Another week of football, another profitable one for me at Draft Kings. I hope you are having the same success.
This week it seems like there s a pile of value to be had at running back, but we should stick with the big guns at wide receiver while the mid-range quarterbacks present the best value.
Good luck to us this week. I’m still awaiting a decent tournament win. More on that to come before the Miami kickoff at 9:30 a.m.
My confidence is growing in our system. But it’s only Week 5. It’s best to remember a few important things.
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 6.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
All of that said, I’ve been wagering almost 50% of my bankroll at Draft Kings this year. I’ve had quite a bit of success, thanks in large part to the amount of work I’m doing for you, Ninja. Thank you. I hope you’ve taken advantage and grown your bankroll here early in the season.
Carson Palmer, $6,600, ARI @ DET — The Lions aren’t very good against the pass, especially against WR2s. We’ve been waiting for John Brown to break out. Maybe Palmer-to-Brown is the top stack this week.
Philip Rivers, $6,200, SD vs. PIT — Rivers is on an historic passing pace with eight touchdowns and a league-leading 1,248 yards through four games.
Matt Ryan, $6,700, ATL vs. WAS — Washington is decent against the run, but struggles against the pass, especially against WR2s. With Julio Jones hobbled, this could be a good week to look to Leonard Hankerson or Roddy White.
Tom Brady, $7,800, NE @ DAL — New England will score 50 points. Brady will have a big part in that. It is known.
Tyrod Taylor, $5,800, BUF @ TEN — Taylor was a bit of let down last week. Now he faces the second-most efficient defense in the league against the pass. But at his current price, his ability to run and the emergence of Charles Clay, Taylor is a tournament option.
Aaron Rodgers, $7,900, GB vs. STL — Trails only Brady in expected performance this week, largely because St. Louis can disrupt quarterbacks.
Blake Bortles, $5,100, JAX @ TB — I was only going to post the top three quarterbacks this week, but if you want super cheap you need Taylor or Bortles. Tampa Bay has been torched by No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. Bortles has excellent targets in both positions.
Todd Gurley, $4,300, STL @ GB — The likely game script here is that St. Louis will trail. However, we need to have the expectation that Gurley will be script-proof. His price is so low, you need to have him in a tournament or two in case last week was only the beginning.
Dion Lewis, $4,800, NE @ DAL — Read or heard someone last week who said Lewis is what the Patriots wanted Shane Vereen to become. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield means he only leaves the game after the Pats are up by 30 points.
Le’Veon Bell, $8,500, PIT @ SD — Bell is expensive but he should get 30 opportunities a game as long as Ben Roethlisberger out. He can do a lot with 30, especially against a defense that is fourth-worst against pass-catching wide receivers and seventh-worst against the run this season.
Jamaal Charles, $7,800, KC vs. CHI — Like I said in the projected scores column, Charles is a stud running back, at home in a game his team is expected to win by 9 or more points.
T.J. Yeldon, $4,400, JAX @ TB — Yeldon’s price is ridiculously low even though he’s getting a bunch of opportunities each game. He is on both my RB floor and ceiling charts this week, something I took into consideration when I started him in the Millionaire Maker last week. He was only 2.3% owned and scored 15.9 points.
Danny Woodhead, $4,600, SD vs. PIT — As I said in the Rivers blurb, the Chargers passing attack is on an historic pace. Woodhead is an excellent receiving back with a sub-$5,000 salary.
Eddie Lacy, $6,700, GB vs. STL — It’s not a plus matchup for Lacy, but he’s an elite running back with a sub-$7,000 salary.
Matt Forte, $7,000, CHI @ KC — Like Lacy, Forte is elite but his salary doesn’t reflect it, making him a value regardless of matchup.
Justin Forsett, $5,800, BAL vs. CLE — There are going to be a lot of people starting Forsett this week. Historically, the Ravens thrash the Browns in the running game and Forsett and that run game seemed to be on track last week.
Devonta Freeman, $6,300, ATL vs. WAS — Freeman’s salary jumped again to $6,300, and the matchup is tough, but he’s probably about as close to a lock for one touchdown this week as any other player on the board. He’s also a lock for 3-4 catches. There’s 10 points. So he only needs 80 all-purpose yards to make value in a cash game.
Julio Jones, $9,200, ATL vs. WAS — This one is strictly a tournament play this week. Word this morning is that Julio’s hamstring won’t be 100%. There’s also the Washington vs. No. 2 wide receivers things I’ve been talking about in just about every post this week. However, Jones is such an elite talent and an important part of the offense, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get 200 yards and three touchdowns.
Demaryius Thomas, $8,100, DEN @ OAK — This should be a plus game for Peyton Manning and his elite wide receivers.
Julian Edelman, $7,000, NE @ DAL — Edelman is one of the safest plays in fantasy football.
Randall Cobb, $7,500, GB vs. STL — Disappointed owners last week, making him a potential sneaky play this week.
Jeremy Maclin, $6,000, KC vs. CHI — If Alex Smith is going bananas, this is the week and Maclin should benefit.
Larry Fitzgerald, $6,800, ARI at DET — Fitzgerald has received and converted targets like an $8,000 receiver so far this season.
Allen Robinson, $5,500, JAX at TB — Elite talent, elite matchup, Dollar General store price.
Keenan Allen, $7,200, SD vs. PIT — Did I mention that San Diego is on an historic passing pace? Allen is Rivers’ top receiver.
Allen Hurns, $4,500, JAX at TB — Hurns isn’t quite as elite as Robinson, but he can score long touchdowns and should get a boatload of volume. He also costs $1,000 less than his teammate.
Leonard Hankerson, $4,000, ATL vs. WAS — Hankerson is one of my favorite plays today. WAS is terrible against WR2s. Roddy White’s complaints may mean targets may get distributed a little differently, but the proof is in the production pudding and Hankerson has done more with every opportunity so far this season.
Odell Beckham Jr., $9,000, NYG vs. SF — Everybody and there brother should consider Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. against the 49ers this week, regardless of price.
Willie Snead, $3,000, NO at PHI — Snead has emerged as Drew Brees’ favorite target this season and yet he’s still minimum price. He needs four catches for 50 yards, 9 fantasy points, to make cash game value at his current price. He’s only been under nine fantasy points once this season in PPR, that was Week one when his lone catch went for 63 yards.
Martellus Bennett, $5,000, CHI at KC — With Jay Cutler back, Bennett gets a bump in production that already wasn’t representative of his salary.
Owen Daniels, $2,700, DEN at OAK — Most owned player of the week? Everybody, EVERYBODY knows the Raiders couldn’t stop a sentient buffalo wing if it was lined up as a tight end.
Charles Clay, $4,100, BUF at TEN — The Titans are the second-most efficient team against the pass this season, but no team has been worse at stopping tight ends, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. That means even if Tyrod Taylor struggles to meet expectations, Clay should have a big day.
Rob Gronkowski, 7,500, NE at DAL — Don’t think of that $7,500 as a tight end price, think of it as a wide receiver price. He’s a top-7 or top-8 wide receiver with 3-TD potential each week you can start at tight end.
Richard Rodgers, $2,900, GB vs. STL — Rodgers isn’t great, but he’s a starting tight end in a high-volume passing game with a fantasy defense price.
Jared Cook, $3,000, STL at GB — Like Rodgers, I’m not a huge fan of Cook. However, his price makes him intriguing as does his teams likelihood of trailing by three touchdowns by halftime. Cook leads the Rams in targets (21), is tied for first in both catches (14) and touchdowns (3) and is second in receiving yards (161).
Team defense (D/ST)
Green Bay Packers vs. STL, $3,100
Arizona Cardinals at DET, $3,800
Denver Broncos at OAK, $3,600
Buffalo Bills at TEN, $3,400
Jacksonville Jaguars at TB, $2,700