Philadelphia Phillies: Makes sense that the cream of the NL-East crop would also be the most loaded with obvious fantasy value. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and a bunch of others to consider. Out of their fantasy crop, I see Rollins and Hamels outproducing their current fantasy values. Out of a loaded crop of hard-hitting first basemen at the top of most drafts, I think Ryan Howard is the most likely to not live up this season to his draft day value.

Atlanta Braves: A team that continues to find ways to win with the talent at hand, the Braves are always a source of fantasy value in one form or another. Their A-liner is Brian McCann at catcher, but there are plenty of young up-shoot guys. I’m a fan of Martin Prado, who is eligible in most leagues at 2b, 3b and 1b. Jason Heyward is a true rookie talent with massive power potential. Like most rookie hitters, I think he’ll go through some rough patches this year, but I’m still stashing him away in the later rounds of most of my drafts.

New York Mets: As a team last year, they were a fantasy bust. From Johan Santana and David Wright to Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, the team underperformed across the board and many, including myself in most cases, are leary of investing much in any of these players unless they show a collective rebound. That being said, as owners become more and more gunshy of these talented yet underperforming players, they could become sneaky values on draft day. If Reyes can rise about his thyroid issues, for example, he could easily surpass some current draft-day projections. Same for David Wright and numerous others. Just tread cautiously.

Florida Marlins: There is no player I want more in all of baseball on my fantasy team than Hanley Ramirez … even more than Albert Pujols. Young talent abounds here, as guys such as Chris Coghlan and Ricky Nolasco, among others.

Washington Nationals: Those who look past bad MLB teams in terms of fantasy value are not the brightest bulbs in the box. The Nationals offer plenty of drafting material if values are met during the draft. Ryan Zimmerman is my personal third base player to target this year considering his potential and his current draft-day standing. Stephen Strasburg can be lights-out, as his recent nine-strikeout spring performance illustrated, but he’ll start the season in the minors. Expect an early-season call-up, however. Even rookie Drew Storen has upside as a potential closer at some point for Washington once he is called up from AA Harrisburg.

Best fantasy hitter: Hanley Ramirez
 
Best fantasy pitcher: Roy Halladay
 
Pitching fantasy MVP: Ricky Nolasco
 
Hitting fantasy MVP: Ryan Zimmerman
 
Fantasy rookie: Stephen Strasburg
 
Division sleeper: Martin Prado

Division bust: Ryan Howard

What are your opinions of the NL-East from a fantasy perspective?

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We’re not reinventing penicillin here, but stumbling across two sleepers while doing research that really had no beginning point is one of those beneficial mistakes.

While reviewing my elite 5×5 hitters post I mistakenly thought Rays outfielders Carl Crawford and BJ Upton were each expected to score 100 runs. The question, then, which hitter will benefit in the RBI category?

The truth is, Crawford and Upton are 30-steal locks. The only players that benefit from that are Crawford and Upton.

Luckily for us, I didn’t realize my mistake until after most of the research had been done. Two Rays players stood out as potential super values in 2010 drafts.

First let’s talk about the more likely sleeper.

Pat Burrell

Pat Burrell hit just 14 homers, scored 45 runs and drove in 64 in a disappointing 2009. He only had 412 at-bats and his home run to fly ball rate was half what it was in just about every other season in his career. If he’s good enough or finds himself bathing in the awesome of a hot streak, Burrell could find himself with opportunities for more runs and RBIs than a lot of experts give him credit for.

Considering all that, we should all lean on his optimistic projections rather than the middle-of-the-road ones. That puts him at 70/25/75/0/.250. That’s not great, as a DH, Burrell can only fill your UTIL slot, but he’s probably about as good as anybody else you’ll be picking in the last round.

The next Rays sleeper is a really deep one.

Fernando Perez

Currently the fourth option in right field and the backup to Upton in center, Fernando Perez has got plenty of competition.

However, Perez could give the Rays a third outfielder with 30 steals if given the opportunity.

The three sets of projections used to compile the elite 5×5 lists under review here at Chinstrap Ninjas in recent weeks have Perez going for 50/5/25/20/.260. Minor league statistics portend greater things for the 27-year-old, if he’s given an opportunity — like Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler really not working out in right field, maybe?

Perez put up 33-, 32- and 43-steal seasons in the minors to go with .288, .308, .307 averages and 123, 84 and 86 runs.

The issue here, again, is opportunity. As with any late-game sleeper, you remember the name Fernando Perez — either for at the end of your draft or for when he gets that opportunity mid-season.

Who are your late-round sleepers for 2010?

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• You want speed? These guys will give you speed (8)
• Nine fantasy baseball sleepers for the end game (4)
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• Disclaimer: Fantasy baseball sleepers and busts (4)

Several deserved even further research. Having both Brewers 1B Prince Fielder and OF Ryan Braun as elite RBI producers was near the top.

Both Braun and Fielder are stars. They’ll probably drive in themselves with their elite 30+-homer power, but they are going to need some help.

After looking at a handful of projected lineups, it’s pretty obvious these people are chemically enhancing their lives. Here’s how I see the top working out, at least early:

Alcides Escobar, SS – Projections are all over the place, and I’m sure ours will fluctuate wildly between now and Opening Day. The good side of his expert projections give Escobar 70/5/50/30/.290. In his AAA year, Escobar had a 76/4/34/42/.298. His best minor league numbers — 95/8/76/42/.328 — are great. A big-time prospect, let’s see how he reacts.

Casey McGehee, 3B – After rostering McGehee in several leagues last year, I’m excited to see what he can do. Experts are giving him a 60/15/70/0/.280 line. He did have a high Batting Average on Balls In Play last year, so the average could drop to .280, but the reason for his less than exciting numbers in the other categories is Matt Gamel. Not so sure that’s a good idea. Coaches want McGehee to bat second, that’s a vote of confidence. More soon.

Braun — Will hit 3rd. Some fan lineups have him batting second. Absurd.

Fielder — Some of those same lists have Fielder hitting third. These people are on hallucinogens.

Corey Hart, OF – Was injured last year and really disappointed. While you can blame a lot on Hart’s injuries last year, his home runs per fly ball rate has declined for two consecutive years, so leave your optimism at the door. Experts have him putting up a 75/20/70/15/.270 line.

Rickie Weeks, 2B – Weeks is all over the place on fan lineups. Some have him batting leadoff, some have him hitting cleanup, others have him hitting in the back end of the lineup. Expert projections have him posting 80/15/50/15/.260. He had abnormally high BABIP and HR/FB rates in 2009.

The end-game sleeper in the crowd is Carlos Gomez.

Gomez’s defense is so good he’ll keep his center field job even if struggling at the plate, like he did with the Twins in 2009. He hit just .229 with 51 runs and only 14 steals. It was nothing like the budding star we all saw in 2008.

When Gomez won the Twins’ CF job in 2008, he scored 79 runs, drove in 59, stole 33 bags and hit nearly 30 points higher. He also became the first Twin in 22 years to hit for the cycle.

Playing for the Met’s AA club in 2006, Gomez scored a 53/7/48/41/.281 line. His minor league BABIP was well over .300 and it was .330 in 2008, meaning that his .286 BABIP in 2009 looks unlucky. He has the potential to bounce back at least 30 points in BABIP which should boost his average considerably.

There are no guarantees with any player or any advanced statistic, but Gomez has the makings of a sleeper, particularly if Escobar struggles at the plate and the team decides they need speed at the top of the lineup.

Expert projections: 60/6/45/25/.260

My optimistic projections: 80/6/45/35/.270

He’s getting picked at the end of drafts (234.04 ADP at Mock Draft Central) if he’s being picked at all (not being picked in 15% of drafts), so if he makes those optimistic 80 runs and 35 steals he provides considerable value.

The other non-pitcher hitter in the lineup is catcher Greg Zaun. But Zaun is just keeping the backstop warm for a couple prospects.

Related posts

• Fantasy shortstop value players that need to be on your radar screen (4)
• Nine fantasy baseball sleepers for the end game (4)
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• 15 RBI kings to build around in 2010 (0)

While it’s still ultra early in this 2010 baseball season, the Chinstrap Ninjas have been dicing through fantasy information like a Slap Chop does to onions (and celery, and tomatoes — ninjas love salsa).

We’ve covered a lot of bases, knocked a few out of the park and logged a couple backwards Ks in the last month. It takes effort to dig back into our archives, so we went ahead and did it for you. Here’s a list of links to all of the content on our baseball channel since the year turned over to 2010:

Sleepers

Outfield sleepers

Shortstop sleepers

Third base sleepers

Second base sleepers

First base sleepers

Nine sleepers for the end game

2009 sleeper review

Disclaimer: Sleepers and busts

Busts

Eight stars to stay away from

Busted Ninja busts from 2009

Disclaimer: Sleepers and busts

Statistics

17 strikeout aces for 2010

13 pitchers that will win Wins in 2010

23 stolen base masters for 2010

24 home run kings for 2010

General strategy

An unsexy approach to drafting a catcher

Battle to the Death: Pujols vs. Ramirez

Every closer and his competition in 2010

The top-10 for 2010 (so far)

Ben Zobrist

Willy Taveras trade ramifications

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• Notes Ninja-style (i.e. with BLOOD!) [FBB] (0)

Every other category they get credit for can be affected both positively and negatively by the offense and defense around him.

Cherish the strikeout pitcher. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the hurlers who are most likely to get you at least 180 strikeouts in 2010 based on three different sets of projections.

Average draft position values are in parentheses:

Tim Lincecum, Giants (12.49) – Every list had Lincecum at the top. If you were going call just one player a lock for 220+ strikeouts in 2010, make it Lincecum.

Justin Verlander, Tigers (43.72) — Verlander was as much of a regular at the top of lists as Lincecum. Look at that ADP. Then look at Grienke’s and Sabathia’s.

Zack Grienke, Royals (28.07) – Can he maintain that outstanding level he had last year? The projectionists seem to think he’ll at least keep his K rate up.

Javier Vazquez, Yankees (61.98) — His ERA and WHIP aren’t always outstanding, but Vazquez has always been a strikeout pitcher.

Felix Hernandez, Mariners (28.82) — King Felix turns 24 in April. Could he be wearing a strikeout king crown before he’s done?

Dan Haren, Diamondbacks (38.9) — In the wins post we mentioned his first-half Hyde to second-half Jekyll. along those same lines, he could have 140 Ks by the break and finish under 200.

Roy Halladay, Phillies (31.64) — Few pitchers are as consistently great as Halladay.

CC Sabathia, Yankees (29.24) — Another pitcher locked in for 200 strikeouts.

Jon Lester, Red Sox (59.34) — Jumped from 152 Ks in 2009 to 225 in 2009 despite getting seven less innings pitched. Is that a legit jump? He’ll probably be closer to 170-180 than 220 in 2010.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (103.32) — He’ll be just 21 in March and already has a 180 K season under his belt. He got it in just 171 innings.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies (104.52) — A Rockies pitcher is a legit fantasy star? Believe it.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (91.56) — Gallardo was great in 2009, and at age 25 we probably haven’t seen his best yet.

AJ Burnett, Yankees (126.49) — Threw more than 200 innings for the second consecutive season and struck out 195, following up his 231K 2008.

Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (122.59) — Has a 200 K season under his belt, but regressed a bit last year. he’ll be 26 this season.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox (85.29)– A punchout machine, Beckett has pitched 200 innings in three of the last four seasons.

Matt Cain, Giants (87.03) – He may not be as good as he was last year, but Cain’ll get you 180 Ks.

Cole Hamels, Phillies (99.81) — Even in a mediocre season Hamels had 168 strikeouts. He’ll bounce back in 2009 and prove he belongs on this list.

Those 13 starting pitchers are the most likely to get you more than 180 strikeouts in 2010, but you’d be smart to grab a couple of the following sleepers, too. Jonathan Sanchez will get 200 Ks this year. Bank on it. It also wouldn’t surprise many people of Johan Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Wandy Rodriguez, Max Scherzer, Rich Harden and Tommy Hanson finish with 200 Ks and as top-20 strikeout pitchers in 2010.

In 2009, 21 pitchers struck out 180 or more batters. Here’s the breakdown:

230 or more

Verlander, Lincecum, Greinke and Vazquez

200-229

Lester; Haren; Hernandez; Adam Wainwright, Cardinals; Halladay; Gallardo

180-199

Beckett; Jimenez; Sabathia; Burnett; Nolasco; Rodriguez; Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies; Josh Johnson, Marlins; Matt Garza, Rays; Kershaw; Cliff Lee, Mariners.

This is the fourth in a series that looks at the players most likely to excel in fantasy baseball’s 5×5 categories. The other posts so far highlighted home runs, steals and wins.

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Everth Cabrera played 103 games for the Padres in 2009 as a rookie, swiping 25 bases and showing that he could become a solid source of steals over an entire season. He’s still young and prone to inconsistency at the plate, but worth a late, late flyer as a stopgap with upside. Check out ep’s sleepers to watch for more on Cabrera’s upside.

Elvis Andrus was a sleeper candidate last year as a rookie for the Rangers … a rookie who forced Texas’ hand in moving ss fixture Michael Young to third base. Andrus had some growing pains, but he still led all shortstops with 33 steals. He is only 21 years old and hitting on top of a potent Rangers lineup. The sky’s the limit with Andrus, who should be a fantasy starter at a backup’s price.

Another deep sleeper? How about the guy who’s replacing J.J. Hardy in the Brewers’ infield this year. Alcides Escobar is projected to fill the starting role for the Brew Crew, and has plenty of potential. How much? He hit .298 with four home runs and 42 stolen bases last year in AAA ball. If Escobar winds up on top of a lineup that features both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, he could see a serious stat explosion. He’s also one of ep’s sleepers to watch.

Asdrubal Cabrera for some reason is usually lumped in with the second basemen, but many forget that Cabrera is eligible at ss, too. He’s coming off a decent 2009 campaign that saw him swipe a career-high 17 bags and hit a solid .308 average – thanks especially to a .370 average in the month of August alone. That was during a season that saw him miss time with a shoulder injury in June. Cabrera’s star is on the rise, and his dual-eligibility is a big asset, too.

Who are you targeting as a value shortstop this year? Let us know in the comments below. Also, don’t miss my less-than-sexy catcher drafting strategy, along with sleepers at first base, second base and third base.

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It was 12-year-old who had just finished using a Coleman propane cook stove. Within seconds of turning it off, he decided to touch the burner, jumping back and screaming in pain a split second later.

A Scout leader ran over to console the crying kid, asking what happened.

The 12-year-old says, “I did this,” and put the same hand back on the hot burner.

Stupidity, some say, is defined by doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

So I wonder why I keep drafting Kansas City’s talented yet consistently underachieving Alex Gordon as a sleeper third baseman every year, it seems, since the dawn of time.

And the sad thing is, I’ll be looking to draft him again this year — along with these guys (check out my sleeper picks at catcher, first base and second base, as well):

Alex Gordon has burned plenty of fantasy baseball managers, and will be bypassed by many in your respective drafts, for good reason. Ep is one who plans to avoid Gordon in 2010. However, based on talent alone, he may be falling far enough in most drafts to have value. Many projected him as a sleeper last season and he quickly disappointed with a .095 batting average through April before surgery to repair a tear in his right hip cartilage. He was back in July, but struggled and was demoted to the minors. At that point, Gordon totally fell off most people’s radar … and there’s a good chance that your leaguemates may have missed his .280 average with three homers and 11 RBI in the final month of the season. Not stats to get super-giddy about, but if Gordon follows through with excessive weight training this preseason like he promised at the end of the 2009 campaign, he may be able to tap into the vast potential that saw him drafted second overall in 2005. Not saying you should draft him as your starting third baseman, but somewhere in the last two rounds as a guy who could surprise with around 20 homers and double-digit steals if the planets align.

Jake Fox, now with the Oakland Athletics, is another player with lots of potential … enough so that ep had Fox on his radar five months ago.  Fox destroyed Triple-A competition last year with the Cubs to the tune of .409 and 17 homers in just 45 games. He fared well in spot duty in the majors, but was buried beneath Aramis Ramirez on the depth chart. His trade to Oakland will provide the extra playing time he needs to excel, and as an extra bonus, Fox is eligible at OF as well as 3B in 2010 (although his value will be at third). He’s a player worth taking a risk on late in your draft.

Gordon Beckham will technically play second base this season for the White Sox, but will still be eligible at third. One of the most valuable mid-season pickups for fantasy owners in 2009, Beckham’s 14 home runs surprised even the most optimistic of projectionists. He does not have a track record of going deep and lacks a true power swing, but Beckham still easily could provide a 20/10 (HR/SB) campaign in 2010 … putting him in decent company among third basemen.

Ryan Zimmerman plays for the Nationals, but he doesn’t show it. One of just a few bright spots for Washington in 2009, Zimmerman showed plenty of power ability with 33 home runs (tied with Evan Longoria and behind just Mark Reynolds in terms of home runs by a third baseman). Some would consider Zimmerman a sell-high type player after jacking the ball more than twice what he accomplished in 2008 … however Zimmerman was scorching in the second half of 2009 (.297, 18 homers, 54 RBI) and improved his overall season batting average for the second consecutive season. These trends tell me that Zimmerman has plenty of potential left in the tank for 2010 and beyond. He may offer any speed potential, but Zimmerman is still a very solid value option for 2010.

One player you won’t see on any of my teams in 2010 is David Wright. Sure, he’s averaged a .311 batting average and 25 stolen bases over the past three seasons, but his major power outage (from 33 long balls in 2008 to 10 in 2009) is a very bad sign and the Mets continue to flounder to put talent around Wright. While I never signal out any player as a guy I’ll never own (for the right price, every player has value), but Wright will continue to be drafted as a top-three third baseman, and there is little to believe that players drafted ways, ways after him won’t produce similar numbers. ep agrees.

What is your opinion on third base in 2010? Who are your sleepers at third base? Do you see third base as surprisingly shallow as second base is surprisingly deep? We’d love to hear your comments below.

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However, every year one or two of those players will emerge from the ashes of their “talented but…” label. How can we determine who they will be?

We can’t see it with perfect clarity — as discussed in our disclaimer post — but we can single out players that are more likely than others:

Kyle Blanks — There was no doubt Blanks was going to be at the top of the list. I’m most excited about his potential, despite the fact he calls cavernous PetCo home. He did hit six of his 10 homers at home last year and showed some significant power in a few at-bats. His minor league bests (94/24/100/11) is probably out of the question, but an 80/25/90/.275 line isn’t bad for an outfielder. He’ll qualify at both OF and 1B in 2010 and he wasn’t even picked in a recent experts mock draft.

Jonathan Sanchez — If you seek power pitchers, and if you don’t you really should, snag Sanchez. His ERA is going to be in the 4.2s and4.3s, but he’ll also get you a K per inning. There aren’t many pitchers like that — at least ones who are gauranteed 170+ innings — to be had in the final round of your draft.

Alcides Escobar — He’s one of those guys who feels a little too trendy to be a sleeper because everyone’s touting him. However, his minor league record shows a .300 hitting middle infielder who could score 75 runs and steal 35 bases. It’s another case for not picking Jacoby Ellsbury, one of the players you need to avoid in 2010.

Everth Cabrera — Staying with the anti-Ellsbury debate, Cabrera’s fast and should steal 30-to-40 bases this year. The Padres shortstop stole 73 bags in the minors in 2008. He didn’t hit a lick in 2009, but his batting average on balls in play was well below what he’s done throughout his career. Again, we’re talking about a last-round middle-infielder who could get you 70/4/55/35/.270.

Drew Stubbs — Hey, excessive-speed-available-at-the-end-of-the-draft, how are you? Stop me if you’ve heard this one, Stubbs could steal 40 bags in 2010. Stubbs’ BABIP is also speaking to us. It says Cincinnatti’s starting center fielder will be better than the .267 he hit last year.

Garrett Jones — Like Blanks, Jones has more value as an outfielder than as a first baseman. Unfortunately, he’s got less help than Blanks. We could still expect 65/25/80/10/.300, and that’s not bad for a late-round outfielder pick.

Matt Capps — As Nationals closer, we can pencil him in for high-20s, low-30s saves. He should post an ERA around 4.00, too. Avoid the Joe Nathans, pick up a couple Cappses and you’ll be fine.

Wade Davis — I could ramble here, but instead you could go back and look at Jonathan Sanchez’s listing five spots up and understand Davis will give you a better ERA, but probably a few less innings, Ks.

Mike Napoli – We can’t close out this list without mentioning at least one catcher. There are flashy young prospects like Buster Posey out there, but you’d be better off with Napoli until next year. The Angels catcher doesn’t play every day, but is a lock for 20 homers and could hit 25 if he stays healthy again in 2010. That’s a big if because he was injured the previous two seasons, but with where you’ll get him you can take chances.

How did I come to these conclusions? Well, just like I did in the busts post yesterday, I’m going to tell you the methodology.

Three-year averages, minor league statistics, advanced statistics and some gut were used in the making of this list. There were a few guys I tagged for listification, but I couldn’t put them in the list proper.

Here are a few of the more interesting cases:

Desmond Jennings – He stole 52 bags in the minors in 2009, but doesn’t have a starting job in the majors. Could you take a flier on him in your final round? Yes. Should you in a dynasty league? Absolutely. But in your random redraft league, we need to take a wait and see. If he tears it up in the spring and gets a starting job, he could get 76/5/55/35/.285.

Brian Matusz — The Orioles touted pitching prospect was a K per inning pitcher in the minors with very low decimals. However, his debut was significantly less impressive. He could get you 160 Ks in 150 innings and a 4.00 ERA.

David Freese — He’s going to be the starting third baseman in St. Louis, but he’s not as impressive as you might remember him. If he slashes 77/15/80/.300 you should be very happy.

Randy Wells — Another player who we remember well from 2009. He should have a low ERA again, but he’s not a power pitcher (104 Ks in 160 innings in 2009).

Neftali Feliz — His stuff is filthy, but until he’s got full-time closer or starter duties, he shouldn’t be on a list like this. Now if he moves into a role between now and your draft, you would really like to have his K per innings skills on your team.

Colby Rasmus – If he hits a 70/20/60/10/.270 like I think he will, he’s not very exciting. Rasmus does have power upside, but he hasn’t been able to show it yet.

Will any of these players live up to their billing? Who do you think has the best chance to be a super sleeper in 2010?

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• Fantasy shortstop value players that need to be on your radar screen (4)
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Not bad, but there’s no way the average will stay that high when we review the sleepers. Right?

By their very definition — discussed in more detail in our disclaimer post — we shouldn’t have an above .500 record on sleepers and busts.

They’re too risky.

So, how did we stack up in the sleeper ranks? What will these players do in 2010? Let’s discuss it.

Chris Iannetta — Double digit homers, but didn’t hit much of anything else. He lost his every day job to Yorvit Torrealba. He’s expected to open as the starter again in 2010, but Iannetta won’t make this list again.

Joey Votto — To call Joey Votto a Chinstrap Ninjas pick would be a ridiculous understatement. He didn’t disappoint, increasing his runs and homers (although slightly) while hitting .322. And he missed 31 games.

Aaron Hill — Hill’s performance was more of a return to form, but he did provide a huge value to fantasy owners who took a chance on him. All of the numbers from his pre-injury season in 2007 pointed to a 90-run, 20-homer, 90-RBI type season. Hill scored a 101/36/108 line and hit .286.

Alex Gordon – I’m done giving you chances Alex Gordon. The Royals 3B had surgery early, was ineffective on his return and was demoted. His numbers are so disgraceful we’re not going to print them here.

Elvis Andrus — He had an excellent season, stealing 33 bases and scoring 72 runs. He only hit .267, but he hit .280 with 25 RBIs and 17 steals after the All-Star break. That’s a sign of things to come.

Ryan Spilborghs — This was a bad miss. Spilborghs followed up his promising 2008 by walking less and striking out significantly more. He hit only .241, .72 points lower than the year before.

Cameron Maybin — He’ll probably be a starter this year, but he was very limited in 2008. He had a nice September (.282-3-9), but this one was a miss, too.

Nelson Cruz — Called out 30 homers and 120 RBIs last year, that was a bit off, but not by much. Cruz finally got at-bats and racked up 33 homers, 20 steals, 75 runs and 76 RBIs. He’s not going to be a value pick in 2010.

John Danks — Wasn’t bad (3.77 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 13 wins) but he saw his strikeouts drop despite throwing a career high in innings pitched.

Jair Jurrjens — The opposite of Danks, Jurrjens got more wins, more strikeouts, cut his WHIP and his ERA by a full run. He threw 30 more innings last year than he did in 2008.

Manny Parra — Bombed. ERA jumped almost two runs, WHIP almost .30 points and walked more batters despite throwing 20 less innings than in 2008.

Brett Anderson — I’m claiming Anderson as a win. While he didn’t break out like the next Francsico Liriano, his first taste of pro ball ended with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks in 175 innings. He finished 11-11 for the Athletics.

Max Scherzer — Regressed a bit in ERA and WHIP, but he struck out 174 in 170 innings. After last season, there’s no doubt he’s one of baseball’s next fireballers.

Jason Motte – Another “breakout player” who lost a starting job in 2009. He’s a K per inning reliever, but the Cardinals aren’t going to hand Motte the keys to the closer job out of spring training unless Ryan Franklin completely falls apart.

Joel Hanrahan — Called Hanrahan the next Joakim Soria. Yep, 0-for-2 on relievers. Hanrahan. He got blasted in several games, saved only five all year and saw his ERA and WHIP rise considerably despite increaseing his K rate. Octavio Dotel is penciled in as the closer in PIttsburgh right now. Hanrahan could replace him, but if you drafted him in 2009 it was a disappointment.

So, the final tally for breakout players is 7-for-16. That brings the final record for Chinstrap Ninjas’ 2009 sleepers and busts to 14 hits in 29 tries.

Coming tomorrow: 5 players to avoid in 2009.

Did you pick any of these “sleepers in 2009?” Did they affect your season? Let us know in the comments.

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In the 2009 preseason, I told you to avoid five players and called several other stars mortifying.

Were they as bad as I suspected?

Matt Wieters – He only had 108 at-bats before the All-Star game. Avoiding him in your draft saved you a wasted pick. He was decent in the second half, and has the potential to move into the elite ranks in 2010. He’s a top-4 catcher if you’re taking an unsexy approach to drafting a catcher in 2010.

Matt Holliday – This is an interesting situation. He was on this list because he was moving into Oakland’s cavernous stadium and his pre-All-Star break numbers are an absolute win. However, his numbers jumped considerably after he joined the Cardinals. If the rules change in the middle of the game, it’s not fair to the winner or loser. I’m claiming this one as a win, but as a full-time Cardinal, Holliday’s not making this list in 2010.

Garrett Atkins – Check out Atkins stats. Home, away, early, late, you cannot find a redeeming quality anywhere. He’s not even with the Rockies any more. He’s wearing Orioles orange in 2010.

David Ortiz – The Red Sox hitter turned slugger turned in a 28-homer, 99-RBI campaign. Not bad, but as a DH he has limited roster appeal and, if you didn’t heed the warning hear at Chinstrap Ninjas, he destroyed your batting average (.238 in 2009). 2010? No. Just stay away.

Carlos Zambrano – While Zambrano was a decent play, helping owners in ERA (3.77) and strikeouts  (152), he logged the least innings (169) of any season of his career since becoming a full-time starter. He pitched 100 innings and had 82 strikeouts in the first half of the season, but he’s trending downward. You don’t want that on your roster in 2010, do you?

So, the full tally is 5-for-5 so far.

Now, on to the mortifying stars. Just something to keep in mind, I never exactly told readers to avoid these players, just let them know that I was avoiding them for various reasons. As you’ll be able to tell in a moment, some of my teams weren’t too good in 2009.

Tim Lincecum, Evan Longoria, Jacoby Ellsbury and Josh Beckett all broke personal bests in several statistical categories. It’d be foolish to expect anything less in 2010.

Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon held steady in the important categories, but in my defense my argument was that these closers would have to be drafted too high. They won’t represent much of a value in 2010 either because they are two of the best closers in baseball.

The only wins I can claim here are:

Vernon Wells – While youngster Adam Lind took off in 2009, Wells was grounded. He improved his steals considerably from the year before, matching a career high with 17. However, despite playing in 50 more games he saw a decrease in homers, RBI and batting average. His home runs and RBIs were the least he’s had in any season since becoming a full-time player in 2002.

Joba Chamberlain – My fear was that he was going to move back to the bullpen by the end of the season, but he started 31 of his 32 games in 2009. However, he was less than spectacular in those games. He had a 4.75 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP and struck out only 133 in 157 innings pitched after being a more-than-a-K-per-inning player before that.

So, 7-for-13 if you’re scoring at home. That’s not bad. How did we do with our sleeper picks? We’ll review that in a post tomorrow. But if you want a sneak preview, check out the 2009 breakout players post.

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