Last week was a tale of what could have been for me, but our rankings and these values helped me to a profitable week. I hope they did the same for you.
Let’s take a few moments to review last week’s picks before we get to this week’s sleepers and values.
If you had started the best Draft Kings lineup just from our picks last week, it would have looked like this:
Sam Bradford, Danny Woodhead, Chris Ivory, Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, Davante Adams, Martellus Bennett, Ameer Abdullah, Jets Defense.
It would have scored 185.24 fantasy points and had $4,100 in cap space left. That space could have been used to upgrade Bradford or Adams, the weakest parts of the lineup.
However, that 185 points would have won you most cash games and it would have put you in the top .5 or .6 percent in tournaments. I know how percentages work. Those numbers are correct. You would have been right around the top half of the top one percent of all fantasy players last week.
The lineup would have yielded $100 on a $20 Millionaire Maker ticket and $35 on a $3 Play Action ticket. I feel pretty good about those results.
The Millionaire Maker is back this week. Get in and use these values to help you pick a winner.
Now let’s get to our Week 2 sleeper and value picks.
Drew Brees, $7,800, NO vs. TB — Just under $8,000 is hardly a value, but based on what Marcus Mariota did last week and Tampa Bay’s horrendous performance against the pass last season, this might be Brees’ best performance of the season.
Andy Dalton, $5,800, CIN vs. SD — Matthew Stafford didn’t burn them last week, but the Chargers were even worse than the Buccaneers against the pass last season, according to Football Outsider’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It also doesn’t hurt that Dalton put up 269 and two touchdowns last week and A.J. Green was barely involved (5 catches for 63 yards). There’s room for the Bengals offense to grow.
Nick Foles, $5,500, STL at WAS — Foles impressed last week with 297 yards and a touchdown against the vaunted Seahawks pass defense. This week there is no vaunt. He faces the Redskins, the least efficient team against the pass in 2014, according to DVOA.
Danny Woodhead, $4,000, SD @ CIN — Woodhead posted 22.2 fantasy points last week but his salary only went up $300. Now he gets to face a Bengals team that was fifth-least efficient against the run last season.
Marshawn Lynch, $7,200, SEA @ GB — Sorry, another high-priced value, sure, but Matt Forte torched the packers for 141 yards and a touchdown last week. Lynch has to be salivating at the opportunity.
Justin Forsett, $6,200, BAL @ OAK — We got burned by Forsett last week. I’m sure a lot of other people did, too. That means many will likely shy away from him this week even though he’s facing the Oakland Raiders.
Ameer Abdullah, $4,500, DET @ MIN — The Vikings were probably a little better against the run than you remember them last season, but after Carlos Hyde‘s arrival against them last week, most running backs will likely be looking forward to facing them again this season. Abdullah showed well in his NFL debut, scoring a touchdown on his first carry. It was relatively easy — there was a huge hole and he had to make one move on one defender at the goal line — but it was still a 24-yard scoring play the first time he touched the ball.
Antonio Brown, $8,800, PIT vs. SF — I’m not trying to make you angry with all of these non-values. It’s just that for the second week in a row our formulas say there are absolute studs that will more than be worth the price. Brown is so far ahead of the competition this week it’s pretty ridiculous.
Jordan Matthews, $7,100, PHI vs. DAL — Matthews didn’t disappoint getting his first opportunity to be the top threat in the Eagles offense. Ten catches, 103 yards and 13 targets. This offense produces targets upon targets, which means Matthews will probably perform more like an $8,100 wide receiver than a $7,100 one.
Jarvis Landry, $5,900, MIA @ JAX — Landry tops one of my WR value boards to day and is third on the other one. Jacksonville has been a fantasy football goldmine for a opponents for some time. Last season they were the worst team in the NFL against No. 1 wide receivers. Most importantly, his salary barely moved from last week’s $5,600 despite a 20.7-point effort.
Kendall Wright, $5,000, TEN @ CLE — A few years ago, jzak brought up Wright in trade talks. I wasn’t overly excited because I hadn’t paid close attention to his stats. What he’s been able to do with three-bean salad at quarterback has been impressive. Last week we saw what he could do with a real quarterback at the helm. He’ll have to deal with Joe Haden quite a bit this week, but at his price he needs just four catches for 60 yards to pay off in cash games.
Heath Miller, $3,500, PIT vs. SF — People keep wanting Miller to be too old. Last week: 8 catches on 11 targets for 84 yards. Sorry, but he’s still here, effective and super-cheap at Draft Kings this week.
Jordan Reed, $3,700, WAS vs. STL — Reed showed up on the injury report today with a bad quad. The big probably with Reed his whole, short pro career has been injury. If he does play, there’s a good chance he’ll lead the team in targets again (11 last week) and be a red zone threat. QB Kirk Cousins likes to throw to him.
Travis Kelce, $5,100, KC vs. DEN — I only came into this with two tight ends on my list, but I’m throwing another one out there because of Reed’s injury concern. Kelce comes in as the third-most expensive tight end, but at a position where Rob Gronkowski‘s $7,300 price dominates, almost everyone else can be considered a value. Kelce took over last week as many people believed he was capable of doing. The Broncos were very average against tight ends last season, only 60.6 yards allowed per game on 8.1 pass attempts per game.
Baltimore Ravens, $2,900, at Oakland Raiders
Miami Dolphins, $3,300, at Jacksonville Jaguars
St. Louis Rams, $3,100, at Washington Redskins
Denver Broncos, $2,800, at Kansas City Chiefs