The most difficult part of this projection thing is rationing out the receiving yards. It’s nice that we have target data from the previous week, but the reality is that this whole thing is a gamble.
Luckily, the Falcons and Cardinals have two studly receivers who will get the majority of their teams’ looks in the passing game.
Just like last week, 2009 statistics factor in but we have added depth provided by Week 1. Again, this is no perfect model. There are many improvements that could be made but we had relatively good accuracy with it last week despite the flaws. Translation: Use these at your own discretion but they should be pretty darn good.
Projections have the Cardinals winning this one by a field goal, 19-16.
Last week Roddy White was targeted 23 times by Matt Ryan. That is a ridiculous amount. White made good on the opportunities, catching 13 for 111 yards.
Defenses won’t let stud players dominate, but given enough chances most stars find a way to shine. It’s doubtful White gets that many looks this week but it is possible. More importantly, the Cardinals were very generous to opposing wide receivers in Week 1.
Meanwhile, on the Cardinals side, every defense knows Larry Fitzgerald is the go-to guy. Most of the time he still can’t be stopped. He had 15 looks last week and caught only three. He’ll have much better luck this week against a team that got burned pretty hard by Hines Ward.
Tim Hightower is still a decent play, especially in PPR leagues. Beanie Wells is expected to play at this time (early Thursday), but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. It’ll be another slow week for those owners who spent a high pick on Michael Turner.
Derek Anderson got nicked up last week but should be fine for the game and has a very good matchup.
Derek Anderson, ARI: 21-34, 257 yards, TD, INT
Matt Ryan, ATL: 25-43, 241 yards, TD, INT
Tim Hightower, ARI: 50, TD, 4 catches, 25 receiving yards
Michael Turner, ATL: 85 yards, 1 catch, 5 receiving yards
LaRod Stephens-Howling, ARI: 20 yards, 2 catches, 5 receiving yards
Beanie Wells, ARI (expected to play): 45 yards, 2 catches, 10 receiving yards
Jerious Norwood, ATL: 5 yards, 1 catch, 5 receiving yards
Jason Snelling, ATL: 5 yards, 1 catch, 5 receiving yards
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI: 7-120, TD
Roddy White, ATL: 8-95
Harry Douglas, ATL: 6-75
Steve Breaston, ARI: 4-85
Eric Weems, ATL: 4-15
Early Doucet, ARI: 2-15
Tony Gonzalez, ATL: 4-40, TD
Matt Bryant, ATL: 2 FG, 1 XP
Jay Feely, ARI: 2 FG, 1 XP
Falcons: 2 sacks, INT, Fumble recovery
Cardinals, 2 sacks, INT