Last week was my most profitable of the season on FanDuel. I started the season with $1.41 in my account. Last week, I cashed for $7 in a $1 tournament for an exponential gain.
Small wins in cash games allow you to maintain and slowly grow your bankroll while posting one tournament lineup a week. When that tournament lineup hits you get a big growth.
While Draft Kings rankings suggested we go with value, our FanDuel formula says pay up for running backs and take some chances at wide receiver.
Good luck to us this week. I’m still awaiting a decent tournament win.
My confidence is growing in our system. But it’s only Week 5. It’s best to remember a few important things.
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 6.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
All of that said, I’ve been wagering almost 50% of my bankroll at Draft Kings this year. I’ve had quite a bit of success, thanks in large part to the amount of work I’m doing for you, Ninja. Thank you. I hope you’ve taken advantage and grown your bankroll here early in the season.
Alex Smith, $6,900, KC vs. CHI — If Smith is going to have a big week this season it’s probably going to happen this week — and he’s priced just $400 more than Michael Vick.
Michael Vick, $6,500, PIT at SD — Vick hasn’t done much to instill confidence in us this season, but he probably understands the offense better and has weapons. All that coupled with his price — $2,300 less than Tom Brady — makes him an interesting consideration.
Matt Ryan, $8,300, ATL vs. WAS — Washington is decent against the run, but struggles against the pass, especially against WR2s. With Julio Jones hobbled, this could be a good week to look to Leonard Hankerson or Roddy White.
Philip Rivers, $7,500, SD vs. PIT — Rivers is on an historic passing pace with eight touchdowns and a league-leading 1,248 yards through four games. Rivers is my favorite play at FanDuel this week.
Carson Palmer, $6,600, ARI @ DET — The Lions aren’t very good against the pass, especially against WR2s. We’ve been waiting for John Brown to break out. Maybe Palmer-to-Brown is the top stack this week.
Marcus Mariota, $7,400, TEN vs. BUF — The Bills have allowed the third most points in the NFL to quarterbacks this season. Mariota is still a rookie, so this is no lock, but he has shown superstar potential.
Tom Brady, $7,800, NE @ DAL — New England will score 50 points. Brady will have a big part in that. It is known.
Le’Veon Bell, $9,000, PIT @ SD — Bell is expensive but he should get 30 opportunities a game as long as Ben Roethlisberger out. He can do a lot with 30, especially against a defense that is fourth-worst against pass-catching wide receivers and seventh-worst against the run this season.
Jamaal Charles, $9,100, KC vs. CHI — Like I said in the projected scores column, Charles is a stud running back, at home in a game his team is expected to win by 9 or more points.
Danny Woodhead, $6,000, SD vs. PIT — As I said in the Rivers blurb, the Chargers passing attack is on an historic pace. Woodhead is an excellent receiving back with a very reasonable salary on FanDuel.
Eddie Lacy, $7,600, GB vs. STL — It’s not a plus matchup for Lacy, but he’s an elite running back with a sub-$8,000 salary.
Anthony Dixon, $4,500, BUF at TEN — Our first true value is minimum-priced. He should pair well with one of the elite backs above. The Bills running back ranks are decimated right now.
Justin Forsett, $7,200, BAL vs. CLE — There are going to be a lot of people starting Forsett this week. Historically, the Ravens thrash the Browns in the running game and Forsett and that run game seemed to be on track last week.
C.J. Spiller, $5,500, NO at PHI — Spiller burst onto the scene last week with that game-winning 80-yard TD. It would surprise me if the Saints don’t give him ample opportunities to replicate that feat this week.
Matt Forte, $8,400, CHI @ KC — Forte is less of a value here than at Draft Kings, but he’s still an amazing player whose talent demands the ball in the passing game and running game, making him an excellent play in any game ranging from blowout win to blowout loss.
Devonta Freeman, $7,600, ATL vs. WAS — Freeman’s salary jumped again and the matchup is tough, but he’s probably about as close to a lock for one touchdown this week as any other player on the board. He’s also a lock for 3-4 catches. He doesn’t ned much more than that to pay off his salary.
Dion Lewis, $6,900, NE @ DAL — Read or heard someone last week who said Lewis is what the Patriots wanted Shane Vereen to become. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield means he only leaves the game after the Pats are up by 30 points.
Julio Jones, $9,200, ATL vs. WAS — This one is strictly a tournament play this week. Word this morning is that Julio’s hamstring won’t be 100%. There’s also the Washington vs. No. 2 wide receivers things I’ve been talking about in just about every post this week. However, Jones is such an elite talent and an important part of the offense, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get 200 yards and three touchdowns.
Allen Robinson, $6,300, JAX at TB — Elite talent, elite matchup, Dollar General store price.
Julian Edelman, $7,700, NE @ DAL — Edelman is one of the safest plays in fantasy football.
Kendall Wright, $5,900, TEN vs. BUF — Like we said above, quarterbacks have scored the third-most fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills so far this season. If Mariota has a big day it’s likely Wright does too, and at under $6,000 with FanDuel’s tight pricing you need to own Wright if they both go off.
Pierre Garcon, $6,200 WAS at ATL — This game has the third-highest over/under of the week. Considering Jordan Reed’s concussion, I expect Garcon to get a few more targets than usual. He already leads the team in targets, touchdown catches and is tied for first in receptions.
Percy Harvin, $5,400, BUF at TEN — It seems Harvin will be better when Sammy Watkins is in the lineup, however, the Titans have been trashed by No. 2 wide receivers this season, according to DVOA.
Larry Fitzgerald, $7,400, ARI at DET — Fitzgerald has received and converted targets like an $8,500 receiver so far this season.
Demaryius Thomas, $8,100, DEN @ OAK — This should be a plus game for Peyton Manning and his elite wide receivers.
James Jones, $6,400, GB vs. STL — He has seven plays of 20 or more yards, leads the Packers with 317 yards and is tied for first with four TDs. But he’s almost $2,000 cheaper than Randall Cobb ($8,200).
Willie Snead, $5,300, NO at PHI — Snead has emerged as Drew Brees’ favorite target this season and yet he’s still the lowest priced player on this list.
Martellus Bennett, $5,900, CHI at KC — With Jay Cutler back, Bennett gets a bump in production that already wasn’t representative of his salary.
Owen Daniels, $4,900, DEN at OAK — Most owned player of the week? Everybody, EVERYBODY knows the Raiders couldn’t stop a sentient buffalo wing if it was lined up as a tight end.
Charles Clay, $5,700, BUF at TEN — The Titans are the second-most efficient team against the pass this season, but no team has been worse at stopping tight ends, according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. That means even if Tyrod Taylor struggles to meet expectations, Clay should have a big day.
Jason Witten, $5,700, DAL vs. NE — The Cowboys are a short-pass heavy team with Brandon Weeden at quarterback. That means extra volume for one of the highest-volume tight ends in the league.
Antonio Gates, $5,500, SD vs. PIT — Gates returns from suspension to an offense that is humming. He could score three goal-line TDs or merely be a part of the offense. That makes him a good tournament play but a sketchy cash game option.
Delanie Walker, $5,400, TEN vs. BUF — Tight ends have scored just nine fantasy points per game this season against Buffalo, but they’ve caught 24 passes, fourth-most in the NFL. If Walker ends up with six catches, he should be able to drive that fantasy points needle up a few spots this week.
Cairo Santos, $4,600, KC vs. CHI
Matt Bryant, $4,800, ATL vs. WAS
Josh Lambo, $4,500, SD vs. PIT
Josh Brown, $4,700, NYG vs. SF
Justin Tucker, $4,900, BAL vs. CLE
Stephen Gostkowski, $5,000, NE at DAL
Zach Hocker, $4,500, NO at PHI
Team defense (D/ST)
New York Giants vs SF, $4,300
Baltimore Ravens vs. CLE, $4,500
Denver Broncos at OAK, $4,900
Jacksonville Jaguars at TB, $4,300