-a-trap-do-not-overpay-for-these-5-players-ffb/" title="It&#8217;s a trap! Do not overpay for these 5 players [FFB] (June 18, 2009)">It&#8217;s a trap! Do not overpay for these 5 players [FFB]</a> (5)</li>
</ul>

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