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		<title>NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don&#8217;t look now, but the NFC North has become a league filled with offensive powerhouses in 2009. The division used to be highlighted by tough defenses and grind-it-out time-control offensive philosophies, but not this year. The extra firepower will help any fantasy team wise enough to tap into the potential. Team-by-team previews and predictions include: [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Don&#8217;t look now, but the NFC North has become a league filled with offensive powerhouses in 2009. The division used to be highlighted by tough defenses and grind-it-out time-control offensive philosophies, but not this year.</p>
<p>The extra firepower will help any fantasy team wise enough to tap into the potential. Team-by-team previews and predictions include:<span id="more-880"></span></p>
<p><strong>Green Bay</strong><strong> Packers</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Well before the preseason offensive fireworks display, I was a big advocate of <strong>Aaron Rodgers</strong> in 2009. The running game is not the center of the offense – the passing game is. Rodgers has the weapons and will be in enough shootouts to finish the season in elite fantasy company: as a top-three QB with Brees and Brady.</li>
<li><strong>Ryan Grant</strong> is one of those running backs this year that allows fantasy owners to <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-football-2009-is-the-year-to-try-your-crazy/">take risks </a>in drafts. Taking stud receivers or a top QB in the first two rounds? Grant provides a nice RB insurance option this year. He started last season slowly, hampered by injuries. By the end of the season, he was a solid RB2, with RB1 performances. He starts this season off injury-free and should be a nice low-profile RB sparkplug.</li>
<li>Want a true team sleeper? Look no further than <strong>Jermichael Finley</strong>. The tight end tore it up all preseason for the Packers, and while the current plan is to use Finley and Donald Lee in a 50-50 split, I fully expect Finley to become one of Rodgers’ go-to red zone targets and be a viable starting TE in most fantasy formats by the end of the season.</li>
<li>Some are looking at the Packers’ <strong>defensive unit</strong> to be a fantasy sleeper this season, but I have my doubts. While the Packers should thrive in the 3-4 scheme that Dom Capers is instituting, it will take time for the squad to adjust to the nuances of the switch. The Packers have a great mix of veteran talent and youth potential, but they are no better than a D/ST plan B and bye-week fill-in depending on matchup.</li>
<li>There is no doubt that <strong>Greg Jennings</strong> has become the primary target in this offense over an aging yet effective Donald Driver and numerous young talents. Jennings is primed for a career season, especially in PPR formats.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>Minnesota</strong><strong> Vikings</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Anyone who thinks <strong>Brett Favre</strong> is going to wither and die as a fantasy option this year is totally out of touch with reality. When healthy last year, Favre led a fairly uninspired and under-performing group of Jets to an impressive 8-3 record. If he’s healthy, and indicators say he is, Favre should thrive in an offense where he doesn’t need to win games by himself. In 2007 with the Packers, Favre learned the value in throwing short passes and allowing the receivers room to work. His INTs dropped and TDs and overall yardage soared. While he won’t replicate his 2007 numbers, he will be a fantasy starter at times this season.</li>
<li>As someone totally unnerved by <strong>Percy Harvin’s</strong> track record for knuckleheadedness, I’ve grown to expect a decent rookie campaign in 2009. The Vikings seem committed to using Harvin in as many ways as possible, and having Favre around will help him both on and off the field. While it may not seem a stretch (considering Michael Crabtree self-distructing his NFL rookie season), Harvin could finish the season as the best rookie WR of this year’s crop.</li>
<li>I’ve mentioned this before, but I don’t expect <strong>Adrian Peterson</strong> to last all 16 regular-season games. He’s a hard-core running back that pounds the holes and drags tacklers with him, but that beating will also take its toll. You heard it here first: Peterson will not be the top-scoring fantasy running back in 2009.</li>
<li>With that being said, I expect <strong>Chester Taylor </strong>to be a sneaky RB sleeper this season. He has the skill set to excel as a 16-week starter for most any team, and he’s also in a contract year. He has something to prove, and when Peterson gives him the opportunity, Taylor will be a viable RB1 in most fantasy formats.</li>
<li>I have great respect for <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-football-strength-of-schedule-its-a-farce/">ep’s viewpoints on matchups</a>, but I totally disagree when it comes to defensive units. I’ve had too much success taking mediocre defenses who play horrific offenses and raked on the matchups and ensuing fantasy points. That being said, I totally expect the <strong>Vikings D/ST</strong> to be the highest scoring unit in fantasy football through the first third of the season. Matchups against Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, St. Louis and Baltimore in five of the first six weeks is pure fantasy gold.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>Chicago</strong><strong> Bears</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>There’s a wide spectrum of viewpoints on the Bears receiving unit this year. <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-prediction-my-2009-wr-sleeper-special/">Mark my words</a>: <strong>Earl Bennett</strong> will be the player standing when the dust settles in Bearsland. His connection with Jay Cutler goes back to a successful pairing at Vanderbilt, and it helps that Devin Hester is better suited as a trick, special teams sort of player. Bennett will be targeted early and often in the offense, and will not only lead the Bears in receptions, but will be near the top of the NFC-North in catches behind guys like Greg Jennings and Calvin Johnson.</li>
<li>Many feel that <strong>Matt Forte</strong> will experience some sort of sophomore slump in 2009, but it’s hard to drink that Kool-Aid. Jay Cutler will force defenses to play honest, opening holes for Forte and keeping the back upright more often than not. The Bears are a run-first, grind-it-out offense, and that won’t change even with Cutler under center.</li>
<li><strong>Jay Cutler</strong> highlights one of the biggest offseason trades in recent memory, and his presence will help the Bears offensive skill players. While he seems to be finding chemistry with his receivers and talented TE Greg Olson, it is hard to get excited about Cutler’s fantasy stock until he proves that he wasn’t a product of the Broncos’ situation.</li>
<li>Tight end <strong>Greg Olsen</strong> is a great asset to anyone drafting a fantasy team. With Cutler in town, Olsen is primed to take a leap in the position’s rankings, and allows people to avoid the early TE drafting trap of Witten, Gonzo and Gates.</li>
<li>The <strong>Bears D/ST</strong> is not what it once was. Sure, many of the playmakers, like Brian Urlacher, are still there. However, the unit is aging fast and finds itself in a division that suddenly is much improved offensively. In the past, the Bears were a lock as a top-five fantasy defense year in and year out. This year, I’d much rather take a chance a defense with upside than pay the inflated price that many place on the Bears based on name value alone.</li>
</ol>
<p><strong>Detroit</strong><strong> Lions</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Not sure why, but the announcement that <strong>Matthew Stafford</strong> will start week one over Daunte Culpepper surprised me. All preseason, Stafford seemed less polished than rookie QB counterpart Mark Sanchez, and while the Lions will not make the playoffs in 2009, Culpepper still provided them the best chance to get a few W’s on the board coming off the league’s first-ever winless campaign. I keep thinking Stafford will struggle on a team that should be better across the board in 2009.</li>
<li>There were several very impressive rookie running backs last season, but it surprises me that <strong>Kevin Smith</strong> continues to get so little love in fantasy circles. He gets it done both on the ground and through the air, and will be a safety valve for Stafford early and often. He is another RB, like Ryan Grant, who allows non-conventional fantasy drafters in 2009 to go WR-WR or QB-WR in the first two rounds and still save face at RB.</li>
<li><strong>Calvin Johnson</strong> is a beast, no matter who’s throwing him the ball. He has <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-football-discussing-the-all-safe-team/">too much talent to not succeed</a>, regardless of whether Culpepper or Stafford are under center. Last year, Johnson continued to shine even with Dan Orlovski chucking him the ball and defenses keying off him like teens at a Hannah Montana concert.</li>
<li>I really liked the Lions’ selection of <strong>Brandon Pettigrew</strong> in the rookie draft this year, and Pettigrew will be a tight end to watch in fantasy circles – however, not until 2010. He has talent and the Lions are starting to develop weapons in the offense, but Pettigrew will be option three for a rookie QB who continues to under-impress me.</li>
<li>Not that I need to tell you, but don’t bother drafting the <strong>Lions defense</strong> this year. While they will see improvement over last year’s squad, the NFC-North saw a major influx of offensive firepower this offseason, and the Lions will struggle to keep up.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>What are your predictions for the NFC-North? Keep checking back all season at chinstrapninjas.com for additional divisional previews, weekly sit-start commentaries, trade discussion, etc.</em></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-youll-see-happen-in-week-2/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2 (September 18, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/projected-all-value-second-half-fantasy-studs/" title="Projected all-value second-half fantasy studs (October 30, 2009)">Projected all-value second-half fantasy studs</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/afc-south-not-just-peyton-and-company-anymore/" title="AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore (September 10, 2009)">AFC-South: Not just Peyton&#8217;s place anymore</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/trade-aholic-tidbits-ten-players-who-should-be-mentioned-in-fantasy-trade-talks/" title="Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks (September 25, 2009)">Trade-aholic tidbits: Ten players who should be mentioned in fantasy trade talks</a> (1)</li>
</ul>

]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ninja prediction: My 2009 WR sleeper special</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-prediction-my-2009-wr-sleeper-special/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-prediction-my-2009-wr-sleeper-special/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Aug 2009 03:14:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=854</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[  Anyone who has drafted yet can tell you that the middle- to late-round wide receivers are as appealing as being a high school janitor during the peak of flu season. No one in their right mind can and should feel good about staring Laveranues Coles or Deion Branch as their WR2 &#8212; or even [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><span style="font-size: x-small;"></span></div>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"></p>
<p align="justify">Anyone who has drafted yet can tell you that the middle- to late-round wide receivers are as appealing as being a high school janitor during the peak of flu season.</p>
<p align="justify">No one in their right mind can and should feel good about staring Laveranues Coles or Deion Branch as their WR2 &#8212; or even to rely on them for spot starts off the bench.</p>
<p align="justify">Yet, there are some pass catchers that always seem to fall between the cracks at many drafts. These are guys you can nab late who could produce some big numbers at a critical point for you this season. The two I’m targeting the most this summer:<span id="more-854"></span></p>
<div><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></div>
<p><span style="font-size: x-small;"></p>
<p align="justify">Receiver sleeper, my name is Earl. As in <strong>Earl Bennett</strong>. Perhaps not a sleeper to some thanks to some growing hype around this Chicago receiver, Bennett is primed to be a fantasy force this season at a fraction of the cost of similar talents. He was a non-factor last year in his rookie campaign for the Bears, but is paired with long-time Vanderbilt teammate Jay Cutler. This summer, Cutler has targeted Bennett a number of times, and Earl has responded by catching everything that comes his direction.</p>
<p align="justify">News today on rotoworld.com is that Bennett has officially landed a starter gig across from Devin Hester &#8212; and Bennett is much more the prototypical receiver than Hester.</p>
<p align="justify">Yes the Bears have a talented tight end in Greg Olson who will benefit from Cutler under center. Yes, Hester is lightning-quick. However, I bet you dollars to doughnuts that Earl Bennett leads the Bears in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this year (I was going to save this fearless projection for my response to <a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/fantasy-football-five-tips-from-an-insane-person/">ep’s bold predictions column</a>, but I couldn’t resist.) I’d also place a nice-sized wager that Bennett will be a starting WR2 at some point this season in every league you participate in.</p>
<p align="justify">Make sure that team who starts him is yours by grabbing Bennett late in each of your drafts.</p>
<p align="justify">Miss out on Bennett? Why not take the player whose stock has arguably fallen the most between the NFL rookie draft and now?</p>
<p align="justify">That would be <strong>Michael Crabtree</strong>. In one of the biggest bonehead moves in recent sports memory, Crabree continues to hold out for a contract he doesn’t deserve. His intellectually challenged cousin even spread rumors that Crabtree is willing to sit out all season and re-enter the draft in 2010. Don’t believe that line of poo for one minute.</p>
<p align="justify">It’s amazing how short-sighted some fantasy owners can be this time of year. The season is long. Crabtree will sign at some point. He may not be playing in Week 1. In fact, there’s a good chance he won’t start a game by the 49ers’ week six bye. However, here’s betting that Crabtree plays no later than San Fran’s Oct. 25 game against Houston. The 49ers play against a bunch of questionable secondaries down the stretch this season, including Seattle, Arizona, Detroit and St. Louis all within the last five weeks of the season.</p>
<p align="justify">Crabtree has too much talent not to produce some impressive statistical totals this year. In fact, I expect Crabtree to be a major factor for many in this year’s fantasy playoffs.</p>
<p align="justify"><strong>Player to watch:</strong> Rumor has it that New York Jets receiver <strong>David Clowney</strong> has leap-frogged Chansi Stuckey for the opportunity to start opposite Jerricho Cotchery. Clowney has really impressed this summer and only four other receivers in the league have more preseason yards to their name. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez will have his growing pains at times this season, but he will prove adept enough for you to take a flyer on Clowney at the end of your draft if you have the extra roster space.</p>
<p><em>Who are your sleeper wide receivers for 2009? We’d love to hear your comments.</em></p>
<p> </p>
<p></span></span></p>

	<h4>Related posts</h4>
	<ul class="st-related-posts">
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/nfc-north-loaded-with-offensive-potential/" title="NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential (September 9, 2009)">NFC North: Loaded with offensive potential</a> (2)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-sense-ten-things-youll-see-happen-in-week-2/" title="Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2 (September 18, 2009)">Ninja sense: Ten things you&#8217;ll see happen in Week 2</a> (1)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/week-one-waiver-wonders-guys-to-grab-before-gametime/" title="Week One waiver wonders: Guys to grab before gametime (September 12, 2009)">Week One waiver wonders: Guys to grab before gametime</a> (0)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/ninja-prediction-my-true-sleeper-qb-for-2009/" title="Ninja prediction: My true sleeper QB for 2009 (August 22, 2009)">Ninja prediction: My true sleeper QB for 2009</a> (5)</li>
	<li><a href="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/comprehensive-guide-to-deadline-trading-who-to-target-who-to-dump/" title="Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump) (November 5, 2009)">Comprehensive guide to deadline trading (who to target, who to dump)</a> (2)</li>
</ul>

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		<title>Don&#8217;t be a sucker: Top 10 fantasy tight ends for 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dont-be-a-sucker-top-10-fantasy-tight-ends-for-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/dont-be-a-sucker-top-10-fantasy-tight-ends-for-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2009 04:44:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Once while on a family vacation to Pigeon Forge, Tenn., I saw the sign and had to investigate. A large painting of a giant chicken with fangs poking out of its beak accompanied some text. In big, blocky bold letters, it read: COME SEE THE MAN-EATING CHICKEN!! Not being in an oppositional defiant mood that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once while on a family vacation to Pigeon Forge, Tenn., I saw the sign and had to investigate.</p>
<p>A large painting of a giant chicken with fangs poking out of its beak accompanied some text. In big, blocky bold letters, it read: COME SEE THE MAN-EATING CHICKEN!!</p>
<p>Not being in an oppositional defiant mood that day, I obliged.</p>
<p>Sure enough, peeking into the window, I saw it … and was instantly mad at myself. I had fallen for the play on words. I was a sucker.</p>
<p>In the room was an obese dude gnawing on a chicken leg. He was a man eating chicken. Hardy stinkin’ har.</p>
<p>Many businesses stake their marketing dollars in tabloid-esque catchphrases. The idea is to catch us off guard … to break the norm and make us believe they know what they’re talking about just because they defied the status quo and did or said something out of the ordinary.</p>
<p>When it comes to your fantasy football rankings – especially for tight ends this year – don’t be one of those people who fall for the cutesy off-the-wall rankings from the “experts.” Don’t be a sucker. <span id="more-733"></span></p>
<p>Case in point: one fantasy football publication has Greg Olsen as its top fantasy tight end for 2009.</p>
<p>Yes, Olsen stands to improve significantly with Jay Cutler under center &#8212; and he’ll present a decent value pick this year in most drafts – but to name him the best fantasy tight end in football for 2009 is pretty much the same as saying that little green aliens have impregnated Oprah Winfrey – you know it isn’t true, but you can’t help but read further.</p>
<p>What makes the Olsen claim even more outrageous, in my opinion, is that tight end rankings this year are so cut and dry, especially at the top of the heap.</p>
<p>The top 10 fantasy tight ends, in order, include:</p>
<p><strong>1. Jason Witten.</strong> Hands down, the top tight end choice. Anyone who tells you differently is crazy. With Terrell Owens off to Buffalo, Witten will be the center of the offense. Roy Williams primary job will be keeping defensive pressure off Witten. Already in practice, the Cowboy brass have lined Witten up all over the field, as tight end, as a primary receiver, etc. Yes, Witten’s numbers weren’t as impressive as Tony Gonzalez’s last year, but remember that Witten was injured for part of the season and never got his feet under him properly upon returning. That won’t be the case this year. Even with the missed time, Witten finished with 81 catches, almost 1,000 yards and four touchdowns. Consider that Indy’s top receiver, Reggie Wayne, finished the 2008 campaign with 82 receptions, just over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. Expect much better things out of Witten in 2009.</p>
<p><strong>2. Tony Gonzalez.</strong> The G-man was incredible last year with the Chiefs, but also remember that he was the only offense the team could muster. He finished with 96 receptions, 1,058 yards and an amazing 10 touchdowns. Look closely at his TD totals however, and you’ll notice that he scored just five each of the previous two years – and that was when the Chiefs had other offensive weapons. Yes, Tony Gonzalez will benefit from the move to Atlanta, a hot young QB and plenty of offensive support. But remember, too, that he’ll have to learn a new offense, complete for looks and watch Michael Turner get carry after carry late in the game when the Falcons are running out the clock … something that didn’t happen last year in Kansas City when the Chiefs were airing it out often in catch-up situations.</p>
<p><strong>3. Antonio Gates.</strong> Antonio consistently produces much less yardage and overall receptions than either Tony or Jason each season – what bouys Gates’ stock are his TDs. He’s scored eight or more TDs each of the last three seasons and there is no reason to think he’ll slip any this season. If he was a bigger part of the offense outside of the red zone, than we’d have to consider bumping up a notch in the rankings, but for now, Gates is the third best option this year.</p>
<p><strong>4. Dallas Clark.</strong> Many think Chris Cooley belongs here, but Clark had just one less yard receiving than Cooley last year, and five more touchdowns. Sure, Cooley will score more TDS in 2009 than in 2008, but Clark is also primed to keep improving, especially with Marvin Harrison out of Coltsland and Clark lining up in the slot and taking catches up the middle. He is Peyton Manning’s security blanket. Enough said.</p>
<p><strong>5. Chris Cooley.</strong> As mentioned before, Cooley’s visits to the endzone were about as few as my visits to Disneyland in 2008. However, Cooley scored eight times the year before and six times in 2006. He is QB Jason Campbell’s personal friend, and with Santana Moss fighting Father Time, Cooley should see more looks this year.</p>
<p><strong>6. Owen Daniels.</strong> My Sports Illustrated magazine has Daniels ranked 11th among tight ends – behind guys who had less than half as many catches than Daniels in 2009. Owen accumulated 70 receptions last year, easily more than anyone outside of the five listed above. He registered 862 yards, more than everyone except Witten and Gonzalez. This was all with top QB Matt Schaub playing in only a fraction of the games due to various injuries and Sage Rosenfels calling the shots. The Texans offense is primed to be an explosive unit this year, and Daniels will be a fixture of that movement.</p>
<p><strong>7. Kellen Winslow.</strong> Kellen spends more time on the IL than I do on the internet. However, he hasn’t lost his vast talent, and is starting fresh this year with a new team. Tampa Bay has committed to using Kellen as the center of its offensive attack, and considering the lack of true explosiveness in the Tampa passing game outside of Winslow, I expect Kellen to have his best season as a pro. However, his tendency to get injured keeps him from ranking higher on this list.</p>
<p><strong>8. Greg Olsen.</strong> The Bears have one of the most talented young tight ends in the game, and they finally have a QB that can get him the ball consistently. Olsen’s massive size (6-5, 252 pounds) will translate into red zone opportunities and it isn’t as though the Bears have a lot of other receivers who deserve extra looks from Cutler.</p>
<p><strong>9. Kevin Boss.</strong> The Giants are in need of big guys who can catch the ball consistently in the red zone. Yes, they drafted some nice rookie receivers, but Eli Manning already has some confidence in Boss. The tight end started his rookie campaign slow last year, but accumulated 23 catches for 266 yards and four TDs in the final eight games of 2008. With some extra maturity in the passing game, expect 2009 to be a solid season for Boss.</p>
<p><strong>10. John Carlson.</strong> Tough selection here between Carlson and Miami’s Anthony Fasano, but Carlson is much younger and has a better QB heading into 2009. As a rookie last year, Carlson was the passing game’s lone bright spot after a slew of injuries wiped out the Seahawks receiver stable. He finished with 55 receptions, 627 yards and five TDs. TJ Houshmanzadeh and Deon Butler will require some of Matt Hasselbeck’s attention this year, but Carlson should continue to be a solid source of stats.</p>
<p><em>What are your opinions? We&#8217;d love to hear how you&#8217;d rank the top 10 TEs.</em></p>

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		<title>King of the Hill? [FBB]</title>
		<link>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/king-of-the-hill/</link>
		<comments>http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/king-of-the-hill/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 01:19:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>jzak</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Draft]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/?p=556</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[His name is Hill. Aaron Hill. And if you are following baseball this season &#8212; especially Toronto Blue Jay baseball, than you&#8217;ve heard of Hill and his offensive exploits. Specifically, his league-leading 51 hits. Oh yeah, his eight home runs, 28 RBI and 25 runs scored with a .375 batting average aren&#8217;t too shabby, either. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-557" title="aaronhill" src="http://www.chinstrapninjas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/aaronhill.jpg" alt="aaronhill" width="65" height="85" /></p>
<p>His name is Hill. Aaron Hill. And if you are following baseball this season &#8212; especially Toronto Blue Jay baseball, than you&#8217;ve heard of Hill and his offensive exploits.</p>
<p>Specifically, his league-leading 51 hits. Oh yeah, his eight home runs, 28 RBI and 25 runs scored with a .375 batting average aren&#8217;t too shabby, either.</p>
<p>The big question with Hill &#8212; the same player that went undrafted in a number of fantasy baseball leagues earlier this spring &#8212; is whether or not he&#8217;s having an Ian Kinsler-esque coming-out party, or if he&#8217;s one of the biggest sell-high candidates in fantasy baseball.<span id="more-556"></span></p>
<p>Hill, to many, is an anomoly. Last season was shortened for him due to injury &#8212; and he produced just two home runs and 20 RBI on a .263 batting average in 55 games. His stats from this season (listed above) were accomplished in just 32 games. This season, he has a home run-to-games played ratio of 25%. Last year, again offset by injuries, his HR/G ratio was a mediocre .036%.</p>
<p>Hill started playing with Toronto in the big leagues in 2005. From then through the 2007 season, his numbers steadily climbed. For example, in 105 games in his rookie campaign, he plated 40 runners (38%). By 2007, he accumulated 78 RBI in 160 games (49%). His home runs through the first three seasons of his major league career climbed from three, to six, to 17.</p>
<p>If we look past his shortened 2008 season, he definitely was on pace to greatly improve his stats &#8212; especially in a Blue Jay lineup that has, so far this season, been very potent.</p>
<p>Projecting his current eight home runs in 32 games over the course of a season (specifically to 160 games played &#8212; like he had in 2007), he&#8217;s on pace to hit 40 home runs this season (again 25% HR/G ratio). In 2007, easily his most productive full season to date, he cracked 17 home runs in 160 games, or 11%.</p>
<p>Realistically, Hill won&#8217;t hit  40 home runs this season, unless he&#8217;s somehow sneaking steroids. However, it is reasonable to expect him to easily surpass the 17 home runs he had in 2007 (he&#8217;s already almost halfway there). Splitting the difference between the 17 homers he smacked in 2007 and the 40 he&#8217;s on pace for at the moment, he could realistically hit 28 dingers this year (he&#8217;d only need 11 more all season) &#8212; and compared to the stats of second baseman last season, that would place him third in round-trippers at the position (behind just Chase Utley and Dan Uggla). Hill has always hovered around a .300 batting average during full-season play in the majors, so while his .325 may deflate a little the rest of the way, he should still provide solid batting average help to many at second base in fantasy leagues. Neither Utley (.292) or Uggla (.260) hit over .300 last year &#8212; and actually, only a few others at the position were able to do so. He also should compete for the best RBI total at the position, too, although predicting RBI can be tough.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that Hill looks like a player on the rise, and at a fairly shallow position, should be a top option moving forward.</p>

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