Today starts Part II of he 2010 season, even if it isn’t a full second half — some teams already have more than 90 of the 162 games in — it’s a natural middle point.
It’s not exact, but multiply each players current statistics by two and it gives us a barometer to compare against preseason projections. After reading jzak’s awesome review of his bold predictions — the most popular fantasy baseball article on the site for several days running — and CJones’ comment on the preseason Top 20, I figured it was time to face up to the masses for a portion of my first foray into projections.
Not a lot of analysis after the names today because there isn’t a lot of time — work… uh, let’s call them work-related issues for now, have me battling the clock like 24’s Jack Bauer. The mess will be over this week and normalcy shall return.
Like I said, not a lot of analysis, but in this case I think the numbers speak for themselves. I’ve included preseason projections (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG for hitters and W/SV/K/ERA/WHIP for pitchers) and the current inexact pace of the players in the preseason Top 10 and top 20:
1. Albert Pujols — I’d call this a hit so far, despite Pujols struggles at time this season. Predicted: 110/40/120/10/.325 … Pace: 110/42/128/18/.308
2. Hanley Ramirez — Being dogged and benched for not playing hard, Ramirez wasn’t living up to expectations early in the season. However, Han-Ram is close to my projections. Predicted: 115/30/115/30/.320 … Pace: 100/26/106/36/.301
3. Alex Rodriguez — Hasn’t really been the A-Rod we know and love/hate. Predicted: 100/35/110/15/.290 … Pace: 92/28/140/4/.269
4. Chase Utley — Forever more, Utley’s preseason projections will be cut down to reflect his injury-proneness. Predicted: 105/35/110/15/.290 … Pace: 98/22/74/10/.277
5. Ryan Braun — On pace for a little less power and a little more speed. We’ll take it. Predicted: 105/35/110/15/.310 … Pace: 116/26/108/24/.292
6. Mark Teixeira — Hasn’t come around late in the first half as usual, but is still on pace to shatter my run projections and come close to the homer total. Predicted: 95/35/115/1/.295 … Pace: 126/34/120/0/.254
7. Matt Kemp — On pace to surpass the runs, power and RBI, but his average has been a bit of a disappointment. He was getting picked even higher than 7th in a lot of leagues. Predicted: 95/25/95/30/.305 … Pace: 116/32/102/30/.261
8. Prince Fielder — After struggling to start the season, Fielder has fought his way back to a near 40-homer pace. His RBI have been abominable for a power producer picked in the top 10. Predicted: 95/40/125/1/.290 … Pace: 106/40/78/2/.265
9. Evan Longoria — The numbers speak for themselves: He’s clearly been better than I thought he’d be. Predicted: 90/30/100/10/.285 … Pace: 108/26/122/26/.300
10. Miguel Cabrera — Next year, I have to keep better track of which players I projected to be far better than the mainstream outlets. I do know I jacked Cabrera’s numbers up quite a bit and still didn’t meet the ridiculous amount he’s on pace for. Predicted: 95/35/115/5/.320 … Pace: 128/44/154/4/.346
11. Ryan Howard — Would you trade 12 homers for 15 more runs and an average that could help you win the category? Predicted: 95/45/130/5/.270 … Pace: 110/34/130/0/.294
12. Tim Lincecum — Hasn’t been his normal Freak-ish self, but Lincecum is on pace for more wins and more Ks than I thought he’d get. Predicted: 15/0/240/2.80/1.15 … Pace: 18/0/262/3.16/1.28
13. Joe Mauer — In hindsight, and for as much as I ripped Mauer apart in the preseason, I went all namby-pamby on the projections. Should have followed my gut and lowered his homers and RBI considerably. Predicted: 90/20/95/5/.330 … Pace: 94/8/70/2/.293
14. David Wright — Despite my predictions, I was afraid he wouldn’t bounce back. He has bounced back and is on pace to surpass in every category. Predicted: 95/25/95/25/.305 … Pace: 104/28/130/30/.314
15. Ian Kinsler — Chase Utley’s blurb about injury-prone players also applies to Kinsler. Predicted: 100/25/80/25/.275 … Pace: 94/8/60/16/.310
16. Carl Crawford — Like I told CJones in the comments of the original article, I wanted to pump up Crawford’s stats but felt like my personal bias was getting in the way. I was wrong to second guess. Predicted: 90/15/70/45/.295 … Pace: 140/22/100/62/.321
17. Troy Tulowitzki — Despite the injuries and his early struggles, Tulowitzki is still on pace to meet/surpass a couple projections. Predicted: 95/25/90/10/.290 … Pace: 94/18/68/14/.306
18. Mark Reynolds — If his batting average wasn’t so awful, I’d call this a hit. Everyone knows he’s a capable average-killer, but I have no excuse for a 46-point difference. Predicted: 90/35/95/15/.260 … Pace: 98/40/112/10/.214
19. Jacoby Ellsbury — Another player that I was calling a bust in the wee hours of the preseason morning, but I didn’t expect him to get hurt and bust this bad. Predicted: 95/10/60/55/.300 … Pace: 14/0/6/4/.250
20. Jimmy Rollins — Injury cost him quite a bit of the first half, so his numbers will look better by the end, but he won’t come close to reaching the projections. Predicted: 100/20/50/30/.270 … Pace: 36/8/36/6/.254
Well, now this discussion is up to you. Did you use this top 20? Get burned by Joe Mauer? Reap the benefits of Miguel Cabrera or Evan Longoria? Let us know in the comments.