2016 Draft Kit

Top 30 fantasy football quarterbacks over the last five weeks of 2014

It can be helpful to look at end-of-season performance to spot trends going into the next season.

Maybe the game starts to slow down for a young quarterback who threw ducks all season. Or maybe an older quarterback just slows down after a hot start.

This post piggybacks on yesterday’s quarterback consistency rankings. When creating quarterback rankings I used both of these tools to break ties.

Fantasy Football 2015 Draft Kit | QB Consistency rankingsEarly top-25 | 25 Reasons why you shouldn’t draft players in the top 25Strength of Schedule DVOA | Team previews | The latest in fantasy football

Top-30 quarterbacks last 5 weeks of 2014

Chart legend: Season is total fantasy points for the 2014 season, p/g is fantasy points per game, AvgL5 is average fantasy points per game in the last five weeks, avgrnkL5 is a player’s average weekly rank at the position over the last five weeks. StDev is a player’s standard deviation over the Last 5. A higher standard deviation means a quarterback is more volatile and a lower number means they are more consistent. The chart is sorted by average fantasy points per game in the last five weeks.

Player Tm Season p/g AvgL5 avgrnkL5 StDev5
1 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 371.3 23.21 23.84 10.40 7.90
2 Ryan, Matt ATL 347.3 21.71 23.82 10.40 8.84
3 Wilson, Russell SEA 370.35 23.15 23.35 12.60 12.06
4 Rodgers, Aaron GNB 404.95 25.31 23.06 11.00 8.64
5 Brees, Drew NOR 374 23.38 22.55 12.00 8.59
6 Manning, Eli NYG 332.3 20.77 22.17 11.40 7.03
7 Flacco, Joe BAL 314.5 19.66 21.68 12.40 5.81
8 Romo, Tony DAL 316.05 19.75 21.22 13.00 8.04
9 Luck, Andrew IND 421.45 26.34 21.2 14.20 13.35
10 Rivers, Philip SDG 328.7 20.54 20.35 15.80 10.15
11 Newton, Cam CAR 297.25 18.58 20.27 14.80 13.64
12 Stafford, Matthew DET 309.45 19.34 20.2 14.40 8.38
13 Tannehill, Ryan MIA 335.05 20.94 20.03 14.60 8.90
14 Sanchez, Mark PHI 177.7 11.11 19.49 15.60 7.39
15 Bridgewater, Teddy MIN 220.85 13.8 19.3 14.20 3.44
16 Dalton, Andy CIN 278.6 17.41 17.55 18.00 8.95
17 Hill, Shaun STL 115.05 7.19 17.02 18.60 5.89
18 Kaepernick, Colin SFO 299.35 18.71 17 18.20 9.86
19 Brady, Tom NWE 332.15 20.76 16.99 18.00 7.95
20 Smith, Geno NYJ 192.05 12 16.56 18.80 9.60
21 Orton, Kyle BUF 220.1 13.76 16.5 19.00 9.02
22 Cutler, Jay CHI 317.8 19.86 16.43 17.80 11.34
23 Smith, Alex KAN 259.75 16.23 15.4 18.40 9.31
24 Carr, Derek OAK 240.6 15.04 14.99 21.00 7.09
25 Bortles, Blake JAC 215.3 13.46 14.23 21.60 4.04
26 Manning, Peyton DEN 379.65 23.73 14.09 19.80 4.83
27 McCown, Josh CLE 167 10.44 11.86 24.80 5.33
28 Griffin III, Robert WAS 114.3 7.14 11.57 21.80 11.11
29 Whitehurst, Charlie TEN 102.4 6.4 8.22 27.60 8.36
30 Lindley, Ryan ARI 32.1 2.01 6.42 30.80 9.01

Fantasy football quarterbacks in the last five weeks notes and analysis

It is very much worth noting that Cam Newton, Alex Smith, Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler each missed a game in the last five weeks and the spreadsheet formulas don’t take that into account. Realistically, they gave you a goose egg that week in fantasy as well, but for argument’s sake, if we assume they would have scored their per game averages those weeks we end up with a very different set of rankings.

Newton vaults all the way to the top in average points per game over the last five and his standard deviation drops from top-of-the-league to middle-of-the-pack. Cutler jumps from 22nd to 11th. His missed game was a benching in favor of Jimmy Clausen that lasted only one week. Smith moves from 23rd to 17th.

Average rank in the last five may be more meaningful than average fantasy points per game over the same span for players in season-long leagues and those playing cash games like 50/50s and head-to-heads in daily fantasy. DFS players who opt for big tournaments might want to focus on players like Russell Wilson, who had the third-highest PPG but finished a hair outside of the top-12 in average weekly ranking.

Top-12 most volatile quarterbacks over the last five weeks of 2014

Player Tm Season p/g AvgL5 avgrnkL5 StDev5
1 Newton, Cam CAR 297.25 18.58 20.27 14.80 13.64
2 Luck, Andrew IND 421.45 26.34 21.2 14.20 13.35
3 Wilson, Russell SEA 370.35 23.15 23.35 12.60 12.06
4 Cutler, Jay CHI 317.8 19.86 16.43 17.80 11.34
5 Griffin III, Robert WAS 114.3 7.14 11.57 21.80 11.11
6 Rivers, Philip SDG 328.7 20.54 20.35 15.80 10.15
7 Kaepernick, Colin SFO 299.35 18.71 17 18.20 9.86
8 Smith, Geno NYJ 192.05 12 16.56 18.80 9.60
9 Smith, Alex KAN 259.75 16.23 15.4 18.40 9.31
10 Orton, Kyle BUF 220.1 13.76 16.5 19.00 9.02
11 Lindley, Ryan ARI 32.1 2.01 6.42 30.80 9.01
12 Dalton, Andy CIN 278.6 17.41 17.55 18.00 8.95

Like I said above, Newton’s, Cutler’s, Griffin’s and Smith’s numbers are skewed a bit by missed games. Griffin is the only player who would remain on the adjusted list.

Teddy Bridgewater finished just outside the top-14 in average ranking over the last five weeks, but he was almost a lock to reach his 19.3 points per game with a standard deviation under four fantasy points. It shouldn’t be surprising to see Peyton Manning on a list like this, but it’s easier to stay consistent when you’re only scoring 14 fantasy points per game.

Top-12 most consistent quarterbacks over the last five weeks of 2014

Player Tm Season p/g AvgL5 avgrnkL5 StDev5
1 Bridgewater, Teddy MIN 220.85 13.8 19.3 14.20 3.44
2 Bortles, Blake JAC 215.3 13.46 14.23 21.60 4.04
3 Manning, Peyton DEN 379.65 23.73 14.09 19.80 4.83
4 McCown, Josh CLE 167 10.44 11.86 24.80 5.33
5 Flacco, Joe BAL 314.5 19.66 21.68 12.40 5.81
6 Hill, Shaun STL 115.05 7.19 17.02 18.60 5.89
7 Manning, Eli NYG 332.3 20.77 22.17 11.40 7.03
8 Carr, Derek OAK 240.6 15.04 14.99 21.00 7.09
9 Sanchez, Mark PHI 177.7 11.11 19.49 15.60 7.39
10 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 371.3 23.21 23.84 10.40 7.90
11 Brady, Tom NWE 332.15 20.76 16.99 18.00 7.95
12 Romo, Tony DAL 316.05 19.75 21.22 13.00 8.04

Ben Roethlisberger, who topped our overall chart, is also on our most consistent chart, which should make his dynasty owners happy.

Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo and Roethlisberger are the only quarterbacks to finish in the top-12 in the overall chart and the consistency chart.

So, are you going to draft Roethlisberger, Bridgewater, Newton, Flacco or Eli Manning based on their end-of-2014 performance? Will you wait longer for super sleeper or pick a quarterback early? Let us know in the comments.

May variance be in your favor today and every day.





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