While the Dolphins and Vikings have the potential to provide fantasy fireworks, this game could land in the break spectrum of a make-or-break contest for fantasy owners.
If you’re an Adrian Peterson owner, you may want scroll down quickly or you may not want to read this at all.
Just like last week, 2009 statistics factor in but we have added depth provided by Week 1. Again, this is no perfect model. There are many improvements that could be made but we had relatively good accuracy with it last week despite the flaws. Translation: Use these at your own discretion but they should be pretty darn good.
The Vikings are projected to win 18.2 to 17.8. That’s close enough for anyone with Vikings doubts after week 1 to be very concerned about an 0-2 start.
Let’s get this big one out of the way first. Adrian Peterson will get some numbers, that is a certainty. However, there is very little chance he’ll break 95 yards this week, let alone 100.
Last week, the Dolphins defense shut down a Bills offense that gets all its juice from running backs. The Bills had just 50 yards on 17 carries and the most notable performance came from starter and rookie lightning rod C.J. Spiller, who had six yards on seven carries and eight receiving yards on four catches. That’s 14 yards on 11 touches.
In total, Buffalo backs touched the ball 21 times and came away with just 46 yards. Adrian Peterson is far superior to anything the Bills have and the running game is more developed in Minnesota, but those are pretty incredible numbers. The Dolphins were the 13th stingiest against running backs in 2009 then they added star linebacker Karlos Dansby (8 tackles, sack against BUF) in the offseason.
For Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams owners, it’s also worth noting that the Vikings gave up the fewest points to running backs in 2009, but were among the seven best matchups for backs in Week 1.
In-game, watch Antoine Winfield. He made nine tackles last week and kept the Saints receivers from breaking anything longer than a 29-yarder.
Chad Henne, MIA: 23-34, 207, TD
Brett Favre, MIN: 19-32, 199, TD
Adrian Peterson, MIN: 85 yards, 2 catches, 15 receiving yards
Ronnie Brown, MIA: 55 yards, TD, 2 catches, 20 receiving yards
Ricky Williams, MIA: 55 yards, 2 catches, 15 receiving yards
Albert Young, MIN: 5 yards
Toby Gerhart, MIN: 5 yards
Brandon Marshall, MIA: 8-80, TD
Percy Harvin, MIN: 3-55
Davone Bess, MIA: 5-45
Bernard Berrian, MIN: 4-30
Brian Hartline, MIA: 4-35
Greg Camarillo, MIN: 4-30
Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN: 5-70, TD
Anthony Fasano, MIA: 2-10
Dan Carpenter, MIA: FG, 2 XP
Ryan Longwell, MIN: FG, XP
Dolphins: 2 sacks
Vikings: 2 sacks