Another week of football, another profitable one for me at Draft Kings. I hope you are having the same success.
This week some values seem pretty obvious.
I bet you’ve considered some of the guys on this list. But I figure this may sway some of you in one direction or the other, or, more likely, it will back up what you’re already thinking.
Good luck to us this week. I’m still awaiting a decent tournament win. More on that to come before the Miami kickoff at 9:30 a.m.
My confidence is growing in our system. But it’s only Week 4. It’s best to remember a few important things.
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 6.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
All of that said, I’ve been wagering almost 50% of my bankroll at Draft Kings this year. I’ve had quite a bit of success, thanks in large part to the amount of work I’m doing for you, Ninja. Thank you. I hope you’ve taken advantage and grown your bankroll here early in the season.
Derek Carr, $5,300, OAK at CHI — Carr is not a sneaky value this week. Everybody and there brothers were on them in the early contests. They’ll be on him again Sunday. Since he’s facing the Bears I don’t mind sharing with everyone in cash games, but I’ll have few Carr lineups in tournaments.
Tyrod Taylor, $5,800, BUF vs. NYG — Taylor comes in $500 cheaper than Carr, they’ll probably score around the same number of fantasy points and Taylor was far less owned in the Thursday games. Pair him up with Charles Clay for maximum Bills.
Andy Dalton, $5,900, CIN vs. KC — Dalton is No. 1 on one of my value charts. The Chiefs have allowed 12 touchdowns and more fantasy points than any team in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks. However, I’m not sure we should go all-in on Dalton. DVOA suggests the Chiefs have been one of the most efficient teams against quarterbacks this season. After this week, I’m sure we’ll have more clarity about which number is correct.
Aaron Rodgers, $7,900, GB at SF — Rodgers is our most expensive quarterback this week. Technically you won’t get value from him, however, with the way he’s throwing and the way the 49ers defense is allowing throws, there’s not a safer pick this week. There is concern the Packers may get up by a bunch. But if the Packers are up by four touchdowns at halftime, I figure Rodgers will have had a big part in every one of them.
Cam Newton, $7,000, CAR at TB — This could be a big game on the ground for Newton, but it is a division game and the passing matchup might not be as good or bad as the different metrics tell us. Have some Newton, but don’t go overboard.
Karlos Williams, $3,400, BUF vs. NYG — Early reports indicate Williams may be owned in half the lineups in your tournament this week. That screams “PIVOT!” But I’m not going to abandon him completely. He represents too good of a value. I’ll differentiate elsewhere.
Frank Gore, $4,700, IND vs. JAX — Beware this advice. Gore’s value every week will come from around the goal line. He’s still at a reasonable price, but if Andrew Luck misses this game or leaves early after aggravating his injury, Gore loses quite a bit of value.
Devonta Freeman, $5,200, ATL vs. HOU — Despite a serious salary uptick, Freeman still needs to be considered this week against Houston, who has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than any team in the NFL. We can’t expect Freeman to get 30 carries again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 18 rushes and makes four catches. That should be more than enough to pay for his salary. And if he does get 30 carries, or an absurd number of touchdowns, then you’re looking at a tournament winner.
Latavius Murray, $6,300, OAK at CHI — It’s usually not a good play to start a quarterback, running back and receiver from the same team, which means you may not want to start Carr, Murray and Amari Cooper, who will be our No. 2 wide receiver value. However, this is one of those situation — playing the 2015 Bears — where you can consider it. Carr to Cooper puts the game out of reach, Murray salts away the win with a hefty second-half workload. Murray has handled a lot of his team’s touches this season as well.
Jamaal Charles, $7,600, KC at CIN — Charles is one of my favorite plays this week. DVOA says the Bengals have been good against the run, but they’ve also allowed opposing running backs 64.7 receiving yards per game. If you’ve been playing fantasy long enough you know Charles can have a 10-carry, 25-yard game rushing with 8 catches for 120 yards and a pair of receiving touchdowns. This could be one of them.
Mark Ingram, $6,000, NO vs. DAL — Dallas has been efficient against the run so far this season, but that statistic took a big hit last week, when the Falcons fed Freeman 30 carries against them and he exploded for 141 yards and three TDs. Freeman was second on the team with five catches and 52 yards receiving as well. Ingram is tied for the team lead in receptions (16) and is third in targets (17).
Lance Dunbar, $3,600, DAL vs. NO — That’s a super low salary for the Cowboy’s leading receiver. You read that right. Dunbar leads the Cowboys in receptions (21), receiving yards (215) and receptions of 20 yards or more (3). He’s second in targets behind only Jason Witten, 25-23.
Julio Jones, $9,300, ATL vs. HOU — The Falcons offense is powered by Jones. He’s getting piles of targets and producing with them. Despite his price, he’s going to be owned by a lot of people. Houston has allowed just 43.2 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers. There are a lot of things telling us to go in another direction, but I want three-touchdown players on my roster and Julio fits that bill.
Amari Cooper, $6,300, OAK at CHI — Just like with Carr and Karlos Williams, Cooper is going to to be owned by everybody on Sunday. He may not be a strong tournament play, but I’ll have Cooper in plenty of cash lineups.
Donte Moncrief, $5,000, IND vs. JAX — Like Gore, Moncrief’s value takes a hit if Luck doesn’t play. But it’s a much bigger problem for Moncrief. If Luck does play, there are few passing offenses with the likes of Indianapolis’ volume. It is insane that the No. 2 receiver in that offense is only $5,000.
Randall Cobb, $7,400, GB at SF — After last week’s touchdown bonanza, Cobb will also be in a lot of lineups this week. It makes sense to consider fading him, but his salary is still too low for the top receiving option in a pass-happy offense.
Larry Fitzgerald, $6,500, ARI vs. STL — After scoring five touchdowns in the last two weeks, Fitzgerald will be in a lot of lineups this week. It makes sense to consider fading him, but his salary is till too low for the top receiving option in a pass-happy offense. Yes, the end of this blurb is the same as the one above it. Fitzgerald should be priced at $8,500 the way he’s performed and the way the team has used him (28 targets) so far this season.
Allen Hurns, $3,900, JAX at IND — Hurns is a big play waiting to happen. I’ve said that here before. He’ll be one of a few options available for Blake Bortles and the passing game, which means he should get a few more opportunities for one of those big plays.
Marvin Jones, $3,800, CIN vs. KC — Kansas City has allowed 101.7 yards per game to opposing No. 2 wide receivers. Jones already has two touchdowns this season, picking up where he left off in 2013, when he scored 10. He’s second on the team with catches of 20 yards or more and second in receiving yards despite being third in targets and fourth in receptions.
Allen Robinson, $5,500, JAX at IND — Last week was a disappointment. Four catches on only nine targets. Gross. But here’s why Bill Belichick and the Patriots did everything they could to stop Allen Robinson: He leads the Jaguars in catches (11), targets (28), receiving yards (250), receiving touchdowns (2) and has six plays of more than 20 yards. The Colts will do whatever they can to make sure Vontae Davis lines up opposite of Robinson, but because of his usage, performance and price, Robinson has to be a consideration in our tournament lineups.
A.J. Green, $7,600, CIN vs. KC — Stop me if you’ve heard this one. He had a huge game last week so expect him to be highly owned. Yep, there are going to be a lot of Green lineups out there. And it’s hard to argue. He probably should be $8,500 and he gets a Chiefs secondary that’s allowed 117.7 receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers.
Charles Clay, $3,300, BUF vs. NYG — New York has allowed 76.6 yards per game to opposing tight ends, third-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Clay was looking like a nifty wide receiver with his open-field moves last week. He’s a key player on an offense that has been way better than a lot of people expected.
Martellus Bennett, $4,500, CHI vs. OAK — Until Alshon Jeffery gets back, there are still two legitimate threats in Chicago — Bennett and Matt Forte. Bennett faces the Raiders this week who, famously by now, gave up more than 100 yards and a touchdown to Gary Barnidge on just five catches.
Eric Ebron, $3,500, DET at SEA — The Seahawks are the third-worst team against the tight end, according to DVOA, and they’ve allowed 61.8 yards per game to them, one of the highest totals in the NFL this season. And Ebron is already third on the Lions in targets and yards and leads with two TDs.
Kyle Rudolph, $3,200, MIN at DEN — If you’re going cheap at TE and Ebron and Clay are just a bit too expensive, Rudolph should work. Denver has been a stout defense so far this season, but they have been susceptible to tight ends. They rank sixth-worst in DVOA against the position. Rudolph has Minnesota’s only receiving touchdown, he leads the team in targets, is tied for first in receptions and is second in receiving yards.
Greg Olsen, $5,400, CAR at TB — This week on one of the DFS Edge podcasts, Al Smizzle (Al Zeidenfeld) said something like, Cam Newton is going to do all the things. When he decides he doesn’t want to do one of the things, he’ll throw it to Greg Olsen for a touchdown.
Early team defense rankings | FINAL team defense rankings
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco
Miami Dolphins vs. New Jersey, in England
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins
St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City