2016 Draft Kit

Week 1 NFL projected scores based on Las Vegas scoring odds and over/unders — 2015 fantasy football

A ton of money changes hands in Las Vegas sportsbooks on NFL Sundays.

They have crack teams of number crunchers who are way better than me and you when it comes to guessing likely scores of NFL games.

Many sports fans have joked about a team kicking a late field goal to finish just under or over the betting line, as if the game was fixed or something. And, well, the game bettors play is kind of fixed, because those aforementioned number crunchers are so darn good at what they do.

It would be foolish for the fantasy football community to ignore these experts. We are better when we take the sums of many parts to form our opinions about players and situations, and Las Vegas betting odds need to be one of the primary parts of the equation.

Here are the projected scores using the current (early) over/under and betting odds for Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season:

Rankings: QB | PPR RB | PPR WR | PPR TE | PPR Flex (RB/WR/TE)K | DEF

Projected game scores | Game day weather

Week 1 schedule and projected scores

Day Away Score Home Score Time O/U
Thu Sep 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 22.25 New England Patriots 28.75 8:30 PM 51
Sun Sep 13 Carolina Panthers 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 22 1:00 PM 41
Cleveland Browns 18.5 New York Jets 21.5 1:00 PM 40
Green Bay Packers 28.25 Chicago Bears 21.75 1:00 PM 50
Indianapolis Colts 23.75 Buffalo Bills 21.25 1:00 PM 45
Kansas City Chiefs 19.75 Houston Texans 20.75 1:00 PM 40.5
Miami Dolphins 23.5 Washington Redskins 20 1:00 PM 43.5
Seattle Seahawks 22.75 St. Louis Rams 18.75 1:00 PM 41.5
Detroit Lions 21.5 San Diego Chargers 24 4:05 PM 45.5
New Orleans Saints 22.25 Arizona Cardinals 24.75 4:05 PM 47
Baltimore Ravens 22 Denver Broncos 27 4:25 PM 49
Cincinnati Bengals 23.5 Oakland Raiders 20.5 4:25 PM 44
Tennessee Titans 19.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.5 4:25 PM 42
New York Giants 22.75 Dallas Cowboys 28.75 8:30 PM 51.5
Mon Sep 14 Philadelphia Eagles 28.5 Atlanta Falcons 27 7:10 PM 55.5
Minnesota Vikings 19 San Francisco 49ers 22.5 10:20 PM 41.5

What’s the best way to use this information?

First, we should check for any blowouts. There are no huge blowouts, but the Cowboys, Patriots and Packers are all favored by five or six points.

Meanwhile, a point to a point and a half separates the Eagles and Falcons and Texans and Chiefs.

A home quarterback who’s going to be blown out is a sleeper, which is what some of us have been calling Jay Cutler already this preseason.

A winning team in a blowout –particularly the home team — is going to mean big points for their running back and potentially their defense. The Cowboys and Patriots fit that bill this week.

Close games mean all parts of the offenses will likely still be in play down to the wire, and in the case of the Eagles/Falcons tilt, we could see both teams putting up Madden numbers. Last team with the ball wins.

It’s also good to look at the over/unders. If two teams are expected to score 55.5 points, they are going to have a lot more fantasy points to go around than teams in a game with an O/U of 40.

That same concept can be applied to projected team score as well.

Here is a chart of teams with highest and lowest projected score for Week 1:

Projected scores
Dallas Cowboys 28.75
New England Patriots 28.75
Philadelphia Eagles 28.5
Green Bay Packers 28.25
Atlanta Falcons 27
Denver Broncos 27
Arizona Cardinals 24.75
San Diego Chargers 24
Indianapolis Colts 23.75
Cincinnati Bengals 23.5
Miami Dolphins 23.5
New York Giants 22.75
Seattle Seahawks 22.75
TB Buccaneers 22.5
San Francisco 49ers 22.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 22.25
New Orleans Saints 22.25
Baltimore Ravens 22
Jacksonville Jaguars 22
Chicago Bears 21.75
Detroit Lions 21.5
New York Jets 21.5
Buffalo Bills 21.25
Houston Texans 20.75
Oakland Raiders 20.5
Washington Redskins 20
Kansas City Chiefs 19.75
Tennessee Titans 19.5
Minnesota Vikings 19
Carolina Panthers 19
St. Louis Rams 18.75
Cleveland Browns 18.5

May variance be in your favor today and every day.

Comments are currently closed.

%d bloggers like this: