Last week, I didn’t even make it back to even. However, I was very close to a huge week.
I also feel like my lineups were all solid — compared to some of the smartest minds in the industry — they just didn’t come through with enough points in yet another huge scoring week..
I still haven’t won an NFL tournament, but I had a strong Marcus Mariota lineup last week and a strong Drew Brees lineup the week before. That tournament win is so close I can almost taste it.
And if I don’t win this week, I hope you do.
Despite the struggle last week, I still have quite a bit of confidence in our system. However it’s important to keep a few things in mind:
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 8. Only wager more if you play a lot of cash games and have found success there.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
OK, let’s get to this weeks sleepers and values at Draft Kings.
Week 10 daily fantasy: Draft Kings sleepers | FanDuel sleepers
Blake Bortles, $5,600, JAC at BAL — Baltimore is fourth-worst in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA and Bortles has a superstar-in-the-making receiver in Allen Robinson to throw to and the Jaguars signal-caller costs $3,000 — THOUSAND — less than Tom Brady.
Derek Carr, $5,800, OAK vs. MIN — On Wednesday, I called for this to turn into a sneaky shootout if Teddy Bridgwater plays. Carr-to-Amari Cooper should be in full effect against one of the most effective defenses in the NFL against No. 1 wide receivers.
Tom Brady, $8,600, NE at NYG — The most expensive player in DraftKingsland this week and he’ll likely be worth every penny. However, I’ll be paying down for some of the other values on this list who should be worth more than every penny.
Andy Dalton, $6,500, CIN vs. HOU — You know what I said about being worth more than the penny we’re paying, Dalton’s been that player all season. He has killer weapons in A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard
Kirk Cousins, $5,200, WAS vs. NO — This is another call I made in our projected scores/Las Vegas post. Cousins could pay huge dividends at QB in GPPs this week. It’s a great matchup for his favorite target, TE Jordan Reed.
Aaron Rodgers, $7,500, GB vs. DET — Rodgers costs $1,100 less than Tom Brady. That is an insane value. Oh, and Detroit is 30th in the NFL against the pass, according to DVOA.
Todd Gurley, $7,300, STL vs. CHI — Gurley is the most expensive running back on the board this week, but he went big again last week in a bad matchup. Now he gets the Bears who are second-worst in the NFL against the run according to DVOA. The only bad thing about Gurley is that there’s no surprise here. Everyone is going to own him despite how much he costs.
Mark Ingram, $6,400, NO at WAS — Ingram had a pile of touches last week, he just didn’t get into the end zone. Big bounce back here in the projected second-highest scoring game of the week.
Darren McFadden, $4,900, DAL at TB — This is another not-great matchup for McFadden, but his usage is so high and his price is so low, he has to be one of our cash game staples. In a not-great matchup last week, he helped us win. I expect the same this week.
Lamar Miller, $5,400, MIA at PHI — Like McFadden, Miller’s usage is so high and his price is so low, we have to consider him each week. However, Philadelphia’s defense is better than a lot of people think. I’ll probably limit my exposure to Miller, but I definitely won’t ignore him.
DeAngelo Williams, $6,500, PIT vs. CLE — You play running backs playing against Cleveland, especially when that running back is such a huge part of the offense like Williams is supposed to be. Like Miller, I’m going to have to consider him, but I’m pumping the brakes a bit because his price is so high.
LeGarrette Blount, $4,900, NE at NYG — Dion Lewis’ injury probably won’t affect Blount much, but he’s always a threat to score three touchdown as long as the Patriots are a threat to score 30 points. He’s a tournament-only play for me.
DeMarco Murray, $6,200, PHI vs. MIA — Miami is fourth-worst in the NFL against the run, according to DVOA. Since that horrible start, Murray has averaged 19.5 carries, 85 yards and .75 touchdowns over the last four games. This could be a huge spot for Murray.
Giovani Bernard, $4,700, CIN vs. HOU — The Texans allow 48 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Bernard has only one game all season with less than 62 total yards. He’s averaging 57 yards rushing per game and three catches per game.
James Starks, $4,900, GB vs. DET — It’s a big week for Rodgers as mentioned above, but it also could be a great spot for Starks. The Lions are fourth-worst in the NFL against the run. Of course, one of the big concerns here is the amount of usage Eddie Lacy is going to get. He’s still going to get carries. However, Starks’ price makes him a player we must consider in tournaments.
Jeremy Langford, $4,800, CHI at STL — Langford came up big filling in for Matt Forte last week. It’s a much tougher spot this week against St. Louis. However, like McFadden, Miller and Williams, Langford will be the only running game in town as long as Forte is out so we must consider him at a sub-$5,000 price.
Antonio Andrews, $3,700, TEN vs. CAR — Andrews has emerged as the lead back for Tennessee. That means there’s a heck of touches for him even against one of the best defenses in the league. And at under $4,000, he’s a player who could return huge value.
Jonathan Stewart, $4,300, CAR at TEN — The Titans are tenth-worst in the NFL at defending the run. That probably means a touchdown run or two for quarterback Cam Newton. But Stewart could get in too because Tennessee’s pass defense is good enough to force teams to use the run against them.
Justin Forsett, $6,000, BAL vs. JAC — The Jaguars are second in the NFL against the run according to DVOA but fourth-worst against the pass. That’s a situation where the defense forces teams to beat them through the air. But fantasy points allowed tells a bit different story. The Jaguars have allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs, including three multi-touchdown games.
Allen Robinson, $6,700, JAC at BAL — Everyone is on Allen Robinson this week against a struggling Ravens defense and they should be.
Demaryius Thomas, $7,400, DEN vs. KC — The Chiefs have allowed 96 passing yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, fourth-most in the NFL.
Julian Edelman, $8,200, NE at NYG — Like Kansas City, the Giants are poor against No. 1 wide receivers, allowing 88.6 yards per game, fifth-most in the NFL.
Alshon Jeffery, $7,100, CHI at STL — St. Louis is a tough defense, especially against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers. Jeffery, however, has returned to elite status but his price is still only $7,100. I’ll have him in tournaments, but that matchup pushes him out of my cash lineups.
Stefon Diggs, $5,100, MIN at OAK — Oakland can’t stop any receiver types, but they’ve allowed the second-most passing yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers. He’s also getting piles of targets. All of that coupled with this price makes him almost a must-play in both cash and tournaments.
DeAndre Hopkins, $8,700, HOU at CIN — It’s not a great matchup for Hopkins and his price should make people apprehensive. However, Hopkins is going to get a ton of targets like he does every week and he may have a little more room to move with Cecil Shorts returning this week.
Michael Crabtree, $5,800, OAK vs. MIN — Has 20 catches, 207 yards and four touchdowns combined in the last three weeks. That’s massive. Cooper is a great play, too, but Crabtree has been as good or better and he costs a pile less.
Brandon LaFell, $4,100, NE at NYG — The Giants have the 26th pass defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, but there are a lot of people out there who would tell you they have the worst pass defense, especially with Prince Amukamura out. LaFell had his welcome to 2015 game last week. This could be his welcome back to the elite ranks game.
Odell Beckham Jr., $8,800, NYG vs. NE — In the projected highest scoring game of the week, I expect Beckham and Eli Manning to put up some big garbage time numbers. And if the Giants have any chance of winning, it’s going to be through the air to Beckham. It will be difficult for me to start him in cash game though, because the Patriots have been effective against WR1s.
Randall Cobb, $6,700, GB vs. DET — If we’re expecting big things from Aaron Rodgers, Cobb should also be expected to have a huge game. Detroit has allowed 77.8 receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers. I expect Cobb to get to that number easily.
A.J. Green, $7,600, CIN vs. HOU — The Texans have allowed 56.2 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, the fourth-lowest average this season. however, DVOA suggests the Texans are 24th in the NFL against defending No. 1 wide receivers. We also expect a big week from Andy Dalton, which usually means good things for Green.
Jarvis Landry, $6,700, MIA at PHI — The Eagles defense is a little better than it gets credit for, however it allows 100.4 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, third-most in the NFL. Landry is also a PPR machine, which is huge at Draft Kings.
Jordan Reed, $4,600, WAS vs. NO — New Orleans allows 77.8 yards receiving to opposing tight ends, second-most in the NFL. I’m going to have to force myself to play a couple other tight ends this week because I’ll have Reed everywhere.
Rob Gronkowski, $8,000, NE at NYG — Gronk disappointed last week. However, this week he gets the worst TE defense in the NFL. The Patriots have to feed it to him this week.
Benjamin Watson, $4,300, NO at WAS — Despite Watson being a key contributor on one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, his salary is still only $4,300.
Greg Olsen, $6,300, CAR at TEN — I don’t really want any part of the Panthers passing offense this week. And Olsen is super expensive compared to most of the other players on this list. However, the Panthers are expected to score 24 points this week, tied for ninth-most in the NFL. We have to figure Olsen gets into the end zone at least once and I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored all three Panthers TDs in this game.
Gary Barnidge, $4,800, CLE at PIT — The Steelers have allowed seven touchdowns and the fifth-most PPR fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Barnidge has been targeted more and been effective as Rob Gronkowski this season. Where I don’t have Reed, I’ll probably have a lot of Barnidge. QB Josh McCown is questionable. If Johnny Manziel starts, I’ll probably move away from Barnidge. [UPDATE: Manziel is supposed to start and Barnidge has fallen in our rankings. He’s purely a tournament play this week.]
Eric Ebron, $3,300, DET at GB — The Packers are one of three teams in the NFL who have allowed more than 70 yards per game to opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed the eighth-most PPR fantasy points to opposing TEs.
Philadelphia Eagles, $2,700, vs. MIA
Detroit Lions, $2,100, at GB
Oakland Raiders, $2,100, vs. MIN
Dallas Cowboys, $2,500, at TB
Denver Broncos, $3,400, vs. KC
Green Bay Packers, $3,200, vs. DET