2016 Draft Kit

Wide receiver 1 matchups for the divisional round: Sleepers and busts

In the regular season, the matchups highlighted here included only the top 10 and bottom 10 matchups in the league.

Now that we have narrowed the field down to only the best teams the matchups are a lot less clear. There’s only one good matchup at a lot of positions. Last week, I limited these matchups to just good and two bad matchups per position.

This week I’m going to list them all. Despite not having a lot of great matchups, we still need to fill out a full roster. And there’s going to be a lot of variance. Maybe a middle-of-the-pack matchup is all you care about to make a WR2 startable in your lineup.

So, with that out of the way, let’s talk about presentation. I’m not going to give you good and bad matchups this week. You get one list per position, eight-ish players. They are listed in order of best to worst. The best-to-worst listing is based on Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Averages for QB, RB, WR1, WR2, WR3/4, TE and RB (Rec.). K and DEF are ranked based on season-long schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Matchups: QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3/4 | TE | K | DEF | RB (rec)

Divisional round boom-or-bust projections

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Wide receiver 1

Doug Baldwin vs. Carolina — The Panthers allow wide receiver 1s to gain 65.3 yards per game. They rank 6th in DVOA against them. I consider Baldwin to be Carolina’s No. 1, but depending on how the Panthers play it, Jermaine Kearse could take advantage of this matchup.

Julian Edelman vs. Baltimore — This is the best wide receiver matchups of the week. The Ravens allow 84.1 yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers. They rank 14th in DVOA and have given up the 10th-most fantasy points (36.0 per game) to wide receivers in the last five weeks.

Jordy Nelson vs. Dallas — The Cowboys allow just 57.5 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers.

Dez Bryant vs. Green Bay — DVOA shows Green Bay at 19th, just below Dallas. But unlike the Cowboys, the Packers allow quite a few yards per game to WR1s — 71.5 per game. That’s the second-highest total among teams remaining in the playoffs.

Demaryius Thomas vs. Indianapolis — The Colts give up just 59.4 yards per game to opposing No. 1s. They’ve also given up the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the last five weeks (27.4 per game).

Steve Smith vs. New England — The Patriots allow 64.5  yards per game to WR1s. It is believed Darrelle Revis will be on Steve Smith this week, making him a must-avoid. I’ll still have him in a .25-cent lineup, again, because variance is going to be so high this week, but I would recommend you don’t invest heavily.

T.Y. Hilton vs. Denver — The Broncos rank 28th in DVOA and allow just 51.4 yards per game to WR1s. Hilton can’t have three bad drops against aDenver team that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the last five weeks (18.7 per game).

Kelvin Benjamin vs. Seattle — The Seahawks allow just 41.2 yards per game to opposing WR1s.

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