We should have high confidence in these matchups.
We’re only talking about matchups that meet good/bad matchup criteria for the whole season, the last five weeks and the last three weeks. If a matchup doesn’t fit in all three categories, then it has to have a significant number in the last-five-weeks and last-three-weeks.
The players are ordered based on season-long adjusted fantasy points allowed. The numbers next to the names are fantasy points allowed by position and the NFL rank in that category in the last five weeks. For receivers we’ve included the yards the defense has allowed per game to that receiver type.
Top tight end matchups
Larry Donnell vs. Washington — 16.2 fantasy points per game, 5th — I’ll have quite a few shares of Larry Donnell this week. I’ll probably stack Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and Larry Donnell in at least one lineup. The Giants are expected to score 27 points this week and you don’t beat Washington on the ground.
Levine Toilolo vs. Pittsburgh — 11.8 points, 12th — I can’t recommend Toilolo, but with Julio Jones out and this matchup there’s a chance he could get in the end zone.
Luke Willson/Tony Moeaki vs. San Francisco — 17.7 points, 1st — I don’t care how good the matchup is, I’m not recommending any Seattle tight end.
Ryan Griffin vs. Indianapolis — 16.5 points, 2nd — Griffin had an 8-yard TD catch two weeks ago and hauled in a 25-yard pass last week. He’s a deep sleeper, but a sleeper nonetheless.
Zach Ertz/Brent Celek vs. Dallas — 13.6 points, 8th — Ertz was targeted three times last week, caught two of them and scored a 35-yard touchdown. Celek had a 5-catch, 100-yard game against the Panthers. If Ertz was getting Celek’s snaps he’d probably be considered a top-10 TE each week.
Worst tight end matchups
Rob Gronkowski/Tim Wright vs. Miami — 2.7 points, 1st — Gronkowski is 2-touchdowns and 150 yards waiting to happen, but it might be a little more difficult to come by than usual this week.
Andrew Quarless vs. Buffalo — 5.9 points, 2nd — You’re not starting Quarless in the semifinals this week. There’s somebody better on the waiver wire.
Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener vs. Houston — 6.9 points, 5th
Eric Ebron vs. Minnesota — 8.4 points, 9th
Heath Miller vs. Atlanta — 9.5 points, 12th