2016 Draft Kit

Week 3 FanDuel sleepers and value for 2015 fantasy football

While I’ve been having success at Draft Kings this season, my Yahoo experience hasn’t been quite as grand.

The first week I only played a $1 tournament lineup. It returned $7. Last week, I played two $2 tournament lineups and didn’t get squat in return.

This week I’ll throw $2 on two $1 cash game lineups and make one $1 tournament lineup.

Our formula is good, I’ll be surprised if I don’t cash in the cash games.

However, my confidence is growing in our system. But it’s only Week 2. It’s best to remember a few important things.

  1. Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 6.
  2. Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.

I’ve had quite a bit of success in daily fantasy football in a whole, thanks in large part to the amount of work I’m doing for you, Ninja. Thank you. I hope you’ve taken advantage and grown your bankroll here early in the season.

Game-day weather | Projected scores/Las Vegas | Waiver wire gems |

Passing and rushing matchups | All Week 3 content

Week 3 sleepers and values: Draft Kings | FanDuel

Quarterbacks

Early quarterback rankings | Final quarterback rankings

Nick Foles, $6,500, STL vs. PIT — I’m not a big Foles fan. That’s putting it likely. However, he’s been good this season and gets to face the fantasy football wonderland that is the Pittsburgh Steelers “pass defense.”

Teddy Bridgewater, $6,800, MIN vs. SD — The Chargers have been in the bottom third against both the pass and the run this season. Bridgewater has targeted TE Kyle Rudolph 13 times for 10 receptions, top on the Vikings on both counts. Meanwhile, SD has been one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the TE, allowing 64.8 yards per game to the position.

Tyrod Taylor, $7,000 BUF at MIA — The Dolphins have been vulnerable this season and Taylor’s ability to make plays with his legs — he’s going to run for 100 yards soon — makes him one of my favorite plays at FanDuel this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, $6,800, NYJ vs. PHI — When I want to go cheap at QB this week, it’ll be with Foles and Fitzpatrick. We also really like Brandon Marshall this week, making for a good QB-RB stack for your FanDuel tournament lineup.

Running backs

Early running back rankings | Final running back rankings

Latavius Murray, $7,000, OAK at CLE — Cleveland had the second-least efficient run defense in the NFL last season. Oakland’s passing offense seems to be coming around. Those two things mean there could be gaping holes for Murray this week.

Le’Veon Bell, $8,800, PIT at STL — There’s ep putting high-priced players on our sleeper list again. Sorry, but that’s what the numbers say. I crunch them three ways and he keeps rising to the top every time.

Jonathan Stewart, $6,500, CAR vs. NO — This game could get out of hand quick for the Drew Brees-less Saints. Cam Newton should have a nice game for his fantasy owners this week, but Stewart should salt away the game against 2014’s worst run defense, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

Danny Woodhead, $6,400, SD at MIN — The committee got a little muddy last week too because Melvin Gordon was impressive. It’ll be interesting to see how that all pans out. Gordon costs $6,700 this week. He’s not as good a pass-catcher as Woodhead. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon is on this list next week and Woodhead is not.

Adrian Peterson, $8,900, MIN vs. SD — AP had 29 carries and two catches last week. That kind of workload should be expected again. The only hindrance here should be price.

Wide receivers

Early wide receiver rankings | Final wide receiver rankings

Julian Edelman, $7,700, NE vs. JAX — The big concern here is that the Patriots get up by so much there’s no need for a passing game. Luckily for you, me and Edelman’s agent, he catches a lot of short passes which the Patriots use as a sort of running game. I will have a lot of lineups this week featuring Edelman.

Eddie Royal, $4,700, CHI at SEA — You came here looking for value, right? Royal costs $3,000 less than Edelman and almost half as much as Antonio Brown’s $9,300. Of course, Royal has Jimmy Clausen throwing to him AND a Kam Chancellor-led Seahawks defense to contend with. This is a Major League boom/bust pick. I’m not going to make it, but I could see a world where it pays off huge for somebody this week.

Brandon Marshall, $7,400, NYJ vs. PHI — On my personal worksheet, Marshall is among the short list of players I’m considering for both tournaments and cash games this week. The Eagles have allowed 101 yards receiving per game to No. 1 wide receivers.

Allen Hurns, $5,100, JAX at NE — Blake Bortles is a good tournament pick this week as a quarterback expected to get some garbage time in a blowout. Hurns is slightly ahead of teammate Allen Robinson because his salary is $1,500 less. Hurns is a lightning-in-a-bottle type player. Two of his nine receptions have gone for more than 20 yards. Only Robinson (four) has more. Hurns leads the team with 51 yards after the catch.

Allen Robinson, $6,600, JAX at NE — This is our first real value but if he hadn’t flopped the first week Robinson might not be on a value list. He’s 8 catches and 100 yards waiting to happen, especially considering the garbage-time factor in New England. There’s nobody else close to his talent level and opportunity at his price this week.

Antonio Brown, $9,300, PIT at STL — You thought having Bell and Peterson on my running back sleepers list was ridiculous? Haha. I know, $9,300 doesn’t feel like much value, but Brown has the highest ceiling and floor scores based on aggregated projections this week. Even if he meets the lowest expectations in the industry this week he’s still expected to lead wide receivers in fantasy points. Ridiculous.

Tight ends

Early tight end rankings | Final tight end rankings

Kyle Rudolph, $5,300, MIN vs. SD — Like I said in the Bridgewater bit above, the Chargers have been the third-least efficient team against tight ends through two games, according to DVOA, and have allowed 64.8 yards per game to the position. Rudolph will be my top TE at FanDuel this week.

Martellus Bennett, $5,600, CHI at SEA — Another Bear? I know. It’s the price. Bennett is tied with Royal and Matt Forte with 13 targets. Seattle has been the second least efficient team against tight ends so far this season, allowing 61 yards per game. That should change now that Chancellor is back, but it’s still worth noting. Also worth noting: The Seahawks were 18th in efficiency against tight ends last season.

Eric Ebron, $5,100, DET vs. DEN — The Broncos defense has been tough to beat so far this season. They’ve been tough on TEs so far this season, even holding Travis Kelce to 58 yards on four catches last week. However, last season Denver allowed 60.6 yards per game to the position, third most in the NFL.

Travis Kelce, $6,400, KC at GB — Kelce is the second most expensive tight end on the board, but when the top TE is Rob Gronkowski who costs $2,000 more, virtually everyone is a value. We actually have Kelce as a significantly better value than Gronkowski this week.

Greg Olsen, $5,900, CAR vs. NO — Carolina could have a season-making performance this week against the Saints. If they do, Olsen will be a big part o it. New Orleans’ pass defense is second least efficient so far this season and finished 2014 as the sixth least efficient. Olsen is the top red zone receiving threat for the Panthers.

Kickers

Early kicker rankings | Final kicker rankings

Josh Lambo, $4,500, SD at MIN

Matt Bryant, $4,800, ATL at DAL

Josh Scobee, $4,600, PIT at STL

Nick Folk, $4,600, NYJ vs. PHI

Team Defenses

Early team defense rankings | Final team defense rankings

Denver Broncos, $4,600, at DET

Buffalo Bills, $4,500, atMIA

Arizona Cardinals, $4,700, vs. SF

Miami Dolphins, $4,600, vs. BUF





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