Regardless of what I write here, you need to start Le’Veon Bell because he’s Le’Veon Bell.
You may be in a situation where you have to start Jonathan Stewart, whether he has a good matchup or not.
This list is meant to point out waiver wire players who may provide an edge you need with your starter on bye and point out players we need to consider in daily fantasy sports.
This format is different from how it’s been so far this season. I hope you like it.
To come up with these rankings, I compared Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average to fantasy points allowed to determine the strongest matchups. In theory, and on paper, the players who intersect on both lists provide the best/worst matchups. The other players to consider list are on one of the two lists.
The other players list should not be ignored. I’m definitely going to have some Arian Foster, Devonta Freeman and T.J. Yeldon in my daily fantasy lineups this week.
The full charts for both rankings are at the bottom of the article.
Top rushing matchups*
Eddie Lacy, GB vs. SD
C.J. Anderson/Ronnie Hillman, DEN vs. CLE
Other players to consider: Arian Foster**, Danny Woodhead/Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram/C.J. Spiller/Khiry Robinson, Javorious Allen/Justin Forsett***, Matt Forte, T.J. Yeldon, Devonta Freeman, Antonio Andrews/Bishop Sankey, Charcandrick West/Knile Davis
*-This list may seem short, but remember, good run defenses are much better at stopping the run than bad defenses are at allowing runs. However, like I said above, I will consider many of the players in the consider list for my daily fantasy teams this week.
**-Foster is the one player across both passing and rushing matchups who appears on one start list and one sit list. Jacksonville is ninth-most effective in the NFL at stopping the run, according to DVOA, but have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. I put him on this list because I recommend starting him.
***-At this point we’re not sure if Justin Forsett or Javorious Allen will start this week. The prices — and talent — vary greatly. However, if Allen gets the kind of volume of carries Forsett got he’s a must start this week against a poor 49ers defense.
Worst rushing matchups
Jonathan Stewart, CAR vs. SEA
Alfred Morris/Matt Jones, WAS vs. NYJ
Shane Vereen/Rashad Jennings, NYG vs. PHI
Andre Ellington/Chris Johnson/David Johnson, ARI vs. PIT
Le’Veon Bell, PIT vs. ARI
Other players to consider avoiding: Ryan Mathews/DeMarco Murray/Darren Sproles, Chris Ivory, Lamar Miller, Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill, Frank Gore
DVOA full chart****
|Le’Veon Bell||PIT||ARI||Eddie Lacy||GB||SD|
****-DVOA only registers seven teams on the positive side of its rushing efficiency chart. Three of them, Tennessee, Chicago and San Francisco, have a ranking of 2% or less. For comparison, the most efficient defense, the Jets have a DVOA of -33.4%.
Fantasy points allowed full chart
|Lamar Miller||MIA||TEN||J. Allen/Forsett||BAL||SF|
|Frank Gore||IND||NE||T.J. Yeldon||JAX||HOU|
|Carlos Hyde||SF||BAL||Devonta Freeman||ATL||NO|