I’ve played a lot more cash games this season than I’ve played in the past and I contribute that decision to my continued success.
I’ve profited every week so far this season, although not all of the success has come at the same site.
Our first order of business, and our first tip in this series, is to only invest about 10% of your bankroll each week. If you stick to mostly cash games, you can probably push it to 20%.
Your bankroll is the amount of money you are prepared to lose at DFS this season. If you have $20 in your Draft Kings account, but you dump it all this week and plan to put another $20 in next week, your bankroll is at least $40, not $20. I try to keep my account around $100, but I play $40 to $50 per week. Obviously, I would increase that amount if I get a big win, but I always cash out after a big win because I don’t want to get cocky and blow the whole amount I just won.
Let’s not mince words here. This game is difficult. There are expert number crunchers out there better than you and me pulling in more than enough money to live comfortably doing nothing but playing daily fantasy football.
On top of that, you are occasionally just going to have a bad day. That sure-thing running back is going to get hurt. Your quarterback is going to throw three unexpected interceptions in the first quarter. That’s the nature of sports. Unpredictability. That’s why we obsess over it and our fantasy lineups.
But here’s the silver lining: If you use the advice on the site here and you keep that 10% rule in check you are going to profit. You are going to make enough money to keep playing each week and entering a lineup or two into tournaments. That means you get to keep playing for free and keeping taking a shot downfield for big money each week.
That’s how I play. That’s how I recommend everyone plays. It’s very sustainable, even for someone on a meager journalist’s salary like me.
Below you’ll find my cash game recommendations for today. You may not be able to build full lineups with the players at your favorite daily fantasy site. I’m not going to give you full lineups. I think handing out lineups is bad for the industry in a number of ways. I’ll outline them in another column later this season.
Many of the players below are going to be expensive. The most expensive players typically have the highest floors, which is what you’re shooting for in cash games. You want player who, even if they have a bad game, are expected to produce very well.
These players are high-volume running backs, or dual-threat running backs who will be very heavily involved in the offense even if the game script turns into a blowout.
Quarterbacks on high-volume passing offenses belong here. So do wide receivers and tight ends getting tons of targets from their quarterbacks.
This is the player pool I’ll choose from when building my cash game lineups across all sites. In general, you want to pick the best values of the players below at your respective site. But you have to put things in perspective. Aaron Rodgers is significantly cheaper at Draft Kings ($7,900) than he is at FanDuel ($9,200). But how does he fit in relative to the other quarterbacks at that site? FanDuel’s quarterbacks are priced significantly higher than Draft Kings. In this case, however, Rodgers is still a pretty extreme value at just $7,900 at Draft Kings.
The expert consensus projection at Fantasy Pros has Rodgers at around 22 fantasy points, two points more than Russell Wilson at 20 points.
To someone who has never calculated projections, that may sound like an unimpressive difference, but as someone who’s done it many times in the past, that number is pretty significant. For instance, in those same projections across the other skill positions the only other spot where No. 1 is separated by more than two points is at wide receiver, where Julio Jones is favored by three points over Demaryius Thomas. One-point-one points separates Le’Veon Bell and Matt Forte and .8 points separates Greg Olsen from Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce.
At the end of the day the numbers will be very different, but when projecting numbers, the differences end up very small.
OK, here are my cash game suggestions for today. Use our rankings, matchups and value articles below to help you fill out your best lineups, and double up.
Cash game plays for Week 4
Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer, Tyrod Taylor
Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Karlos Williams, Latavius Murray, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Joseph Randle, Melvin Gordon
Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Emmanuel Sanders, A.J. Green, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Maclin
Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay, Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron