“Another week of football, another profitable one for me at Draft Kings. I hope you are having the same success.”
That’s me quoting me from last week. Different week, same story. I’m almost at the point where I need to withdraw funds. When those funds get too high I get cocky. Don’t go crazy, just win cash games, baby.
Over the course of the week I talk about all of the players I use in my lineups at Draft Kings, Yahoo and FanDuel. It’s a cumulative thing, so check out our matchups posts and rankings and on Sunday I’ll post my tournament-only and GPP plays of the week.
This week there are a pile of interesting plays, especially if some of these injuries pan out certain ways. We can’t rely too heavily on them, so you’ll want to double check those aforementioned Sunday articles and our final rankings which will also post Sunday.
My confidence continues to grow in our system, however it’s important to keep a few things in mind:
- Only play 10% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is the amount you are going to play with this year. Wagering more than 10 percent sets you up to go bankrupt by week 8.
- Always follow rule No. 1, unless you find some serious overlay. And even then, don’t go overboard. We’re all going to have bad weeks, even when we do everything right. Don’t spend so much that you can’t recover from it the following week. This allows us to brush off a bad week and move on to the next.
All of that said, I’ve been wagering almost 50% of my bankroll at Draft Kings this year. I’ve had quite a bit of success, thanks in large part to the amount of work I’m doing for you, Ninja. Thank you. I hope you’ve taken advantage and grown your bankroll here early in the season.
Here are my Draft Kings sleepers and value plays for this week.
Carson Palmer, $6,600, ARI at PIT — Over the last two seasons, 11 games, Palmer is averaging 267 yards, 2.2 touchdowns and .5 interceptions a game. Those are Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers numbers. But you get them at a $1,100 price break.
Andy Dalton, $5,700, CIN at BUF — Dalton is the top fantasy quarterback of the season. The Bills haven’t been able to stop quarterbacks. Yes, Buffalo is at home, but Dalton is still a play until he proves us otherwise.
Tom Brady, $8,100, NE at IND — Angry Brady+reeling defense=all the fantasy points
Jay Cutler, $5,200, CHI at DET — Averaging 266 yards and two touchdowns per game in the last two and gets a great matchup against the Lions this week.
Aaron Rodgers, $7,700, GB vs. SD — GB expected score only 1.5 points less than the Angry Brady Patriots.
Sam Bradford, $6,000, PHI vs. NYG — Giants are allowing 302 yards passing per game this season. Bradford has back-to-back 300 yard games.
Dion Lewis, $5,800, NE at IND — I’m surprised Lewis’ price is still so low. He’s almost a must-start, especially in cash games.
Arian Foster, $7,000, HOU at JAC — Guess who had 29 touches last week, is off the injury report and gets to face the Jaguars this week?
Danny Woodhead, $4,700, SD at GB — Like Lewis, Woodhead is a key component in a pass-heavy offense, at a very discounted price.
Le’Veon Bell, $8,500, PIT vs. ARI — Would Bell appear on this “values” list if his price was $9,500? Maybe. He’s an elite talent who is the primary focus of the offense. Michael Vick limits his top-shelf upside, so I wouldn’t consider him in a tournament.
Matt Forte, $7,100, CHI at DET — The most important part of the Bears offense, Forte is a do-it-all back at a surprisingly inexpensive price.
Giovani Bernard, $4,600, CIN at BUF — Risky play against Buffalo. I don’t expect much on the ground, but Bernard gets a lot of work in the passing game.
Eddie Lacy, $6,300, GB vs. SD — Lacy struggled to start last season too. This week he gets the best he could have asked for. I expect a big week for Lacy.
Adrian Peterson, $7,600, MIN vs. KC — Without Jamaal Charles (IR-knee), I expect the Chiefs offense to sputter, which means a few more touches for Peterson. That could mean a few more touchdowns for a running back of AP’s caliber.
DeAndre Hopkins, $7,700, HOU at JAC — There isn’t a ton of value on this list, but there is value at quarterback, running back and tight end making these mid-priced guys — well Hopkins is upper-mid — very rosterable this week. Tons of targets=fantasy points, in Hopkins case. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the most-owned WR this week.
Julian Edelman, $7,600, NE at IND — Edelman may compete with Hopkins for that most-owned crown. Again, tons of targets and catches here. The big difference is that the Patriots are expected to score 10 more real football points, making Edelman more likely to get in the end zone.
Larry Fitzgerald, $7,000, ARI at PIT — Hey, guess who’s getting a ton of targets and doing a lot with them? It’s a theme for these great WRs in the $7,000-$7,900 range.
A.J. Green, $7,600, CIN at BUF — See above, except Green is an elite receiver who can put up $8,000-level numbers.
Randall Cobb, $7,300, GB vs. SD — Aaron Rodgers favorite target is the ninth-highest priced WR. San Diego has been good against WR1s this season, so Cobb is probably only a GPP play.
Allen Robinson, $5,900, JAC vs. HOU — Robinson should be in that $7,000-$7,600 range like the WRs above but he’s still only $5,900. So Robinson must be considered regardless of matchup for cash and tournament lineups.
Allen Hurns, $5,000, JAC vs. HOU — I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Blake Bortles, Robinson, Hurns lineup win a big tournament this season. Hurns, like Robinson is too low-priced to ignore, but I consider him more of a tournament play.
Keenan Allen, $7,100, SD at GB — This game could be a shootout but in either case I expect the Chargers to throw the ball a lot late, which means more opportunities for its best receiver.
Anquan Boldin, $4,300, SF vs. BAL — Oh, that price. Oh, that pass defense. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opposing No. 1 wide receivers and the second-most to No. 2 wide receivers.
Jordan Cameron, $3,000, MIA at TEN — A risky play? Absolutely, but you’re only giving up $3,000 to roster him. Cameron has proven he can be elite when healthy. There’s new leadership in Miami, Cameron may benefit
Martellus Bennett, $4,800, CHI at DET — As long as Jay Cutler is the quarterback and Bennett is $3,000 cheaper than the No. 1 TE, he’s a great value.
Rob Gronkowski, $7,600, NE at IND — Gronkowski is a must-consider every week regardless of matchup. For many people he is a must-start every week in cash games. Any key cog in an offense expected to score 30+ points is viable. Consider Gronkowski a wide receiver instead of a tight end, then he fits right in with our upper-mid WR values above.
Antonio Gates, $4,600, SD at GB — Gates returned with authority last week. I don’t expect another 85 yards and two touchdowns this week, but it’s possible. At the least he should easily pay off his salary.
Richard Rodgers, $3,100, GB vs. SD — After Andrew Quarless’ sprained MCL, Rodgers is the last man standing in Green Bay’s tight end ranks. He is already second on the team in targets (25), tied for second in catches (19), third in receiving yards (155) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (2). Considering his near minimum price, we have to consider Rodgers.
There are a lot of potential defense options this week, including some super cheap options. I’ll probably go mostly with the Jets, Broncos and Packers, but in terms of values, this is how they rank:
New York Jets, $3,100, vs WAS
Cleveland Browns, $2,200, vs. DEN
Detroit Lions, $2,500, vs. CHI
Cincinnati Bengals, $3,000, at BUF
Minnesota Vikings, $2,900, vs. KC
Denver Broncos, $3,700, at CLE
Green Bay Packers, $3,200, vs. SD