We should have high confidence in these matchups.
We’re only talking about matchups that meet good/bad matchup criteria for the whole season, the last five weeks and the last three weeks. If a matchup doesn’t fit in all three categories, then it has to have a significant number in the last-five-weeks and last-three-weeks.
The players are ordered based on season-long adjusted fantasy points allowed. The numbers next to the names are fantasy points allowed by position and the NFL rank in that category in the last five weeks. For receivers we’ve included the yards the defense has allowed per game to that receiver type.
Top WR1 matchups
T.Y. Hilton vs. Houston — 84.6 yards per game, 1st — The Texans also allowed 43.7 PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.
Kelvin Benjamin vs. Tampa Bay — 82.5 yards per game, 2nd — I talked about Benjamin in the intro to our wide receiver projections. QB Derek Anderson isn’t as much of a downgrade as you might think and he found Benjamin six times for 72 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
Alshon Jeffery vs. New Orleans — 81.1 yards per game, 4th
Dez Bryant vs. Philadelphia — 80.2 yards per game, 7th
Sammy Watkins vs. Green Bay — 76.8 yards per game, 9th
Worst WR1 matchups
Anquan Boldin vs. Seattle — 37.3 yards, 1st
Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins vs. Indianapolis — 52.9 yards, 2nd — Johnson is questionable but going through the concussion protocol. The last report I saw said he was on the doubtful side of questionable. That moves DeAndre Hopkins into this spot.
Jordy Nelson vs. Buffalo — 54.1 yards, 3rd
Josh Gordon vs. Cincinnati — 55.7 yards, 5th
Doug Baldwin vs. San Francisco — 55.9 yards, 6th