A winning kicker strategy is to play kickers from teams expected to score a lot of points. On Thursday night, however, we got an example of why projecting kickers is so difficult.
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Early boom or bust Week 16 projections
Boom or bust Week 16 projections: QB | RB | WR | TE | FLEX | K | IDP
Boom or bust Week 16 PPR projections: RB | WR | TE | FLEX
Week 16 matchups: PASS | RUN | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | RB (Rec.)
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In recent weeks we’ve added a matchup factor to our kicker projections. Kickers are still difficult to predict, but we add 1.5 points for kickers with plus matchups over the season, in the last five weeks and in the last three weeks. If teams are allowing that kind of consistent points to kickers it has [...]
As we’ve done for the last few weeks, kickers with strong matchups get a boost and those without a good matchup get a few points subtracted. Kickers are near impossible to predict — for instance, Cody Parkey has a “bad” matchup but still went bananas on Thanksgiving Day.
Just like last week, I slapped the boom or bust label on our kickers again. I went in and made some manual adjustments based on matchup. I added 1.5 points to any player with a good matchup and subtracted 1.5 from players with bad matchups. The Bears have allowed 11 fantasy points per game to [...]
I usually don’t throw the boom or bust tag on the kicker projections, but I crunched some matchup numbers and made some manual adjustments. That’s why Kai Forbath, Graham Gano, Blair Walsh and Ryan Succop are all in the top six this week.
It’s always a good bet to play kickers and defenses on teams expected to score a lot of points. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see Mike Nugent — against the Jaguars — and Steven Hauschka — against the Raiders — atop the list this week.