2016 Draft Kit

Wide receiver 1 matchups for conference championship weekend: Sleepers and busts

There are very few great matchups this week and quite a few bad matchups. That’s the price fantasy owners must pay during playoff football season.

It’s cool though. There are still values to find. Using matchups to build winning lineups is not the one key to winning at sites like FanDuel and Draft Kings. But used as part of a greater knowledge base they can lead to huge gains.

I built a lineup using just the top matchups across the list and was pleasantly surprised with the results.

Just like last week I’m going to present the matchups for all teams and positions still alive in the playoffs. In the preseason we added and subtracted some statistics in cases where there were strong good and bad matchups to accentuate the players we could expect to do better or worse than they might normally.

All players except kickers and defenses will be ranked based on reverse Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, a Football Outsiders’ exclusive statistic which tries to eliminate outliers and give us a true sense of how a defense performs against each position.

I’ve also included the DVOA rank (again top-10 and bottom-10 rankings should really be noted). For quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, kickers and defenses, I’ve included PPR fantasy points per game allowed by the opposing defense in the last five games. For wide receivers I’ve included targets and yards allowed.

Conference championship boom or bust projections

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec.)

Thanks for reading all season. If you have any interest in other daily fantasy sports — and you should, especially for NBA games — please check back this week. I’m going to have some fresh content coming soon. I’ve entered a pile of low-end tournaments in the last week, gathering information and seeing how the chips fall. I’m starting to feel confident enough to write about them.

Wide receiver 1 matchups

Jermaine Kearse vs. Green Bay — 14th DVOA, 8.9 targets for 71.5 yards allowed this season — Kearse is the least expensive option among WR1s and he’s got the best matchup. I’ll have him in a bunch of lineups.

Julian Edelman vs. Indianapolis — 9th DVOA, 8.2 targets for 71.5 yards allowed this season — Those 8.2 targets should turn into extra points for Edelman at PPR sites like Draft Kings. The Patriots are also expected to have a monster game. I’ll have quite a few shares of Edelman this week.

T.Y. Hilton vs. New England — 7th DVOA, 7.9 targets-64.5 yards allowed this season — Revis Island isn’t always a lonely place, but it’s enough of a concern for me to limit my exposure to Hilton this week. Revis and the Patriots held Hilton to 24 yards on three catches despite seven targets in a regular season meeting.

Jordy Nelson vs. Seattle — 4th DVOA, 6.2 targets for 41.2 yards allowed this season — If I’m going to pick one player this week to make a mockery of the matchups it’s probably Jordy Nelson. He’s got a 10-out-of-10 in the big play category and I have a feeling the Packers will find ways to get him open and get him the ball. However, I am going to be cautious. The Seahawks have allowed just one 100-yard receiver since Week 6.

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