2016 Draft Kit

Week 3 projected NFL scores based on Las Vegas odds and over/unders — 2015 fantasy football

A ton of money changes hands in Las Vegas sportsbooks on NFL Sundays.

They have crack teams of number crunchers who are way better than me and you when it comes to guessing likely scores of NFL games.

Many sports fans have joked about a team kicking a late field goal to finish just under or over the betting line, as if the game was fixed or something. And, well, the game bettors play is kind of fixed, because those aforementioned number crunchers are so darn good at what they do.

It would be foolish for the fantasy football community to ignore these experts. We are better when we take the sums of many parts to form our opinions about players and situations, and Las Vegas betting odds need to be one of the primary parts of the equation.

Here are the projected scores using the current (early) over/under and betting odds for Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season:

Week 3 final rankings — QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, K, DEF

Week 3 early rankings — Quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, flex, kicker, defense

Game-day weather | Projected scores/Las Vegas | Waiver wire gems |

Passing and rushing matchups | All Week 3 content

Week 3 sleepers and values: Draft Kings | FanDuel

Week 3 NFL projected scores based on Las Vegas

Day Away Score Home Score Time O/U
Thu Sep 24 Washington Redskins 21 New York Giants 24 8:25 PM 45
Sun Sep 27 Atlanta Falcons 22.25 Dallas Cowboys 21.75 1:00 PM 44
Cincinnati Bengals 21.5 Baltimore Ravens 23 1:00 PM 44.5
Indianapolis Colts 26.25 Tennessee Titans 21.25 1:00 PM 47.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 17 New England Patriots 31 1:00 PM 48
New Orleans Saints 20.25 Carolina Panthers 23.75 1:00 PM 44
Oakland Raiders 18.5 Cleveland Browns 23 1:00 PM 41.5
Philadelphia Eagles 25 New York Jets 22.5 1:00 PM 47.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 24.75 St. Louis Rams 23.25 1:00 PM 48
San Diego Chargers 22 Minnesota Vikings 23.5 1:00 PM 45.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18.25 Houston Texans 21.75 1:00 PM 40
San Francisco 49ers 19 Arizona Cardinals 25 4:05 PM 44
Buffalo Bills 20.5 Miami Dolphins 23 4:25 PM 43.5
Chicago Bears 15.5 Seattle Seahawks 29.5 4:25 PM 45
Denver Broncos 21.5 Detroit Lions 24 8:30 PM 45.5
Mon Sep 28 Kansas City Chiefs 20.75 Green Bay Packers 27.25 8:30 PM 48

 

One thing worth noting that I haven’t really brought up yet this year is that the sportsbooks sometimes modify odds and over/unders to encourage betting on a game or team.

That said, I still think it is a very good factor to consider during fantasy football preparation.

There are some very interesting predictions this week from Las Vegas. The highest point spread is 48, the average is 45.1 and the average odds are -3.3.

What makes that odds average interesting is two -14s on the board — Seattle at home against Chicago and New England at home against Jacksonville. The Packers are also favored by six over the Chiefs on Monday night, The Cardinals are favored by six over the 49ers and the Colts are favored by five over the Titans.

That’ll skew some numbers. So overall, the rest of the field should play pretty tight this week.

Blowouts

In blowouts you want to own the running back and team defense of the winning team. If the team being blown out is at home, you may want to consider their quarterback as a sleeper because they should throw a lot and could be in line for the garbage time bonus.

New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are all at home, so their running back-D/ST combo is in play and there are no garbage-time QBs to target. Note James Starks is still minimum priced at $3,000 and Dion Lewis is still only $4,200 at Draft Kings this week. They’ll likely appear high in our running back rankings and in our Draft Kings sleepers.

Lewis is a bit disturbing thought because this could be a LeGarrette Blount game.

If Marshawn Lynch can’t get off the strugglebus the Seahawks will have to rely on Fred Jackson, who at age 34 is the oldest running back in the NFL. I wonder if Lynch is hurt, if he’s lost a step or if it’s just early season rust, but last week should have been a big one for him. He averaged 2.7 yards per carry.

Tight games

In a blowout, game scripts change. Trailing teams can abandon the run and winning teams can lean on the run to salt the game away. But in close games, with an over/under of less than a field goal in this case, all players should remain viable.

The following games fit that bill: Falcons-Cowboys, Bengals-Ravens, Eagles-Jets, Steelers-Rams, Chargers-Vikings, Bills-Dolphins, Broncos-Lions

Like I said above, there are a lot of potentially close games this week.

So, let’s split a few more hairs to try to get just a little more of an edge than our opponents.

Next, let’s look at a list of teams ranked based on projected score this week. A team that has a high projected score should have more fantasy points to go around on game day.

Projected scores

New England Patriots 31
Seattle Seahawks 29.5
Green Bay Packers 27.25
Indianapolis Colts 26.25
Philadelphia Eagles 25
Arizona Cardinals 25
Pittsburgh Steelers 24.75
Detroit Lions 24
New York Giants 24
Carolina Panthers 23.75
Minnesota Vikings 23.5
St. Louis Rams 23.25
Baltimore Ravens 23
Miami Dolphins 23
Cleveland Browns 23
New York Jets 22.5
Atlanta Falcons 22.25
San Diego Chargers 22
Dallas Cowboys 21.75
Houston Texans 21.75
Denver Broncos 21.5
Cincinnati Bengals 21.5
Tennessee Titans 21.25
Washington Redskins 21
Kansas City Chiefs 20.75
Buffalo Bills 20.5
New Orleans Saints 20.25
San Francisco 49ers 19
Oakland Raiders 18.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18.25
Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Chicago Bears 15.5

Normally I don’t dive into this list too deeply, but there are a couple things I really want to point out.

There are only two teams projected to score 28 or more points (four touchdowns) — the Packers and Seahawks.

There are, however, a whopping eight teams projected to score less than three touchdowns — Chiefs, Bills, Saints, 49ers, Raiders, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Bears.

The Bears have an absurdly low projection, barely more than two touchdowns, in their contest with the Seahawks in Seattle.





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